Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Coronavirus on different surfaces
Also, temperature and UV light matter. The virus will survive a shorter period of time on a surface in hot weather, and/or exposed to UV. Since, as the article notes, we're playing probabilities or percentages, it's probably helpful to keep the temperature at home relatively high. Not to the point where you feel uncomfortable, but any temperature that doesn't bother you, the higher the better.

The Ab tests are becoming increasingly important to rule out the far-out models that claim that huge proportions of the population are already positive. Once we get an idea of just how great the proportion of positives is, we will have a better idea of the mortality rate. The high proportion/low mortality views are driving much of this let's-return-to-normal, only a few-people-will-die talk
 
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Stop eating flesh period then. Cattle and bats are both on the CDC list so why single out bats? People have probably been eating bats longer than cattle.
not really - there is a reason bats are not farmed for consumption and it has to do with rabies and other wild disease they carry along with themselves.

civilization.

generally its a problem when evolution has solved some of these things and you go against it and its a crap shoot on what disease you get.
 
Also, temperature and UV light matter. The virus will survive a shorter period of time on a surface in hot weather, and/or exposed to UV. Since, as the article notes, we're playing probabilities or percentages, it's probably helpful to keep the temperature at home relatively high. Not to the point where you feel uncomfortable, but any temperature that doesn't bother you, the higher the better.

The Ab tests are becoming increasingly important to rule out the far-out models that claim that huge proportions of the population are already positive. Once we get an idea of just how great the proportion of positives is, we will have a better idea of the mortality rate. The high proportion/low mortality views are driving much of this let's-return-to-normal, only a few-people-will-die talk
Merckx aren't you in Asia? I am interested if you are where I think you are what the person to person cases are % wise.
From what I understand and have been reading with cases in the southern states it is not spreading as expected. Then again factors like no subway / public transport also helps with the lack of transmission.

Yeah Ludwig I think you know.
 
We have a Colorado County trying to do antibody testing on the entire population of the county.

I think the antibody testing would be good.
So a little personal info but not so over the top. I'm in Argentina since 2 weeks ago. Scheduled here for meetings and then going to Japan. Supposed to be here for 40 days. That might extend.
Back in Feb I came down with Pneumonia within 2 days with no symptoms other than a tightness of the chest. I went to an urgent care and was given steriod shots and Z pack along with a albuterol inhaler. During that time I continued to go into my office for meetings. Every person in that office got the same thing. Yes I had one evening / night with chills and a brief fever. I thought no big deal.
Considering my family history with lung cancer and asthma I decided to follow up with a pulmonoligist. I wanted an CT scan with xray for the lung.
He confirmed sever Pneumonia and mentioned if it progressed hospitalization.
So this same doctor called me via my cell and requested when and if a antibody test comes he wants me to participate.
I have to say that EVERYONE who came in contact with me got what I had. Again this was Feb and it was odd how fast the symptoms escalated.
 
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Merckx aren't you in Asia? I am interested if you are where I think you are what the person to person cases are % wise.
Yes, I'm in the Philippines, and frankly feel a little safer here than in the U.S. We recorded the first death outside of China, and two other cases that recovered, then for several weeks, nothing. i knew it couldn't last.

The cases have picked up a lot in the past few weeks. I'm concerned that the nominal mortality rate is relatively high, about 6%, which suggests a lot of positives not being picked up. The Filipinos have a relatively young society, but that's misleading, in that many people die relatively young. Many young people over here have other conditions that would increase their mortality rate. So demographically, my guess is that the overall mortality rate would be higher here than in the West. I can't begin to describe all the people I have known with life-threatening diseases in their 20s, 30s and 40s. They seem to me like flies just waiting to drop when the virus hits.

Most or all of the country is on lockdown, and in some ways this is easier to enforce, because unemployment is so high. A large proportion of the population really has no reason to go anywhere. Most stores and institutions have been shut down, except for necessary ones like groceries and pharmacies. The most potentially dangerous aspect of culture is public transportation on jeepneys, a sort of minibus in which riders are typically jammed against one another. I was glad to learn that you're no longer allowed to ride on one without a mask, and everyone has to sit far apart from everyone else.

I think for many of us, it's sort of a no-win situation. Every day that passes free of the virus, the better our chances of weathering this storm. OTOH, the longer time elapses before getting the virus, if/when we do, the worse the prospects for treatment will be.
 
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Yes, I'm in the Philippines, and frankly feel a little safer here than in the U.S. We recorded the first death outside of China, and two other cases that recovered, then for several weeks, nothing. i knew it couldn't last.

The cases have picked up a lot in the past few weeks. I'm concerned that the nominal mortality rate is relatively high, about 6%, which suggests a lot of positives not being picked up. The Filipinos have a relatively young society, but that's misleading, in that many people die relatively young. Many young people over here have other conditions that would increase their mortality rate. So demographically, my guess is that the overall mortality rate would be higher here than in the West. I can't begin to describe all the people I have known with life-threatening diseases in their 20s, 30s and 40s. They seem to me like flies just waiting to drop when the virus hits.

Most or all of the country is on lockdown, and in some ways this is easier to enforce, because unemployment is so high. A large proportion of the population really has no reason to go anywhere. Most stores and institutions have been shut down, except for necessary ones like groceries and pharmacies. The most potentially dangerous aspect of culture is public transportation on jeepneys, a sort of minibus in which riders are typically jammed against one another. I was glad to learn that you're no longer allowed to ride on one without a mask, and everyone has to sit far apart from everyone else.

I'm supposed to return to the U.S. in about two months, but because of a bike accident, I don't even know how easily i could travel then. My plan is to use that as a reason to stay here longer, because obviously i want to avoid airports and airplanes, and if i returned to the U.S. i would be forced to interact socially far more than i have to here. Except for the people taking care of me, I have no contact with anyone else. The medical care here is not quite as good, but then again, how good will medical care in the U.S. be in a few weeks?

I think for many of us, it's sort of a no-win situation. Every day that passes free of the virus, the better our chances of weathering this storm. OTOH, the longer time elapses before getting the virus, if/when we do, the worse the prospects for treatment will be.
If i can help you I will. I work with DHS. I know you understand who I am . Think back to Vaughn days and few others. I work for DHS and have limited ability but can do what I can.
Me. Convinced the heat will do what expected.

If you reach out I will try. I don't care at this point regarding our views.
 
I think the antibody testing would be good.
So a little personal info but not so over the top. I'm in Argentina since 2 weeks ago. Scheduled here for meetings and then going to Japan. Supposed to be here for 40 days. That might extend.
Back in Feb I came down with Pneumonia within 2 days with no symptoms other than a tightness of the chest. I went to an urgent care and was given steriod shots and Z pack along with a albuterol inhaler. During that time I continued to go into my office for meetings. Every person in that office got the same thing. Yes I had one evening / night with chills and a brief fever. I thought no big deal.
Considering my family history with lung cancer and asthma I decided to follow up with a pulmonoligist. I wanted an CT scan with xray for the lung.
He confirmed sever Pneumonia and mentioned if it progressed hospitalization.
So this same doctor called me via my cell and requested when and if a antibody test comes he wants me to participate.
I have to say that EVERYONE who came in contact with me got what I had. Again this was Feb and it was odd how fast the symptoms escalated.
I completely agree with you. I also think we need massive antibody testing.
Interesting on the Feb time line (and I don't know where you live). Same time line, Feb, here in coastal NC we had a mystery virus going around. It was manifesting in two forms (same virus). People were either getting flu like symptoms or were getting sinus infection symptoms and in both cases the worst cough you ever imagine. The doctors were treating the symptoms because they couldn't do anything else. Many of us would love an antibody test to find out if we had this. My husband had the flu like version and the symptoms are exactly what they are saying the symptoms for this are. I had the sinus infection version which doesn't last as long and is more mild.
 
I completely agree with you. I also think we need massive antibody testing.
Interesting on the Feb time line (and I don't know where you live). Same time line, Feb, here in coastal NC we had a mystery virus going around. It was manifesting in two forms (same virus). People were either getting flu like symptoms or were getting sinus infection symptoms and in both cases the worst cough you ever imagine. The doctors were treating the symptoms because they couldn't do anything else. Many of us would love an antibody test to find out if we had this. My husband had the flu like version and the symptoms are exactly what they are saying the symptoms for this are. I had the sinus infection version which doesn't last as long and is more mild.
When I dealt with this it was Arizona to Texas. The entire time I was really dealing with it was Texas.
 
When I dealt with this it was Arizona to Texas. The entire time I was really dealing with it was Texas.

Thanks. Makes sense it would have spread throughout the country by Feb.

My husband did have a worse issue which was food poisoning while at tech school in the Air Force when he almost died. And you will never see it on his medical records as to why he was sick. Of course trying to get his medical records is actually basically impossible anyway. (Different story). The cough is the worst either he or I have have ever had.
 
Thanks for the advice. But I will stick with the CDC

I think I will also go with Chris G. on this one. Stop eating bats, cats, dogs, koala, camel, peacocks etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html

COVID-19 Emergence
COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in people and many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and now with this new virus (named SARS-CoV-2).

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. All three of these viruses have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir.

Early on, many of the patients at the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China had some link to a large seafood and live animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. Later, a growing number of patients reportedly did not have exposure to animal markets, indicating person-to-person spread. Person-to-person spread was subsequently reported outside Hubei and in countries outside China, including in the United States. Some international destinations now have ongoing community spread with the virus that causes COVID-19, as do some parts of the United States. Community spread means some people have been infected and it is not known how or where they became exposed. Learn more about the spread of this newly emerged coronavirus.
There is no definitive proof of the origins of COVID 19 as of yet no matter how you spin it - Finally, I'd hardly trust the CDC as the 'gospel of truth' with the way they mismanaged the availability of test kits.
 
If i can help you I will. I work with DHS. I know you understand who I am . Think back to Vaughn days and few others. I work for DHS and have limited ability but can do what I can.
Me. Convinced the heat will do what expected.
That's very kind of you, always nice to have a contact there, but at the moment, my most urgent medical issue is healing from the bike accident.

If you reach out I will try. I don't care at this point regarding our views.
I grew up during the Cold War, and people used to say the one thing that would bring the U.S. and the Communist world together was an invasion from outer space. This pandemic is certainly the closest thing to that in my lifetime.

Back in Feb I came down with Pneumonia within 2 days with no symptoms other than a tightness of the chest. I went to an urgent care and was given steriod shots and Z pack along with a albuterol inhaler. During that time I continued to go into my office for meetings. Every person in that office got the same thing. Yes I had one evening / night with chills and a brief fever. I thought no big deal.
So this same doctor called me via my cell and requested when and if a antibody test comes he wants me to participate.

I have to say that EVERYONE who came in contact with me got what I had. Again this was Feb and it was odd how fast the symptoms escalated.
You definitely want to take an Ab test. Think how relieved you would be if you knew you already had C19 and recovered. The problem, though, is that it sounds like you do a lot of travelling, so even if you're negative now, you could pick up the virus before you actually got tested.

Have you been in touch with any of these others? Did they all recover about the way you did?
 
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The main concern right now certainly is health.
We'll see what the effects on the economy will be.

The situation here reminded me a bit on the summer of 1992.
No joy in watching UEFA Euro 1992 since our team's been sent home and only athletes in individual disciplines were allowed to participate at the Olympics (under IOC flag).
You could still make a choice of meals, although mostly made of substitute ingredients (second, third... option in regular circumstances).

The story goes on for, approximately, three years and gets worse.
We'll see how far the Covid-19 will push it.
 
This is a summary of the management, preparedness and governance of US hospitals as refracted through one in Oakland. It’s consistent with my experience of NY public emergency services and the NHS in the UK. I suspect similar conditions obtain through various European countries and elsewhere. Implicit in this account are the risks of hyper-specialization in a moment of widespread need. It’s basically the flipside of philanthropically enabled testing in Telluride

 
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I am a bit skeptical that multiple posters on this thread had Coronavirus in the US in February, if they had not traveled to China or lived in Sea, NYC, or SF. Exponential growth is one thing when we are a couple months in, but quite another when we are in the early flatter stages. It takes time to build up momentum and spread. There are plenty of pathogens that cause similar symptoms that circulate throughout the winter months. But, if I hear anything about studies looking for patient samples, I will post the information here. I don't expect antibody tests will be provided on demand like the UK, but who knows.
 
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