Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Merckx index]

Saw a tweet that college admins are beginning to get cold feet about the NCAA Football season.

The NBA may be having second thoughts, too. In Orange County, where Orlando, site of the proposed bubble, is located, the positivity rate has jumped from 3% on June 4 to a high of more than 17%. The current 7 day rolling average is over 15%. MLB finally has a signed agreement for a very shortened season, but the games are to be played in the teams's home parks. How will that work when a team has to play in NYC, which has restrictions on travelers from other states? What happens when a NY team returns from a road trip?

On the bright side, there are about a dozen states, most of them in the east or midwest, that have reduced active cases to < 20% of total, which is very encouraging. Some of them, though, have reported enormous decreases literally overnight. IL, e.g., reported a decrease of more than 50,000 active cases, more than half its previous total, from May 30 to 31. MA reported a drop of more than 30,000 cases, about two-thirds of its previous total, from June 2 to June 3. PA: almost 30,000, more than half, from May 21 to May 22. LA: 15,000, 60%, from April 23 to April 24. How does that happen? Was there really that large a backlog of unreported recoveries? Was the criterion for recovery changed?

 

[Koronin]

The NBA may be having second thoughts, too. In Orange County, where Orlando, site of the proposed bubble, is located, the positivity rate has jumped from 3% on June 4 to a high of more than 17%. The current 7 day rolling average is over 15%. MLB finally has a signed agreement for a very shortened season, but the games are to be played in the teams's home parks. How will that work when a team has to play in NYC, which has restrictions on travelers from other states? What happens when a NY team returns from a road trip?

On the bright side, there are about a dozen states, most of them in the east or midwest, that have reduced active cases to < 20% of total, which is very encouraging. Some of them, though, have reported enormous decreases literally overnight. IL, e.g., reported a decrease of more than 50,000 active cases, more than half its previous total, from May 30 to 31. MA reported a drop of more than 30,000 cases, about two-thirds of its previous total, from June 2 to June 3. PA: almost 30,000, more than half, from May 21 to May 22. LA: 15,000, 60%, from April 23 to April 24. How does that happen? Was there really that large a backlog of unreported recoveries? Was the criterion for recovery changed?

It could be possible that recovered cases are being reported once per week or less often?

 

[movingtarget]

Indian authorities want to test everyone in New Delhi by 9 July............about 24 million tests I think...........

 

[movingtarget]

Good reason why only horse racing and Nascar is active at the moment. Golfers, basketballers, footballers, and baseball players are getting infected and their competitions haven't even started yet. Even full on team training hasn't even started. Japan is also talking about a scaled back version of the Olympics next year. Some of the older olympic competitors have decided to retire now instead of spending another year training for something that may not happen.

 

[Unchained]

I think a few may need to revisit US laws and education system. If Trump tells you to eat a malaria med, drink disinfectant,use lights on your body,that the virus will disappear on it's own,the virus will subside in warmer weather,the virus is contained -eradicated by not testing for it's existence..let me not type out the information he has expounded on masks and group gatherings of people unmasked.
NONE of that is political..that is medical advise given by the President of the United States..
if you think that the advice is valid,prudent to act on..different issues completely. He has issued volumes,often daily of medical advice and protocols.
again I am careful not to compare his medical recommendations to those offered by his staff of his opponents,medical or political

 

[Unchained]

Also clear,crystal clear..at a recent gathering in Phoenix,the church that hosted the event stated that the membership(?) Had developed a technology that eliminated @95% of the Covid 19 virus. No verification of this scientific - medical claim was proven before,during or after the event.
again not political,science based..many experts say science fiction.
if the technology exists why is it not being deployed world wide?
why is it's inventor(s) not coming forward to collect billions in residuals?

 

[movingtarget]

The timing of antibody tests

Antibody test accuracy lower during first 14 days of Covid-19 symptoms

Review reports 30% of people picked up by tests in first week against 90% in third week

www.theguardian.com

 

[Unchained]

It looks now that the US has 7-8% of the population exposed to the virus. The other @90+% of the population still to be exposed,time permitting.

 

[movingtarget]

Brain issues and Covid-19

Covid-19 may cause brain complications in some, say doctors

Stroke and psychosis found in small study of patients highlight need for research

www.theguardian.com

 

[Koronin]

It looks now that the US has 7-8% of the population exposed to the virus. The other @90+% of the population still to be exposed,time permitting.

Don't forget we still don't know how long immunity lasts if you already had it.

 

[Merckx index]

The timing of antibody tests

I don't understand why they even wrote an article on that. Of course antibody tests are less sensitive early after infection; it takes time for the body to develop the Abs. It's been pointed out all along that Ab tests don't pick up everyone who has been infected with the virus, because people very recently infected won't have the antibodies. Ab tests are definitely not a substitute for the PCR test, they shouldn't have even needed to point that out.

Indian authorities want to test everyone in New Delhi by 9 July............about 24 million tests I think...........

Well, China tested almost everyone in Wuhan in about three weeks.

Also clear,crystal clear..at a recent gathering in Phoenix,the church that hosted the event stated that the membership(?) Had developed a technology that eliminated @95% of the Covid 19 virus.

You know the spread of the virus is getting really bad when people reach this level of denial. The Governor of Texas is now considered reversing some of the re-opening, but I think still hasn't mandated wearing masks in public. Someone who was interviewed while waiting to attend the Trump rally in Phoenix defended not wearing a mask by saying the only reason for it is that "the government wants to see how much they can force you to do". How in the world do you talk about this pandemic by not talking about politics?

Don't forget we still don't know how long immunity lasts if you already had it.

Yes, if it turns out it lasts less than a year, then even if we reached the critical threshold of infected people, we still wouldn't have herd immunity.

 

[yaco]

Good reason why only horse racing and Nascar is active at the moment. Golfers, basketballers, footballers, and baseball players are getting infected and their competitions haven't even started yet. Even full on team training hasn't even started. Japan is also talking about a scaled back version of the Olympics next year. Some of the older olympic competitors have decided to retire now instead of spending another year training for something that may not happen.

But it is a positive that a rigorous testing system is identifying athletes with COVID 19 before the resumption of competition. Then you have a strong system of bio-security protocols and all should be fine.

 

[djpbaltimore]

But it is a positive that a rigorous testing system is identifying athletes with COVID 19 before the resumption of competition. Then you have a strong system of bio-security protocols and all should be fine.

Very true, but I question how secure the bubbles are going to be in practice. And how compliant the athletes will be with rules and policies that many will feel are too burdensome. The 'real' football startups in Europe have been successful so far, but there is a significantly lower viral burden in Germany et al. And that doesn't bring up other issues like the perception of football players practicing in training camp while their stadium is in use as an emergency ICU as has been mooted for the Houston football stadium. It is doable, but I just don't know how likely it is at this point.

A good visualization to show how deep in trouble Arizona is right now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1276332326511734784

View: https://twitter.com/PeterJ_Walker/status/1276332326511734784

ETA. Almost 9k new cases in Florida, beating the previous record of 5500. Some of that is due to record testing, but the percent positive was 13%. Trending in the wrong direction.

 

[Nomad]

M.pm.p

You know the spread of the virus is getting really bad when people reach this level of denial. The Governor of Texas is now considered reversing some of the re-opening, but I think still hasn't mandated wearing masks in public.

I don't think it matters much because law enforcement agencies across nation have said they're not going to enforce it. And I don't blame them at all. They're under tremendous scrutiny, defunding efforts are being initiated with some cities and many agencies are reporting high numbers of resignations & early retirements. So, given the current atmosphere with law enforcement, the last thing they want to become is the "mask police."

Government officials can strongly recommend masks but if it's not going to be enforced...some people just won't wear them.

Some Triangle law enforcement officers not issuing citations for state COVID-19 rule violations

While law enforcement has the authority to issue citations when it comes to state COVID-19 mandates, many North Carolina police departments said they're educating those violating the rules instead of citing them.

www.google.com

Region's law enforcement agencies show no interest in enforcing mandatory masks rule

North Central Washington law enforcement agencies appear to have no interest in enforcing Gov. Jay Inslee’s order that all Washington residents wear face coverings in public places. A short joint statement from the North Central Washington Law Enforcement Leadership group Wednesday said the...

www.ncwlife.com

 

[Oldermanish]

Sobering thread about states that are having issues outside the big four (AZ, FL, TX, CA.) The most egregious part is that some places are still using hospitalizations to dictate decision making. For the reasons mentioned below, that is just not going to work. The proverbial horses are already out of the barn by then. The next 10-14 days are going to be painful. Saw a tweet that college admins are beginning to get cold feet about the NCAA Football season. There is soooooo much money involved, but I just don't see how they can do training camps in 4-6 weeks. Still very skeptical of that happening.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275988103740751874

View: https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1275988103740751874

Looks like the "never closed" states are now about to feel the economic impact of a second shutdown. Florida, Texas are closing down alcohol service in bars. 16 new positives for NBA players, too.
No data in on attendees of the Tulsa rally but doubt any trends won't be widely reported.

And today: EU talking about suspended travel to EU by US citizens so there's that to pile on to the economic travails of airlines, entertainment parks and related service industries. The tax revenue fallout to states is not getting as much exposure as it deserves. Are there any countries that have managed an opening and some relative normalcy, economically?

 

[djpbaltimore]

New Zealand maybe?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1276557082326708224

View: https://twitter.com/LaurenEHanson/status/1276557082326708224

Barbosa’s mother, Carole, who stopped by the function to drop something off, tested positive for coronavrius June 6 and was admitted to the hospital a week later.

Barbosa said his father, Frank, who didn’t attend the get-together but later contracted COVID-19, was hospitalized June 17. He said his dad is currently “hanging on by a thread” in the ICU while on life support.

This is really a perfect case in point on how risky behavior can backfire. Most of the time it won't, but when it does, it will be heartbreaking. And it shows how easy spread in the young can precede hospitalization of the old. One possible glimmer of hope.

Frank received a plasma donation Wednesday from a recovered coronavirus patient,

Given how many people have been infected, immune plasma should be plentiful. So far, the mortality numbers continue to trend downward despite the uptick in cases. That could be due to a demographic difference. Mortality lags, so it might just mean that we haven't hit the upslope yet. But it also might be because we have better means of treatment. It bears watching.

 

[Keram]

Sorry if it was here. What do you think about this? https://www.catalannews.com/society...cted-in-barcelona-water-study-from-march-2019 I believe that Covid started sooner than november in China and could be in western Europe in december but march 2019 seems unreal to me. How could so contagious virus could be around almost year undetected?

 

[djpbaltimore]

I believe PCR contamination is the likely culprit on that one. Would be interesting if others could verify that finding with independent samples or case studies. I am sure researchers are combing old samples to look for serum positives. An earlier origin would not surprise me at all, but March might be too early to be realistic.

 

[Jagartrott]

New Zealand maybe?

A contraction of the economy of around 10% is predicted for 2020. Tourism is obviously hit hard. I think universities also rely on foreign students for their budgets. A position I applied for early March AUT was cancelled 'because of covid'.

 

[Koronin]

I read earlier today that the EU is close to giving Gilead's treatment medication Remdesivir emergency approval for use in treating Covid patients.

 

[Oldermanish]

A contraction of the economy of around 10% is predicted for 2020. Tourism is obviously hit hard. I think universities also rely on foreign students for their budgets. A position I applied for early March AUT was cancelled 'because of covid'.

Here's a link to a Houston bar owner's financial situation. Fairly thoughtful approach and it failed (it's the video after the ad, sorry):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...9-cases-analysis-shows/ar-BB160pSI?li=BBnb7Kz

 

[Merckx index]

Are there any countries that have managed an opening and some relative normalcy, economically?

Iceland had virtually eliminated all its active cases, when they began allowing foreign tourists again. They now report a handful of cases, but still very few.

So far, the mortality numbers continue to trend downward despite the uptick in cases. That could be due to a demographic difference. Mortality lags, so it might just mean that we haven't hit the upslope yet.

It's certainly too soon to rule out a lag in these states with a big spike in new cases. If it isn't just a lag, and the death rates remain relatively low, I wonder if it's because older people are now taking extra caution. i suspect that earlier in the pandemic, many old people thought it was sufficient just to practice social distancing. I think many of them are now avoiding going out at all. It could also be a selection phenomenon. Many of the boldest older people have contracted the disease, leaving more of the cautious types.

How could so contagious virus could be around almost year undetected?

I don't buy that March 2019 positive at all. From the article:

"All samples were negative, with the exception of March 12, 2019, where SARS-CoV-2 levels were very low but clearly positive for PCR and also using two different targets," the researcher explained.

How could there be positives in March, then none for another six months? Possibly, there was another strain of the virus, which contains the region used for PCR primers in common with SARS-CoV-2, but which is not as contagious. There's a researcher in England, can't remember his name, who claims (controversially) that the SARS-CoV-2 strain sequenced in late December in China was preceded by another strain in October or November. Still, March seems a stretch.

Another possibility to consider: the assumption is that the virus jumped from some other species to humans. That means that the precursor virus, either SARS-CoV-2 or an earlier form very similar in sequence, was infecting this other species for a while before humans started manifesting it. I don't know about Spain, but i could easily see tissue from such an animal, if it was purchased to be eaten, ending up in wastewater. People could have been eating an animal infected with a virus that hadn't quite evolved to the point where it could infect humans.

 

[Koronin]

Given how many people have been infected, immune plasma should be plentiful. So far, the mortality numbers continue to trend downward despite the uptick in cases. That could be due to a demographic difference. Mortality lags, so it might just mean that we haven't hit the upslope yet. But it also might be because we have better means of treatment. It bears watching.

This could partly be due to having an approved (albeit emergency approval) treatment. This would be both using antibodies from recovered patients along with Remdesivir. Plus Regeneron just started their trials of lab produced antibodies for treatment. That should be helping with lower death numbers. At least you think it would.

 

[Merckx index]

While many southern and western states are seeing a spike in cases, many of the northern and NE states that had such massive problems before have greatly reduced their new cases, particularly NY. Why is that? NY seems to be doing the right things, but there's probably another factor in play.

An antibody study run more than two months ago found that about 25% of the population in NYC had been infected. That's not close to herd immunity, but it can make a big difference. Herd immunity is reached when the % of the population with antibodies is enough to reduce the reproduction rate, R0, to 1. IOW, when on average, an infected person infects no more than one other person. At that point, the number of infections starts to decrease.

The formula for herd immunity is 1 - 1/R0. So if an infected person on average infects four other people, the level of immunity for herd immunity needs to be 1 - 1/4 = .75. A way of understanding this is that if you would have infected four other people on average, but on average three of those people have immunity, you will actually only infect one other person.

But while herd immunity is usually thought of as all-or-none--you either have a level at which the virus stops spreading, or doesn't--even lower levels can have an effect. If 25% of a population is immune, that means that the average number of other people that an infected person infects is reduced by 25%. Instead of four, for example, it would become three. So while the spread of the virus continues, it has been slowed down.

Moreover, if social distancing, masks, and other behaviors are practiced, the effective R0 can be reduced. If it's reduced to 3, then the level needed for "herd immunity" (in quotes, because establishing this is dependent on maintaining these behaviors indefinitely) becomes 67%. If it's 2, then 50% is sufficient. And if it's 1.33, then 25% would be enough. So even relatively low levels of immunity in a population can have a big effect on virus transmission if practices designed to reduced transmission are in play. It could be the decisive factor that pushes the situation from one in which the virus is spreading more slowly but persistently to one in which the virus spreading is stopped.

 

[del1962]

You're shifting from one thing to the other. That isn't compared to a benchmark. The WHO benchmark you poster earlier takes into account how many infections there are. Basically, you need to find 5% or less positive cases in your tests, or you should test more. Most European countries are around 1% positives, so they are good. Some American states are significantly above 5% positives, so they should do more tests, regardless of the number of tests per capita. It's about the number of tests per positive cases. Which makes total sense.

Looking at the Uk figures they are getting something like 1 in 165 positives per test (though some people get tested more than once), it also seems like they are testing around 1 in every 400 of the population daily