Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

100% effective at preventing serious cases is good news at least. There is a lot of speculation at how they arrived at 50.4% and their definition of ' very mild cases'. The devil is in the details. The early trials looked pretty good for antibody development (below). I wouldn't expect a great T cell response from an inactivated vaccine though, so probably not the best vaccine out there IMO.

Safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in healthy adults aged 18–59 years: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 clinical trial

Taking safety, immunogenicity, and production capacity into account, the 3 μg dose of CoronaVac is the suggested dose for efficacy assessment in future phase 3 trials.

www.thelancet.com

England has been in various stages of lockdown since November - Normally when you have a lockdown it takes about 2 weeks to reach a peak infection rate and then the numbers gradually trend down - But in England's case the numbers are increasing exponentially at a ridiculous rate which is defying science - I guess this is probably related to the new variant of the virus- Even the scientific experts are shocked by the figures - Certain that Baltimore will provide more information/thoughts.

I think you are right about the variant. So many countries had settled around an R of ~1 for the old strain. Bumping up the transmission means strategies that worked before will not anymore. That is clearly a factor in the UK and Ireland. Add the holiday laxity and you end up with a big problem. I think Ireland has the worst current outbreak in the world now.

As to the point raised by Cookster15 about how people can put themselves in risky situations where the virus is thriving... If you are in a country without a big outbreak, you might not realize how normal everyday life is in places like the US that are experiencing large outbreaks. This isn't Ecuador, where bodies were being left in the street. People here are just well insulated from the effects of COVID if they want to be. Sure, there are different rules and not everything is open any more. But there are no shortages or strikes. Toilet paper is plentiful! The risk is just too abstract. We are proving the old adage that the death of a person is a tragedy, while the death of thousands is a statistic. Combined with the fact that 'normalcy' has a gravity that pulls people in and you get a situation where life carries on, which obviously helps the outbreak keep going too. You can't have one without the other. At least not for long!

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I think your koolaid ration just went past 11.....
Obama, Hillary, who is next as the scapegoat in your head?

No scapegoats. Everything is the fault of bad orange man.

But I’m the one on the koolaid.

 

[Cookster15]

As to the point raised by Cookster15 about how people can put themselves in risky situations where the virus is thriving... If you are in a country without a big outbreak, you might not realize how normal everyday life is in places like the US that are experiencing large outbreaks.

To be clear we don't take the virus lightly in Australia - to the contrary! Yaco has even stated that we are overly concerned and won't conduct major sporting events like the Australian Open Tennis, Australian Grand Prix or even the TDU. 909 people have died here that may be very small compared to elsewhere but people are very frightened and our low case and death counts are exactly because we are not complacent.

My point is it is possible to adapt your lifestyle to minimize risks. China is proof. The UK and America can do WFH. What success does wearing a mask have in preventing transmission whilst using public transport? In China the people are huge users of public transport, again this shows why it can be done and makes me wonder why the UK is struggling so much even of this new strain is 70% more contagious?

 

[Oldermanish]

Yours might be the fashionable view but it isn't helpful. Rather ironic you talk about scapegoats. I know its fashionable but the point is Orangeman is blamed for everything and yet it isn't all his fault. Can you at least concede the obvious? If Obama or Hillary had been POTUS the virus would still have arrived from China before anyone in America was aware and it became too late. In the UK they are currently in the middle of a crisis and Orangeman had nothing to do with it.

I can concede the obvious that he and no other President could have cured Covid single-handedly or with purely Federal response. I'm not blaming him for "everything"; just noting the points of credit he insists belong solely to him like Warpspeed, the Wall, the Economy, North Korea, etc. You're point about the UK is totally on target. Some here won't allow that he may have been an obstacle to success rather than a contributor; instead blaming predecessors, other jurisdictions and fantastical beasts. I'm definitely not fashionable and the information is in everyone's face.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

If you know the virus is out of control why would you put yourself in a risky situation? How many of those getting infected in the UK can work from home? What constraints are there in the UK for accessing aged care facilities? I read these horror stories from the UK and America and I wonder just how hard the people are trying to do the right thing to minimize their risks of exposure?

A big swath aren’t... at least in Cali. About 35% of the cases are in the 19-35 year old range and make up 54% of the cases (about 6.5% of all Latinos have been infected) with the deaths in the Latino demographic making up 47% of all who have died... all while making up 36.3% of the population.

To be fair much of this is can be contributed working conditions - but, at least anecdotally - the Latinos themselves will tell you their younger folks are not adhering to guidelines like they should.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Yes, Trump's leadership in this case has been poor and some of the damage could have been averted, BUT even in some countries which took COVID seriously with well developed plans have suffered greatly.

That, too, is bad orange man’s fault.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Yours might be the fashionable view but it isn't helpful. Rather ironic you talk about scapegoats. I know its fashionable but the point is Orangeman is blamed for everything and yet it isn't all his fault. Can you at least concede the obvious? If Obama or Hillary had been POTUS the virus would still have arrived from China before anyone in America was aware and it became too late. In the UK they are currently in the middle of a crisis and Orangeman had nothing to do with it.

I can answer for the TDS’ers: No concessions. Not now, not ever.

 

[Oldermanish]

A big swath aren’t... at least in Cali. About 35% of the cases are in the 19-35 year old range and make up 54% of the cases (about 6.5% of all Latinos have been infected) with the deaths in the Latino demographic making up 47% of all who have died... all while making up 36.3% of the population.

To be fair much of this is can be contributed working conditions - but, at least anecdotally - the Latinos themselves will tell you their younger folks are not adhering to guidelines like they should.

The CA Latino community has had challenges with unemployment and traditional family behavior combining their risk, too. Our neighbor spent a month in the Central Valley trying to keep her relatives from putting themselves at risk and came home exhausted. They just can't separate in large households and 2 relatives got sick in the next weeks. She was beating herself up for leaving but I admire her effort. That and kids will act like kids. I see large groups of high-school and college age gatherers with their masks around their neck. They're invincible and haven't lost anyone, I guess.

 

[search]

100% effective at preventing serious cases is good news at least. There is a lot of speculation at how they arrived at 50.4% and their definition of ' very mild cases'. The devil is in the details. The early trials looked pretty good for antibody development (below). I wouldn't expect a great T cell response from an inactivated vaccine though, so probably not the best vaccine out there IMO.

in China itself (according to a friend from China) they are only vaccinating people younger than 60 so far, so I guess the main issue could be that it doesn't work well for older people?! That's far from perfect of course, but it may explain those numbers from Brazil, if they started their program with vaccinating old people (as early reports suggest)- It could still be fine for others

 

[jmdirt]

I got an email from the 'big boss' (haven't actually seen him in over a year) stating that we can expect to get vaccinated "sometime in February." I didn't think that it would be that soon, and unless the company negotiated something with the state, I'm not sure if we will actually have anything to put in our arms "sometime in February". We do have an RN and several PAs employed by the company so that would be a nice negotiating chip I suppose.

Also of note was the wording that "we can expect to get vaccinated sometime in February". I wonder if they are going to require it? Strongly encourage it? I'm in, the people I work with on a daily basis are in, and our traveling people are in (as far as I've heard).

My immediate boss just told us that we will start getting vaccinated in early February (more specific than the email of "sometime in Feb." from the COO) and they haven't decided if they can require us to get vaccinated (no doubt talking with the law folks within the company as well as others). She did add, with a smirk on her face, that they can probably do some things to make our lives smoother if we do and rougher if we don't.

 

[movingtarget]

'The horror stories are countless': inside the LA hospital at the center of the Covid crisis

Los Angeles sees a person infected every six seconds. In a predominantly Latino neighborhood, Martin Luther King Jr community hospital faces ‘a sea of illness’

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

Ontario declares emergency as coronavirus surge swamps hospitals

Canada’s most populous province on track to see tenfold increase in daily case count within weeks

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/fears-of-huge-covid-surge-as-tens-of-thousands-flock-to-popular-holiday-spot-210210274.html

 

[jmdirt]

I don't think I understand the strategy of "we aren't able to get the vaccine into people's arms so we should release more vaccine".

 

[Koronin]

My immediate boss just told us that we will start getting vaccinated in early February (more specific than the email of "sometime in Feb." from the COO) and they haven't decided if they can require us to get vaccinated (no doubt talking with the law folks within the company as well as others). She did add, with a smirk on her face, that they can probably do some things to make our lives smoother if we do and rougher if we don't.

That's a better time frame. Any idea if you'll be getting the Moderna or the Pfizer vaccine? (Just curious). I have a friend who has gotten the Moderna. (First shot, she works in social services and some of her clients are in nursing homes. She said after the first shot her arm was sore for about 2 days. She also said a sore arm for about a day is a typical reaction she has to any vaccine. Talking with one of the ladies I know at a local CVS they have been told they will eventually get some of the Moderna vaccine and that our local hospital finally got it's first shipment of the Moderna vaccine. Currently where I live only health care employees can get the vaccine.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I don't think I understand the strategy of "we aren't able to get the vaccine into people's arms so we should release more vaccine".

Exactly.

For Blue States it could be reworded... “we aren’t able to get the vaccine into the correct people’s arms”

Sadly, a shot in an arm is not a win if it’s not the PC arm that gets the shot. That is the USA in 2021.

 

[Unchained]

Chris. In all of life,
better late than never
always holds true,it's always positive.
As the Trump administration has taken sudden interest in vaccine distribution proficiency..who cares why!! But praise God.

And for you,with your deep, unmistakable political lense..
going to the Rio Grande valley..hospitals full, cases exploding..help desperately needed..
He was there for encouraging medical words..
Nope.
instead grandstanding..looked at a structure he claimed to be "unclimbable"..
YouTube will check for the validity of that claim..seeing billions spent and seeing an 11yo girl verify his "facts"..ouch

 

[Unchained]

Walls don't help,don't solve anything Covid..just more false..ooops..alternative facts..3600 dead per day..

 

[jmdirt]

That's a better time frame. Any idea if you'll be getting the Moderna or the Pfizer vaccine? (Just curious). I have a friend who has gotten the Moderna. (First shot, she works in social services and some of her clients are in nursing homes. She said after the first shot her arm was sore for about 2 days. She also said a sore arm for about a day is a typical reaction she has to any vaccine. Talking with one of the ladies I know at a local CVS they have been told they will eventually get some of the Moderna vaccine and that our local hospital finally got it's first shipment of the Moderna vaccine. Currently where I live only health care employees can get the vaccine.

I don't know which one we are going to get. It may depend on how they plan to schedule it.

 

[8472]

These are two consecutive entries on The Guardian's live blog, but - is it the same vaccine exactly? Anyway, that seems a downer for the countries dependent on this, and also for China itself.

A vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac showed “general efficacy” of 50.4% in a late-stage trial in Brazil, researchers have said; barely enough for regulatory approval and far short of earlier indications. The latest results are a major disappointment for Brazil, as the Chinese vaccine is one of two that the federal government has lined up to begin immunisation during the second wave of the world’s second-deadliest outbreak. The letdown after a more promising partial data disclosure last week may also contribute to criticism that vaccines developed by Chinese manufacturers are not subject to the same public scrutiny as US and European alternatives.

Indonesia will start a mass vaccination campaign on Wednesday, with the president, Joko Widodo, to receive the first shot. The ambitious vaccination drive is being launched amid record deaths in one of Asia’s most stubborn epidemics. The campaign aims to inoculate 181.5 million people, the first of whom will receive the CoronaVac vaccine from China’s Sinovac Biotech, which Indonesia authorised for emergency use on Monday, with an efficacy rate of 65.3%. The president, who is known as Jokowi, will be given a CoronaVac shot on Wednesday morning, his office said, in a sign of the priority placed on immunisation in a country that has done far less than its south-east Asian neighbours to track and contain the virus. The minster of health, Budi Gunadi Sadikin, told parliament on Tuesday that nearly 1.5 million medical workers would be inoculated by February, followed by public servants and the general population within 15 months.

Edit: I found this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ing-global-with-four-different-efficacy-rates
Openness is key. Maybe a tad difficult for this particular country?

Without counting the "very mild" cases, the efficacy was 78%, but drops to 50% if they count all symptoms as a case (with/without a PCR confirmation test).

From Sciencemag: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-made-covid-19-vaccine-details-remain-sketchy
"At a press conference today, Brazilian researchers reported that a vaccine made by a Chinese company, Sinovac, was safe and had 78% efficacy in preventing mild cases of COVID-19 in a study of more than 12,000 health care workers. It also completely prevented moderate and severe illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 infections, the team said...the root of the disagreement between Butantan and Sinovac is what constitutes a confirmed case of COVID-19, as definitions can vary. The greater the number and severity of symptoms a trial subject must have to count as a case, the higher a vaccine’s efficacy will appear to be. The Brazil team and the vaccinemaker were at odds about whether a case has to show one recognized COVID-19 symptom or two, in addition to a positive polymerase chain reaction test for the virus. "

The level of spike protein is much lower in inactivated vaccines, so the lower efficacy of Sinovac's inactivated vaccines than protein or mRNA vaccines from Pfizer/Moderna is expected. Seasonal flu vaccine efficacy is 50%, and is still widely used, so if it can completely prevent moderate and severe illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 infections, aka “If you can prevent someone being seen by a doctor by 78% and prevent hospital admissions by 100%", then there's nothing to lose, especially for many countries around the world that will have difficulty in acquiring the better but more expensive/harder to distribute Pfizer/Moderna vaccines.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Exactly.

For Blue States it could be reworded... “we aren’t able to get the vaccine into the correct people’s arms”

Sadly, a shot in an arm is not a win if it’s not the PC arm that gets the shot. That is the USA in 2021.

The numbers don't really show a disparity like that. CA is bottom 5. But they are joined by Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi.

Illinois, DC, CT, and RI are in the top 10 currently.

Sitting midpack grouped together are the populous states of NY, FL, and TX. I think that is the noteworthy part. Different strategies to arrive at the same spot. Sparsely populated or single population center states seem to be doing the best. I think that advantage is mostly a reflection of logistics rather than policy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/

More people died yesterday in the USA than died during the whole pandemic in Japan. That blew my mind. It looks like we are about to hit our post holiday peak at 131K hospitalizations, so the numbers should start to improve.

This is a much larger problem than priority.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1349364788858675200

View: https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1349364788858675200

 

[Unchained]

A big swath aren’t... at least in Cali. About 35% of the cases are in the 19-35 year old range and make up 54% of the cases (about 6.5% of all Latinos have been infected) with the deaths in the Latino demographic making up 47% of all who have died... all while making up 36.3% of the population.

To be fair much of this is can be contributed working conditions - but, at least anecdotally - the Latinos themselves will tell you their younger folks are not adhering to guidelines like they should.

I don't know the numbers you are using here are correct. But I will assume that they are, why would Trump, Azar,Atlas,and others resist spending money and resources for a targeted campaign in Latino communities, with specific Spanish messaging,in both print,media,schools,workplaces and churches. Anybody familiar with Latino culture in general,they go to church in a greater percentage than Caucasian community population.
In California, public transportation,jobs that can't be done remotely, under -no health insurance,and multiple family,multi generation housing, on top of low wages and financial insecurity and fragility all are ,or should be on the list of contributing factors for the disastrous results of Covid among Latinos.
It worth noting of some people that Trump threatened at the beginning of the virus crisis, examples like meat packers that were told that legal action may take place if they walked off the job, or if plants shuttered and caused food shortages.
in one of your other posts, you are using the parameter of red and blue states as a Covid metric, probably best to review the state status of places like Maryland,Ohio and others. The political party of the state Governor doesn't look to important for deaths,hospitalization and they overall strategy if that's your point. So if you portray the virus as picking victims by party,or if health outcomes have a vastly different result based on politics..I think you will have to further research that.
Lots of your posts include Antifa,Black Lives matter, Democrats,Obama,Hillary in some form of causal link to Covid. In a free country, you are allowed to believe in Bigfoot, or that Elvis is alive and running a laundromat in Michigan..everything and anything can be believed,but it cannot make a connection to Covid.
So most people, look at a 30ft tall metal fence and ask themselves " what does this have to do with vaccine distribution, what is the connection to this fence and @20,000 deaths this month? "
The problem is if you can find a connection, not finding a connection is not a problem

 

[jmdirt]

Idaho food packing plants have just moved up the line for vaccination (a very large number of Hispanic workers, jammed into facilities).

 

[Koronin]

The numbers don't really show a disparity like that. CA is bottom 5. But they are joined by Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi.

Illinois, DC, CT, and RI are in the top 10 currently.

Sitting midpack grouped together are the populous states of NY, FL, and TX. I think that is the noteworthy part. Different strategies to arrive at the same spot. Sparsely populated or single population center states seem to be doing the best. I think that advantage is mostly a reflection of logistics rather than policy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/

More people died yesterday in the USA than died during the whole pandemic in Japan. That blew my mind. It looks like we are about to hit our post holiday peak at 131K hospitalizations, so the numbers should start to improve.

This is a much larger problem than priority.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1349364788858675200

View: https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1349364788858675200

Just responding to the part about the J&J vaccine. If it works well and the issue is just not many doses to start with, that's ok. My reasoning is that the more vaccine doses we can get out that work well the better off we are. (Just need to take it as recommended.) Fingers crossed they have some good news for efficiency numbers.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Are there actually any studies about the British mutation being that much more contagious?