Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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U

Ultrairon

Mar 20, 2021
2
312
1,230
djpbaltimore said:
Checking back to see if COVID has peaked in Arkansas yet. Nope. Florida hospitalization numbers are also eyebrow raising. I've said it before, but this winter is going to be really bad for the unvaccinated in the US.

apnews.com

Arkansas reports new record for COVID-19 hospitalizations

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — Arkansas on Monday set a new record for the number of people in the state hospitalized because of COVID-19 as its coronavirus surge continued. The state reported its COVID-19 hospitalizations rose by 103, its biggest one-day increase, to 1,376.
apnews.com apnews.com
Click to expand...
Check the CDC data again. It has peaked is coming back down. Also those Florida numbers got revised as the CDC doubled the count and have people in the media all happy. It appears you are happy about this.
BTW national vax demographic numbers are not getting any better why not point that out? What are the media afraid of?
 
J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
6,224
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Ultrairon said:
Check the CDC data again. It has peaked is coming back down. Also those Florida numbers got revised as the CDC doubled the count and have people in the media all happy. It appears you are happy about this.
BTW national vax demographic numbers are not getting any better why not point that out? What are the media afraid of?
Click to expand...
I don't know about all media, but our local paper, PBS News Hour, and ABC World News all talked about vax numbers and PBS has even done 'focus' stories on demo groups and why. Last night was the descendants of the syphilis murders and why they would be fearful.
 
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D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,800
16,680
Ultrairon said:
Check the CDC data again. It has peaked is coming back down. Also those Florida numbers got revised as the CDC doubled the count and have people in the media all happy. It appears you are happy about this.
BTW national vax demographic numbers are not getting any better why not point that out? What are the media afraid of?
Click to expand...
Yesterday, they had 2940 new cases which is well above the 7 day average of 2339. The 7 day average on August 5th was 2096, so I don't see how you can claim a downward trend in the data. It is possible that they are nearing their peak outbreak. If that is the case, they may start to see an ease in hospitalizations in ~10 days.

If you lived in Florida, would the following graph look good to you?
Happy?.... No.
Angry?.... Yes.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425672343506997248
View: https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1425672343506997248


We know the people who are not getting the vaccine and it is skewed towards white people without college degrees. A problem in places like AR where most of the people are white, and many lack college degrees.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Are white people without college degrees less likely to be vaccinated than BIPOC without college degrees? Without taking education into account, I remember some months ago reading that both Blacks and Hispanic were less likely to be vaccinated than Whites, so I'm wondering if that was an education effect or just plain wrong.
 
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J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
6,224
2,695
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Netserk said:
Are white people without college degrees less likely to be vaccinated than BIPOC without college degrees? Without taking education into account, I remember some months ago reading that both Blacks and Hispanic were less likely to be vaccinated than Whites, so I'm wondering if that was an education effect or just plain wrong.
Click to expand...
This doesn't use education, but here is one graph (more linked below):


www.kff.org

Latest Data on COVID-19 Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity

KFF is collecting and analyzing data on COVID-19 vaccinations by race/ethnicity to gain increased insight who is receiving the vaccine and whether some groups are facing disparities in vaccination.
www.kff.org www.kff.org

I can't find the data (dj, did you share it?), but there was a poll published in mid June that indicated that none of the white people who dropped out of HS got vaccinated, and less than 20% of HS (only) grads (something like 25,000 polled). Sorry for the imprecise memory here, but low %.

EDIT: I realized that I said 'paper' instead of 'poll', and then when I got here to change it also noticed that I typed July instead of June.
 
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D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,800
16,680
Netserk said:
Are white people without college degrees less likely to be vaccinated than BIPOC without college degrees? Without taking education into account, I remember some months ago reading that both Blacks and Hispanic were less likely to be vaccinated than Whites, so I'm wondering if that was an education effect or just plain wrong.
Click to expand...
I don't think that is true. For Asians, the level of education doesn't matter. It does for the other races. See figure 1. It is data from March, but I don't think opinions have changed much.

And it should be noted that so many of the low vaccination states really have few non-whites living in them.

healthpolicy.usc.edu

Education Is Now a Bigger Factor Than Race in Desire for COVID-19 Vaccine

New survey results show while racial and ethnic differences in vaccine hesitancy persist, level of education now has a stronger effect on people’s willingness to get the vaccine.
healthpolicy.usc.edu healthpolicy.usc.edu
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
29,042
4,873
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djpbaltimore said:
I don't think that is true. For Asians, the level of education doesn't matter. It does for the other races. See figure 1. It is data from March, but I don't think opinions have changed much.

And it should be noted that so many of the low vaccination states really have few non-whites living in them.

healthpolicy.usc.edu

Education Is Now a Bigger Factor Than Race in Desire for COVID-19 Vaccine

New survey results show while racial and ethnic differences in vaccine hesitancy persist, level of education now has a stronger effect on people’s willingness to get the vaccine.
healthpolicy.usc.edu healthpolicy.usc.edu
Click to expand...
Thanks for the link.

Then the qualifier "white" was quite needless here:
djpbaltimore said:
We know the people who are not getting the vaccine and it is skewed towards white people without college degrees.
Click to expand...
 
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Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
12,143
3,072
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Don't know about other states. In North Carolina the big cities have higher vaccination rates than the less populated areas. This goes back to the education thing as well. More educated people in the state typically live in more populated areas.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
29,042
4,873
28,180
djpbaltimore said:
Disagree. I specifically was talking about Arkansas where the number of non-white people is small. >75% of the population is white. There a lot more whites without college degrees than all other races combined. They are the primary reason that vaccination rates are lagging there.
Click to expand...
So too are right-handed people without college degrees. If there's no difference between right-handed and left-handed people without college degrees, then it's a base rate fallacy.
 
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D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,800
16,680
Netserk said:
So too are right-handed people without college degrees. If there's no difference between right-handed and left-handed people without college degrees, then it's a base rate fallacy.
Click to expand...
Blaming right-handed people for the sins of everyone has not been a cultural staple for that region for the last century. Context matters. If you are not seeing how minorities are being blamed for low vaccine uptake, you should look harder.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
29,042
4,873
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Focusing on education alone when that is the primary/sole explanatory factor in question is not blaming any (racial) minorities.

When people in general without college degrees are as unlikely to be vaccinated as white people without college degrees, then the racial qualifier is as distracting and needless as it is to talk about right-handed people without college degrees.

I'm not participating in some cosmic balancing act where it's virtuous to assign blame to groups that has historically (and presently) been assigned less blame than others, so as to restore balance.
 
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D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,800
16,680
Netserk said:
Focusing on education alone when that is the primary/sole explanatory factor in question is not blaming any (racial) minorities.

When people in general without college degrees are as unlikely to be vaccinated as white people without college degrees, then the racial qualifier is as distracting and needless as it is to talk about right-handed people without college degrees.

I'm not participating in some cosmic balancing act where it's virtuous to assign blame to groups that has historically (and presently) been assigned less blame than others, so as to restore balance.
Click to expand...
But it can't be the sole reason because there is no educational component in the vaccination among the Asian population. And the reasons why the two populations in question reach the endpoint of 'unvaccinated' is decidedly different IMO, so why group them together?

What you are doing is ignoring the obvious stats. In Arkansas the uneducated whites are the ones causing the lag in vaccines. In NYC, the uneducated minorities are the ones causing the lag in vaccines. I hope my cosmic balance is now in order.
 
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U

Ultrairon

Mar 20, 2021
2
312
1,230
djpbaltimore said:
Yesterday, they had 2940 new cases which is well above the 7 day average of 2339. The 7 day average on August 5th was 2096, so I don't see how you can claim a downward trend in the data. It is possible that they are nearing their peak outbreak. If that is the case, they may start to see an ease in hospitalizations in ~10 days.

If you lived in Florida, would the following graph look good to you?
Happy?.... No.
Angry?.... Yes.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425672343506997248
View: https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1425672343506997248


We know the people who are not getting the vaccine and it is skewed towards white people without college degrees. A problem in places like AR where most of the people are white, and many lack college degrees.
Click to expand...
Did you ever see that article where the CDC recently doubled case rate for Florida and had to revise the numbers?
How about CNN and NYT saying there were 5 thousand plus children hospitalized in a period of a week or a few weeks when that was actually the number since the PANDEMIC begin. from a number like 800+ a day to more like 19 or less. It was a 1 or 2 week period they tried to focus on. That is the pure bull crap that makes the cdc and the media look skewed.
Then there are graphs of data collected by John Hopkins on ICU and BED space. This wave is similar to previous waves. It will come back down. But to listen to fauci the fraud or the cdc its panic parn.
Get the vax. If you can it looks like Moderna might be the best right now vs the Delta variant. Then stop freaking out about what other people you will never control do. The FDA approval will change it all. Then the schools can add it to their list of vaccines required and many other corps / companies will also provide a mandate. That will push the percentage up. Covid is not the spanish flu so call the f down.
 
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