Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Merckx index]

Maybe some show the symptoms of having the virus more easily or quickly.

Some people are apparently completely asymptomatic. The question is how efficiently they spread the virus.

One bit of encouraging news is that Singapore has been relatively spared by CoV. This could indicate that temperature and humidity could be playing a protective role as with regular cold and flu season. Not the only interpretation, but I think many people trying to contain this can't wait for summer to arrive.

The Philippines was the first country outside of China to report a death from the virus, and to date have reported only two other cases, both recovered.

 

[movingtarget]

Things getting worse in S. Korea; Cases near 1,000, Deaths @ 11, Crisis-Reponse Coordinator commits suicide:

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

First confirmed case in Switzerland:

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Too many suicides in South Korea. Seems to be a cultural thing. Very sad.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Too many suicides in South Korea. Seems to be a cultural thing. Very sad.

It's not only South Korea, just look at Japan.

 

[Koronin]

It's in the US. There are apparently people in NY under self quarantine, others in California being quarantined and who knows how many others.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

It's in the US. There are apparently people in NY under self quarantine, others in California being quarantined and who knows how many others.

We have several patients here in Eugene who are currently under observation at the local hospitals because they had traveled recently and showed some symptoms, at these hospitals the staff are also running drills in case they do actually get patients who test positive for the virus.

Who knows how this will all pan out, but at least it looks like the county is preparing for the worst.

 

[Koronin]

We have several patients here in Eugene who are currently under observation at the local hospitals because they had traveled recently and showed some symptoms, at these hospitals the staff are also running drills in case they do actually get patients who test positive for the virus.

Who knows how this will all pan out, but at least it looks like the county is preparing for the worst.

Over here I worry more about those who don't go to a doctor or hospital because they can't afford to. Yes, the medical community is trying to be prepared. I read something that they are at least a year away from a vaccine.

Where I'm at in NC we have a bigger issue (at the moment) with a cold virus that is imitating either a sinus infection or the flu depending on how the person reacts to it. Granted this cold isn't likely to actually be fatal, just highly annoying.

 

[sir fly]

There's been a press conference yesterday at our president's office dedicated to the topic.
Leading infectious disease specialists, allergists and epidemiologists were present.

President declared that he's been told, and that: "Americans insist on it, now... where you lay the alcohol - coronavirus doesn't grow!"
He understood it as an additional reason to take another shot daily, even though: "It isn't related to that kind of alcohol, I've made that up for myself."
Interesting confession, since he entered the office claiming he never tastes alcohol, except, occasionally, a glass of wine after a meal.
Tough job... Makes you start drinking if you can't stand the stress or your support swings between the target groups. Especially 2 months before the elections.

We could also learn that his hypochondriac friends heard that avocado helps, so now there's no avocado on the market and the import can't meet the demand.
But, the most important prevention is soap: "Wash your hands with classic soap, not liquid,... Bacterias reproduce in liquid soap."
And what about the virus? We're not talking about coronabacteria. (to ignore the hygienic implications about the populus the advice carries).

While the president's performance is in accordance with his general image, stays unclear why the medical officials, who have some strong references in their resumes, accepted sidekick roles in this stand-up? Political pressure before the campaign or just a matter of popularity among the party's starlets?

... Or a simple hand washing.

 

[djpbaltimore]

It's in the US. There are apparently people in NY under self quarantine, others in California being quarantined and who knows how many others.

Yes, I think that is the case. The reason for so few positives is that the CDC has had such a limited scope of testing. The California man was in the hospital for days without being tested because he did not fit the criteria of travel to a place with infections or a close relationship to someone who had. By all accounts, this looks like an example of community acquired infection. Until the testing is ramped up, I would take the numbers provided with a grain of salt. Japan just closed schools for a month. I would be prepared for similar here in the US.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1233013683854479362

View: https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1233013683854479362

 

[Extinction]

Too many ebbs and tides of Chinese-Italian flow and a regional hospital system that was unprepaired.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

On a personal level my main concern would be me infecting my grandma, who is 92 years old.

That would be my biggest concern as well... while most of us may be young-ish/strong enough to battle the virus successfully the elderly and immunity compromised may not be.

Having said that I went out grocery shopping with my elderly dad earlier today and made sure he and mom had enough non-perishable food on hand, just in case they are asked to self-quarantine at some point. (This won't hurt their budget any one way or another, being these foods are non-perishable they can use them even if the virus doesn't actually show up in their quarters.)

 

[Merckx index]

UAE Tour cancelled before the final two stages, because two Italian staff on one of the teams tested positive. The hotel where the race was HQd has basically been put on lockdown, pending health checks.

It sounds as though these staff members were infected in Italy, before coming to the race.

i wonder if any of the Chinese leaders will have the balls to challenge Xi. His delayed response to the virus has basically led to this situation. The barn doors are closed now, but the horses are long gone.

 

[Koronin]

That would be my biggest concern as well... while most of us may be young-ish/strong enough to battle the virus successfully the elderly and immunity compromised may not be.

Having said that I went out grocery shopping with my elderly dad earlier today and made sure he and mom had enough non-perishable food on hand, just in case they are asked to self-quarantine at some point. (This won't hurt their budget any one way or another, being these foods are non-perishable they can use them even if the virus doesn't actually show up in their quarters.)

For me my biggest worry is my husband. He has an auto-immune disease (Rheumatoid arthritis). Plus works at a VA hospital.

I agree that most of us here should be strong enough to battle the virus and be alright.

 

[Koronin]

It appears that a drug UAB developed to fight SARS and MERS is helping to fight coronavirus as well.

Drug developed at UAB helping treat coronavirus in China

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WIAT) – A drug developed at UAB is helping doctors in China in their fight against the coronavirus. The drug, Remdesivir, was developed to fight SARS, which had an outbreak in 200…

whnt.com

 

[jmdirt]

Deleted to comply with GRAPES.

 

[Merckx index]

Some authorities are predicting that half or more of the world's population will be infected within a year. If that happens, there will probably be 50-100 million deaths. But if that does happen, it will testify to the lack of political will in the Western democracies. China has brought the rise of cases almost to a standstill. Even in Hubei, the epicenter, the incidence of infection is only slightly more than 0.1%.

There also seems to be some fake or at least sensationalist news. CNN has reported several times that there are more than 900 infections in Japan. That includes the 700 cases from the Diamond Princess, which was an unusual situation, and doesn't reflect the spread on land. Take that away, and there is nothing particularly alarming about the situation in Japan, not yet. It shouldn't be compared to S. Korea or Italy, where there are real problems.

The lucky people right now are those who have been infected, and recovered. They can go anywhere, travel anywhere, without any risk of either becoming infected, or infecting others. Probably. But now there is a report of one case of someone who was infected, recovered, then infected again.

IMO its just another phony way for billionaires to manipulate the machine to gain wealth.

I don't know about that, Hundreds of millions of Chinese are basically confined to their homes. These aren't white collar workers who can telecommute (which Japan is encouraging to some extent).. It has to have an effect on China's economy, which will certainly impact the Anerican and other economies. Japan and Hong Kong have closed all their schools, which will have ripple effects on their economies. If the number of cases in S. Korea continues to arise at its current rate, the country will have to consider severe lockdown measures like China.

In the absence of a vaccine, which is at least a year away, the only way to halt the spread is through measures that have to reduce economic activity. Wall Street anticipates this.

 

[Invicituz]

COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - WORLDOMETER

Coronavirus Update (Live): 124,264,815 Cases and 2,734,674 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[djpbaltimore]

Some authorities are predicting that half or more of the world's population will be infected within a year. If that happens, there will probably be 50-100 million deaths. But if that does happen, it will testify to the lack of political will in the Western democracies. China has brought the rise of cases almost to a standstill. Even in Hubei, the epicenter, the incidence of infection is only slightly more than 0.1%.

There also seems to be some fake or at least sensationalist news. CNN has reported several times that there are more than 900 infections in Japan. That includes the 700 cases from the Diamond Princess, which was an unusual situation, and doesn't reflect the spread on land. Take that away, and there is nothing particularly alarming about the situation in Japan, not yet. It shouldn't be compared to S. Korea or Italy, where there are real problems.

The lucky people right now are those who have been infected, and recovered. They can go anywhere, travel anywhere, without any risk of either becoming infected, or infecting others. Probably. But now there is a report of one case of someone who was infected, recovered, then infected again.

I don't know about that, Hundreds of millions of Chinese are basically confined to their homes. These aren't white collar workers who can telecommute (which Japan is encouraging to some extent).. It has to have an effect on China's economy, which will certainly impact the Anerican and other economies. Japan and Hong Kong have closed all their schools, which will have ripple effects on their economies. If the number of cases in S. Korea continues to arise at its current rate, the country will have to consider severe lockdown measures like China.

In the absence of a vaccine, which is at least a year away, the only way to halt the spread is through measures that have to reduce economic activity. Wall Street anticipates this.

I would caution against taking half the world's population and multiplying by 2%. Swine flu reportedly infected about 20% of the world's population and it caused ~200,000 deaths. At this point, the incidence of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients with CoV is unknown. To use an analogy, we see the tip of the iceberg, but can't gauge it's depth.

A lot of viruses can remain dormant before reactivation. People on anti-retroviral therapy have undetectable levels of HIV in the blood, but it doesn't mean that they are cured. The 'reinfection' case in Japan agrees with observations of a similar phenomenon seen in China. It is just another hurdle to combating the spread of the virus.

 

[Nomad]

Some potential good news on the Coronavirus:

Will Coronavirus Slow Down In The Warmer Months Like Flu Season?

Past outbreaks might offer insight into whether the spread of the COVID-19 virus will continue in the spring.

www.huffpost.com

 

[Joelsim]

Some authorities are predicting that half or more of the world's population will be infected within a year. If that happens, there will probably be 50-100 million deaths. But if that does happen, it will testify to the lack of political will in the Western democracies. China has brought the rise of cases almost to a standstill. Even in Hubei, the epicenter, the incidence of infection is only slightly more than 0.1%.

There also seems to be some fake or at least sensationalist news. CNN has reported several times that there are more than 900 infections in Japan. That includes the 700 cases from the Diamond Princess, which was an unusual situation, and doesn't reflect the spread on land. Take that away, and there is nothing particularly alarming about the situation in Japan, not yet. It shouldn't be compared to S. Korea or Italy, where there are real problems.

The lucky people right now are those who have been infected, and recovered. They can go anywhere, travel anywhere, without any risk of either becoming infected, or infecting others. Probably. But now there is a report of one case of someone who was infected, recovered, then infected again.



I don't know about that, Hundreds of millions of Chinese are basically confined to their homes. These aren't white collar workers who can telecommute (which Japan is encouraging to some extent).. It has to have an effect on China's economy, which will certainly impact the Anerican and other economies. Japan and Hong Kong have closed all their schools, which will have ripple effects on their economies. If the number of cases in S. Korea continues to arise at its current rate, the country will have to consider severe lockdown measures like China.

In the absence of a vaccine, which is at least a year away, the only way to halt the spread is through measures that have to reduce economic activity. Wall Street anticipates this.

You’re assuming that the relevant authorities are telling the truth about the number of new cases. It seems to be to be the tip of the iceberg, with only those exhibiting symptoms being checked.

 

[King Boonen]

Mod hat on:

Hi all, can I just remind you of the following rule -

• G.R.A.P.E.S. (guns, religion, abortion, politics, economics, sexuality) subject matter discussion is prohibited, except where the topics are expressly related to core subject coverage and is initiated by staff. The moderation team reserves the right to remove any such posts and take action as warranted.

Taking a broad reading of this and trying hard to let discussion continue, if you could avoid economic and politically linked speculation we think we're good. For example, saying that this could have a negative effect on stock markets is probably fine. Speculating that such an effect may cause political change or that some countries may hide true infection rates to mitigate the effect is not ok.

 

[King Boonen]

COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - WORLDOMETER

Coronavirus Update (Live): 124,264,815 Cases and 2,734,674 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

That's a great resource, thanks.

 

[Nirvana]

As of 17:00 today 823 cases in Italy (doubled up in two days despite the big slow down in testing), at least 21 deaths, only yesterday evening 51 were admitted in intensive care (some in desperate conditions) in Lodi alone but they forced reopenings because the central government is panicking for the financial effects on the already terrible Italian economic situation. I wonder what will be the next phase of their schizophrenic approach, maybe tomorrow they are going to lock again down Lombardia just to reopen everything in 4/5 days.

Edit: 888 cases as of 18:00 http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/...comunicati-stampa/-/content-view/view/1219497

 

[Cookster15]

An Australian virologist this week was stated as saying the Coronavirus will likely infect our entire population but for the overwhelming majority this will pass as nothing more than a bad cold. The people at risk will be the same people who already are at risk from common flu - the elderly or frail. All from people wanting to eat bats or snakes.

So fit and healthy cyclists should not worry. Only when overtraining or maybe in a three week grand Tour you become susceptible. But in this situation riders are also susceptible to all other respiratory or stomach bugs.

Yes too many people in panic mode, particularly the world's media who really love nothing more than a big scare. The problem is this then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy with regards to the economic impacts.

 

[jmdirt]

Mod hat on:

Hi all, can I just remind you of the following rule -

• G.R.A.P.E.S. (guns, religion, abortion, politics, economics, sexuality) subject matter discussion is prohibited, except where the topics are expressly related to core subject coverage and is initiated by staff. The moderation team reserves the right to remove any such posts and take action as warranted.

Taking a broad reading of this and trying hard to let discussion continue, if you could avoid economic and politically linked speculation we think we're good. For example, saying that this could have a negative effect on stock markets is probably fine. Speculating that such an effect may cause political change or that some countries may hide true infection rates to mitigate the effect is not ok.

SORRY...That was me! I didn't remember the E, my bad!

 

[djpbaltimore]

An Australian virologist this week was stated as saying the Coronavirus will likely infect our entire population but for the overwhelming majority this will pass as nothing more than a bad cold. The people at risk will be the same people who already are at risk from common flu - the elderly or frail. All from people wanting to eat bats or snakes.

So fit and healthy cyclists should not worry. Only when overtraining or maybe in a three week grand Tour you become susceptible. But in this situation riders are also susceptible to all other respiratory or stomach bugs.

Yes too many people in panic mode, particularly the world's media who really love nothing more than a big scare. The problem is this then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy with regards to the economic impacts.

Doubtful that snakes are involved. CoVs generally only infect birds and mammals. The likely culprit (as seen with SARs) is the civet cat which is prized for its meat and its effect on coffee beans.