Good read. But. True data may not exist for months? Year? Years? Ever? though. Modeling can only tell us so much because the 'modern' world has never seen this type of 'shut down'. When this 'ends' if the death count is relatively low many will say that we over reacted, but we won't really know because maybe the reaction is why the death count is low(er). If the death count is relatively high many will claim that the reaction didn't help, but we won't really know because maybe it would have been X times worse. Once you add in a factor(s), collecting/concluding valid data about how it would have been without those factors is a math game (factors like social distancing, closing public things, lock downs...).
Not directly related, but data/stats none the less: I understand sensationalized news, but the daily infected count, and death count are emotionally exhausting. Can you image if we had a running count of flu/cold deaths each year? Auto deaths each year? Cancer deaths each year? That would make those a much more taxing toll on our mental health as well.
*Please note that I'm not comparing flu/cold/auto/cancer deaths to C19, I'm comparing the way that they are reported on an hourly basis.
Your ramblings are good. Keep them up, and keep sharing them. I already did most of mine many pages ago lol.
Because humans die regularly, and because the elderly especially die regularly, it was difficult to gauge - particularly in the earlier stages of this crisis - just how much of an impact in terms of taking people before their time (and criticially how much before their time) the corona virus was having. I for one try not to get too emotionally involved in the 'numbers game'. Looking up random death stats from Australia in 2017, and 290 people aged 75 or over died each day, and we only have a population of 24 million.
So in Italy roughly 725 elderly die each day, or perhaps more, because they have an ageing population.
Nevertheless, we have seen some of the serious levels of corona virus in Italy, with 'average' deaths to the elderly per day being reached JUST by corona virus. Does that mean 900 elderly died overall? 1100? 1300? How many 'extra' people is the corona virus actually killing?
We will find out more when we see 2020 death statistics vs. 2019 for example.
As I have also mentioned previously, it isn't only a question of how many days/years that people have stolen from them by this virus, but it is the pain during death. I personally would much prefer to die of old age in my sleep then I would by struggling to breathe until I could no longer.....life is about the attempt to increase pleasure and limit pain.
However, pain is of course increasing due to economic hardship, and over time there will be an increase in suicides, general violence.
And where do we draw the line? Why do we not create any social restrictions at all during a normal flu season, yet create enormous social restrictions during the corona virus? If 500,000 people potentially die due to the corona virus do we care and do everything in our power to stop that, but if 50,000 people die due to a standard flu season we say "Sorry, that's too bad Grandma; I wasn't going to give up my sports and concerts just so that I might not pass on the flu to you". Both of these examples are quite extreme, and that is sort of my point. Where is the middle ground?
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