Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

Just an update on a possible treatment for Covid-19. Regeneron (who developed the antibody treatment for ebola that worked very well) is starting their human trials for their new antibody treatment for Covid-19 this week. They are doing 4 different trials with this treatment. 2 are as treatment and 2 are as a preventative. They are not claiming it can be a true vaccine, but there is a possibility it can give some protection to people who are most likely going to be exposed to Covid like healthcare workers.

Here's a link for info on this.

US human trials begin for first antibody cocktail that might treat and prevent Covid-19 | CNN

A medicine that may treat and prevent Covid-19 is now being tested in patients in multiple sites around the United States, according to an announcement Thursday from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.

www.cnn.com

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Opioid overdose deaths spike amid coronavirus pandemic in Cook County: Chicago health officials

https://abc7chicago.com/opioid-deaths-cook-county-coronavirus/6238048/

In Baltimore:

Fatalities related to cocaine, alcohol, benzodiazepine and methamphetamines also increased, in addition to those related to opioids. Many of the other substances were used in combination with opioids, the state report says.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/health...0200611-r5pvlyzqrffo3ndvwc2oh3y7cy-story.html

 

[movingtarget]

Opioid overdose deaths spike amid coronavirus pandemic in Cook County: Chicago health officials

https://abc7chicago.com/opioid-deaths-cook-county-coronavirus/6238048/

In Baltimore:

Fatalities related to cocaine, alcohol, benzodiazepine and methamphetamines also increased, in addition to those related to opioids. Many of the other substances were used in combination with opioids, the state report says.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/health...0200611-r5pvlyzqrffo3ndvwc2oh3y7cy-story.html

No one talking much about mental health issues much during the pandemic. The media touches on it now and then but domstic violence issues, suicide, anxiety etc not much. Not to mention social issues for the elderly. Many countries have noted quite a few older people being found dead at home after many days deceased and this is in first world countries. Also the point about vulnerable people being scared away from visiting doctors or medical centres. In other words ignoring their existing health issues due to fear of infection. No doubt it's contributed to the death toll.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Chris didn't read the article. It had data for the first quarter of the year (i.e. through the end of march). When did lockdown start? March 30.

Also missing detail from the quote. The increase was 2.6%, which would still be less than 2018. I seriously think they framed this as covid related to get clicks. The evidence that this is related is thin.

 

[Merckx index]

No one talking much about mental health issues much during the pandemic.

I guess it depends on what sites you frequent. I have seen many, many articles discussing these issues, including estimates that more people will die because of the lockdowns than would die if the economy was open. It has been a major bone of contention of those who oppose lockdowns.

If anything has been under-reported, it's the fact that the U.S. is conducting far fewer tests than virtually all authorities recommended months ago.

 

[jmdirt]

No one talking much about mental health issues much during the pandemic. The media touches on it now and then but domstic violence issues, suicide, anxiety etc not much. Not to mention social issues for the elderly. Many countries have noted quite a few older people being found dead at home after many days deceased and this is in first world countries. Also the point about vulnerable people being scared away from visiting doctors or medical centres. In other words ignoring their existing health issues due to fear of infection. No doubt it's contributed to the death toll.

I hear or read about it every day. I don't know if its covered enough, but its getting covered some at least.

I just spent about 80 minutes talking with a veteran about his nephew (care giver) who only has a few more days left of his quarantine before he can come back and be the care giver again. I talk to this guy somewhat frequently and he can be pretty interesting sometimes, but today we had the same conversation over and over. I'm good with that though because he doesn't have the same stimulation as when his nephew is there. His nurse from the vets, who is filling in for his nephew, is really cool so that's a bonus!

 

[8472]

Indirect evidence, but intriguing nevertheless:


Satellite imagery showing spikes in vehicles outside major hospitals in Wuhan last winter suggest the coronavirus may have been present and spreading in the city months before authorities acknowledged the disease.

Researchers from Harvard Medical School, Boston University of Public Health and Boston Children’s Hospital analysed satellite imagery of the parking lots of major hospitals in Wuhan between 9 Jan 2018 and 30 April, 2020, as well as internet search trends.

According to the study, which is still under peer review, vehicle counts extracted from the high-resolution images of Wuhan hospital parking lots showed a “steep increase” starting in August 2019 and peaking in December 2019. Between September and October, five of the six hospitals analysed saw their highest daily volume of cars.

Search query terms for “diarrhoea” and “cough” show a large increase about 3 weeks before the spike in confirmed Covid-19 cases in late 2019, the study said.

The authors said that while they cannot confirm if the increased vehicle volume was directly related to the new virus, the evidence “supports other recent work showing that emergence happened before identification at the Huanan Seafood market,” in late December when Chinese officials reported a cluster at the market in central Wuhan.

“These findings also corroborate the hypothesis that the virus emerged naturally in southern China and was potentially already circulating at the time of the Wuhan cluster,” the report said.

“Something was happening in October,” John S Brownstein of Boston Children’s Hospital told ABC News. “Clearly, there was some level of social disruption taking place well before what was previously identified as the start of the novel coronavirus pandemic.”

This is a scientifically flawed study that will never pass peer review, or will be promptly retracted even if it somehow passes the review stage. Anyone who understands even a little about epidemiology or science in general will be shaking their heads in disbelief at this laughably scientifically false study that not only craps upon all the principles of epidemiology, but also makes blatantly false/doctored images to push their speculations/lies as conclusions. Yes, they used images from different angles on purpose, with buildings that blocked the view of cars for those taken in 2018, compared to a straight down vertical angle for those taken in 2019, and what do you think will happen to the number of cars when the photo angle includes a building that blocks off the view of a parking lot? Also, just from the position of shadows you can clearly see that the photos from 2018 were taken at a different time than those from 2019, and lo and behind, for 2019: "satellite picture was taken by RS Metrics, who used a satellite system which transits China around 10am, while a 2018 picture of Wuhan's Tongji Hospital suggest it was taken by Worldview-1 satellite, whose transit time is around 1pm."

Doctors reject 'error-filled' Harvard paper - People's Daily Online

Firefighters gather to prepare for disinfection works at the Wuhan Railway Station in Wuhan, ce

en.people.cn

It gets even worse. The ridiculous "parking lot" theory only compares the number of cars from 2019 vs 2018, rather than a yearly average of the whole decade for example, but even that's an improvement to the next theory pushed by the paper: web search results for symptoms of cough and diarrhoea, which only utilized the results from the year 2019 alone. They concluded that an increase in web searches for these terms from pre-September to November demonstrated that people had contracted the virus much earlier. But they neglected to mention that there were much steeper upward trends of those search terms over the same time period in both 2017 and 2018 (same link as above). Shameful.

 

[Unchained]

While I see why it is very helpful for scientific reasons to know who is more at risk, I don't know if it actually helps "to protect the most vulnerable". Are people who think they are more at risk to stay at home without any physical contact for maybe years? (My grandparents are already doing that, they are staying at home, no person enters their home anymore, although in my opinion they need help, at least with the household and maybe even more...) Do we want to extend that to those who are statistically more at risk?
Because that's the implication in my opinion: Some people (me for instance, I'm female, not 40, not the weight I would wish, but not obese, no COPD, type 0 if I remember correctly) can go out, be happy, not worry, the others can or shall stay at home...
If there is a certain medical measure that can be assumed to be effective in a specific case of factors, than the knowledge helps. Otherwise it might just lead to social divisions and thinking of "who cares, not my problem" vs. "oh my god, I'm highly at risk".

it may take you in a different direction if you take your view from an American only perspective. Just go in a start to finish Covid admissions,treatment and release and then the other,which is instead of release,death. There is a dollar figure attached to EVERYTHING in the American medical system. Paper products and medical gloves are part of your billing during the ambulance ride to the hospital. Very,very,very little public data is available about what a hospital stay costs for Covid 19 cases. No data on " the most vulnerable " to whatever the average patient profile looks like. cool
In other countries..nobody thinks a fall from your bike,some road rash,a broken arm\ collar bone starts with a @$1000-3000 dollar ambulance ride. That's not treatment,that's the ride in the ambulance..an overnight stay in the hospital is breathtakingly expensive.
And again for an American,you have NO idea how much is being charged for anything.
A Covid care stay with or wo a ventilator is for certain @$125,000+ for 10-15 days..and if the final bill for 2 weeks in intensive care is less than $200,000 dollars,consider yourself lucky..very lucky.
The overall cost for Covid 19..soup to nuts..medical alone will be in the billions,testing for the asymptomatic to the gravely ill..
In America there is absolutely no such thing as the most vulnerable..if you get it..and it lasts..2 weeks to...whenever..you will most likely lose almost everything..if there is a coverage controversy or shortcoming you will lose everything..all your money..your house.. everything..
Dying from Covid 19 may have been the least painful path for many individuals and families..hardly hyperbole or opinion..stark ugly reality about American health care.

 

[Koronin]

it may take you in a different direction if you take your view from an American only perspective. Just go in a start to finish Covid admissions,treatment and release and then the other,which is instead of release,death. There is a dollar figure attached to EVERYTHING in the American medical system. Paper products and medical gloves are part of your billing during the ambulance ride to the hospital. Very,very,very little public data is available about what a hospital stay costs for Covid 19 cases. No data on " the most vulnerable " to whatever the average patient profile looks like. cool
In other countries..nobody thinks a fall from your bike,some road rash,a broken arm\ collar bone starts with a @$1000-3000 dollar ambulance ride. That's not treatment,that's the ride in the ambulance..an overnight stay in the hospital is breathtakingly expensive.
And again for an American,you have NO idea how much is being charged for anything.
A Covid care stay with or wo a ventilator is for certain @$125,000+ for 10-15 days..and if the final bill for 2 weeks in intensive care is less than $200,000 dollars,consider yourself lucky..very lucky.
The overall cost for Covid 19..soup to nuts..medical alone will be in the billions,testing for the asymptomatic to the gravely ill..
In America there is absolutely no such thing as the most vulnerable..if you get it..and it lasts..2 weeks to...whenever..you will most likely lose almost everything..if there is a coverage controversy or shortcoming you will lose everything..all your money..your house.. everything..
Dying from Covid 19 may have been the least painful path for many individuals and families..hardly hyperbole or opinion..stark ugly reality about American health care.

That doesn't take into account that missing two weeks of work could cost you your home.

However, what is stated above is also why a treatment before you end up in the hospital is so important. Unfortunately who knows what the cost for that is going to be either.

 

[Merckx index]

A Covid care stay with or wo a ventilator is for certain @$125,000+ for 10-15 days..and if the final bill for 2 weeks in intensive care is less than $200,000 dollars,consider yourself lucky..very lucky.

That's with no insurance, of course. The government may pay the costs of treatment for uninsured, but it's up to the hospital to apply for that. So an uninsured person can't just check in to a hospital and be certain of having the costs taken care of.

If you have insurance with certain companies, or live in certain states, your treatment costs may be waived. I read of one critical case where the guy received a bill of $320,000, and ended up not having to pay anything. But that may not apply if you go to a on out-of-network hospital, or even if you don't, but some of the doctors who treat you are not in the network. One estimate I saw said that on average, people with employer-based insurance end up paying half of the costs of those with no insurance. Medicare is much lower (after an initial out-of-pocket cost, hospitalization up to 60 days is free, though that doesn't cover doctors, tests, etc. ), and Medicare with a supplemental plan may be free.

https://qz.com/1853315/the-cost-of-coronavirus-care-depends-on-where-americans-live/

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-treatment-testing-costs-2020-3

Interesting that we haven't discussed this before on this thread (that I recall), given that it affects all of us Americans. Of course, it's a powerful argument to those who say that C19 is no big deal for anyone but the old and sick. It also makes one wonder what the real hospitalization numbers in the U.S. would be if many people didn't avoid this because of the cost. Not to mention that the prognosis worsens if hospitalization is delayed beyond the appearance of the first serious symptoms.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Chris didn't read the article. It had data for the first quarter of the year (i.e. through the end of march). When did lockdown start? March 30.

Also missing detail from the quote. The increase was 2.6%, which would still be less than 2018. I seriously think they framed this as covid related to get clicks. The evidence that this is related is thin.

Chris read the articles. Here’s more thin evidence:

The AMA is greatly concerned by an increasing number of reports from national, state and local media suggesting increases in opioid-related mortality—particularly from illicitly manufactured fentanyl and fentanyl analogs. More than 30 states have reported increases in opioid-related mortality as well as ongoing concerns for those with a mental illness or substance use disorder in counties and other areas within the state.

https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-06/issue-brief-increases-in-opioid-related-overdose.pdf

 

[djpbaltimore]

If anything has been under-reported, it's the fact that the U.S. is conducting far fewer tests than virtually all authorities recommended months ago.

I totally agree. There has been bottlenecking in terms of reagents and swabs, but I think the larger problem is hardware. The platform based machines running these samples are finite and are running 24-7 in some cases. If anything, we might see a slight dip in testing numbers as some of these machines have to be taken out of service for maintenance and repairs. I have heard that potential home based testing is still months away. I think for the time being, there should be pooling of samples to test more people, especially if you expect low positivity rates.

This would be an important development.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1271355652783431680

View: https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1271355652783431680

 

[Unchained]

Just does are talking abou about the same things,my kind gentleman,Merckx, I am referring to the cost..not insurance status,or out of pocket \ co-pay. There are a pile of semi humorous videos on YouTube w people,Americans and Europeans making guesses on how much a medical procedure costs in the US. Some of the funnier reactions,when Europeans guess the cost of routine child delivery.
I find that the sudden discussions about Americans and their health care is astounding. A whole body approach has in an instant been thrust into the public consciousness.
Covid 19 has basics being pondered..examples everywhere,
Sick days..if you are sick and your job- employment situation doesn't afford a provision for paid days off..the entire public is at risk,that's the sick McDonald's or meat processor.
Mental health..people under normal to life threatening stress..from family issues,job loss or a mountain of evidence about depression and anxiety.
Uninsured,if a person is experiencing symptoms from whatever,there is widespread reluctance to address the problem in a clinical setting..again lack of access by some threatens all.
And the snake is coming,when millions who have experienced job loss will change status from insured thru work to uninsured..that will include family members..the snake, COBRA is a provision that allows the displaced workers to keep paying their medical insurance,often at $1000's per month.
In 2009 my COBRA payment burden was @$1501 per month..way way outside anything I could pay indefinitely.
My math on Covid 19 is crude for sure, but even roughly for every 10-12 patients admitted to the hospital in need of a 7+ day stay a guess at the low end would be in the @$1 million dollar range. So for an overall strategy,keeping people out of the hospital is always going to be cheaper. I have listened daily to people that lean hard into the isolation - shut down strategy,and on the other end..a discussion that pushes the economic loss metric as paramount. I personally don't see it,especially given overall household income levels, if a household making @$40-50,000 per year experiences a hospitalization,@$100,000 minimum..
Covid has forced the hands of most,relying on an overall American luck strategy.
I certainly don't know the answer, medical friend in the greater Phoenix area says she has never seen anything like this in @21 years of nursing, many facilities at capacity..
Here in California we are entering part 3 of a 4 part reopening plan.

 

[Koronin]

Just does are talking abou about the same things,my kind gentleman,Merckx, I am referring to the cost..not insurance status,or out of pocket \ co-pay. There are a pile of semi humorous videos on YouTube w people,Americans and Europeans making guesses on how much a medical procedure costs in the US. Some of the funnier reactions,when Europeans guess the cost of routine child delivery.

I've had some interesting discussions on this with several friends in Spain. When they find out they are in shock.

 

[BlueRoads]

it may take you in a different direction if you take your view from an American only perspective. Just go in a start to finish Covid admissions,treatment and release and then the other,which is instead of release,death. There is a dollar figure attached to EVERYTHING in the American medical system. Paper products and medical gloves are part of your billing during the ambulance ride to the hospital. Very,very,very little public data is available about what a hospital stay costs for Covid 19 cases. No data on " the most vulnerable " to whatever the average patient profile looks like. cool
In other countries..nobody thinks a fall from your bike,some road rash,a broken arm\ collar bone starts with a @$1000-3000 dollar ambulance ride. That's not treatment,that's the ride in the ambulance..an overnight stay in the hospital is breathtakingly expensive.
And again for an American,you have NO idea how much is being charged for anything.
A Covid care stay with or wo a ventilator is for certain @$125,000+ for 10-15 days..and if the final bill for 2 weeks in intensive care is less than $200,000 dollars,consider yourself lucky..very lucky.
The overall cost for Covid 19..soup to nuts..medical alone will be in the billions,testing for the asymptomatic to the gravely ill..
In America there is absolutely no such thing as the most vulnerable..if you get it..and it lasts..2 weeks to...whenever..you will most likely lose almost everything..if there is a coverage controversy or shortcoming you will lose everything..all your money..your house.. everything..
Dying from Covid 19 may have been the least painful path for many individuals and families..hardly hyperbole or opinion..stark ugly reality about American health care.

The ambulance ride here is insanely expensive, too. But health insurance will usually pay for it. (Sometimes they try to avoid it, like when my sister was feeling unwell during a training, someone called an ambulance although she did not want one, and they send my parents the bill...)
Health insurance can be really expensive, mostly depending on your income, but yes, I'm thankful everyone, including me, has it. I often think we don't appreciate it enough. But okay, I think that was not your point.
Well, I think the only problem here with the covering of the costs is in work/school settings where someone has been tested positive. All the contacts are tracked (they try to at least) and told to self-isolate (legally binding), but sometimes it's not clear who should pay for the tests or those responsible don't want to pay. So the contacts of the contacts won't get tested / informed necessarily (because they are contacts of someone self-isolating, not contacts of someone tested positive.)
I suppose so far the tracking works well. It will become a lot more difficult with everything opening, but hey, that's what we are getting the tracing app for. I'm still not sure whether to download it. I'm actually completely against the concept, but I wonder whether I'm being nonsensical here.

 

[Merckx index]

This would be an important development.

Very interesting paper, and I have little doubt that masks are an important tool, but I'm not totally convinced that by themselves they stop the spread of the virus. The Philippines has had a mandatory face mask order in place since the beginning of April, and for a while, daily cases flattened. But in the past two and a half weeks, there has been a major spike in new cases. Why?

One problem with the analysis is that there are no actual data on face mask use. The authors simply assume (through no fault of their own, this is all they can do) that an order to use face masks is followed by compliance. Usually that happens, sometimes maybe it doesn't. It's easier to cheat on a face mask order than on a stay-at-home order. We've all seen examples of people who refuse to go along, from the President on down (or on up). And in the other direction, many people will wear masks regardless of whether they're required to or not.

In addition, face masks can make matters worse, if people constantly remove them to put something into their mouth, touch their face to adjust them, et al. I'm not saying they're not a good idea, but factors like these can cut into their overall social effectiveness. It seems to me that one positive effect of stay-at-home orders not considered is that the less time you spend outside of your home, the easier it is to wear a mask. Wearing one for an hour or two on a shopping trip is not as burdensome as wearing one all day while working.

I totally agree. There has been bottlenecking in terms of reagents and swabs, but I think the larger problem is hardware. The platform based machines running these samples are finite and are running 24-7 in some cases. If anything, we might see a slight dip in testing numbers as some of these machines have to be taken out of service for maintenance and repairs. I have heard that potential home based testing is still months away. I think for the time being, there should be pooling of samples to test more people, especially if you expect low positivity rates.

The U.S. is way down the list of tests/million people. Is this really a hardware problem? Do other countries have more machines per population unit? The NBA says it plans to test every player and others associated with the league every day, once the season resumes. Are they commandeering machines that are needed for testing of the general population?

I don't know the answers to these questions, I just wonder if there really are physical reasons why we can't increase the number of tests, or it's a lack of political will. And of course, even if there is a machine shortage, there has been plenty of time to manufacture more.

 

[movingtarget]

it may take you in a different direction if you take your view from an American only perspective. Just go in a start to finish Covid admissions,treatment and release and then the other,which is instead of release,death. There is a dollar figure attached to EVERYTHING in the American medical system. Paper products and medical gloves are part of your billing during the ambulance ride to the hospital. Very,very,very little public data is available about what a hospital stay costs for Covid 19 cases. No data on " the most vulnerable " to whatever the average patient profile looks like. cool
In other countries..nobody thinks a fall from your bike,some road rash,a broken arm\ collar bone starts with a @$1000-3000 dollar ambulance ride. That's not treatment,that's the ride in the ambulance..an overnight stay in the hospital is breathtakingly expensive.
And again for an American,you have NO idea how much is being charged for anything.
A Covid care stay with or wo a ventilator is for certain @$125,000+ for 10-15 days..and if the final bill for 2 weeks in intensive care is less than $200,000 dollars,consider yourself lucky..very lucky.
The overall cost for Covid 19..soup to nuts..medical alone will be in the billions,testing for the asymptomatic to the gravely ill..
In America there is absolutely no such thing as the most vulnerable..if you get it..and it lasts..2 weeks to...whenever..you will most likely lose almost everything..if there is a coverage controversy or shortcoming you will lose everything..all your money..your house.. everything..
Dying from Covid 19 may have been the least painful path for many individuals and families..hardly hyperbole or opinion..stark ugly reality about American health care.

Ah the good old days when everyone got a free ambulance ride...............in Australia if you are not an aged or disabled pensioner or have no medical insurance then you pay the full amount. Often under 150 or 200 dollars. If you have any sort of medical insurance even just dental then the fund picks up the ambulance costs. One state in Australia being Queensland have ambulance cover for all, in all situations even if you need treatment in another state. But if you have an accident in a remote area and need a airlift by plane or helicopter and you don't have medical insurance or live in QLD then you pay big. In some states the the medical insurance only covers the ambulance ride within that state. I'm sure many people don't realize that.

But the big plus in Australia is the public hospital system which is free for everyone that needs to be treated in one. The private side of the health system is there mainly for operations as the public system always has a waiting list of up to a year or more for non urgent cases. The problem with the private system in Australia is that many can't afford the increase in premiums and drop off the system putting more stress on the public system. The private system is partly funded by the government so state and federal governments are paying huge amounts towards health care and new technology, often expensive to run, keeps increasing costs. If you are in pain and need surgery quite quickly then you virtually have to use the private system. Many medical centres have bulk billing where the patient pays nothing to the doctor but they pay for their scripts of course and sometimes for certain tests. Other doctors charge a gap payment per visit which most people could afford except some pensioners . Scan and x ray costs vary but usually you only pay a gap payment if at all which is usually affordable. MRI scans are not covered but the costs are not that bad.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Very interesting paper, and I have little doubt that masks are an important tool, but I'm not totally convinced that by themselves they stop the spread of the virus. The Philippines has had a mandatory face mask order in place since the beginning of April, and for a while, daily cases flattened. But in the past two and a half weeks, there has been a major spike in new cases. Why?

One problem with the analysis is that there are no actual data on face mask use. The authors simply assume (through no fault of their own, this is all they can do) that an order to use face masks is followed by compliance. Usually that happens, sometimes maybe it doesn't. It's easier to cheat on a face mask order than on a stay-at-home order. We've all seen examples of people who refuse to go along, from the President on down (or on up). And in the other direction, many people will wear masks regardless of whether they're required to or not.

In addition, face masks can make matters worse, if people constantly remove them to put something into their mouth, touch their face to adjust them, et al. I'm not saying they're not a good idea, but factors like these can cut into their overall social effectiveness. It seems to me that one positive effect of stay-at-home orders not considered is that the less time you spend outside of your home, the easier it is to wear a mask. Wearing one for an hour or two on a shopping trip is not as burdensome as wearing one all day while working.



The U.S. is way down the list of tests/million people. Is this really a hardware problem? Do other countries have more machines per population unit? The NBA says it plans to test every player and others associated with the league every day, once the season resumes. Are they commandeering machines that are needed for testing of the general population?

I don't know the answers to these questions, I just wonder if there really are physical reasons why we can't increase the number of tests, or it's a lack of political will. And of course, even if there is a machine shortage, there has been plenty of time to manufacture more.

It does seem to be the latest problem. Osterholm has been talking about this when he had been on tv. He doesn't think we can scale up testing much beyond current capacity. It doesn't seem believable, but we could say that about much of 2020.

Coronavirus Testing Machines Are Latest Bottleneck In Troubled Supply Chain

Civilian labs and the Army say they've had trouble getting big machines that run hundreds of coronavirus tests at once. Public health experts say that's holding the U.S. back from ramping up testing.

www.npr.org

One thing I missed about the pnas paper is that it was submitted by the contributor track, so it is much more like a pre-print. It didn't go through a full peer review. Something to be aware of.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

One thing I missed about the pnas paper is that it was submitted by the contributor track, so it is much more like a pre-print. It didn't go through a full peer review. Something to be aware of.

I read the data section (skipped the science part). It is indeed a remarkable paper. If that is a typical face-covering paper then I can see why many scientists say that the evidence that face-coverings significantly reduce transmission is weak at best. They plot reported cases in New York over time and measure the slope over the few weeks between when Stay at Home was introduced and when Face-coverings was introduced, then again the few weeks after Face-coverings was introduced. I'll gloss over the problems of measuring reported cases and that they don't use weekly rolling averages and that it's arguable whether this kind of study can ever really show anything at all. The key flaw is that they don't even consider that each measure will only show up weeks later in the data due to the incubation period and reporting lag. Once you shift those reporting periods a couple of weeks later the conclusion is the opposite to what they are claiming

 

[Jagartrott]

A colleague and friend in Beijing already mailed me about this, but here's the news report:

Beijing reimposes lockdown measures after new Covid-19 outbreak

Dozens of domestically transmitted cases at city’s largest wholesale food market prompt move

www.theguardian.com

What I find remarkable, is the apparent high percentage of asymptomatics. Or are some of them pre-symptomatic?

 

[movingtarget]

A US man, 70, who battled coronavirus for two-months has been handed an enormous $1.6million (AUD) hospital bill.

Michael Flor, from Seattle, was hospitalised on March 4 with coronavirus and came so close to death once nurses held a phone to his ear so he could say bye to his family.

Upon his recovery, Mr Flor was released on May 5 amid cheers from healthcare workers.

Not long after leaving the Swedish Medical Center in Issaquah, he was slapped with an 181 page bill for his 62-day stint.


Michael Flor was in hospital for two months fighting the coronavirus and was released last month. Source: Q13 Fox
All up, Mr Flor was charged $US1,122,501.04, or roughly $A1,638,000, according to the Seattle Times.

The majority of the bill was attributed to medications, however, Mr Flor’s intensive care unit room cost $9,736 ($A14207) per day.

His time in the isolation chamber cost $US408,912 ($A596,712) and being on a ventilator for 29 days cost $US82,215 ($A119,973).




Fortunately, Mr Flor has health insurance and likely won’t have to pay for the bulk of the bill, or any of it thanks to $100billion set aside by the US government to help hospitals and insurance companies defray the costs of the pandemic.

Mr Flor said he left the hospital with a new appreciation for life.

“You have a second chance at relationships, with your wife, your kids, friends and stuff like that,” Mr Flor told Q13 Fox.



“There’s a sense of ‘why me?’ Why did I deserve all this? Looking at the incredible cost of it all definitely adds to that survivor’s guilt.”


However, even while he was battling the illness in hospital, he was concerned with the cost of the care he was receiving.

“You gotta get me out of here, we can’t afford this,” Mr Flor reportedly said to his wife at the start of his stint in hospital.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm sure that the regulars are ready to vomit over my mask broken record but: wearing a mask will reduce spread. The data with C19 is likely not accurate/valid because they are constantly chasing ever changing variables, but that doesn't change what we already know.
-Wearing a mask will keep some (we can debate amount/%) of your droplets from getting into the air and/or on things that other people touch.
-Wearing a mask will keep some (we can debate amount/%) of other peoples' droplets from getting into your respiratory system.
--both of those are why medical professionals wear them. As MI pointed out, people determine the effectiveness by how they use their mask, and of course the construction of the mask itself determines a lot (which is why I want to get a 95 as soon as the med stockpile is full).
-Physical distancing is the best plan!

I feel like some people are just too:
-stupid
-arrogant
-macho
-contrarian
-combo/other
to wear a mask. But I also feel that some people who really aren't one of the above, are searching for a reason not to wear one: "they're not 100% effective", "scientists can't decide", "the data is all over the place"...paralysis by analysis. Common sense can tell you a lot, but so can basic splatter tests (don't show aerosols). Reduce the load.

Wearing a mask is the right thing to do for your fellow human, and you might even be helping yourself out too.

 

[yaco]

A colleague and friend in Beijing already mailed me about this, but here's the news report:

Beijing reimposes lockdown measures after new Covid-19 outbreak

Dozens of domestically transmitted cases at city’s largest wholesale food market prompt move

www.theguardian.com

What I find remarkable, is the apparent high percentage of asymptomatics. Or are some of them pre-symptomatic?

Or are they post-symptomatic with traces of the virus from a long time ago.

 

[yaco]

I'm sure that the regulars are ready to vomit over my mask broken record but: wearing a mask will reduce spread. The data with C19 is likely not accurate/valid because they are constantly chasing ever changing variables, but that doesn't change what we already know.
-Wearing a mask will keep some (we can debate amount/%) of your droplets from getting into the air and/or on things that other people touch.
-Wearing a mask will keep some (we can debate amount/%) of other peoples' droplets from getting into your respiratory system.
--both of those are why medical professionals wear them. As MI pointed out, people determine the effectiveness by how they use their mask, and of course the construction of the mask itself determines a lot (which is why I want to get a 95 as soon as the med stockpile is full).
-Physical distancing is the best plan!

I feel like some people are just too:
-stupid
-arrogant
-macho
-contrarian
-combo/other
to wear a mask. But I also feel that some people who really aren't one of the above, are searching for a reason not to wear one: "they're not 100% effective", "scientists can't decide", "the data is all over the place"...paralysis by analysis. Common sense can tell you a lot, but so can basic splatter tests (don't show aerosols). Reduce the load.

Wearing a mask is the right thing to do for your fellow human, and you might even be helping yourself out too.

Actually I feel that masks are misused - People are reluctant to wear them in their workplace where there is often close and prolonged contact with others BUT wear them when walking down the street or similar.

 

[jmdirt]

Actually I feel that masks are misused - People are reluctant to wear them in their workplace where there is often close and prolonged contact with others BUT wear them when walking down the street or similar.

If you are physical distanced, especially outside, there is very little reason to wear a mask (for C19 reasons). I'm not sure why that makes sense to those people?

I'm working from home, but the people in my company who are working at the building try to stay at least 10 feet away from each other in their work space. Frequently they are the only one in an area of the building so their spacing is more like 200 feet and several walls. In common areas (bathrooms, kitchens, meeting rooms*) they wear masks even if no one else is there because eventually someone else will be in there.

*When most of us started working from home the people in the building would gather in meeting rooms once a day because 'that is how we always do it'. One day there was 10 of us wired in from home meeting with 6 sitting in a room at the building when a team leader (not mine) said "we're in a virtual meeting, why are we all gathered in this room?", she exited the room followed by four others. In about five minutes we restarted the meeting, from 16 different locations. It was an adjustment time, figuring out the new way (at least for a while) of doing things. The team leaders still physically meet almost daily, but with only 4 or 5 in a meeting room designed for 35ish, they can easily keep physical space.