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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Some perspective on the new numbers in the preprint. Curious to see where it gets submitted.


We aren’t going to have to wonder about ’real’ results for very long. Lots of trials going on now.

Interesting from your article’s comments:

“As of tonight, they’re stating 1003 patients treated with HC +AZ and only one sigle death:
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/
Not sure that makes a lot of sense…“

Raoult might be sloppy... he might also be right. We will see.
 
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My Pillow?
really?


US doubles in a day.

VA system is sole provider for many older vets..redistribution in a @160+ hospital system during this chaos appears cra crazy but what real options are out there.
still no tests and no equipment.
War time and states are being asked to order their own airplanes and battleships..
A puzzle.
distribution preferences based on party?
what?
discussed openly?
what?
China reporting many patients in for a round two..not sure if a few weeks is scientific evidence of long term recovery.
how did the United States get from " under control,close to zero cases" to "anything less than a million,is a job well done"
6 trillion and we are already Jonesing for another line? What..3 weeks away from payment one and it's already not enough?
Wait.what?
Are we absolutely sure that Tiger King guy from Netflix is prison?
This is pandemonium.
 
Yes, in three or four month's time minimum, they'll have to start opening up gyms, pubs restaurants etc, for economic and social reasons. But lets say they manage to have tested everyone by then, and the suppression measures mean only 10-15% have the antibodies, will they be the only ones allowed to have fun?

Or will there be a short period of fun for all, followed by another lockdown?

This assumes that a widely available treatment (not vaccine) hasn't been found by then

It means that if countries re-open their international borders to encourage commerce etc, then only this cohort can travel internationally until a vaccine is available - You can't close down countries for 12 months +.

Edit ; Seems like the experts share my thoughts about an Immunity Passport.
 
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Disclaimer: This is a sources that I have never read but I saw this on another board. I thought it would be interesting especially for those who question China's reported death counts. I make no claims about the accuracy:

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Posted around a month ago that my information has 10 to 25,000 dying in Hubei Province - There was a hiding of figures but also China only counted deaths of people who made it to hospital - I suspect the same is happening in Spain and Italy.
 
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Posted around a month ago that my information has 10 to 25,000 dying in Hubei Province - There was a hiding of figures but also China only counted deaths of people who made it to hospital - I suspect the same is happening in Spain and Italy.

Probably, but it's not necessarily malicious. When there's a lack of doctors and equipment, why use ressources on the dead instead of the living with autopsies and posthumous tests?
 
“As of tonight, they’re stating 1003 patients treated with HC +AZ and only one sigle death:
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/
Not sure that makes a lot of sense…“
Raoult might be sloppy... he might also be right. We will see.
That depends a lot on the cohort. 5% of their study sample on the pre-print were asymptomatic. You could give those people M&Ms and they'd be fine. If you triage and make your sample younger, healthier, and more female, then 1 out of a thousand becomes closer to the expected outcome. And of course, did they have more people leave the study prematurely. The devil is in the details. Without a control group, their numbers are stripped of a lot of context. That and not blinding the study leave the authors open to valid criticism. For the new studies, I think one of the study endpoints might be 1 month survival, so the data is not going to be known as soon as people may think.

Most of the ongoing trials (See below) don't involve chloroquine. The one that got the most buzz out of Italy was tocilizumab. Anecdotal, but some of the reported successes were with people intubated.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19
It means that if countries re-open their international borders to encourage commerce etc, then only this cohort can travel internationally until a vaccine is available - You can't close down countries for 12 months +.

Edit ; Seems like the experts share my thoughts about an Immunity Passport.
It really is vitally important to verify whether some of the modeling numbers suggesting 1-5% or more of the population of some countries are already infected is true. That will impact all of these decisions.
 
someone sent me a Japan Times article that indicates millions of cell accounts are off and that there will thousands burned/cremated. I believe no one should be surprised when and if the real numbers comes out. This is crazy that in your USA that you believe propaganda talking points from the china communist government. I'm not surprised.

Chinese Cell phone Users:
November 2019 data: 1,600,957,000 users (1.6 billion)
March 2020 data: 1,579,927,000 users (1.57 billion)
Net Drop: 21.03 million

So from that data you think it's concrete proof that 21 million people have died. Right. Now consider:

China Population: 1,436,768,070 (1.43 billion) as of Jan 2020.

So even if every single person has a cell phone (even those in rural areas and all kids/infants), that's still 150 million more than the total population. The data actually represents the number of subscriptions cancelled due to the lockdown from migrant workers who cancelled their work region mobile subscriptions since they were quarantined at home, because the virus prevented them from returning to their workplace. So stop spreading bs conspiracy theories.

However, the death rate is definitely much higher than the reported figures since most people who die in their homes will not be tested before being cremated or buried, but this is true for all countries, I would imagine about 3-5x higher, but throwing around insane figures like 21 million is just plain irresponsible.
 
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In Italy, new cases have dropped for 3 consecutive days, so hopefully they have reached their peak (on March 28th) and is on the way down. There's approximately 10 day delay between the case graph and death graph, so expecting the number of new deaths to start going down noticeably within the next week or so.
 
So from that data you think it's concrete proof that 21 million people have died. Right.

Please show in the quoted post where this was suggested.

The data actually represents the number of subscriptions cancelled due to the lockdown from migrant workers who cancelled their work region mobile subscriptions since they were quarantined at home, because the virus prevented them from returning to their workplace.

You don't know what that number represents in any detail.

So stop spreading bs conspiracy theories.

Take your own advice.

However, the death rate is definitely much higher than the reported figures since most people who die in their homes will not be tested before being cremated or buried, but this is true for all countries, I would imagine about 3-5x higher, but throwing around insane figures like 21 million is just plain irresponsible.

Nobody knows, nobody said 21,000,000 are dead and by your own admission we can't trust much coming out of China.
 
Chinese Cell phone Users:
November 2019 data: 1,600,957,000 users (1.6 billion)
March 2020 data: 1,579,927,000 users (1.57 billion)
Net Drop: 21.03 million

So from that data you think it's concrete proof that 21 million people have died. Right. Now consider:

China Population: 1,436,768,070 (1.43 billion) as of Jan 2020.

So even if every single person has a cell phone (even those in rural areas and all kids/infants), that's still 150 million more than the total population. The data actually represents the number of subscriptions cancelled due to the lockdown from migrant workers who cancelled their work region mobile subscriptions since they were quarantined at home, because the virus prevented them from returning to their workplace. So stop spreading bs conspiracy theories.

However, the death rate is definitely much higher than the reported figures since most people who die in their homes will not be tested before being cremated or buried, but this is true for all countries, I would imagine about 3-5x higher, but throwing around insane figures like 21 million is just plain irresponsible.
No one said the amount you mention but I'm going to believe Japan articles over anything from China. It is going to be interesting to see what the numbers are and I would not be shocked by maybe 1 million in china.
is that just plain irresponsible?
 
Please show in the quoted post where this was suggested.

Maybe the wording was wrong, but it was insinuated since the article in question proposed the direct association between loss of 21 million cell phone accounts with possible missing people/deaths.

No one said the amount you mention but I'm going to believe Japan articles over anything from China. It is going to be interesting to see what the numbers are and I would not be shocked by maybe 1 million in china.
is that just plain irresponsible?

Only if you multiply by whatever multiplier for all countries, unless you think the rest of the governments around the world are all telling the truth. The number of real deaths is likely to be much higher than reported in all countries where the medical system becomes so overwhelmed that it's not feasible to waste time and equipment to perform posthumous testing especially on those who died at home. Not to mention previous (pre-March) pneumonia related deaths that were not even tested for COVID-19, since they were all grouped as pneumonia/flu related.
 
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