Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

Cool news. Antibody testing should shed more light on the situation. I hope that the samples are not totally blinded. It is crucial to question all the positives and find out what symptoms they had over the past couple months.

 

[aphronesis]

I wonder what the positive size and diversity would turn out to be.

Test might be a bit more helpful in NY where the positive rate for police is 1 in 200

 

[nevele neves]

I don’t see environment under the restricted list of topics as it relates to a given subject: in this case epidemiology. In a broader sense, I put the article there to orient toward a sustainable global future when this discrete episode passes and to look beyond the human economy of death in which much of the urgency is located in the discourse of the present. That’s not political; it’s a life focus.

one thing I am learned from all of this is - don't eat bats, koala, camel, dogs, cats, monkeys and other random animals. it could cause a virus that humans have not deal with.

 

[aphronesis]

one thing I am learned from all of this is - don't eat bats, koala, camel, dogs, cats, monkeys and other random animals. it could cause a virus that humans have not deal with.

I’ve been so close lately too. Preferably on a global tour of industrial waste sites since I can’t reset my immune system to premodern/pharmacological levels.

Oh, wait

 

[GVFTA]

Cool news. Antibody testing should shed more light on the situation. I hope that the samples are not totally blinded. It is crucial to question all the positives and find out what symptoms they had over the past couple months.

I have friends that live there that have provided a bit more info than the article in regards to positives. It claims one positive test result in the county. That is misleading, due to the fact they have no hospital and patients that have required hospitalization are now in a different county and on their records. It has been widely reported that there were many presumptive positives including 4 children under 5 years old who are hospitalized in a regional hospital. It has the potential to be a pretty bad situation there.

 

[postmanhat]

More on the mass testing in The UK. The tests are currently being er, tested in Oxford, and if successful, will start being distributed 'within days'. Initially to health workers and then presumably other key workers and the general public.

Still not sure if it differentiates between have or have had the virus?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

 

[djpbaltimore]

It is tricky to use antibody as a measure of a person's current viral status. But IgM > IgG would indicate you probably 'have' virus while IgG > IgM probably means you 'had' virus. Unclear on how quantitative that test is, but it sounds promising.

I wonder what the positive size and diversity would turn out to be.

Test might be a bit more helpful in NY where the positive rate for police is 1 in 200

Or prison and correctional officer populations. I have read horror stories about Rikers.

 

[jmdirt]

'Tip of the iceberg': is our destruction of nature responsible for Covid-19?

As habitat and biodiversity loss increase globally, the coronavirus outbreak may be just the beginning of mass pandemics

www.google.com

I read something similar a few years ago. There is also increasing research about how things in our food and water supply (fertilizers, pesticides, GMO, waste, plastic...) are suppressing our immune systems so pathogens have a greater impact.

 

[search]

More on the mass testing in The UK. The tests are currently being er, tested in Oxford, and if successful, will start being distributed 'within days'. Initially to health workers and then presumably other key workers and the general public.

Still not sure if it differentiates between have or have had the virus?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

it's a different approach. The Oxford study came to the conclusion, that there's a possibility that we basically got over this already. Potentially up to 50% of all Brits could have been infected over the past months, meaning we'd be getting close to herd immunity already.

To prove (or disprove) this, they now need to test a representative number of people for antibodies (which develop once someone has had the virus for a couple of days). The normal PCR test otherwise used works differently and can detect the virus earlier on (but not once recovered).

 

[hrotha]

one thing I am learned from all of this is - don't eat bats, koala, camel, dogs, cats, monkeys and other random animals. it could cause a virus that humans have not deal with.

It's not the animals, that's simply an ethnocentric take. It's the lack of oversight by the relevant food and public health authorities in certain cases.

 

[aphronesis]

@jm Yeah, that’s a bit where I was aiming.

Rikers is frightening on most levels; with the police I wonder the infection ratio of internal clustering to exposure across urban contexts.

As of noon

“Governor Andrew M. Cuomo on Wednesday said that there were early signs that stringent restrictions on social gatherings and other measures could be slowing the spread of the coronavirus, but that there was still far more work to be done.
Mr. Cuomo highlighted data that showed slowing hospitalizations rates. On Sunday, [NY] state’s projections showed hospitalizations doubling every two days, while Tuesday’s estimates showed them doubling every 4.7 days. “

 

[Jagartrott]

Such as this outlier model:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a...egmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

Edit: I accessed this before, now I can't. But this group thinks half the UK population is positive, and that the spread occurred through asymptomatics and mild symptomatics.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The difference in absolute mortality between UK and Spain, Italy cannot be explained if half of the UK has already been infected. Unless there are different strains with massively diverging mortality, but that seems highly unlikely.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

'Tip of the iceberg': is our destruction of nature responsible for Covid-19?

As habitat and biodiversity loss increase globally, the coronavirus outbreak may be just the beginning of mass pandemics

www.google.com

Sobering, but factually compelling and hard to deny.

 

[yaco]

one thing I am learned from all of this is - don't eat bats, koala, camel, dogs, cats, monkeys and other random animals. it could cause a virus that humans have not deal with.

It has yet to be proven the actual origin of COVID 19 - This could take the experts another year or two to find a definitive answer and it's possible they may never find a definitive answer - My advice is to ignore most of the MSM and use resources to delve further into the subject.

 

[yaco]

The anti-body test is essential for tracking how many have been affected with COVID 19, but also helps the economy move forward in that if you have/had the antibodies then you have a greater cohort who can return to work.

 

[del1962]

Primarily the anibody test will give information about how widespread the disease is and give a better idea on how deadly

 

[Red Rick]

Primarily the anibody test will give information about how widespread the disease is and give a better idea on how deadly

They've found it in sewer water in the Netherlands so maybe just by viral load in that they can make estimates of how many people have it.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Under the heading of governance (or discoordinated “just in time” management)

Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded (Published 2020)

Government exercises, including one last year, made clear that the U.S. was not ready for a pandemic like the coronavirus. But little was done.

www.nytimes.com

The resulting transmission of disease from wildlife to humans, she says, is now “a hidden cost of human economic development. There are just so many more of us, in every environment. We are going into largely undisturbed places and being exposed more and more. We are creating habitats where viruses are transmitted more easily, and then we are surprised that we have new ones.”

Occam's razor. How about we just stop eating bats?

 

[aphronesis]

Shouldn’t be a problem for you, so we’re good to go.

 

[nevele neves]

It has yet to be proven the actual origin of COVID 19 - This could take the experts another year or two to find a definitive answer and it's possible they may never find a definitive answer - My advice is to ignore most of the MSM and use resources to delve further into the subject.

Thanks for the advice. But I will stick with the CDC

I think I will also go with Chris G. on this one. Stop eating bats, cats, dogs, koala, camel, peacocks etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html

COVID-19 Emergence
COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in people and many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and now with this new virus (named SARS-CoV-2).

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. All three of these viruses have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir.

Early on, many of the patients at the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China had some link to a large seafood and live animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. Later, a growing number of patients reportedly did not have exposure to animal markets, indicating person-to-person spread. Person-to-person spread was subsequently reported outside Hubei and in countries outside China, including in the United States. Some international destinations now have ongoing community spread with the virus that causes COVID-19, as do some parts of the United States. Community spread means some people have been infected and it is not known how or where they became exposed. Learn more about the spread of this newly emerged coronavirus.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Thanks for the advice. But I will stick with the CDC

I think I will also go with Chris G. on this one. Stop eating bats, cats, dogs, koala, camel, peacocks etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html

COVID-19 Emergence
COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in people and many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and now with this new virus (named SARS-CoV-2).

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. All three of these viruses have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir.

Early on, many of the patients at the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China had some link to a large seafood and live animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. Later, a growing number of patients reportedly did not have exposure to animal markets, indicating person-to-person spread. Person-to-person spread was subsequently reported outside Hubei and in countries outside China, including in the United States. Some international destinations now have ongoing community spread with the virus that causes COVID-19, as do some parts of the United States. Community spread means some people have been infected and it is not known how or where they became exposed. Learn more about the spread of this newly emerged coronavirus.

How about cattle?

 

[Jagartrott]

A small interesting study done at a Brussels hospital: because they had cancelled all non-urgent appointments, there was CT-scanning capacity available. So they scanned all people coming in that were non-corona related. They found that 5 out of the 50 people they scanned showed some suspicious signs on the scan, so they had them tested, and these 5 were then found to indeed be covid-19 positive. This is of course a very small subsample, but it could indicate that a substantial portion of the population is actually infected without knowing and without showing clear symptoms. I'm sure we will be hearing about much larger studies such as this being conducted. Why haven't such tests been done in China for instance? (or have I missed those?)

 

[jmdirt]

Stop eating flesh period then. Cattle and bats are both on the CDC list so why single out bats? People have probably been eating bats longer than cattle.

 

[Koronin]

I wonder what the positive size and diversity would turn out to be.

Test might be a bit more helpful in NY where the positive rate for police is 1 in 200

I read something a little while ago that said they are planning antibody tests in the US for medical personnel in NY, Florida and California.

 

[aphronesis]

A small interesting study done at a Brussels hospital: because they had cancelled all non-urgent appointments, there was CT-scanning capacity available. So they scanned all people coming in that were non-corona related. They found that 5 out of the 50 people they scanned showed some suspicious signs on the scan, so they had them tested, and these 5 were then found to indeed be covid-19 positive. This is of course a very small subsample, but it could indicate that a substantial portion of the population is actually infected without knowing and without showing clear symptoms. I'm sure we will be hearing about much larger studies such as this being conducted. Why haven't such tests been done in China for instance? (or have I missed those?)

This would be one reason why. At least for China and Italy I would think

Weiterleitungshinweis

www.google.com

More generally, there’s been such an acceleration recently that it wouldn’t seem that much preventative, on the spot, approaches to medicine are geared to that kind of questioning or methodology. Especially not in the midst of a crisis.