Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

The United Kingdom said recently that it has two new “life-saving” COVID-19 treatments that dramatically cut the death risk.

What’s going on?
The UK said it has two new treatments — tocilizumab and sarilumab — that reduced the risk of dying from COVID-19 by 24% in those who take the medicine.

• The drugs often look to treat rheumatoid arthritis.

Probably the UK’s hcq moment.

https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2...6VL_fj-1uyASMs-uZTBXH0yzGsYcMR3B77O4x2rU7sVKo

I do not really understand the reference to HCQ. In a lot of cases sick patients are not being killed by the virus, but rather the immune response to the virus. This was probably one reason why the convalescent serum also did not show much efficacy. It may sound counterintuitive, but for really sick people, you have to weaken their immune system to save them. That is the mechanistic basis for how dexamethasone is working. (Which was discovered by the UK in their big clinical trials). In RA, you use cytokine blockers because those cytokines are driving the immune system to destroy joint tissue. There is a reason why the ads for RA drugs warn you not to take it with an active infection, because they make you slightly immune-compromised by design.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2030340

The cumulative percentage of patients who had received mechanical ventilation or who had died by day 28 was 12.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.5 to 16.9) in the tocilizumab group and 19.3% (95% CI, 13.3 to 27.4) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for mechanical ventilation or death, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.97; P=0.04 by the log-rank test).

Back in late March!

Most of the ongoing trials (See below) don't involve chloroquine. The one that got the most buzz out of Italy was tocilizumab. Anecdotal, but some of the reported successes were with people intubated.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19

So the CCP has had nearly 14 months to clean up the scene... and investigators might not actully get to the scene.

Sounds about right.

Wuhan is probably not 'the scene' FWIW. Plus, they already had people in Wuhan last January. Seems the only news they found then ended up being actively counter-productive (i.e. that there was no asymptomatic transmission). WHO sending in a delegation to 'investigate' is mostly theatre IMO. This is not an episode of Matlock.

 

[djpbaltimore]

My partner went to Fairfax county in VA to get the Pfizer vaccine yesterday. No adverse reactions to report after the first dose. Still plenty of things to iron out about vaccine delivery. The two poles of the problem as seen in one tweet. Neither are working optimally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1348626656831950855

View: https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1348626656831950855

 

[Koronin]

I think we had discussed the idea of using some of the ballparks (or at least their parking lots) as mass vaccination sites. It appears California has been thinking it's a good idea as well. It sounds like they are going to try it. Also read earlier that San Antonio, TX is going to try that as well.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-governor-gives-covid-deaths-182400711.html

 

[movingtarget]

'Reckless' Christmas easing of rules blamed for Ireland Covid surge

Country has world’s highest rate of infection with critics blaming socialising over festive period

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

'Inheriting a mess': grim outlook for Biden goal of 100m Covid vaccinations in 100 days

With more than 22 million Americans currently Covid-19 positive, infrastructure needed to disseminate vaccine is far from complete

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

Quarter of Covid hospital admissions in England aged under 55

NHS boss Sir Simon Stevens reveals figure as he tells MPs the virus is spreading out of control

www.theguardian.com

 

[Unchained]

It's looking like it will go down to the wire for Trump, but if his luck holds..400,000 dead from Covid on his watch..
There's a radio show titled The Daily..today they featured an update mostly about the vaccine rollout..looks to be good news about vaccine "Super Centers" ..stadiums,other large venues..

 

[Koronin]

Sounds like Orange County California has an agreement with Disneyland to set up a mass vaccination site there.

Disneyland to host Orange County's first massive vaccination site

Disneyland, which remains closed to visitors, is set to host the first of five massive vaccination sites in Orange County.

abc7.com

 

[search]

'Reckless' Christmas easing of rules blamed for Ireland Covid surge

Country has world’s highest rate of infection with critics blaming socialising over festive period

www.theguardian.com

the most interesting (and fearsome) part is in here though, I would say:

"Socialising in households over Christmas, the opening of restaurants and gastro-pubs and the appearance of the more transmissable variant of the virus first identified in England all contributed to the surge. The new variant accounted for 45% of the most recent virus samples versus 25% of those tested in the week to 3 January and 9% tested two weeks earlier."

so the mutant is taking over basically within days, and from what I have read so far, I doubt there's a way to fight it with any kind of mild lockdown measures - christmas or not.

 

[Merckx index]

The study of more than 1,700 patients treated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the original epicenter of the pandemic, shows 76% suffered at least one symptom months after they were discharged from hospital.

Three-quarters of Wuhan patients hospitalized for Covid-19 still had symptoms 6 months later, Chinese study finds | CNN

Most patients who had been hospitalized with Covid-19 still suffered a variety of symptoms -- including fatigue and sleep difficulties -- six months after infection, a Chinese study has found.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Eyeballs Out]

The new variant is always stated to be more transmissable but I wonder what exactly it is being compared against and how can you compare like with like ?

For argument's sake let's keep it simple and say there have only been two variants - Old and New where Old is what we were seeing up until this winter. I don't think there is much doubt that the Old variant was much more transmissable last spring than it was during the summer. It also seems likely that, had the pandemic started 6 months earlier, Old variant would have been much more transmissable last winter than what we saw at the peak of the first wave in Europe and the US in the spring. So the obvious question is how do they know that it wouldn't have been exactly the same as what we are seeing now ? We haven't had a global covid-19 pandemic in Nov, Dec or Jan (or Feb) before.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

It's looking like it will go down to the wire for Trump, but if his luck holds..400,000 dead from Covid on his watch..
There's a radio show titled The Daily..today they featured an update mostly about the vaccine rollout..looks to be good news about vaccine "Super Centers" ..stadiums,other large venues..

It really is a shame. If Hillary had won there never would have been C19. Just look what bad orange man did.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The new variant is always stated to be more transmissable but I wonder what exactly it is being compared against and how can you compare like with like ?

The increasing percentage of the variant in places like Ireland as search mentioned above is a good piece of evidence that it is more 'fit' than the old virus. But that doesn't always mean transmissibility is better. It could have an evasion trait that gets selected for. Or it can be entirely due to making it into a population that is less cautious. The increased colonization in the upper airways suggests that it would be more transmissible. (It also indicates why it is not more deadly if the lung colonization is not increased).

But the best comparison is secondary attack rate. Take people who are infected with the variant or with the old strain and see how often close contacts are infected within a similar time span. This also has behavioral variables, but if you do enough people, the effects should balance out. And the numbers I saw, the attack rate for the old was about 10%, while it was 15% for the variant. So that is about a 50% increase with a range of uncertainty of +/- 20%.

 

[Unchained]

It really is a shame. If Hillary had won there never would have been C19. Just look what bad orange man did.

I wrote the script for you!! Hillary never won anything,she was never the President,so any implications of her looming power is loony.
but back in reality,everything in the Covid response is on Trump's watch,his responsibility.
positions unfilled or w staff resigning are but yet more dangerous acts effecting Americans. Each unfilled job has a horrible effect on the Corona virus response..education,security,transportation, and even in the early days of the pandemic. US Navy, had an outbreak on aircraft carrier and support ships, with one Capt going so far as to sacrifice his career as his crew was infected.and what did the administration do? They didn't fill the job of Secretary of the Navy.. Everywhere you look temp workers, jobs unfilled and acting heads of agencies, but n nobody permanent..truly disgraceful
Many states saying that with the 11th hour passage of a second Corona virus aid package,the states have desperately needed funds

 

[Eyeballs Out]

The increasing percentage of the variant in places like Ireland as search mentioned above is a good piece of evidence that it is more 'fit' than the old virus. But that doesn't always mean transmissibility is better. It could have an evasion trait that gets selected for. Or it can be entirely due to making it into a population that is less cautious. The increased colonization in the upper airways suggests that it would be more transmissible. (It also indicates why it is not more deadly if the lung colonization is not increased).

But the best comparison is secondary attack rate. Take people who are infected with the variant or with the old strain and see how often close contacts are infected within a similar time span. This also has behavioral variables, but if you do enough people, the effects should balance out. And the numbers I saw, the attack rate for the old was about 10%, while it was 15% for the variant. So that is about a 50% increase with a range of uncertainty of +/- 20%.

Are those "attack rate" percentages (10% vs 15%) measured and derived at the same point in time i.e. recent data isolating the two variants ? I assume the attack rate is going to vary a lot over the year all other things being equal. As you say, given the new one is becoming more prevalent and the old one is becoming less prevalent then sure you'd expect the new one to currently have the higher attack rate. That could be because it has current attack rate higher than the old one had at its highest but could also be because it's the same and the old one has become weaker (all other things being equal)

 

[djpbaltimore]

Are those "attack rate" percentages (10% vs 15%) measured and derived at the same point in time i.e. recent data isolating the two variants ? I assume the attack rate is going to vary a lot over the year all other things being equal. As you say, given the new one is becoming more prevalent and the old one is becoming less prevalent then sure you'd expect the new one to currently have the higher attack rate. That could be because it has current attack rate higher than the old one had at its highest but could also be because it's the same and the old one has become weaker (all other things being equal)

Yes, they should be contemporary infections to control for seasonal effects. R does vary for a virus based on a number of factors that include seasonal effects. I just saw the numbers from the UK bulletin about the variant. I have not seen how exactly the methodology was done because it has not been released in publication form AFAIK.

Here is better news. This underscores what the worst trait of COVID is. Its novelty. Once immune systems have seen bits of it, the virus itself is actually not that threatening.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1349012514529566725

View: https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1349012514529566725

 

[Oldermanish]

It really is a shame. If Hillary had won there never would have been C19. Just look what bad orange man did.

I think your koolaid ration just went past 11.....
Obama, Hillary, who is next as the scapegoat in your head?

 

[Cookster15]

Quarter of Covid hospital admissions in England aged under 55

NHS boss Sir Simon Stevens reveals figure as he tells MPs the virus is spreading out of control

www.theguardian.com

If you know the virus is out of control why would you put yourself in a risky situation? How many of those getting infected in the UK can work from home? What constraints are there in the UK for accessing aged care facilities? I read these horror stories from the UK and America and I wonder just how hard the people are trying to do the right thing to minimize their risks of exposure?

 

[yaco]

If you know the virus is out of control why would you put yourself in a risky situation? How many of those getting infected in the UK can work from home? What constraints are there in the UK for accessing aged care facilities? I read these horror stories from the UK and America and I wonder just how hard the people are trying to do the right thing to minimize their risks of exposure?

This is a naive post and yet another case of you blaming the individual - England has been in various stages of lockdown since November - Normally when you have a lockdown it takes about 2 weeks to reach a peak infection rate and then the numbers gradually trend down - But in England's case the numbers are increasing exponentially at a ridiculous rate which is defying science - I guess this is probably related to the new variant of the virus- Even the scientific experts are shocked by the figures - Certain that Baltimore will provide more information/thoughts.

 

[Cookster15]

I think your koolaid ration just went past 11.....
Obama, Hillary, who is next as the scapegoat in your head?

Yours might be the fashionable view but it isn't helpful. Rather ironic you talk about scapegoats. I know its fashionable but the point is Orangeman is blamed for everything and yet it isn't all his fault. Can you at least concede the obvious? If Obama or Hillary had been POTUS the virus would still have arrived from China before anyone in America was aware and it became too late. In the UK they are currently in the middle of a crisis and Orangeman had nothing to do with it.

 

[Cookster15]

This is a naive post and yet another case of you blaming the individual - England has been in various stages of lockdown since November - Normally when you have a lockdown it takes about 2 weeks to reach a peak infection rate and then the numbers gradually trend down - But in England's case the numbers are increasing exponentially at a ridiculous rate which is defying science - I guess this is probably related to the new variant of the virus- Even the scientific experts are shocked by the figures - Certain that Baltimore will provide more information/thoughts.

I am not naïve and I am not blaming the individual but perhaps culture is a factor. I am aware of how infectious the UK strain is, it is all over our media. You have defended China here. They have stopped the spread according to the official numbers. So why can't the UK? Are you saying if the UK strain arrives in Beijing or Hong Kong that they will be in massive strife too?

 

[yaco]

I think your koolaid ration just went past 11.....
Obama, Hillary, who is next as the scapegoat in your head?

Yes, Trump's leadership in this case has been poor and some of the damage could have been averted, BUT even in some countries which took COVID seriously with well developed plans have suffered greatly.

 

[yaco]

I am not naïve and I am not blaming the individual. I am aware of how infectious the UK strain is, it is all over our media. You have defended China here. They have stopped the spread. So why can't the UK? Are you saying if the UK strain arrives in Beijing or Hong Kong that they will be in massive strife too?

I suggest you re-read the wording of your posts ! I'll add if you acknowledge how infectious the new variant could possibly be then parts of your previous post are unwarranted - Maybe look at Ireland which locked down in October and November, then gradually reopened in December when they had a European low of five cases per 1000, to now having the highest rate of infections per capita in Europe with 42% of cases being the new variant which suggests it is a difficult virus to contain - America is a bit different in that there is no nationwide co-ordinated approach to alleviate their issues - You continually bring up China which has no relationship to the current discussion - And by the way, China is still battling localised outbreaks of COVID.

 

[Cookster15]

I suggest you re-read the wording of your posts ! I'll add if you acknowledge how infectious the new variant could possibly be then parts of your previous post are unwarranted - Maybe look at Ireland which locked down in October and November, then gradually reopened in December when they had a European low of five cases per 1000, to now having the highest rate of infections per capita in Europe with 42% of cases being the new variant which suggests it is a difficult virus to contain - America is a bit different in that there is no nationwide co-ordinated approach to alleviate their issues - You continually bring up China which has no relationship to the current discussion - And by the way, China is still battling localised outbreaks of COVID.

I am aware of what I wrote. You misinterpret due to your own subjective bias.

I use China as a benchmark but glad you admit China is still battling localized outbreaks. I am also aware of restrictions even in remote Ürümqi in Xinxiang China which are impacting on business there. The UK strain arrived in Queensland Australia after a cleaner at a quarantine hotel became was infected. But after a short lockdown Brisbane is coming back from this UK strain and nothing like what happened in Melbourne.

I am not blaming individuals. But culture does play part. I think culture, not individuals explains much of America's failure and much of China's success to date (at least according to the official numbers).

 

[Jagartrott]

These are two consecutive entries on The Guardian's live blog, but - is it the same vaccine exactly? Anyway, that seems a downer for the countries dependent on this, and also for China itself.



A vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac showed “general efficacy” of 50.4% in a late-stage trial in Brazil, researchers have said; barely enough for regulatory approval and far short of earlier indications. The latest results are a major disappointment for Brazil, as the Chinese vaccine is one of two that the federal government has lined up to begin immunisation during the second wave of the world’s second-deadliest outbreak. The letdown after a more promising partial data disclosure last week may also contribute to criticism that vaccines developed by Chinese manufacturers are not subject to the same public scrutiny as US and European alternatives.
.
.
.

Indonesia will start a mass vaccination campaign on Wednesday, with the president, Joko Widodo, to receive the first shot. The ambitious vaccination drive is being launched amid record deaths in one of Asia’s most stubborn epidemics. The campaign aims to inoculate 181.5 million people, the first of whom will receive the CoronaVac vaccine from China’s Sinovac Biotech, which Indonesia authorised for emergency use on Monday, with an efficacy rate of 65.3%. The president, who is known as Jokowi, will be given a CoronaVac shot on Wednesday morning, his office said, in a sign of the priority placed on immunisation in a country that has done far less than its south-east Asian neighbours to track and contain the virus. The minster of health, Budi Gunadi Sadikin, told parliament on Tuesday that nearly 1.5 million medical workers would be inoculated by February, followed by public servants and the general population within 15 months.


Edit: I found this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ing-global-with-four-different-efficacy-rates
Openness is key. Maybe a tad difficult for this particular country?