Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[movingtarget]

Indonesia tipped to be the next hot spot as little has been done in practical terms there so far to control the situation re testing and isolation policies but they have prepared a giant temporary hospital in an indoor stadium so it seems they know what to expect.

 

[hrotha]

most people are not declared as "recovered" in Germany as it's not allowed to forward these information for reasons of data privacy. Some districts still put them out themself, but obviously the total number is not accurate at all then.

The heavily affected Kreis Heinsberg for example does publish all numbers every day. So far they had 1043 infected of which 247 recovered

It seems they have updated this data and now Germany seems to be at 3,243 recoveries. Which puts it more or less on par with France or Spain, but with much, much fewer deaths. So the mystery continues, I guess.

 

[movingtarget]

The situation in China

Life after lockdown: has China really beaten coronavirus?

Residents and analysts doubt the near-zero transmission rate as restrictions are eased

www.theguardian.com

 

[jmdirt]

Indonesia tipped to be the next hot spot as little has been done in practical terms there so far to control the situation re testing and isolation policies but they have prepared a giant temporary hospital in an indoor stadium so it seems they know what to expect.

This isn't Indonesia, but this may give us a hint at how it will go?
https://www.ozy.com/news-and-politics/how-singapore-waged-war-on-coronavirus/292175/

 

[search]

It seems they have updated this data and now Germany seems to be at 3,243 recoveries. Which puts it more or less on par with France or Spain, but with much, much fewer deaths. So the mystery continues, I guess.

could be, yeah, it's about the number of infected we had ~10 days ago - which is exactly the time frame it takes before anyone can be considered as recovered.

The low number of deaths is in line with an also low number of "critical/serious cases" by the way, and there are also barely any reports about hospitals working at the limit and so on (most who are infected seem to recover at home) - there were even some patients flewn in from Italy and France. So I don't know about the exact reasons of course (apart from differences in culture, few multigenerational households and so on, maybe leading to less elderly people getting in touch with the virus, compared to Italy or Spain), but I doubt it's mainly about a different way of counting, as some have assumed.

 

[Merckx index]

Regarding NY, it was reported that 20% of those tested are positive. That's good news, in that if they're testing a lot of people who are negative, they should be getting most of the people who are positive. Also, the nominal mortality rate in NY (like that in the U.S. as a whole) is relatively low, 1% or less. If there were a large pool of positives still to be identified, one would expect a higher death rate. (To clarify, of course at any one point in time, there will be a lot of new positives that haven't been identified, but if the deaths are more or less keeping up with them, then the unidentified positives are a fairly constant and predictable fraction of the total).

Also, wrt asymptomatics spreading the virus: i don't think it's yet been well established to what extent this happens. One interesting tidbit i found in a NYT article Aphro linked upthread is that while China's experience was that 75-80% of the cases occurred in clusters, usually associated with families, children generally did not seem to be the ones starting these clusters. Assuming children are more likely to be asymptomatic (which may not be true, but is probably a worthwhile guess for now), one might conclude that asymptomatics are not as much of a problem as people with symptoms.

But so much is unsettled here. As an example, on the Diamond Princess, more than half the infected passengers > 50 years old were asymptomatic, whereas it was less than 25% for < 50 years old. I haven't seen any data from people on land confirming this, but they should be coming out eventually.

 

[aphronesis]

I believe the guardian article on China above also suggests that asymptomatics aren’t the main drivers

 

[sir fly]

View: https://youtu.be/KxtGJsnLgSc

 

[Koronin]

Here's an article form CNN about New Rochelle. This is the suburb of New York City that was the first to be shut down. It's showing that the shut down (not as drastic as we've seen in Italy and Spain appears to have worked there.

New Rochelle was a major coronavirus cluster two weeks ago. Here's where it stands now. | CNN

When New Rochelle, New York, found it had a cluster of people with coronavirus, the state took several drastic measures to stem its spread.

www.cnn.com

 

[Merckx index]

More from my fb pal:

One year ago, the Federal government did a "disaster simulation exercise" in which a fictional novel flu virus invaded the US. It had supposedly originated in China and was called the "Crimson Contagion." All the participating federal and state agencies were required to respond to developing, incomplete information in real time, as if in a real emergency. As one might expect, there were massive ***-ups, and the computer model showed that almost a million Americans died before the epidemic was controlled.

Among the lessons learned: A woeful lack of communication and coordination among agencies. Vastly insufficient capacity to test and track contacts. Huge shortages of critical medical supplies like masks and ventilators. [The report was kept] secret. The NY Times got a copy. Read it and weep.

 

[aphronesis]

Under the heading of governance (or discoordinated “just in time” management)

Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded (Published 2020)

Government exercises, including one last year, made clear that the U.S. was not ready for a pandemic like the coronavirus. But little was done.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Koronin]

More from my fb pal:

So exactly what is going on. Basically we're now living the Oregon trail and actually dying of coronavirus instead of just dying in a computer game of dysentery or small pox.

 

[nevele neves]

...but the deciderers/influencers aren't framing it that way, they are essentially saying "its worth sacrificing old and/or sick people so that we can save the economy".

dirt. I did not mention any sacrifice. No idea what the F you are talking. I have never posted or even thought about sacrificing old or sick. I have no idea what you are mad about. Politics?

 

[nevele neves]

Has anything we have done up to this point suggest that we will be like Japan?

Keep an eye on New Orleans. That has all the makings of another disaster. Their R naught might be lower than other places, but their problems are starting to become apparent.

Hopkins are now updating by county in the USA if people want to get the most local information.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

You have to remember Mardi Gras ? WTF

 

[jmdirt]

dirt. I did not mention any sacrifice. No idea what the F you are talking. I have never posted or even thought about sacrificing old or sick. I have no idea what you are mad about. Politics?

Nor did I say that you did.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I believe the guardian article on China above also suggests that asymptomatics aren’t the main drivers

WHO's Bruce Aylward was a main source for that I believe, he had trouble finding any evidence that there were many asymptomatic cases at all. Modeling suggests otherwise, so it is still a point of contention.

 

[aphronesis]

I see. It did seem as though the language slid around a bit.

 

[Merckx index]

WHO's Bruce Aylward was a main source for that I believe, he had trouble finding any evidence that there were many asymptomatic cases at all. Modeling suggests otherwise, so it is still a point of contention.

Such as this outlier model:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a...egmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

Edit: I accessed this before, now I can't. But this group thinks half the UK population is positive, and that the spread occurred through asymptomatics and mild symptomatics.

 

[8472]

The medical professionals are practically out there fighting on the front lines of a war. The rates of health care workers on the frontlines getting infected have been staggering, in some part due to inadequate PPE. If doctors and nurses start going down with the virus, it's only a matter of time before the health care system is well and truly overwhelmed.

Over 3,300 Chinese medical workers were infected very early on in the outbreak, and over 4,800 Italian medical workers have been infected with the #coronavirus, which makes up for ~9% of total cases in the country, according to Italy's National Health Institute. pic.twitter.com/ndt7OmPVW7

 

[search]

The low number of deaths is in line with an also low number of "critical/serious cases" by the way, and there are also barely any reports about hospitals working at the limit and so on (most who are infected seem to recover at home) - there were even some patients flewn in from Italy and France. So I don't know about the exact reasons of course (apart from differences in culture, few multigenerational households and so on, maybe leading to less elderly people getting in touch with the virus, compared to Italy or Spain), but I doubt it's mainly about a different way of counting, as some have assumed.

here is also an infographic for Germany:

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

The numbers are not 100% up to date, but the age distribution is interesting nonetheless:

	Total Cases	%
Age 0-4:	230​	0,73%​
Age 5-14:	646​	2,06%​
Age 15-34:	8300​	26,51%​
Age 35-59:	16000​	51,10%​
Age 60-79	5100​	16,29%​
Age 80+	1033​	3,30%​

In Italy for example, the average age of those infected is 63, for comparison, while it's ~45 in Germany.

 

[postmanhat]

Such as this outlier model:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a...egmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

Edit: I accessed this before, now I can't. But this group thinks half the UK population is positive, and that the spread occurred through asymptomatics and mild symptomatics.

Here's the article on Reddit, with a lengthy discussion underneath. The UK has bought 3.5 million antibody test kits to identify those who have had it. Should be rolled out next week apparently, though no details yet on how this will be done! I suppose then we'll have a better idea if herd immunity is a viable thesis?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/fo8dmg

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/fo8dmg/coronavirus_may_have_infected_half_of_uk/

 

[GVFTA]

'Tip of the iceberg': is our destruction of nature responsible for Covid-19?

As habitat and biodiversity loss increase globally, the coronavirus outbreak may be just the beginning of mass pandemics

www.google.com

Don't go there. You just can't help it can you?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Such as this outlier model:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a...egmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

Edit: I accessed this before, now I can't. But this group thinks half the UK population is positive, and that the spread occurred through asymptomatics and mild symptomatics.

Models are only as good as the assumptions that you build into them. And there is a lot of skepticism with this model. It predicts a low mortality rate, but we know that Italy (60 Million people) has lost over 7k lives. Unless the whole country has been infected, this low rate doesn't sound plausible. As mentioned before, there are legitimate points of contention on both sides of this argument.

Louisiana!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1242637287353188352

View: https://twitter.com/Ericjstokan/status/1242637287353188352

 

[aphronesis]

I don’t see environment under the restricted list of topics as it relates to a given subject: in this case epidemiology. In a broader sense, I put the article there to orient toward a sustainable global future when this discrete episode passes and to look beyond the human economy of death in which much of the urgency is located in the discourse of the present. That’s not political; it’s a life focus.

 

[GVFTA]

It will be interesting to see these results.
Wouldn't be happening without a local resident paying for it. That's Telluride for ya.

Weiterleitungshinweis

www.google.com