Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

Upthread I posted some stats on hospitalizations and ICU admissions in my part of the world (State of NSW Australia). Here are the latest stats and they confirm that the omicron surge has peaked.

Hospitalizations peaked on Jan 25 (2,943, now 2,623)
ICU admissions peaked on Sep 21 (delta, 242, now 170 - a 30% fall!)
Ventilated patients peaked on Sep 18 (delta, 123, now 70 - a 43% fall!)
Plus we know delta is still circulating and responsible for most serious cases.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

 

[jmdirt]

I'm listening to experts. They don't all agree. H1N1 became endemic. So will SC2. It is inevitable.

Here is a link to one such expert in Australia. Nick Coatsworth is a an infectious disease physician.

Australia COVID: Pandemic will end in 2022, Nick Coatsworth says (smh.com.au)

It is highly likely that SC2 will do like other virus before and become endemic, but that is different than stating: "Covid-19 is well on track to becoming endemic", which is not accurate at all based on the data available today.

You didn't answer my question.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm listening to experts. They don't all agree. H1N1 became endemic. So will SC2. It is inevitable.

Here is a link to one such expert in Australia. Nick Coatsworth is a an infectious disease physician.

Australia COVID: Pandemic will end in 2022, Nick Coatsworth says (smh.com.au)

To counter your optimistic expert, here is a pessimistic take from a group of experts:
"Global Biosecurity, the Twitter account representing a collective of UNSW research departments covering epidemics, pandemics and epidemiology, argued last year that Covid will continue to “display the waxing and waning pattern of epidemic diseases.”

″[Covid] will never be endemic,” the organization said. “It is an epidemic disease and always will be. This means it will find unvaccinated or under-vaccinated people and spread rapidly in those groups.”

Covid will always be an epidemic virus — not an endemic one, scientist warns

Covid-19 will never become an endemic illness and will always behave like an epidemic virus, an expert in biosecurity has warned.

www.cnbc.com

I came across that article because I was trying to find RO definitions because I didn't think that I was remembering correctly, but I was. We need to get below RO 1.

 

[Cookster15]

To counter your optimistic expert, here is a pessimistic take from a group of experts:
"Global Biosecurity, the Twitter account representing a collective of UNSW research departments covering epidemics, pandemics and epidemiology, argued last year that Covid will continue to “display the waxing and waning pattern of epidemic diseases.”

″[Covid] will never be endemic,” the organization said. “It is an epidemic disease and always will be. This means it will find unvaccinated or under-vaccinated people and spread rapidly in those groups.”

Covid will always be an epidemic virus — not an endemic one, scientist warns

Covid-19 will never become an endemic illness and will always behave like an epidemic virus, an expert in biosecurity has warned.

www.cnbc.com

I came across that article because I was trying to find RO definitions because I didn't think that I was remembering correctly, but I was. We need to get below RO 1.

Covid will never be endemic is an opinion of one group of researchers.

Is H1N1 endemic - yes or no?

If the conclusion of UNSW is true then relying upon community exposure is no better than vaccines. The researchers at UNSW do not have the final answer merely an educated opinion as of today based upon what they have researched so far. As we know science always challenges what we think.

What is the RO of the common cold by the way?

 

[jmdirt]

Covid will never be endemic is an opinion of one group of researchers.

Is H1N1 endemic - yes or no?

If the conclusion of UNSW is true then relying upon community exposure is no better than vaccines. The researchers at UNSW do not have the final answer merely an educated opinion as of today based upon what they have researched so far. As we know science always challenges what we think.

What is the RO of the common cold by the way?

Yes.
Lees than 1 (EDIT: depending on the location in the world).

EDIT: In June and July of last year we were closers to endemic than we are now.

EDIT 2: I'm not pushing the UNSW conclusion, I'm simply showing the opposite extreme to what you posted (the article just came up when I was looking at R0). The actual outcome will be somewhere between obviously.

 

[Koronin]

If they can ever get a medication (prescription likely) that you can get at the pharmacy in pill form that works to get the symptoms to alleviate faster that would really help. So far that still hasn't really happened.

 

[Ultrairon]

Concern as Republicans push to make dubious Covid cure prescriptions easier

Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, the cures in question, have proven to be ineffective in preventing or treating Covid-19

www.theguardian.com

Political with the R lawmakers. Who cares what they think but obviously the missinfo of the news outlet that said overdoses of ivermectin was rampant is linked.

 

[Ultrairon]

been on a recent,4921 mile door to door trip to Florida, masks are pretty random and so were some of the things I observed. Hit or miss in Florida( Pensacola) DMV a all staff masked and visible posted signs requiring masks for service,@25% of the packed place were not wearing masks and still getting their tasks accomplished. In Alabama,talked with mostly Caucasian men deer hunters that said that Covid had a bad impact on their community,church membership and fellow hunters,neighbors,all above 60 yo dead. And in Texas,very random signs of anything being done, and in Louisiana,masks were handed out to people entering gas station convenience store combo..@80% use in Southern Arizona businesses..
overall I would say I saw signs encouraging or mandating masks everywhere that I can remember..

All of those states have no mask mandate and are still getting everything done. Thank you for your travels info.

 

[Ultrairon]

For the ones who want this to keep on going on.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

More good news. I hope it does not get crapped on.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

All of this everyone knew from when the SA minister of health said omnicron was not what the panic was all about. Yet that did not stop the panic postings in this thread. Even then all we had to do was go back and look at South Africa as a data example. Yet more panic posts.

I get the feeling some want it to go on forever. So keep wearing that mask outside and enjoy your lack of o2.

 

[jmdirt]

55,000+ USAers died in January from SC2. That doesn't make me optimistic.

 

[movingtarget]

Political with the R lawmakers. Who cares what they think but obviously the missinfo of the news outlet that said overdoses of ivermectin was rampant is linked.

If livestock owners in various countries are reporting that its didficult to source ivermectin that suggests its being over used and incorrectly used whether there are many overdoses or not. The same thing happened with some other drugs that people used for chronic conditions that were being used for Covid without any evidence of benefits and its affecting the people that rely on the drugs for regular use. Once something gets hyped it disappears quickly but I think the bleach sales are probably back to normal by now.......... even some asthma drugs were getting harder to find a while back but that hysteria didn't last long.

 

[firefly3323]

If livestock owners in various countries are reporting that its didficult to source ivermectin that suggests its being over used and incorrectly used whether there are many overdoses or not. The same thing happened with some other drugs that people used for chronic conditions that were being used for Covid without any evidence of benefits and its affecting the people that rely on the drugs for regular use. Once something gets hyped it disappears quickly but I think the bleach sales are probably back to normal by now.......... even some asthma drugs were getting harder to find a while back but that hysteria didn't last long.

Last year there was a shortage of prednisolone at veterinarians. With 2 cats that need it for IBD when my local vet (a teaching clinic as well) suggested I try chewy.com i was not reassured.

 

[FrankB]

Political with the R lawmakers. Who cares what they think but obviously the missinfo of the news outlet that said overdoses of ivermectin was rampant is linked.

i've already reported that one. just doing my part to keep it clean here.

 

[FrankB]

i thought this one perfectly captured the pants pissing fear that's run rampant in some places

Man Waits 'Til DoorDash Driver Well Out Of Sight Before Emerging Into Sunlight To Retrieve Food

TUSCON, AZ—Local man Sambo Gillschnoz slowly emerged from his home on Timrod St. yesterday afternoon to retrieve a sushi order that had been left on his porch, but only after he was absolutely sure the DoorDash driver had completely vacated the area.

babylonbee.com

 

[jmdirt]

For the ones who want this to keep on going on.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

More good news. I hope it does not get crapped on.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

All of this everyone knew from when the SA minister of health said omnicron was not what the panic was all about. Yet that did not stop the panic postings in this thread. Even then all we had to do was go back and look at South Africa as a data example. Yet more panic posts.

I get the feeling some want it to go on forever. So keep wearing that mask outside and enjoy your lack of o2.

What an idiotic thing to say! Other than a few people/corps who are making money due to the pandemic, who wants it to go on for even another day let alone forever?

 

[Unchained]

I am never sure what to make of posts that say things like..look at how successful those states are..making reference to places that have kind of a laissez faire outlook,throw it against the wall and see what sticks..over 2000+ a day still dying in the US and nearing 900,000 dead. So it's not really about numbers it's about perspective..if you have 2000+ people dying per day of something that is preventable..that's not really getting things done in a civil society.
Dirt points out a specific regional mask shortage, again it's all about perspective. Is there a slightly more expensive,more complicated supply chain solution that can get masks into needy communities? Probably, but human life has to be more important,more precious than the additional cost and effort.
As I traveled through the US and saw people not taking basic precautions, I didn't feel proud of any personal freedom or expression,instead I felt sadness of how little value their lives were worth and the lives of their fellow citizens and loved ones.
having a lack of PPE, and 2000+ people dying needlessly per day is the exact opposite of....getting things done...

 

[Unchained]

US Army will start firing vaccine refuseniks for 'misconduct'

The Army's announcement makes it the final military service to lay out its discharge policy for vaccine refusers. The branch's deadline for vaccinations was December 15.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Unchained]

COVID-19 Leading Cause of Death Among Police Officers

More police departments are attempting to mandate COVID-19 vaccinations for police officers, the Wall Street Journal reports. The rate of officer vaccinations lags significantly behind the rate of vaccination of the communities they serve. Many officers are filing lawsuits, quitting their jobs...

crimeandjusticenews.asu.edu

 

[Unchained]

COVID-19 leading cause of death for Hispanic residents in Harris County last year, report says

Harris County Public Health released new data Thursday about mortality rates and the most common causes of death in the county.

www.khou.com

 

[Ultrairon]

Last year there was a shortage of prednisolone at veterinarians. With 2 cats that need it for IBD when my local vet (a teaching clinic as well) suggested I try chewy.com i was not reassured.

When was Prednisolone linked to a covid treatment conspiracy?

 

[Ultrairon]

COVID-19 leading cause of death for Hispanic residents in Harris County last year, report says

Harris County Public Health released new data Thursday about mortality rates and the most common causes of death in the county.

www.khou.com

Read that Headline and then read this in the actual story. That Headline is misleading and you probably knew that when you posted it. If not and you did not read the actual story that is even worse. Just adding to the panic with a misleading headline.

"While coronavirus ranked as the third highest killer among all county residents in 2020, the virus accounted for 22.4 percent of Hispanic deaths, experts said. HCPH reported more than half of COVID-19 county deaths in 2020 were Hispanic residents. "

"Despite it appearing in March of 2020, analysts said COVID-19 ranked ninth for the five-year period.

Heart disease and cancer remain the deadliest chronic health conditions in Harris County, accounting collectively for 41.9 percent of all deaths during that period."

 

[Unchained]

Hurry w w response to the Chinese menu style of following orders in the United States military. You either follow orders or you don't. For many who have chosen a career in the armed forces,it's indefensible to say that they have received mission critical medical care,including a series of vaccines and suddenly, this vaccine is objectionable..and if so they need to explain the reasoning,which for the vast majority is unable to be rationalized.

And again hurry w the simple math of law enforcement deaths from Covid, indefensible reoccurring..the number of dead and cause of death are really not able to be logically disputed.

And at this point on..2 years into the pandemic,there are few that still argue about which races are effected by the pandemic disproportionately. This was always part of original sin, data could have been available and disseminated to target groups,then and now,not all groups are at equal risk. The even distribution of messaging,made groups at low risk resentful at scare tactics and at the other end,the wasted breath and money preaching to low riskers left those at risk uninformed and under served.. That really should not be seen as a matter of opinion given the current hospital and death records and community infection rates.

but you gotta ask? What is being done about the top killer of our cops?When an officer is killed..normally it's an all hands on deck search for the killer. And normally in an almost unprecedented form of cooperation..all forms of media,drop what they are doing to work at the capture of the most wanted killer..a dead police officer is an example of community unity wo exception.
people normally rally for the cause.

 

[Nomad]

What an idiotic thing to say! Other than a few people/corps who are making money due to the pandemic, who wants it to go on for even another day let alone forever?

Some politicians want it to go on forever. Big Pharma has now become the biggest lobbyist in Congress outspending Big Oil & Gas by a 2-1 margin. And now that Omicron has pretty much ended this all (nature's natural vaccine), there are still stubborn mayors & governors refusing to lift their vaccine mandates & passports (e.g, NYC, DC, Boston, Chicago, LA). At least here in the Denver-metro, Democratic leadership finally gets it lifting the mask & vaccine mandates as cases & hospitalizations have plummeted (if things change with a new variant in the future, they can always reactivate the mandates).

Denver dropping mask, vaccine mandates this week

The city of Denver will lift many of its indoor mask and COVID-19 vaccine mandates later this week. “Beginning Friday, people will no longer be required, under a public health order, to wear a…

www.google.com

Colorado lifts vaccine mandate for large metro-area events

COVID-19 vaccination proof is no longer required at some large events in the Denver metro area.

www.google.com

So many relatives & friends of mine experienced very mild cases of Omicron over the last several weeks. All were vaccinated with some even boosted. Omicron blew right through their vaccination. Most experienced symptoms of a running nose, congestion, sore throat, slight fatigue, etc, for a few days or so. My sister-in-law had her "OMG" moment when she tested positive after experiencing some very mild symptoms for a few days. She calmed down & came to her senses after realizing that she wasn't going to die or need hospitalization.

The strangest occurrence was with a 56 yr old powerlifter friend of mine from the gym. Conspicuous by his absence from the gym for over two weeks, he finally returns madder than hell. He proceeds to say that he had been sick the last two weeks spending several days completely bed ridden - the sickest he's ever been in his life. I asked him was it Covid? He says no & and the funny thing he says is that he had two Covid tests which were negative - so his doctor said it was a case of the "severe flu" (he said the last time he had the flu was over 20 yrs ago!). He says here I am fully-vaccinated with the booster so scared to death of getting Covid & I end up getting very sick from the flu. He shakes his head in disbelief & says I think start taking that vitamin D3 you preach about so much. Lol.

 

[firefly3323]

When was Prednisolone linked to a covid treatment conspiracy?

did I mention conspiracy?

tldr - no, I did not

 

[Cookster15]

What an idiotic thing to say! Other than a few people/corps who are making money due to the pandemic, who wants it to go on for even another day let alone forever?

Being overly pessimistic invites these kind of reactions. This reminds me of an exchange between myself and djpbaltimore on Dec 31st - linked below is one reply I received. I was told we should be wary of a flood of hospitalizations with the massive case spikes in omicron - but it didn't eventuate.

Page 347 - Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 347 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

forum.cyclingnews.com

With only 3/4 of the population with 2 doses and relatively few with boosters, letting go of the rope seems premature

Well lets go to the scoreboard today:
Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Hospitalizations are down 12% on the peak on Jan 25.
ICUs are down 34% since the peak on Sep 21 (delta surge)

Very good news and maybe a good case study for elsewhere. So we see massive case spikes with omicron did not overwhelm our hospital system. There is ample evidence to support being more optimistic.