Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Jagartrott]

A lot of interesting (speculative) information here:

Are we underestimating how many people are resistant to Covid-19?

Scientists are racing to work out why some populations are more protected against Covid-19 than others

www.theguardian.com

 

[BlueRoads]

While I see why it is very helpful for scientific reasons to know who is more at risk, I don't know if it actually helps "to protect the most vulnerable". Are people who think they are more at risk to stay at home without any physical contact for maybe years? (My grandparents are already doing that, they are staying at home, no person enters their home anymore, although in my opinion they need help, at least with the household and maybe even more...) Do we want to extend that to those who are statistically more at risk?
Because that's the implication in my opinion: Some people (me for instance, I'm female, not 40, not the weight I would wish, but not obese, no COPD, type 0 if I remember correctly) can go out, be happy, not worry, the others can or shall stay at home...
If there is a certain medical measure that can be assumed to be effective in a specific case of factors, than the knowledge helps. Otherwise it might just lead to social divisions and thinking of "who cares, not my problem" vs. "oh my god, I'm highly at risk".

 

[djpbaltimore]

Blood type varies quite a bit by country. But Japan has a relatively low frequency of O while Ecuador has a very high frequency of O. The roles are reversed for A types. So, it is interesting but I don't know if it is more than an ancillary reason for the observed spread or mortality.

 

[Nomad]

OK, 14, so how is that a "vast majority"?

I'll let one of the smarter, more articulate people explain the the worry.

C'mon...now, you're obfuscating. 14 reportedly tested positive - of that number only 2 reported symptoms (no hospitalizations) while the other 12 were asymptomatic. So, 85% were asymptomatic - wouldn't that be the "vast majority" out of the 14 total positives?

My point is that let's say out of the 14 the "vast majority" were hospitalized with some involving complications in the ICU, or even some deaths. Then I can see a very serious situation here where you shut down the season for good. But ICUs, hospitalizations and even moderate symptoms is not occurring with the pro athletes in any of the major sports in the U.S. (if you can find just one that was hospitalized then link it). For young pro athletes, it doesn't seem to as bad as the seasonal flu...the evidence bears this out. It's certainly not like anything close to the H1N1 Spanish flu where 50% of the deaths were involving those aged 20-40 yrs and 99% of all deaths were those under 65.

 

[jmdirt]

The blood type thing is interesting. Unfortunately I don't know what my blood type is and to have the test run for that insurance won't pay without a good reason so you have to pay out of pocket if you want to do.

I agree these type of studies are helpful. They also may help in finding ways to treat the virus.

Blood typing is pretty basic so a test at the doc in a box should only cost your co-pay, plus you can buy home kits I think.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm not a doctor but I did drill holes into hundreds of rat's skulls in the 1990's. Two suggestions:

1. Dilute your Type A with a massive infusion of Type O.
2. Calmly explain to the COVIDs that you aren't actually bald but just shaved your head.

Will 5W-30 work?
I don't think C19 will listen!

 

[jmdirt]

C'mon...now, you're obfuscating. 14 reportedly tested positive - of that number only 2 reported symptoms (no hospitalizations) while the other 12 were asymptomatic. So, 85% were asymptomatic - wouldn't that be the "vast majority" out of the 14 total positives?

My point is that let's say out of the 14 the "vast majority" were hospitalized with some involving complications in the ICU, or even some deaths. Then I can see a very serious situation here where you shut down the season for good. But ICUs, hospitalizations and even moderate symptoms is not occurring with the pro athletes in any of the major sports in the U.S. (if you can find just one that was hospitalized then link it). For young pro athletes, it doesn't seem to as bad as the seasonal flu...the evidence bears this out. It's certainly not like anything close to the H1N1 Spanish flu where 50% of the deaths were involving those aged 20-40 yrs and 99% of all deaths were those under 65.

Maybe I misunderstood your original post that said "a vast majority of players were asymptomatic" to mean that most of the NBA players had C19 but had no symptoms.

 

[Koronin]

Blood typing is pretty basic so a test at the doc in a box should only cost your co-pay, plus you can buy home kits I think.

I specifically asked and was told that unless I'm pregnant or basically need surgery insurance won't pay for it. Basic test, but doesn't mean insurance wants to pay for it.

 

[jmdirt]

I specifically asked and was told that unless I'm pregnant or basically need surgery insurance won't pay for it. Basic test, but doesn't mean insurance wants to pay for it.

I guess that you need to get pregnant then! Maybe next time you're in for your yearly ask your doc what a blood panel with typing costs because it might be inexpensive out of pocket. Or maybe even check to see if your blood type is already in your file. It might be worth researching the home kits too. Or maybe you don't care enough to spend any money on it.

 

[Koronin]

I guess that you need to get pregnant then! Maybe next time you're in for your yearly ask your doc what a blood panel with typing costs because it might be inexpensive out of pocket. Or maybe even check to see if your blood type is already in your file. It might be worth researching the home kits too. Or maybe you don't care enough to spend any money on it.

That's not happening. There's a reason I had my tubes tied a few years ago. (Part of that is my mom's pregnancies were extremely difficult to the point that my grandparents raised me when she was pregnant with my sisters). Unfortunately it was when I got my results of the blood work this year that I asked about it. Next time I need blood work done I'll ask if we can have that included. Unfortunately I know my blood type isn't in my files. If it was at one time due to moving and switching doctors somewhere along the line most of my past medical history got lost. I did ask my mom, but she doesn't know. If she was told when I was born she never got it written down anywhere. Hers is type A and my dad's was type O negative. What that means for me, no clue. I didn't know there were home kits, so I may look into those. Thanks.

 

[Jagartrott]

That means you should be either A or O.

Normally, this is how it goes:
A1O2 = A
B1O2 = B
O1O2 = O
A1B1 = AB

So combine 1 with 3, and you get basically 50% chance of A, 50% chance of O (your mother gives either 'her' A1 or her O2, your father only has O to give). At least that's how I remember it. Probably there are some small discrepancies in the actual probabilities. For Rhesus factor, that'd depend on your mother then. My mom is A, my dad B, so that gives a c. 25% chance for any of the 4 blood types (and I got AB).

Edit: I didn't think of the AA and BB, so see Merckx' explanation

 

[Koronin]

That means you should be either A or O.

Normally, this is how it goes:
A1O2 = A
B1O2 = B
O1O2 = O
A1B1 = AB

So combine 1 with 3, and you get basically 50% chance of A, 50% chance of O (your mother gives either 'her' A1 or her O2, your father only has O to give). At least that's how I remember it. Probably there are some small discrepancies in the actual probabilities. For Rhesus factor, that'd depend on your mother then. My mom is A, my dad B, so that gives a c. 25% chance for any of the 4 blood types (and I got AB).

Thanks.

 

[movingtarget]

Cloned antibodies

Breakthrough close on coronavirus antibody therapy: reports

Scientists say injection of cloned antibodies could help treat people already infected, while vaccine development continues

www.theguardian.com

 

[Merckx index]

Calmly explain to the COVIDs that you aren't actually bald but just shaved your head.

I was going to suggest, half-seriously, that the same folks who ingested fish aquarium cleaner thinking it was HCQ would make a run on rogaine.

Are people who think they are more at risk to stay at home without any physical contact for maybe years?

That's what I'm wondering. i really don't think the "we'll protect the old folks" group has thought this through.

14 reportedly tested positive - of that number only 2 reported symptoms (no hospitalizations) while the other 12 were asymptomatic

Some may have been presymptomatic. Usually, cases that are asymptomatic at the time of testing are not followed up.

That means you should be either A or O.

A type A parent can be either AA or AO. If AA, and the other parent is O, then all the children will be AO, which is type A. If AO, then half the children will be AO, type A, and half OO, type O.

The proportions of blood types in the U.S. are:

O 44%
A 42%
B 10%
AB 4%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_type_distribution_by_country

From these data, we can calculate the approximate allele frequencies:

O .66
A .26
B .08

This means that about 80% of type A individuals have the AO genotype, rather than AA. [AO is (.66 x .26) x 2 = .34; AA is .26 x.26 = .08. .34/(.34 + .08) = .81] So if a type A individual, genotype unknown, has a child with a type O genotype, the probability that the child is type O is about 40% (80% x 50%).

 

[Merckx index]

Great interview with Sean Penn, whose group is focussing on testing. Very realistic.

https://www.pbs.org/video/sean-penn-feetzm/

 

[djpbaltimore]

There are still a large number of people that are reticent about returning to normal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1269985963276750850

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1269985963276750850

 

[jmdirt]

Great interview with Sean Penn, whose group is focussing on testing. Very realistic.

https://www.pbs.org/video/sean-penn-feetzm/

I posted that in the movie thread last month because we were discussing Sean. I didn't post it here because at the time we had someone who would have replied: "You just can't stop posting politics...sad". Even though politics isn't the message.

EDIT: He's an interesting guy, who does good things.

EDIT: Sorry for the edits, but I'm working too. From a personal/professional standpoint, I wonder how my company will address testing once we are all in the same buildings again. In April they discussed testing everyone every Monday morning, but the 25% or so of our employees who are at the facility are just taking temperature every morning (with a great deal of physical distance during the day). Will it be logistically possible to test everyone every Monday morning? At this point, I don't think that they can get enough tests, let alone spend that amount of money (they will sub-contract it out). I am tentatively scheduled to transition back as soon as the end of July.

 

[Nomad]

The baldness association is apparently related to androgen levels. A couple of studies of men admitted to hospitals found that more than 70% of them were bald. Still, age is the most important factor.

Most definitely - looking at Sweden's death statistics bears this out:

Sweden: coronavirus deaths by age groups 2023| Statista

As of January 11, 2023, the highest number of deaths due to the coronavirus in Sweden was among individuals aged 80 to 90 years old.

www.statista.com

As of today a total of 4,694 reported deaths: 4,154 - 70 yrs and older (88%).

1,930 are from the 80-89 age group.

339 are from the 60-69 group tripling to 1,031 in the 70-79 age group.

Significant immune function appears to decline in the 70's. Young, healthy people have an extremely low risk of dying from the virus.

 

[jmdirt]

There are still a large number of people that are reticent about returning to normal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1269985963276750850

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1269985963276750850

This is what I was discussing just before states started phasing 'open'. Business owners/workers were protesting that being closed was killing their livelihood, but what happens if they open and just bleed money because not enough people are willing to eat in their restaurant? If they are closed they aren't making money, but at least they aren't losing money.

 

[Oldermanish]

This is what I was discussing just before states started phasing 'open'. Business owners/workers were protesting that being closed was killing their livelihood, but what happens if they open and just bleed money because not enough people are willing to eat in their restaurant? If they are closed they aren't making money, but at least they aren't losing money.

Very good point. The same definitely holds for a manufacturing operation that also relies on outsourced components; any link in the supply chain that doesn't perform could affect it all. Costs of closure are never cheap and employee morale is/should be a consideration.
Self sufficient businesses with lots of equity in their operations are obviously at lower risk and have a good competitive advantage.
In tandem with these points: Look at the US stock market. Investors, many new, are looking for the first horse out of the chute. Airline stocks, for example, took a big bump because the assumption is people will travel. Looking at DJP's post above that consumer sentiment may be difficult to translate into sales before this quarter's end. Very few carriers have enough cash to wait out a prolonged downturn and I suspect that recognition will lead to another sell out panic. Even more solid, low debt carriers like Alaska Air get caught in the sell out. That trend tends to lead the market as well....We'll see.

 

[BlueRoads]

Regarding restaurants: I don't know about the US, but I'd think around here almost all restaurants and bars are leased properties, so they have to pay the rent whether they open or not? And the rent will be the biggest cost?

What I am still wondering: Is it mainly the weaker immune-system of the elderly that makes them more vulnerable? Then why are small infants hardly in danger? Or is it something like the worse blood circulation or a lower/ higher production rate of something? What I mean: Are people for instance in refugee camps or in Haiti at high risk because of their health condition? Or is the death rate among them lower because the population is younger?

 

[Koronin]

Regarding restaurants: I don't know about the US, but I'd think around here almost all restaurants and bars are leased properties, so they have to pay the rent whether they open or not? And the rent will be the biggest cost?

What I am still wondering: Is it mainly the weaker immune-system of the elderly that makes them more vulnerable? Then why are small infants hardly in danger? Or is it something like the worse blood circulation or a lower/ higher production rate of something? What I mean: Are people for instance in refugee camps or in Haiti at high risk because of their health condition? Or is the death rate among them lower because the population is younger?

At least what I am aware of it, restaurants in malls, plazas, and areas that are built around a specific store or plaza (even if they are in their own building) are rented or leased. If they have their own building on what is definitely it's own property then some are owned outright while others are leased. I know some fast food franchises own the property the restaurant is on and same goes for some locally owned restaurants.

Second part is interesting. However young infants do have some immunity from their mother. However, it appears that some autoimmune diseases don't seem to be as effected by it as others as well. All autoimmune diseases lead to weakened immune systems. (My husband has rheumatoid arthritis, works in a hospital in which there have been a handful of confirmed cases of employees and tested negative both covid test and antibody test). On the other hand it does appear that pregnant women are at high risk from Covid of having it affect the fetus. Something to do with it effecting the placenta.

 

[jmdirt]

Regarding restaurants: I don't know about the US, but I'd think around here almost all restaurants and bars are leased properties, so they have to pay the rent whether they open or not? And the rent will be the biggest cost?

What I am still wondering: Is it mainly the weaker immune-system of the elderly that makes them more vulnerable? Then why are small infants hardly in danger? Or is it something like the worse blood circulation or a lower/ higher production rate of something? What I mean: Are people for instance in refugee camps or in Haiti at high risk because of their health condition? Or is the death rate among them lower because the population is younger?

I can only assume because I've never owned a restaurant/bar/any business for that matter, certainly the cost of their space is high, but if they are closed they can get money to at least offset that cost. Once they open they not only have to pay that, but also employees (plus related costs), supplies (food/ingredients, beverage, etc...), utilities (higher than when closed). I don't the numbers, but I do know that most restaurants/bars don't make high margins when they are full so at what capacity do they not even break even? If physical distancing limits them to 50% are they breaking even? I would say probably not. But, now throw in that people aren't willing to dine in and they are at 25%...losing more money than when they were closed, I assume.

 

[Koronin]

I can only assume because I've never owned a restaurant/bar/any business for that matter, certainly the cost of their space is high, but if they are closed they can get money to at least offset that cost. Once they open they not only have to pay that, but also employees (plus related costs), supplies (food/ingredients, beverage, etc...), utilities (higher than when closed). I don't the numbers, but I do know that most restaurants/bars don't make high margins when they are full so at what capacity do they not even break even? If physical distancing limits them to 50% are they breaking even? I would say probably not. But, now throw in that people aren't willing to dine in and they are at 25%...losing more money than when they were closed, I assume.

I think it depends. There are some restaurants that have said they need around 40% capacity with take out to break even. One of our local pizza places was actually breaking even with take out only, but they have always had a higher take out business anyway. I suspect it depends on how much take out the restaurant typically has. Also ones that rely on "tourist" season are going to really struggle this year.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Infants do exhibit bad cases of COVID at higher rates than other children. One thing that may be protective is that they may get other viral infections like RSV, which may boost some bystander innate defenses to COVID. And as Koronin notes, some passive immunity is provided from the mother before and after birth and who likely would be infected if the infant gets COVID. There will be a lot of interest in how COVID might influence the development of asthma and other lung allergies down the road. Little kids look vulnerable, but they can actually withstand some really bad health scares. All their organs are fresh off the assembly line and they can withstand scary high fevers. Older people... not so much. They just can't handle the sickness as well in addition to having poorer immune systems on average.

I always hear that the margins on the liquor is higher than the food, so keeping the bars closed is a big hit on the pocketbook too. I have no desire to go into a restaurant at the moment, but I have used an online delivery service (DD) to support the local non-chain places that I hope to visit in the future. It is no contact delivery. I make my own drinks, but was really running low on wine, so I did visit a local winery last weekend that was doing outdoor seating. Good social distancing and masks were required except when you were seated at your table.