Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Nomad]

Interesting out of Japan:

"Two masks, no lockdown: Japan PM's latest coronavirus step riles social media."

Weiterleitungshinweis

71 deaths (as of 4/2).

-126 million population.
- 26% over 65 (U.S. 16%, Italy 23%).

 

[Mayomaniac]

Reported numbers are wishful thinking. All of them. Intentional or not. A million cases right now in the USA is probably a conservative estimate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245344139828330497

View: https://twitter.com/pgcornwell/status/1245344139828330497

Was the same here in South Tyrol.
In one 4 people died and yet they only tested 20 out of the 75 elderly living there, 4 of them were positive. In another nursing home the workers went on a strike because they didn't get tested, they wanted to make sure that they wouldn't infect the residents.
On the other hand some of the stuff that they are actually doing in Italy is straight out of a dystopian nightmare. Sending drones on patrol in large cities, some even with facial recognition software (rather pointsless with everyone wearing a mask) and the hysteria of not allowing people to practise sports outside within the borders of their hometown, of course one should do that alone and keep his distance.
Personally I'm breaking the most absurd rule on a daily basis, you can't lock up people inside their houses for weeks. Of course you need controls and sanctions, but if someone is responsable enough to take the necessary precautions he should be allowed to go outside and ride his bike, run or to go on a hiking trip (alone).

 

[Jagartrott]

This crisis really brings out the best in humanity:

US hijacking mask shipments in rush for coronavirus protection

Fears of shortages are driving many countries to take increasingly devious measures to secure masks and tests

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jagartrott]

Surely population density will play a role there as well? Even in Reykjavík, the population is more spread out than in most capital cities, and definitely all of them in Europe except for maybe somewhere like Vaduz.

Yes, that should have an effect, though it is perhaps more the public transport systems in those cities. I don't recall seeing anything other than buses in Reykjavik, and I'm guessing most use their car (and a few fools their bike). Compare that to London, Paris, New York, etc. where millions are using subways and the like.

 

[Koronin]

Yes, that should have an effect, though it is perhaps more the public transport systems in those cities. I don't recall seeing anything other than buses in Reykjavik, and I'm guessing most use their car (and a few fools their bike). Compare that to London, Paris, New York, etc. where millions are using subways and the like.

Maybe a comparison between LA and NYC should be in order? NYC population around 8 and a half million. City of LA is around 4 million, but LA county is around 13 million. LA is much more spread out and most people drive their own cars while NYC is very densely populated with a large portion using public transportation.

 

[Koronin]

We have NY hospitals converting bipap machines into use as ventilators. According to Governor Cuomo's press conference day the state has placed a large order with a manufacturer of these a few days ago. Sounded like he said they had ordered around 1,000 and just had their first delivery of around 200. Here's an article about them using these as ventilators:

Northwell converts BiPAP machines into ventilators for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, uses 3D printed adapter | Northwell Health

Northwell Health has turned to 3D printing to convert BiPAP machines into functional invasive mechanical ventilators and provide critical care for COVID-19 patients.

feinstein.northwell.edu

 

[BullsFan22]

Just read this in Bloomberg finance....

“China is not the only country with suspect public reporting on coronavirus.
Western officials have pointed to Iran, Russia, Indonesia and especially North Korea, which has not reported a single case of the disease, as probable under-counts”

But with possible exception of Indonesia what they all have in common is they are not free democracies.

So typical to see these smears on Iran and Russia. I am not sure what makes Russia, for example, a non-Democracy? So anything they say, regarding anything, they automatically shouldn't be trusted? What if they had the highest amount of positives and the highest amount of deaths? They would still not be trusted and people would still say 'well, they are likely not telling us the true numbers?'

Japan hasn't had a case in a while. Only 57 deaths, 126 million people. In S. Korea 'only' 169 total deaths since the outbreak in that country. Are those two countries not telling the truth?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Thanks, Denmark!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245765966690205698

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1245765966690205698

 

[Merckx index]

Surely population density will play a role there as well? Even in Reykjavík, the population is more spread out than in most capital cities, and definitely all of them in Europe except for maybe somewhere like Vaduz.

Lower population density might reduce rate of spread, but it's irrelevant to mortality rate, unless people are more likely to die the higher the dose they get (likely to some extent, but not firmly established), and that a higher population density means a higher average dose of virus (maybe, but no evidence for this).

Iceland just reported two more deaths, but still the numbers are very encouraging. Singapore's numbers look very similar to Iceland's, except for far less testing. And of course, the population density of Singapore is far higher.

I heard today that in German hospitals even in palliative care units people are only allowed one visitor per day for one hour. I don't know if that concerns all parts of Germany. So lots of people, if Corona- infected or not, will die alone.

i have a friend working as a nurse in a NoCal hospital. She doesn't work with COVID cases, but other types of patients. She told me the hospital is on complete lockdown, no visitors allowed. This is a common story many other places. i saw a news story about a young man with no known pre-existing conditions who died, and his wife and kid never got to see him. Once patients like this enter the ICU, they either survive, or you never hear from them again.

Remember all those college students heedless of the virus as they went on spring break? Dozens of them are now positive. I'm not going to say I'm glad, or that they deserve this, but i hope the story gets pushed hard so that other young ones with similar ideas will realize how serious this is.

 

[Koronin]

i have a friend working as a nurse in a NoCal hospital. She doesn't work with COVID cases, but other types of patients. She told me the hospital is on complete lockdown, no visitors allowed. This is a common story many other places. i saw a news story about a young man with no known pre-existing conditions who died, and his wife and kid never got to see him. Once patients like this enter the ICU, they either survive, or you never hear from them again.

Remember all those college students heedless of the virus as they went on spring break? Dozens of them are now positive. I'm not going to say I'm glad, or that they deserve this, but i hope the story gets pushed hard so that other young ones with similar ideas will realize how serious this is.

Here's a story on the Spring Break kids:

A group of about 70 embarked on a spring break trip. Now 44 of them have tested positive for coronavirus

Dozens of spring breakers from Texas boarded a plane for fun and came home with coronavirus.

www.wtae.com

 

[Unchained]

Most of Baja in observance of 9pm-6am curfew. The roads from Tijuana and Tecate have check points,they ask a few standard questions and each person in the car gets shot w pistol style thermometer. There is a secondary area for what I assume is people that have an irregular temperature.
As of today..no alcohol sales for 1 month..I have no idea how they will try and implement and enforce the most unpopular thing that the government could possibly do.
Rode through Mission, Pacific Beaches and up to the bike shop on the corner of Pearl St in La Jolla. All the beach access had crime tape up and cops posted in all the parking areas.
need new Shimano 6degree cleats,the bike shop says that they are closed by government order. Gun shops are open.
Gasoline in San Diego is @.50+ cents cheaper in @10 days..grocery stores have slightly better inventory.
Like a ghost town on the freeways..no obvious drive thru testing sites that I saw..

 

[Koronin]

Well this one is interesting:

This website is unavailable in your location. – WSOC TV

www.wsoctv.com

 

[Merckx index]

Koronin, I know you're a Steeler fan. You have to read this open letter by Cameron Heyward, on keeping the old folks safe. It's priceless:

https://sports.yahoo.com/letter-pittsburgh-115734292.html

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Well, well, well.

https://www.sermo.com/press-release...atment-patterns-and-puts-pandemic-in-context/

 

[Unchained]

Well, well, well.

https://www.sermo.com/press-release...atment-patterns-and-puts-pandemic-in-context/

I don't think I get the part about ventilator priority and first responders. Are they likely or unlikely to recover.?
Good overview

 

[djpbaltimore]

Spain and Italy doctors saying chloroquine was effective is belied by looking at the status on the ground. If that is effective.... It should be noted that azithro did not get much praise considering the Raoult paper. Also shows most places have limited treatment options.

Though it does seem like the large China trials are going to show some benefit based on a prelim announcement. How much benefit is an open question. The Nyc/ Wa trial won't be known until June. A doctor who was part of the trial was on Cnn earlier. Seems like only moderate cases were treated.

 

[nevele neves]

Had to spend a while clearing up posts in here.

Please keep it civil, we are all facing uncertain times at the moment, but keep to the rules, please.

Also there have been a couple of posts with political implications, these are against the rules and will result in further action.

Thank you.

there are posts upthread that are directly political and they stand. Are you or do you not know what the pillow conversation was about?

 

[nevele neves]

I don't think I get the part about ventilator priority and first responders. Are they likely or unlikely to recover.?
Good overview

• The three most commonly prescribed treatments amongst COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
• Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
• Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy amongst COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
  • 75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.
• The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:
  • (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for five days
  • (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for four days

 

[nevele neves]

Spain and Italy doctors saying chloroquine was effective is belied by looking at the status on the ground. If that is effective.... It should be noted that azithro did not get much praise considering the Raoult paper. Also shows most places have limited treatment options.

Though it does seem like the large China trials are going to show some benefit based on a prelim announcement. How much benefit is an open question. The Nyc/ Wa trial won't be known until June. A doctor who was part of the trial was on Cnn earlier. Seems like only moderate cases were treated.

Its not going to work man ,,,, your previous notions.
Lets just let the med's do the speaking.

 

[nevele neves]

Most of Baja in observance of 9pm-6am curfew. The roads from Tijuana and Tecate have check points,they ask a few standard questions and each person in the car gets shot w pistol style thermometer. There is a secondary area for what I assume is people that have an irregular temperature.
As of today..no alcohol sales for 1 month..I have no idea how they will try and implement and enforce the most unpopular thing that the government could possibly do.
Rode through Mission, Pacific Beaches and up to the bike shop on the corner of Pearl St in La Jolla. All the beach access had crime tape up and cops posted in all the parking areas.
need new Shimano 6degree cleats,the bike shop says that they are closed by government order. Gun shops are open.
Gasoline in San Diego is @.50+ cents cheaper in @10 days..grocery stores have slightly better inventory.
Like a ghost town on the freeways..no obvious drive thru testing sites that I saw..

I thought they was a shelter in place? Why all the driving around to check out the sites?

 

[Koronin]

I thought they was a shelter in place? Why all the driving around to check out the sites?

If the cops out there are doing what they are here they aren't going to stop people out driving to see if they have a good reason to be out or not.

 

[Pricey_sky]

there are posts upthread that are directly political and they stand. Are you or do you not know what the pillow conversation was about?

I don’t have time to read every single post if I’ve been away for a couple of days, once again, we ask members to report any posts they feel violate forum rules.

 

[hrotha]

This is amazing: a study on the effects of the pandemic on mobility by country, which effectively shows how thorough lockdowns are around the world.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility

It would seem people in the United States aren't taking this as seriously as they should.

 

[MartinGT]

684 in the last 24h for the UK. Good job they allowed the pubs open for one last round eh?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Its not going to work man ,,,, your previous notions.
Lets just let the med's do the speaking.

And, what are my previous notions? I have been quite clear that I think CQN is not going to be the best drug once all is said and done....

• Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy amongst COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
  • 75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.
• The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:
  • (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for five days
  • (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for four days

... and according to these anecdotal reports, the vast majority of US and UK doctors agree with that sentiment. I would expect CQN to fare better than painkillers or antibiotics in the places with limited access to a bigger arsenal of options. Faint praise, but praise indeed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246074254053060608

View: https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1246074254053060608

This is amazing: a study on the effects of the pandemic on mobility by country, which effectively shows how thorough lockdowns are around the world.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility

It would seem people in the United States aren't taking this as seriously as they should.

In aggregate, that is clearly the case. Dr. Birx said as much last night in the briefing. We are probably going to end up on the high end of the mortality cone of uncertainty because of it. There were too many mixed messages saying no big deal, whatabout flu, whatabout car accidents. And the shocking lack of tests fed into that by minimizing how many infections were present in the country, giving people a false sense of security.