Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[jmdirt]

One of the most remarkable stories of this pandemic is SE Asia. Eight countries—Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanamar, Singapore, Brunei, Timor, and Laos—have a combined population of about 250 million people, yet less than 100 deaths, combined. Singapore has about 25,000 cases, and Thailand about 3000, but the other six countries combined (175 million people) have only about 775 cases and just 7 deaths, total.

Throw in the other three—Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines—adding a combined 415 million people, and still only about 33,000 cases and 1900 deaths. So all told, for a region with about twice as many people as the U.S., a total of about 62,000 cases and 2000 deaths.

Then you could throw in three other countries/states in that general region--Taiwan, S. Korea and Hong Kong--with a combined population of about 80 million, and they add just 12,500 cases and 270 deaths, 90% or more from S. Korea.

If the numbers are accurate, I would assume that genetics, and the lack of specific diseases has a lot to do with the numbers. I also wonder if there is another SARS that they have been exposed that has given them better resistance?

 

[search]

A reliable antibody test

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808

This is good as it has approval in US, EU and UK

The reliability is no false negatives and 2/1000 false positives.

...according to their own data. "Our" German main virologist said all tests are more or less equally good. All have a few false positives, so you need to do neutralization tests anyway.

If this is true, Roche's PR and lobbying department should get a nice bonus for christmas though .

 

[BlueRoads]

The new deal around here: teenagers get 1 day per week, 200 minutes per day, "school". The rest of the time: every 14 days they get their tasks sent, have to correct them theirselves, upload them. For the rest of the school year. After the summer holidays - who knows. Seriously? That's not the perspective I had spoken about.

 

[Jagartrott]

The false promise of a return to normalcy is easier to swallow than the hard truth of reality. This is the time of the year where we should be winning and preparing for the real battle in the fall. Instead, we have a bunch of Wisconsin folk celebrating that their bars are open and the public is being told that the virus will go away on its own. In the USA, we just have to hope that individual decision making is pragmatic enough to weather the storm.

The example of Maryland above - the policy makes no sense. I wonder if the US is feeling a pressure to act in sync with Europe's and (some of) Asia's relaxation of regulations, even though most states in the US are behind those curves?

 

[djpbaltimore]

The USA never really locked down like most of Europe or Asia. Our de facto approach has always been closer to Sweden (albeit with definite differences). Restaurants have been closed for dine in but pickup and delivery never stopped for the most part. Not saying that the re-opening of Europe or Asia is not felt at some level, but it is more about leaders not willing to make hard decisions. Our Gov (Hogan) had to decide initially to close because the decision was punted to him from above. Now, he is punting the decision to the counties because the progress has stalled. We barely tried and now it is YOLO time. At least one of the hard hit DC suburb counties will not open tomorrow.

This guy is a moron, but I think this is a decent representation of what many people feel here. It is still a minority, but a very vocal minority. And the irony that it is being broadcast from the safety of a home studio makes it all the more ludicrous. At some point, life became satire and no one realized the difference.

'Let me roll the dice and play with the Corona' is the epitaph of our times.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260721488241418240

View: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1260721488241418240

 

[Oldermanish]

If the numbers are accurate, I would assume that genetics, and the lack of specific diseases has a lot to do with the numbers. I also wonder if there is another SARS that they have been exposed that has given them better resistance?

A more likely explanation is social response and exposure to outside sources at a critical time.

 

[Oldermanish]

The USA never really locked down like most of Europe or Asia. Our de facto approach has always been closer to Sweden (albeit with definite differences). Restaurants have been closed for dine in but pickup and delivery never stopped for the most part. Not saying that the re-opening of Europe or Asia is not felt at some level, but it is more about leaders not willing to make hard decisions. Our Gov (Hogan) had to decide initially to close because the decision was punted to him from above. Now, he is punting the decision to the counties because the progress has stalled. We barely tried and now it is YOLO time. At least one of the hard hit DC suburb counties will not open tomorrow.

This guy is a moron, but I think this is a decent representation of what many people feel here. It is still a minority, but a very vocal minority. And the irony that it is being broadcast from the safety of a home studio makes it all the more ludicrous. At some point, life became satire and no one realized the difference.

'Let me roll the dice and play with the Corona' is the epitaph of our times.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260721488241418240

View: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1260721488241418240

With Wisconsin bars wide open and the legendary drinking prowess of their population on full steroids; we will see effects fairly soon.

 

[Koronin]

The USA never really locked down like most of Europe or Asia. Our de facto approach has always been closer to Sweden (albeit with definite differences). Restaurants have been closed for dine in but pickup and delivery never stopped for the most part. Not saying that the re-opening of Europe or Asia is not felt at some level, but it is more about leaders not willing to make hard decisions. Our Gov (Hogan) had to decide initially to close because the decision was punted to him from above. Now, he is punting the decision to the counties because the progress has stalled. We barely tried and now it is YOLO time. At least one of the hard hit DC suburb counties will not open tomorrow.

This guy is a moron, but I think this is a decent representation of what many people feel here. It is still a minority, but a very vocal minority. And the irony that it is being broadcast from the safety of a home studio makes it all the more ludicrous. At some point, life became satire and no one realized the difference.

'Let me roll the dice and play with the Corona' is the epitaph of our times.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260721488241418240

View: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1260721488241418240

It's a very vocal minority. On the other hand, my main job has brought us back for meetings this week and how we go back to work next week. Apparently the big reason they shut us down for a little over a month was wanting to secure PPE for us. As they are shipping us PPE (masks and gloves) along with our materials to put up in stores. Now the stores I work in are stores that never closed (grocery and drug stores mostly).

 

[GVFTA]

With Wisconsin bars wide open and the legendary drinking prowess of their population on full steroids; we will see effects fairly soon.

They need to worry about 8 million people in the Chicago area that are itching to get their fun on. Wisconsin may actually earn the right to call them FIB's.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm finding quite of bit of contradiction in "the economy is killing my livelihood...the bars are open? Let's go spend $100 on beer and food!" Man carrying AR, 9mm, and rocket launcher in sandwich shop: "we need to get back to work so I can feed my family". Why are you eating out if your family is hungry? Why have you spent most of your money are weapons and ammo?

 

[Oldermanish]

I'm finding quite of bit of contradiction in "the economy is killing my livelihood...the bars are open? Let's go spend $100 on beer and food!" Man carrying AR, 9mm, and rocket launcher in sandwich shop: "we need to get back to work so I can feed my family". Why are you eating out if your family is hungry? Why have you spent most of your money are weapons and ammo?

I saw the sandwich shop touring group. Does a rocket launcher require regular walks to stay "vigilant", like a trained Doberman? I'm dumbfounded and can't imagine what impression folks in other countries have of the US right now.

 

[movingtarget]

I heard something about diabetes treatment maybe affecting the death rate as well. (That if you have it but are diagnosed and the treatment is well adjusted it helps a lot. So countries with either small diabetes numbers or early diagnoses and good treatment could do better.) But I think it was an assumption of a doctor, not a study.

One in four people who have died in hospital with Covid-19 also had diabetes, the NHS’s first breakdown of underlying health conditions among the fatalities shows.
Of the 22,332 people who died in hospital in England between 31 March and 12 May, 5,873 (26%) suffered from either type 1 or type 2 diabetes, NHS England figures reveal.
That was the most common illness found in an analysis of what existing conditions patients had. The other commonest comorbidities were dementia (18%), serious breathing problems (15%) and chronic kidney disease (14%). One in ten (10%) suffered from ischaemic heart disease.
The finding about diabetes confirms anecdotal reports from intensive care doctors that many of the coronavirus patients they have been treating during the pandemic had underlying diabetes, as well as research by the UK’s Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre.
NHS England said the one in four figure confirmed that diabetes – which 4.8 million Britons are estimated to have – increases the risk of death from Covid-19.

“It is clear that people with diabetes are more at risk of dying from Covid-19,” said Prof Partha Kar, the organisation’s specialty adviser on the disease. “More detailed analysis is currently underway to understand the link between the two, although initial findings indicate that the threat in people under 40 continues to be very low.”.





NHS England’s breakdown, published for the first time on Thursday, did not specify how many of the 5,873 diabetics who died had type 1 diabetes, an autoimmune condition not related to lifestyle, and type 2 diabetes, which is closely linked to being overweight. Fuller details will be published in an article in a medical journal next week.

Experts think that diabetes increases the risk of dying from Covid-19 because diabetes puts strain on the heart and other organs.

 

[Koronin]

I saw the sandwich shop touring group. Does a rocket launcher require regular walks to stay "vigilant", like a trained Doberman? I'm dumbfounded and can't imagine what impression folks in other countries have of the US right now.

Quick answer is it does not need regular walks, it also should have a hole in it somewhere so that it's not operational. It's something that could be a really nice museum piece or a war collection piece, but that's about it.
I just hope people in other countries realize there are many of us who aren't that crazy.

 

[jmdirt]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/

 

[Kaptain Kool]

A more likely explanation is social response and exposure to outside sources at a critical time.

IMHO a big part of SE Asia's low rates is climate. Hot, humid and direct sunlight means the virus doesn't linger as much in the air or surfaces. It can spread in large groups condensed together in closed spaces (e.g., large clusters from religious events in Malaysia and Indonesia, migrant workers in Singapore). Outside of SE Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan are subtropical and also have favorable climates. Compare that to heavy-hit locals in cooler climates where more of the virus lives longer outside of a host. Even more virus-friendly is a place like New York where combine the climate with millions of people passing through enclosed areas.

Though the response helped as well. Experience with SARS allowed this part of the world to know how to concentrate testing and isolation on identified clusters. I'm sure the US, for example, knows how to do this, too. But they waited until March when they could have started in January.

 

[yaco]

IMHO a big part of SE Asia's low rates is climate. Hot, humid and direct sunlight means the virus doesn't linger as much in the air or surfaces. It can spread in large groups condensed together in closed spaces (e.g., large clusters from religious events in Malaysia and Indonesia, migrant workers in Singapore). Outside of SE Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan are subtropical and also have favorable climates. Compare that to heavy-hit locals in cooler climates where more of the virus lives longer outside of a host. Even more virus-friendly is a place like New York where combine the climate with millions of people passing through enclosed areas.

Though the response helped as well. Experience with SARS allowed this part of the world to know how to concentrate testing and isolation on identified clusters. I'm sure the US, for example, knows how to do this, too. But they waited until March when they could have started in January.

COVID19 first hit HK in the middle of winter which has an average temp of 18C - Now is the hot period of the year, so let's see how we go.

 

[Jagartrott]

Regarding low covid deaths in countries like Indonesië - always be aware of significant underreporting...

(from The Economist)

 

[Merckx index]

Regarding low covid deaths in countries like Indonesië - always be aware of significant underreporting...

Sure, but even if you apply the factor of seven for Jakarta to all of Indonesia, you still come up with a death total per million about one-tenth that of the U.S. If you look at just the first six countries I mentioned, with a combined population of about half that of the U.S., they have a death total of less than one ten-thousandth of the U.S. By cases, it's about one two thousandth. This can't be accounted for by under-reporting. This would be total, blanket denial that anything at all was going on.

 

[dusty red roads]

Recommendations re Vitamin D:

Vitamin D Determines Severity in COVID-19: Researchers Urge Government to Change Advice

Trinity College Dublin researchers point to changes in government advice in Wales, England and Scotland. Researchers from Trinity College Dublin are calling on the government in Ireland to change recommendations for vitamin D supplements. A new publication from Dr. Eamon Laird and Professor Ro

scitechdaily.com

 

[movingtarget]

Was Sweden right ?

As Europe emerges from lockdown, the question hangs: was Sweden right? | Simon Jenkins

Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system has collapsed, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

I think the article overstates how close to herd immunity that Sweden is. Recent data that came out this week puts the total infection percentage in Sweden around 6%. The total number in Stockholm was estimated to be more like 15-20%. With a lot of single person dwelling and a healthy population, they were the most suited to trying this kind of policy. It is way to early to call their plan a success or a failure. Though I would lean toward the latter at this point. The thing that would tip the balance toward success is if there is no vaccine in the next 3-5 years.

 

[jmdirt]

Recommendations re Vitamin D:

Vitamin D Determines Severity in COVID-19: Researchers Urge Government to Change Advice

Trinity College Dublin researchers point to changes in government advice in Wales, England and Scotland. Researchers from Trinity College Dublin are calling on the government in Ireland to change recommendations for vitamin D supplements. A new publication from Dr. Eamon Laird and Professor Ro

scitechdaily.com

I saw this a few days ago and thought, unless they have vit D levels for all C19 deaths, this is just an advertisement.

Single factor longitudinal studies in a novel pandemic, you could have 50 of them that read just like this. It would be nice though if it was as simple as taking more vit D, but I think that it will be just like taking vit C for other coronavirus,

 

[Chris Gadsden]

This guy is a moron

Portnoy is anything but a moron. What he's talking about is something foreign to you. He built an enterprise over two decades and would rather take his chance with COVID than watch his life's work go down in flames. If you had ever built anything you might have some empathy but by your own declaration you are financially sound for the next 15 years without seeing another paycheck.

That gives you comfort that very few of your fellow citizens have. And btw, within an couple of hours of his of his posting the vid it had been viewed something over 5 million times. To summarize, the longer this idiotic lock-down continues the less of a minority his position becomes.

EDIT: Weird things going on trying to post this. The word processing dropped and cropped a bunch of words in this original post. Admin help?

 

[djpbaltimore]

More chloroquine failure. Double-barreled.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261070376051720192

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1261070376051720192


This one is interesting and not just for the findings of those infected. But they also found that some unexposed individuals had CD4 T cells that could recognize COVID-19. That suggests that there is some potential cross reactivity with previous endemic CoVs (doubtful they came from SARS 1.0). That could be a potential contribution to why some places are more protected, or it could be totally unrelated. CD4 T cells don't make antibodies themselves, but they do help B cells become activated to make antibody. It is harder to detect these cells, especially in the clinic. These results bode well for some immunity. The durability remains an open question.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261052353773363200

View: https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1261052353773363200

 

[Nomad]

One of the most remarkable stories of this pandemic is SE Asia. Eight countries—Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanamar, Singapore, Brunei, Timor, and Laos—have a combined population of about 250 million people, yet less than 100 deaths, combined. Singapore has about 25,000 cases, and Thailand about 3000, but the other six countries combined (175 million people) have only about 775 cases and just 7 deaths, total.

Throw in the other three—Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines—adding a combined 415 million people, and still only about 33,000 cases and 1900 deaths. So all told, for a region with about twice as many people as the U.S., a total of about 62,000 cases and 2000 deaths.

Then you could throw in three other countries/states in that general region--Taiwan, S. Korea and Hong Kong--with a combined population of about 80 million, and they add just 12,500 cases and 270 deaths, 90% or more from S. Korea.

Very strange...any theories? Could there be two strains - one much weaker and less potent than the other?

Anyway, clear across the globe is the former Soviet-block nation of Belarus. And the Belarusians who basically live under a dictatorship don't have a lockdown nor any social distancing rules: 156 deaths as of today for a country of 9.5 million:

Weiterleitungshinweis

Here's the Belarusians celebrating WW2 victory day this past weekend with a parade in front of tens of thousands of people packed together like sardines:

View: https://youtu.be/94J1Bd0busY


Here's Lukashenko in his hockey uniform giving his two-cents' worth on the coronavirus:

View: https://youtu.be/cm_N4xoEUws