Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Mayomaniac]

Edit: Apprently in Australia authorities are now considering a long-term strategy to ease social-isolation restrictions and expose Australians to COVID-19 in manageable doses, without overwhelming the public health system, is being considered by the country’s chief health officials and some NSW (state) government ministers. As infection rates continue to fall across the country, the logic is suppression strategies may eventually be eased — if only slightly, and in a staggered form — as part of an effort to expose healthy Australians to the disease to lift immunity rates. But I am still surprised with Europe. How could you possibly consider lifting restrictions yet in Spain, Italy or Belgium for example?

At some point the economic damage caused by a full lockdown becomes too great. Oeople won't be able to pay their bills and with companies closing down many will loose their job. I'm now mainly talking about a country like Italy that wasn't exactly known for it's booming ecobomy before this crisis.
The Summer season is also ruined, so the impact on tourism will be brutal.
Not everyone is in the same position as me and you and can just work from home office, so the main priority is getting those people back to their workplace asap.
Here in South Tyrol you now have to wear a mask or cover your mouth and nose with a tubular scarf when going out in public. I think similar measures, keeping your distance/social distancing and the now gathered experience and testing capacities will be oir main weapons against a potential 2nd and 3rd wave.

 

[movingtarget]

Edit: Apprently in Australia authorities are now considering a long-term strategy to ease social-isolation restrictions and expose Australians to COVID-19 in manageable doses, without overwhelming the public health system, is being considered by the country’s chief health officials and some NSW (state) government ministers. As infection rates continue to fall across the country, the logic is suppression strategies may eventually be eased — if only slightly, and in a staggered form — as part of an effort to expose healthy Australians to the disease to lift immunity rates. But I am still surprised with Europe. How could you possibly consider lifting restrictions yet in Spain, Italy or Belgium for example?

Believe it when I see it. Sort of goes counter to everything done so far and would politicians take such a risk at the moment ? I think the lockdown continues for quite a while yet. Lots of eyes will be watching China after Wuhan was just reopened.

 

[Merckx index]

Why are people with other conditions, such as high blood pressure and diabetes, at increased risk for dying from the virus? Some evidence suggests that the medications they take for these conditions could actually enhance viral action:

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) are highly recommended medications for patients with cardiovascular diseases including heart attacks, high blood pressure, diabetes and chronic kidney disease to name a few,” noted Diaz. “Many of those who develop these diseases are older adults. They are prescribed these medications and take them every day.”

Experimental research has shown an increase in the number of ACE2 receptors in the cardiopulmonary circulation after intravenous infusions of ACE inhibitors, supporting this hypothesis.

“Since patients treated with ACEIs and ARBS will have increased numbers of ACE2 receptors in their lungs for coronavirus S proteins to bind to, they may be at increased risk of severe disease outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2 infections,” explained Diaz.

Diaz believes this hypothesis is supported by a recent descriptive analysis of 1,099 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections treated in China during the reporting period, December 11, 2019, to January 29, 2020. This study reported more severe disease outcomes in patients with hypertension, coronary artery disease, diabetes and chronic renal disease. All patients with the diagnoses noted were also being treated with ACEIs or ARBs, highly suggestive of correlation, if not causation. A large proportion of elderly patients were noted to be taking these medication types to treat these particular comorbidities, which may be what is putting them at even greater risk.

https://www.clinicalomics.com/topics/patient-care/ace-inhibitors-and-angiotensin-receptor-blockers-may-increase-mortality-rate-in-elderly-covid-19-patients/?

 

[yaco]

Its a case of better to be safe than sorry - the precautionary principle. On Sunday out riding I had to stop for a water fill (yes we can still ride solo) . Unfortunately the tap handle was of the turn variety rather than one you can push with your arm or elbow. I hope I don't catch the virus from the tap handle I touched!

Do you use hand sanitizer to wash your hands after using the tap ?

 

[BlueRoads]

Believe it when I see it. Sort of goes counter to everything done so far and would politicians take such a risk at the moment ? I think the lockdown continues for quite a while yet. Lots of eyes will be watching China after Wuhan was just reopened.

To keep the lockdown in this way for much longer is economically not possible. You can do this for a few weeks more, but not for the rest of the year. Our enonomical systems are not build for this and it is impossible to change them so fast. If the economy goes down and down and down, there will be nobody left to pay for health systems etc. At one point we better discuss how to get out of this and the discussion how to can't start soon enough. That certainly doesn't mean we have to get rid of the lockdown right now, but there has to be a discussion how to deal with this. Everything else is a form of busting heads in the sand in my opinion.

 

[yaco]

Apparently there is a cluster of cases in Guangdong province China involving Nigerian traders - Mainland China is now hitting the second wave of infections so it will be interesting to see what steps they take to rein in the issue - In saying that I have confidence in their ability to test, trace and then isolate.

 

[Merckx index]

At one point we better discuss how to get out of this and the discussion how to can't start soon enough.

I think we have to get past the two extremes, total lockdown vs. total return to normal. There have to be some creative ways to get some people back to work while minimizing the risk. There will be more deaths from the virus from any modified return to work than from total lockdown, but this has to be balanced against the many consequences of continued economic stagnation, particularly the effect on mental health, which can result in more suicides, more drug abuse, more domestic abuse, and much more. It isn't just about money, it's also about leading a meaningful life. People simply can' t live in a state of hopeless uncertainty indefinitely.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I think we have to get past the two extremes, total lockdown vs. total return to normal. There have to be some creative ways to get some people back to work while minimizing the risk. There will be more deaths from the virus from any modified return to work than from total lockdown, but this has to be balanced against the many consequences of continued economic stagnation, particularly the effect on mental health, which can result in more suicides, more drug abuse, more domestic abuse, and much more. It isn't just about money, it's also about leading a meaningful life. People simply can' t live in a state of hopeless uncertainty indefinitely.

Yeah, the constant debate that this will really be (or is) about; valuing quantity of life vs. valuing quality of life. And well, how much either of these things are negatively effected.

In Australia we seem to have settled on a reasonable in-between social situation in amongst all the chaos. Restaurants/bars/cinemas are all closed (as are schools, but it is the Easter holidays), but industry is still all up and running. Basically there appears to be the attempt to keep as many people working as possible (of which personally I still am; in an office). We are still allowed to exercise also (my dad and I even hiked for a couple of hours in the hills the other week). There have been some over the top fines handed out to people for failing to social distance (in my opinion your first strike should be more of a warning rather than costing you an arm and a leg); the best (or worst) example being a daughter fined $1600 for driving her car as a learner with her mum alongside her as instructor....supposedly because they were not driving to an essential destination, this was deemed unnecessary....fortunately after a public backlash the fine was retracted, but still. This is a time when teenagers should be able to be learning to drive a car. Anyway, it could be worse. I could be living in France, where exercise is only allowed outside at night. Ridiculous.

P.S. We are also flattening the curve. In my state of Victoria, confirmed cases of corona are still increasing daily, but only by a small number. What shows no sign of going away though is the relentless media. I believe we had our 10th death from the virus this week. Can you believe it, 10! In a matter of weeks, not days. And it's all spoken about in such doom and gloom, and then there will be a brief mention towards the end of the news broadcast that HUNDREDS have died in ONE day in various other countries. Our news should not be saying that covid 19 is a paper tiger, but it should be emphasising that at present, Australia is coping with it really well.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The power of anecdotes. This morning, CNN had on the parents of a 27 year old Maryland woman who died from Coronavirus. She was a greeter at a grocery store. Her doctors tried hydroxychloroquine according to her parents, but that was not successful. I did not catch whether she had any pre-existing health conditions.

 

[jmdirt]

Do you use hand sanitizer to wash your hands after using the tap ?

At work we have no touch faucets, but we have to push a button for the hand dryer. Its an almost a daily topic of "what the?" conversation. At the beginning of March I started just letting my hands air dry (I've been working from home since mid March).

 

[Cookster15]

Believe it when I see it. Sort of goes counter to everything done so far and would politicians take such a risk at the moment ? I think the lockdown continues for quite a while yet. Lots of eyes will be watching China after Wuhan was just reopened.

I agree with you. But there is a body of expert opinion saying it is better to slowly infect the population so that allows the public health system and ICUs to cope whilst introducing immunity in the population for all those who recovered. Once a certain ratio of infected / recovered has been reached it means control of the virus is sustainable.

I also note the recovery rate in Australia is looking very good. New cases added yesterday (April 8) fell for the 3rd day in a row to just 93 hence continuing the encouraging trend. Daily recoveries are now exceeding daily new cases. Some will say these very good stats leave room to slowly relax the restrictions to help soften the economic impact. Right now I think that is premature conjecture. But as we see even in Europe where the virus impact has been far worse, they are already considering lifting restrictions as the economic impact is too great. As for China, I still don't believe their numbers. I note some journalists who are normally praising of China are questioning if the official stats can be believed.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

So the latest situation here in Eugene...

Only about a third of shoppers in grocery stores are wearing masks, but the cashiers and store personnel are much more vigiliant about shoppers keeping their distance.

I go only when I need to, and I wear a mask, what I did not find in stores today was flour and yeast. Have the lovely people of Eugene suddenly found a new love for baking?

Good for them I say. But it's just one of those peculiar observations you make when you go grocery shopping these days.

 

[jmdirt]

So the latest situation here in Eugene...

Only about a third of shoppers in grocery stores are wearing masks, but the cashiers and store personnel are much more vigiliant about shoppers keeping their distance.

I go only when I need to, and I wear a mask, what I did not find in stores today was flour and yeast. Have the lovely people of Eugene suddenly found a new love for baking?

Good for them I say. But it's just one of those peculiar observations you make when you go grocery shopping these days.

They have installed plexiglass barriers to protect the cashiers at WinCo (my local warehouse supermarket).

 

[Koronin]

They have installed plexiglass barriers to protect the cashiers at WinCo (my local warehouse supermarket).

Same here with Food Lion and Lowe's Foods.

Also Michael's is putting up plexiglass for their cashiers. Yes the local one here is open due to be designated essential due to it being a drop off point for UPS.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Our grocery store had the plexiglass (also Food Lion!) and they had a plastic wrap over the credit card device that could be removed. I don't know how often it is changed, but it is good to see some precautions.

I listened to a seminar from our department's CoV expert (via Zoom) today. He presented some data about chloroquine. He used a mouse model with SARs1 from 2003. Chloroquine was effective at limiting viral replication in permissive cells in tissue culture. But viral replication was not effected in the lungs of the mice. The good news is that clinical score was better, so despite its antiviral activity in tissue culture, the effect in the clinic (if there is any) is more likely to be due to immune-modulation.

 

[Cookster15]

Do you use hand sanitizer to wash your hands after using the tap ?

After that mistake it reminded me to take hand sanitiser with me when riding.

 

[Merckx index]

Hot new wonder drug of the day: quercetin.

This is a plant flavanoid, found in red wine, apples, elderberries, blueberries, onions, green tea, among others. It has been shown to be another zinc ionphore, capable of transporting zinc into cells. Unlike chloroquine, the supplement is available without prescription. So if you want to try a home remedy, combining this with zinc would be worth a shot.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25050823

 

[yaco]

Listened to a COVID19 modeller who believes there is a chance Australia has reached it's peak already- We can definitely say, that unless something drastically goes wrong the PEAK will not be in late June as the Government has been feeding the media - It just emphasises that Government's often tell porkies - Finally, I don't believe the official figures from many countries because they can't get all the sick people to hospital or have the capacity to test enough.

 

[BlueRoads]

Open shops / supermarkets have installed plexiglass or similar constructions, sometimes simply plastic foil for small shops, about two weeks ago in Germany, they are everywhere. Had to laugh at it first, because it looked ridiculous, but it's actually a rather simple measure that does not take away a lot, I think.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Interesting article about the viral phylogeny of the outbreak in the US. Sequencing shows that there has been a lot of mutations along the way, but nothing that changes the strength of COVID-19. Those mutations allow it to be tracked, showing where it was introduced into the USA from.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1248205844380102656

View: https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1248205844380102656

 

[Jagartrott]

In the original red zone in Lodi, Italy, 40 out of 60 blood donors had covid-antibodies in their blood, and all of these people had been asymptomatic. I can't read the entire article, but that's what I gathered from the first sentences. I hope that more and more (bigger) samples will show that the percentage of the population having had the disease is far, far higher than the number of positive cases. Not 65%, obviously, but maybe 5-15% in W-European countries?

Coronavirus, Castiglione d’Adda è un caso di studio: “Il 70% dei donatori di sangue è positivo”

Tutti asintomatici, ma hanno gli anticorpi. Dal loro plasma una cura sperimentale per i malati

www.lastampa.it

 

[search]

I hope that more and more (bigger) samples will show that the percentage of the population having had the disease is far, far higher than the number of positive cases. Not 65%, obviously, but maybe 5-15% in W-European countries?

In Germany first cluster studies in Heinsberg (one of the most affected areas) have found antibodies in ~15% of the poeple (so far ~500 tests have been analyzed). Results from a larger study in Austria (2000 households) will be presented tomorrow (https://www.corona-studie.at/)

 

[yaco]

Have a question - It seems the longer COVID19 spreads in the community equals a greater virulence and strength in its symptoms . Why is this the case.?

 

[djpbaltimore]

In Germany first cluster studies in Heinsberg (one of the most affected areas) have found antibodies in ~15% of the poeple (so far ~500 tests have been analyzed). Results from a larger study in Austria (2000 households) will be presented tomorrow (https://www.corona-studie.at/)

I noticed that they estimated the infection fatality rate as 0.37% based on their initial numbers. Look forward to hearing their final conclusions. Streeck seems to think transmission was more through parties and festivals with more closer contact and less through surfaces and casual encounters.

 

[Unchained]

Here in San Diego the grocery outlook is improving..food wise..cleaning and paper products are non existent. But everything else looks to be stocked well. Plexiglass in place at most stores. Senior hours at most stores @5-7am for people 60+ . Looks to be helpful.
gasoline is below @$2.70 a gallon and for Southern California that is great.
I think Blue's post above is probably part of critical thought that so far hasn't happened so far.
medical care needs to be discussed more openly. I listened to daily briefs by California state and San Diego officials. In both of the last few press briefings people have made statements or questions about "regular medical treatment" .
Officials have begrudgingly said if you fell down or have heart attack symptoms it's OK to go to the hospital. I don't think any officials have specifically stated not to go to the hospital unless you have Covid-19 characteristics,but it's certainly dangerous if the public is picking that up as an unwritten message.
To reopen the economy in any meaningful way,we need testing,and known status of people and places. You can't fight an enemy you can't locate.
And it looks like economic ebb and flow is what we should probably expect..a flare up..a shutdown and the emergency conditions subside and repeat..
I have also read that taking a prophylactic approach is very very dangerous. Vaccines are the ultimate solution and taking medicines that mask or just lesson the symptoms will only push virus mutations into turbo mode..if this virus grows strength and strains because of lets say large off label use of malaria and other meds is going to make this mess even more messy..I don't even know what that would look like.
Maybe it's wristbands..green means you are tested and clear(at the time) today or yesterday..other colors would mean something else.
Not sure if America will accept anything Orwellian or police state