Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Unchained]

It's kind of strange some of the things popping up..Males (US) ages 30-40 having more strokes from Covid complications..
also may dialator drugs having little to no effect w patients.and this guy is sounding similar to many I am seeing or reading about oxygen intervention treatment..but it looks like pre symptom testing would still be the key component to the strategy..

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wKHgDcbFTcM

 

[Unchained]

And there are lots of good posts here that include data about body mass connection to good and bad outcomes Personally..and trust me I am trying!!
grazing..snacks and more flavorful meals are presenting a clear and present danger to my body mass maintenance..forget about reduction!!!!

 

[Koronin]

The FDA has just granted Remdesivir emergency approval for treating Covid 19 patients.

FDA clears remdesivir for emergency use in treating severely ill COVID-19 patients

The drug is not a cure, but has been shown to help the sickest COVID-19 patients.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[GVFTA]

Prominent university bio lab urged to reveal extent of relationship with Wuhan lab at center of coronavirus outbreak

Federal officials are pressing one of the most advanced biocontainment laboratories in the U.S. to reveal more information relating to their extensive work and contractual relationship with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a new letter from the Department of Education reveals.

www.foxnews.com

Universities failed to report US$1.3 bn in foreign funding

A United States Department of Education investigation into six universities found that they had failed to report in excess of US$1.3 billion from ...

www.universityworldnews.com

How much foreign influence and $ is flowing into academic research? DJP?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Money? Not enough to make much difference. Influence? Practically nil.

 

[GVFTA]

Money? Not enough to make much difference. Influence? Practically nil.

Billions isn't much to make a difference? Yeah right.

170+ institutions under investigation and 1.3 billion to just 6 of them. Nothing to see here says all academics.

 

[djpbaltimore]

That did not even sound like research money from the article. Maybe cut and paste what you think is happening with it.

Let me introduce you to something we call the NIH.... Check out its annual grant budget. Then go to NSF..... Then go to DOD..... Then go to VA.....

 

[GVFTA]

That did not even sound like research money from the article. Maybe cut and paste what you think is happening with it.

Let me introduce you to something we call the NIH.... Check out its annual grant budget. Then go to NSF..... Then go to DOD..... Then go to VA.....

Second damn paragraph


One university received research funding from a Chinese multinational conglomerate to develop new algorithms and advance biometric security techniques for crowd surveillance capabilities.

 

[Merckx index]

Vietnam has very few cases as well and zero deaths.

I missed Vietnam completely, because it was so far down the list. Their numbers are remarkable.

Australia has virtually stopped the virus subject to the easing of restrictions.

Yes, Australia is on my short list. But they have > 900 active cases still, so not quite comparable to Thailand.

My university brings in like a trillion in revenue a year

I assume you are exaggerating for effect. A major university's annual revenue might be $5 billion, much of which does not support research. That's not chump change, of course, so your general point stands.

 

[Unchained]

I think a great deal can be learned from all the groups who had government mandated shut down - stay at home orders
..in the U.S. There are zero in hospital videos. Many medical professionals who are experiencing things in real time say something ugly and similar..seeing is believing.
given other health issues..gun or automobile death..cancer,,drowning..none look anything like March 1st to May 1st..
drowning,..car,bicycle and motorcycle accident deaths..hard to use 2020 data for much..but 2019,2018. Look at death from Flu complications..nothing has the ramp up..
And forget about Vietnam war combat deaths..because of government proclamations..we know a semi official start and end date of the war..which most say 1954-1973..@58,000 US dead..
just wondering where numbers for other causes of death come from that some appear to be disputing? Particularly..death tolls..what else in the last few decades kills @60,000 in 2 months? and that is with a government mandated hide and seek policy
Covid19 is a record holder I would guess
My personal opinion is that a "Scared Straight" campaign using ER video would be much more effective to deter people.
I think that the thread title is relevant..if you compare Covid to other things. War and starvation give it a run for the money but almost nothing else..

 

[Merckx index]

what else in the last few decades kills @60,000 in 2 months?

Actually, 60,000 in the month of April alone (and if one uses the excess deaths calculation, it could be much higher; when history is written, the death total for April might be closer to 100,000). Heart disease and cancer kill roughly 50,000 a month in the U.S.

From the S. Korea story:

Curiously, unlike many outbreaks reported before and since, virtually all of those infected -- 92% of cases -- had active Covid-19 symptoms at the time of diagnosis.

That seems to be because they followed up on them. Because if 92% of 97 cases had symptoms, only 8 did not have symptoms. Yet later it says:

Very surprisingly, no cases were diagnosed in the 15 home contacts of cases with "pre-symptoms" (nothing at time of test but development soon thereafter) or no symptoms at any time.

Either some of those 8 with no symptoms later developed symptoms (in which case the already very high % of people with symptoms increased even further), or there were more than 8 initially with no symptoms, but the number was reduced to 8 upon follow-up.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

My personal opinion is that a "Scared Straight" campaign using ER video would be much more effective to deter people.

It might be. But at least to this point there are a growing number of Californians not willing to be destroyed economically. Walk through skid-row sometime. That's tough to see as well.

Is anybody willing to acknowledge the mental health issues/ despair/suicide/Drug OD's that comes along with economically losing everything?

 

[djpbaltimore]

You can deflect all you want. And you might as well just revert to your personal attacks that were so regular in another particular thread that was closed. Oh that's right you just did.

What does any of that even have to do with Covid19? if you think that was a personal attack, report it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1254903864702251008

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jimtankersley/status/1254903864702251008

 

[GVFTA]

What does any of that even have to do with Covid19? if you think that was a personal attack, report it.

What's it have to do with covid? Maybe the origin.

"The Galveston National Laboratory (GNL) boasted in a 2018 release about its work in directing operations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, with the release reading: "In preparation for the opening of the new China MCL, we engaged in short- and long-term personnel exchanges focused on biosafety training, building operations and maintenance, and collaborative scientific investigations in biocontainment. We succeeded in transferring proven best practices to the new Wuhan facility."

"Specifically, the Department of Education also asks for records and communications with famed Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli, the so-called "Batwoman" researcher at the Wuhan Institute.

"As it stands, the U.S. government is conducting a comprehensive investigation into whether or not the novel pathogen, borne out of the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year, stemmed from a laboratory or a wet market as the Communist Party (CCP) leadership initially claimed."

Is this the Chinese Wonder woman that you referred to?

And yes it was a snarky personal attack.

 

[GVFTA]

in regards to the quotes above:

With all the anti China rhetoric here in the US, it would be pretty ironic if US academics (?) were even partly responsible for any mishandling or accident. The article makes it VERY clear that US academics (?) had their hand in the safety system.

 

[yaco]

Doubt any country can pat themselves on the back - The world would have locked down borders in the last week of January if they were serious about COVID 19 - A two month lockdown would probably have the world up and running by June and less of a longer term economic impact.

 

[Merckx index]

Remember when the initial projection of 100-200,000 American deaths was down-graded to 60,000? And so many complained about how far off the models were? We’re well over 60,000 now, and according to this site, the projection is now 168,000 deaths by early August. The daily number of deaths is projected to decrease, but still be close to 1000 by August.

https://covid19-projections.com/us

This site provides projections for both the U.S. as a whole, and for individual states. It’s linked to a main page, where you can also find links to projections for other countries:

https://covid19-projections.com/

Here are some of the underlying assumptions:

US states: We assume heavy social distancing until the reopening date and moderate social distancing afterwards. We use the reopening date as outlined by the New York Times. For states where there are no concrete reopening date (states highlighted in yellow on the NYT map), we assume a reopening date of June 1. Reopening will likely cause a second wave of infections in states where the outbreak has not yet been fully contained.

Heavy social distancing is what we have now in many states and countries: stay-at-home orders, closed non-essential businesses, etc. Infection rates typically decrease ~60%, going from an R0 of around 2 to an R of 0.6-1.0. As long as R, a measure of how many people an infected person infects on average, is less than 1, infections will decrease over time. If R is greater than 1, then the infection curve will rise. Hence, the ultimate goal is to keep R under 1.

Moderate social distancing is what we assume will happen once states gradually begin opening up. Some establishments will re-open, but people will still be somewhat cognizant about maintaining social distancing. Most states and countries will have guidelines that aim to maximize social distancing and minimize close contact, such as enforcing capacity limits and recommending mask-wearing. We assume that infection rates will increase 0-20%, resulting in an R of around 0.8-1.2. Note that this is still a lower infection rate than what it was pre-COVID.

If states impose stricter social distancing guidelines than our assumptions listed above, then we will likely see a lower infections and death rate than the current projections. Conversely, if states impose looser guidelines, then we will likely see a higher infections and death rate. For example, if California reopens before June 1, there will be an increased chance of an earlier resurgence. Or if any state required all residents to wear masks, the likelihood of a steep increase in infections will decrease.

In the case where the infections curve begin to rise exponentially after a reopening, it may become necessary for regions to impose a second lockdown. Starting from our May 1 projections, we began incorporating into our model the concept of a second lockdown, which we estimate will happen approximately 30 days after the reopening. A second lockdown is only necessary if the effective reproductive number (R) is greater than 1.

The total infections estimate includes all individuals who have ever been infected by the virus, including asymptomatic individuals as well as those who were never tested. The current infections estimate is based on how many people are currently infected at that time point (total - recovered). We estimate that the true number of total infections is likely 5-15x higher than reported cases for most regions.

With regard to that last point, they currently estimate that nearly 10 million Americans have been infected with the virus, about ten times the current number of confirmed cases. This assumption is a key part of their model, since they assume new infections arise from current ones.

And taking a very broad view, here are three possible scenarios for our future with the coronavirus:

...according to an analysis released on Thursday by epidemiologist Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota and his colleagues. They envision three possible futures, depicted as seascapes, their waves of different heights and widths approaching the unseen and unsuspecting beachcombers on a placid shore.

In one future, a monster wave hit in early 2020 (the current outbreak of millions of cases and a projected hundreds of thousands of deaths globally by August 1), but is followed by alternating mini-waves of much smaller outbreaks every few months with only a few (but never zero) cases in between.

In the second scenario, the current monster wave is followed later this year by one twice as fierce and even longer-lasting, as the outbreak rebounds after a summer when a significant drop in the number of cases and deaths led officials and individuals to let down their guard, relax physical distancing more than was safe, and fail to heed (or even detect) the early warning signs that a new outbreak was gathering force. After this doubly disastrous second wave, the sea is almost calm, marred only by an occasional wave of cases that number barely one-fifth of what the fall and spring of 2020 saw.

In the third possible future, the current wave creates a new normal, with Covid-19 outbreaks of nearly equal size and, in most cases, duration through the end of 2022. At that point, the best-case scenario is that an effective vaccine has arrived; if not, then the world experiences Covid-19 until at least half of the population has been infected, with or without becoming ill.

What all three scenarios agree on is this: There is virtually no chance Covid-19 will end when the world bids good riddance to a calamitous 2020. The reason is the same as why the disease has taken such a toll its first time through: No one had immunity to the new coronavirus.

“This pandemic is not going to settle down until there is sufficient population immunity,” slightly above 50%, epidemiologist Gabriel Leung of the University of Hong Kong told a New York Academy of Sciences briefing.

Since the world “is far from that level of immunity,” said Osterholm (he estimates that no more than 5% of the world population is immune to the new coronavirus as a result of surviving their infection), “this virus is going to keep finding people. It’s going to keep spreading through the population.” And that, he said, “means we’re in for a long haul.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01...tXY72JthfCAnYhCXricS3jMOgga4D3T48ondOlrVoAXo4

 

[yaco]

Health authorities in Bali tested a small village of 1200 for COVID19 and found nearly 400 were positive which suggests the virus is well established - Even small villages have more direct and indirect contact with foreigners then most other parts of Indonesia.

 

[djpbaltimore]

What's it have to do with covid? Maybe the origin.

"The Galveston National Laboratory (GNL) boasted in a 2018 release about its work in directing operations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, with the release reading: "In preparation for the opening of the new China MCL, we engaged in short- and long-term personnel exchanges focused on biosafety training, building operations and maintenance, and collaborative scientific investigations in biocontainment. We succeeded in transferring proven best practices to the new Wuhan facility."

"Specifically, the Department of Education also asks for records and communications with famed Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli, the so-called "Batwoman" researcher at the Wuhan Institute.

"As it stands, the U.S. government is conducting a comprehensive investigation into whether or not the novel pathogen, borne out of the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year, stemmed from a laboratory or a wet market as the Communist Party (CCP) leadership initially claimed."

Is this the Chinese Wonder woman that you referred to?

And yes it was a snarky personal attack.

Of course there is going to be an investigation. But all the scientific evidence points towards natural emergence. You are verging on 'Robert Gallo created HIV' territory with some of your accusations. We went through this whole arguing with scientists for unsavory reasons with chloroquine. How did that work out for your fellow travelers.

in regards to the quotes above:

With all the anti China rhetoric here in the US, it would be pretty ironic if US academics (?) were even partly responsible for any mishandling or accident. The article makes it VERY clear that US academics (?) had their hand in the safety system.

China and 70 other countries. You act like it is a bad thing that this occurred. A very peculiar attitude to take.

Just saw an NBC news story on this. The bsl4 lab is 17 miles from the market. People are barking up the wrong tree on this one. If there was an accident, it wasn't from here. They went to ground zero to collect samples. We owe the researchers a debt of gratitude. People suggesting otherwise should be ashamed of themselves.

 

[GVFTA]

You are verging on 'Robert Gallo created HIV' territory with some of your accusations.

Why don't you quote those accusations for me.

 

[djpbaltimore]

A US researcher who worked with a Wuhan virology lab gives 4 reasons why a coronavirus leak would be extremely unlikely

A fringe theory posits that the coronavirus accidentally leaked from a Wuhan lab. But a US researcher says there's no evidence for that.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[GVFTA]

Still waiting for all those accusations that I made.

 

[Oldermanish]

California will see dramatic increases in everything, because of testing and reporting, and had an up and down week a deaths and hospital admissions. Numbers keep coming up about vast amounts that have already had the virus either without knowing or symptoms so mild that doctor - hospital intervention wasn't needed

Washington is very slowly adding movement over the next month. Stay at Home order good to May 31st, announced yesterday so Happy May Day to everyone stuck like us.
I think we will parallel California for similar reasons...we know no one that has been tested. Not One Person.

 

[Cookster15]

Yes, Australia is on my short list. But they have > 900 active cases still, so not quite comparable to Thailand.

Wow, yes Thailand looks very good. But Australia must still be considered a success to date. Australia fell from a much higher peak than Thailand (4935 on Apr 4 vs 1451 Thailand on Apr 8). But of course now comes the hard part to begin relaxing restrictions and avoid a rebound or 2nd wave.

 

[Jagartrott]

I'm not sure about a number of things stated here, but it is interesting to at least consider some of it. I'm curious how much we will know in 6 months or a year. What did we do right, what did we get wrong?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1256552040202932224