Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Merckx index]

Wow, daily new cases jumped to over 90,000 in the U.S. yesterday, and today it's very close to 100,000. This is about a one-third increase over the peak in July, and there's no reason to believe that the number has topped off.

A study by CNN found that in 14/17 communities where Trump held a rally, with his supporters typically maskless and bunched together, case rates rose dramatically a few weeks later. Some of that could be that rates were rising in those places, anyway, but the amount of rise in many communities was far higher than for the state as a whole.

I would think that major issues would have been corrected, and that this was not based on the interpretation of one person.

Again, I'm not criticizing their recommendations. But they are flat-out wrong about particle size and settling times. This is simple physics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275719/

if a droplet with an initial diameter of 50 μm shrinks to 10 μm, the speed at which it falls decreases from 6.8 cm⋅s−1 to about 0.35 cm⋅s−1.

You'll find many people who have bad genes & slow metabolism and have let themselves get obese. But through will power & mental fortitude have committed to a lifestyle of healthy nutrition & excercise losing tremendous amounts of weight.

Where do you think so-called will power comes from? You think it's created spontaneously in someone's head? Effects have causes. Sometimes people make the effort because they've educated themselves on how important it is to lose weight. The willingness to listen and change doesn't come out of thin air, it's a product of someone's environment, physiology and biochemistry. Same with the effort made to lose weight.

Newsflash. Free will, in the traditional sense of a force independent of mind and body, doesn't exist. It's not just incompatible with the scientific view of cause and effect. It's incoherent. We behave the way we do for reasons. Reasons are causes. We aren't some self-caused gods.

Yes...I've read the Freeman story several times and I have a perspective on it. His symptoms are identical to influenza.

How about Yoan Moncada? Think his symptoms are like those of the flu? How about Eduardo Rodriguez?

 

[movingtarget]

Genes? Slower metabolism? Don't get me started on this. Heck, I don't have the greatest genes (never could make it as a pro athlete) and have a slow metabolism. My parents were overweight and my father died of heart disease in his early 50s. I'm no spring chicken either, and sustained some significant injuries in a car accident 3 yrs ago. There are days I can barely get out of bed because of PTOA but somehow find the mental strength to get to the gym or go out for a ride or run. Plus I experienced a death with an immediate family member 6 yrs ago that tore our family apart and virtually gave me a nervous breakdown where I could have easily quit working out, start drinking excessively and pigged out on bad food all day.

You'll find many people who have bad genes & slow metabolism and have let themselves get obese. But through will power & mental fortitude have committed to a lifestyle of healthy nutrition & excercise losing tremendous amounts of weight. I've seen this many times over the years at the gym - incredible success stories. Old people, disabled people, people with PTSD, etc., all committed to losing weight and becoming healthy. For example, go look at Drew Carey's story - from obese and a diabetic to healthy, fit, & aerobically strong due to a commitment of healthy nutrition & daily excercise.

The majority of the obese in this country simply don't care and refuse to take personal responsibility for their health. As I said before, obesity is a preventive condition. And more & more young people are getting obese as well. It's estimated that ~40% of Americans are obese, which is deplorable! The thing that irks me is when I see a morbidly obese person in a store rolling around in a scooter with their cart full of the most unhealthy, toxic food known to mankind. I think to myself; I have to wear a mask and probably be forced to take Covid vaccine (I live in a strong Leftist state) to protect these people, who take no responsibility for their health and expect others to protect them. And the sad irony is the vaccine may not even be effective for this group!

How obesity could create problems for a COVID vaccine

Researchers fear that vaccines might not be as effective in people who are obese, a population already highly vulnerable to COVID-19.

www.nature.com

On a focus protection strategy, this is one main group that needs to be locked down & shielded. It doesn't do any good with them out in the general public suspectable to getting infected and having a very high risk of complications. A lot of these ICU hospitalizations that are occurring and has gripped the nation in fear are obese people (as well as the elderly with pre-existing conditions who are on multiple medical drugs and have fragile immune systems).


Yes...I've read the Freeman story several times and I have a perspective on it. His symptoms are identical to influenza. Remember the big flu outbreak with the Red Sox back in April, 2017? Several players and coaches came down with the flu missing several games. For example, Hanley Ramirez was very sick with a fever of 104 degrees (the same temp Freeman reported). Like Freeman, no one was hospitalized and they recovered with no complications moving on. No quarantines...no mass testing...no shutting down the season.

Furthermore, when my son & I had a severe case of seasonal flu back in the first week of February (remember we debated some issues on that), my symptoms were near identical to Freeman's. His fever at one point was 104.5 - mine was around 103. However, Freeman said he only lost one (1) pound - I lost 12 pounds! Neither one of us required hospitalization and have recovered with no complications. He's 31 and I'm on the short side of 60.

IMO, this was a classic example of the MSM overhyping & blowing out of proportion a "Covid" case with a high-profile professional athlete for the "shock & awe" effect (it seems to have had this effect on you). Arguably, I was more sick than he was but having severe flu symptoms these days can't stand a chance against the media's induced-Covid hype with athletes.

Couldn't agree more about the obesity epidemic.

 

[hrotha]

Obviously there are people who overindulge themselves and who could eat way healthier at no extra cost but having the time, energy and money to exercise and eat properly is a luxury and a privilege not everybody has.

 

[roundabout]

'We now a lot more about coronavirus now'

Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show

Infection levels in England are about four times higher than the government's worst-case winter plan.

www.bbc.com

 

[movingtarget]

US sets world record for coronavirus cases in 24 hours

Daily caseload of 100,233 surpasses tally set in India last month as study links Trump rallies to 30,000 cases and 700 deaths

www.theguardian.com

 

[Unchained]

Merckx writes wow the U.S. Gets near 100,000 cases in a population of @325 .million..Japan w a population of @125 million gets a 1000+..
I react wow to both..President Trump commenting that an attendee at one of his rallies was acting " politically correct " by wearing a mask during a mass stadium event. The warnings have been listened to in my opinion pretty much world wide,but establishing and maintaining a cooperative public policy,public health opinion looks like it's not really sustainable anywhere.
As an American,in the current climate of absolute chaos in almost every aspect of American life this is hard to say, but one solution a part of the solution,should have been,should be to establish a ministry of medical information.
Not sure how wide an input would be established..100-1000 scientists do doctors,subject matter experts..but we need to consolidate the messaging. You can't really expect results when part of a small group of government officials are warning of grave future forecasts and within that same relatively small group you have views 180 degrees out of phase, state sponsored super spreader events..sure it's not working,it can't..
One thing that is significantly different in the US than any where else is the litigious elements of American culture. A few of the initial actions taken by the American government as a pandemic response were not medical,scientific,but instead legal. Many leaders fought hard and fast for liability protection for companies and institutions, it has not happened yet. We have seen disgusting,egregious examples were food prep workers got sick and died because the company conspiring w the government decided that the chicken wings and nuggets being produced by the workers were of greater value than their lives. There will be more wrongful death lawsuits for years to come,as those injured or families of the dead try and demonstrate that best practices were not followed or just plain contempt for human life is \was practiced. Operators of aircraft,cruise ships,restaurants,bars and theme parks to name a few have been at odds with science from the start of the pandemic. ..saying out loud..a pizza or hazy IPA is more important than human life,worth the risk..that actually rings true for huge groups of Americans. The idea that a person or persons may die because you want soft serve ice cream or a donut is in the minds of many Americans as an acceptable trade,a necessary evil as part of a full life..
Here's a good play on the concept just a few minutes from me.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qJEcjW1PowM

 

[jmdirt]

Obviously there are people who overindulge themselves and who could eat way healthier at no extra cost but having the time, energy and money to exercise and eat properly is a luxury and a privilege not everybody has.

Yes and no...I'll try to come back to this later...

 

[Jagartrott]

Obviously there are people who overindulge themselves and who could eat way healthier at no extra cost but having the time, energy and money to exercise and eat properly is a luxury and a privilege not everybody has.

A lot of healthy food is not difficult to prepare (salad, raw vegetables require no skills), and is quite cheap. Regarding excercise, just using the bike to go places already makes a huge difference. Of course: (a) healthy food needs to be readily available; (b) consumers need to be nudged more towards such food; (c) cycling infrastructure needs to be in place. Regarding the latter, I was quite appaled with at least 3 of the 4 previous places I visited (for work) in the US the last 4 years. Richmond, New Orleans, Washington - San Francisco gets an "OK" but definitely not more than that. Overall, I have the impression you are very much risking your life cycling through these cities.

 

[BlueRoads]

A lot of healthy food is not difficult to prepare (salad, raw vegetables require no skills), and is quite cheap. Regarding excercise, just using the bike to go places already makes a huge difference. Of course: (a) healthy food needs to be readily available; (b) consumers need to be nudged more towards such food; (c) cycling infrastructure needs to be in place. Regarding the latter, I was quite appaled with at least 3 of the 4 previous places I visited (for work) in the US the last 4 years. Richmond, New Orleans, Washington - San Francisco gets an "OK" but definitely not more than that. Overall, I have the impression you are very much risking your life cycling through these cities.

I think a lot of people are not educated well in that regard, but often it's a psychological question, too. People try to deal with problems and stress and boredom in their lives by eating. Sometimes it's annoying and everyone has to take some responsibility for their lives, but to say they all just don't have the willpower is ignorant, arrogant and heartless, in my opinion.

That being said I have a teenage guest here at the moment and he's been taught to eat like a professional cyclist (he's not, just a 13 year old kid), and I feel torn between "what the f*" and guilt, because I don't eat that healthy and I am not teaching my son that way. Whether I am living healthy depends really on who I am comparing myself to.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

A study by CNN found that in 14/17 communities where Trump held a rally, with his supporters typically maskless and bunched together, case rates rose dramatically a few weeks later. Some of that could be that rates were rising in those places, anyway, but the amount of rise in many communities was far higher than for the state as a whole.

Yes, I’m sure this explains new case spikes in dozens of Countries as well.

 

[Unchained]

I remember early on in my bike racing life when lots of us would show up at a race,usually an office park criterium. Four corners,flat,zero obstacles,no elevation,smooth clean surface and often times \distances that didn't really require a full water bottle.
during those semi stupid velodrome experiences, one of us would get a result,seldom from anything other than final turn placement,crash,or more inferior sprint by another low skilled competitor like the rest of us.
The races were always short and sweet..but the drinking and beer bragging would always be at a 100000:1 ratio with " did you see when I went off the front " also popular " nobody wanted to work together " or the classic " when I chased down the break "
I see that the sleeping giant has awoke from his slumber..welcome back!! Like you I am nervous about Tuesday.
The list of reasons both rational and irrational is long.
I will start with a rational, lense pretty close up reason..holding stadium events in the US is idiotic.period.full stop.
Saying that the country or government official has steered us around any pandemic corner..completely false..stupid to say,but 10 times stupider to listen to or believe.
Nobody says that there is a vaccine,expect for idiot exceptions, you can Google search if you want to observe them saying it on camera.
But the most important thing about pandemic language at this point is personal..so if another slob like myself says that stadium events are swell or uber dangerous..ok judge in within our shores..
The idea that American bodies are stacking up..red state blue states..is an issue.The idea that any American health official can attempt to comfort a grieving family or instill confidence by saying..the U.S. is doing waaaay better than -------Europe,Asia,anyone else is dumb..first because it's not true but far more important what difference does it make..?
The U.S.is sinking itself..yes we have people who think,believe we have turned a corner,but anybody in the US who is paying attention,thinking,even a little knows that if you turn the corner a couple more times you are back where you started.
The spikes in Europe and the United States are happening for exactly the same reasons,like in racing taking pressure off the brakes too early or too late. And accelerating too fast too soon..or too much..
I hope that it's not a surprise that only a very few at the elite level of mutual back patting are complimenting each other..we have @130 million workers in the US..@23 million are on some form of government assistance.
We don't have standardized,available testing.
We still don't have PPE.
we don't know who is infected.
We don't wear masks,we are not social distancing and we are not washing our hands.
how the US is doing compared to Europe does not have to be discussed until we get a result..he says he doesn't drink,but he also said he didn't have condomless sex with playmates and porn stars..
I certainly can't explain why anybody would mention France,Germany or Spain when asked why so many Americans are getting infected,getting hospitalized and dying..
Gotta be booze or blow or some top secret government pill that removes you from reality.
1:1600 it's not a good number..
Merckx or someone posted about Japanese spike..the population @125 million..Americans should dream about having @1000 infections..
I think Arizona alone beat that yesterday..check the Orlando sentinel, Arizona republic..both states have bad numbers..got a few governors air lifting people to available beds..8 months in!!!
Your turn..I hope you were carbo loading in your downtime

 

[djpbaltimore]

The fact that this clown is the key scientific advisor helps explain why excess mortality is around 330k now. We would be better off if Dr. Phil was in charge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1322707594247483393

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/SWAtlasHoover/status/1322707594247483393

 

[Keram]

First day of two of mass testing in Slovakia by antigen tests. I remind you Slovakia has 5,4 milion citizens and children to 10 years have not to go and people older 65 if they can quarantine themselves 10 days.

2 581 113 tests
25 850 positives.

Personally I expected 2-3x higher rates. Nobody discussed false positive rates. I think this antigen test find quite small amount of real positives. When we have about 2000-3000 dayly from 10 000 to 15000 PCR tests logically this number is big underestimate. We will find real results of this experiment up to two three weeks.

 

[yaco]

First day of two of mass testing in Slovakia by antigen tests. I remind you Slovakia has 5,4 milion citizens and children to 10 years have not to go and people older 65 if they can quarantine themselves 10 days.

2 581 113 tests
25 850 positives.

Personally I expected 2-3x higher rates. Nobody discussed false positive rates. I think this antigen test find quite small amount of real positives. When we have about 2000-3000 dayly from 10 000 to 15000 PCR tests logically this number is big underestimate. We will find real results of this experiment up to two three weeks.

Can say that around 6 weeks ago, Hong Kong had a voluntary community testing programme for their population of just over 7 million - They tested 1.8 million to find 38 positives - Will add that there is high population density in Hong Kong so often one member of the household would be tested which would bring the total to around 4 million - Think you don't need to go much over 3 million tested because with 25,000 positives you can then link the cases together - I am more surprised that countries or at least not states/provinces have not done similar.

 

[Jagartrott]

Yes, I’m sure this explains new case spikes in dozens of Countries as well.

It's a comparison between counties where the rallies took place, and counties where they didn't. That is the right way to look at it. It's also completely logical that gatherings would create additional infections.

 

[movingtarget]

Tiny variants in genes may dictate severity of coronavirus

Scientists are tracking small differences in DNA to explain why the disease has different effects

www.theguardian.com

 

[Chris Gadsden]

It's a comparison between counties where the rallies took place, and counties where they didn't. That is the right way to look at it. It's also completely logical that gatherings would create additional infections.

The virus is indeed tricky.

https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/...19-infection-surges-new-national-study-finds/


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/black-lives-matter-protests-didnt-contribute-to-covid19-surge

 

[Unchained]

Trump claims doctors inflate Covid-19 death figures to get paid more money

The President claimed doctors get paid $2,000 more if they put coronavirus down as the cause of death. There's no evidence this is true

www.mirror.co.uk

doesn't matter who or where it's reported from a lie is a lie.
counties and countries are different.
what color the dead American is makes no difference
what politics they practice or don't..their religion or how they have sex,w who..all not important.
finding out who has the virus,treating them and protecting people who don't have the virus is important..
stadium events regardless of location or flavor of the attendees..stupid as of today.
giving people $1200 dollars for 8 months for rent,food,expenses is dumb if you have more money to give..scaring people,threatening the health care they have threatening to cancel people's health care during a pandemic should be punishable by the death penalty.
And while they are at it..if you killed a rare tiger in a closed game preserve you should also be subject to the death penalty..
dancing to the Village People 's YMCA..jury still out and laughing their butts off!! Nothing says fighting a virus like grooving to a Gay anthem..wrong virus,but give credit for trying

this is completely without sarcasm, This is the official American leadership position on fighting the Covid-19 pandemic,maskless, insistence that the virus is almost over and encouraging people to meet in mass without social distancing..

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7axuF7eSmus

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Lies are lies. No doubt about that. I feel good knowing how well the virus can differentiate between stadium crowds and crowds rioting.

Condemnation for one and not the other. Lies are lies. Same as it ever was.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Masking and viral prevalence matter. The expected spikes in DC and NYC never occurred after their outdoor gatherings. Wisconsin is a hotzone. There is zero reason to have unmasked gatherings there. They don't even want people to have Thanksgiving get togethers, so I can't visit my family. What i hate above all else is following rules when other people f - it up for the rest of us.

 

[hrotha]

The virus is indeed tricky.

https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/...19-infection-surges-new-national-study-finds/


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/black-lives-matter-protests-didnt-contribute-to-covid19-surge

It has been consistently shown that, generally, demonstrations outdoors do not contribute to significant spikes. But the BLM protesters largely wore masks, and they didn't typically hang out in closed spaces together before or after the rally. Were the people who attended those Trump rallies similarly careful? Given their general attitude towards masks, I doubt it.

There's no double standard here like you're implying.

 

[yaco]

Think you'll find the COVID figures quoted for the Trump rallies are strictly based on statistical modelling as opposed to HARD contact tracing data - There is every chance the Trump rallies could have spread the virus BUT we don't yet have conclusive data.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

It has been consistently shown that, generally, demonstrations outdoors do not contribute to significant spikes. But the BLM protesters largely wore masks, and they didn't typically hang out in closed spaces together before or after the rally. Were the people who attended those Trump rallies similarly careful? Given their general attitude towards masks, I doubt it.

There's no double standard here like you're implying.

I’m not implying a double standard. The double standard is well beyond obvious. Bias is a problem... and we all suffer from it. From my perspective it’s as plain as day. From yours, not so much.

I could post pictures of the rally’s and of the protests. The mask v un-masked ratio is similar but in the end you’ll settle on the magic virus bypassing the righteous (in your view one group is and one is not) and voila! the down-with-the-cause virus knows where to attack.

If you wish to post the peer-reviewed studies showing infection rates differing greatly between protestors and rally goers I’d love to review them.

 

[Merckx index]

I could post pictures of the rally’s and of the protests. The mask v un-masked ratio is similar but in the end you’ll settle on the magic virus bypassing the righteous (in your view one group is and one is not) and voila! the down-with-the-cause virus knows where to attack.

Until very recently, all the pictures I've seen of Trump rallies show unmasked supporters sitting close together, and frequently in indoor venues. While I'm not arguing the protests weren't risky--they clearly were--they were outside, people generally wore masks, they were further apart, and they were moving, which helps diffuse the virus.

When asked about masks, Mark Meadows made the false argument that mandates violate freedom. Anyone holding a rally can mandate masks without violating anyone's freedom, because anyone who doesn't want to wear a mask doesn't have to attend the rally. Moreover, we all know that if Trump, at the very beginning of any of these rallies, had made a personal plea for supporters to put on the masks that were handed to them when they entered, most would have complied. No mandate would have even been necessary.

Finally, the President is supposed to be setting an example for the rest of the country. The protesters were never elected to anything. The notion that what is allowed at a political rally is justified by what ordinary citizens do is ridiculous. It shouldn't even be compared to what private businesses are allowed to do, and even there, the rallies fall short. For example, the MLB season recently concluded. No fans were allowed at regular season games. In the late stages of the playoffs, including the World Series, fans were permitted, but at greatly reduced numbers. Masks were mandated, and social distancing was required. Fans had to sit at least six feet apart. Why wouldn't any political rally be held to at least the same standard? Indeed, in many parts of the country, even MLB's precautions would not have been allowed, they would have been violating local ordinances.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Until very recently, all the pictures I've seen of Trump rallies show unmasked supporters sitting close together, and frequently in indoor venues. While I'm not arguing the protests weren't risky--they clearly were--they were outside, people generally wore masks, they were further apart, and they were moving, which helps diffuse the virus.

When asked about masks, Mark Meadows made the false argument that mandates violate freedom. Anyone holding a rally can mandate masks without violating anyone's freedom, because anyone who doesn't want to wear a mask doesn't have to attend the rally. Moreover, we all know that if Trump, at the very beginning of any of these rallies, had made a personal plea for supporters to put on the masks that were handed to them when they entered, most would have complied. No mandate would have even been necessary.

Finally, the President is supposed to be setting an example for the rest of the country. The protesters were never elected to anything. The notion that what the President can do is justified by what ordinary citizens do is ridiculous. He shouldn't even be compared to what private businesses are allowed to do, and even there, he falls short. For example, the MLB season recently concluded. No fans were allowed at regular season games. In the late stages of the playoffs, including the World Series, fans were permitted, but at very reduced numbers. Masks were mandated, and social distancing was required. Why wouldn't any political rally be held to at least the same standard?

Rally goers rightly assumed since Antifa and BLM protesters were safe then so should they be.

If pro ball sports in he US didn’t take their lead from the covid-safe riots then that’s their fault.

That said we both know neither was safe but one side argues differently. My question is why?

Yes, it’s rhetorical.