Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Ultrairon]

Thank you - very helpful. Myself and family received Pfizer. Do we need boosters indefinitely? I have heard here they are thinking about combining the annual flu vaccine with the Covid booster? This would only upset those who didn't get annual flu shot. Pre Covid I was getting that via my employer so no issue.

I was tempted last night to ask a question here but your statement about the flu shot caused me to go for it.

How many people active in this thread got the Flu shot annually? Honest answer. And if you did not get it did you ever once hear someone say you are endangering someone else's life? I know this is different but for some it is not.

If you ever lived with someone with lung cancer or emphysema you would know that any small cold or infection can cause a person to die. I lost my father to lung cancer when I was 16. For the last 4 years of his life if my sister or I caught a simple cold we had to stay with a relative and could not come home. The danger was real. If we brought the flu to him he would have a high possibility to die. Yet people go every year without one thought or care with the flu shot. Maybe they shrug as they say or could give 2 fcks.

My mother passed away a year ago this upcoming Jan 23rd. Lung Cancer - She was in and out of the ICU 9 times in 2020 alone. Never picked up covid and never had a mask on either. She was in and out of so many medical facilities and around so many people. It was a miracle she never was infected with it. Finally in the end she was in her own words Just tired. My entire family all made sure we were always up to date on flu vax and without any illness before we went to visit her.

Point being we all can learn to live with Covid in our lives. It does not mean we should shut down society for it. The social and mental damage will take years to repair and in some cases it will never be repaired.

 

[Ultrairon]

Re Djok, sure, he's on the plane
But on transmission I am talking about the current omicron case explosion here. We are highly (double*) vaccinated and yet recording massive new case counts. I really doubt many new cases are for the unvaccinated.

*I asked the question on boosters since most Australians are not yet due for them, including myself who only got my 2nd shot on Sep 23.

Are the imigration officers still holding Djokovic? If I was him why not just return? In other words leave. Good thing here is we have a souther border where you can come and go as you please , northern border not so much as "winter is coming"

 

[Cookster15]

I was tempted last night to ask a question here but your statement about the flu shot caused me to go for it.

How many people active in this thread got the Flu shot annually? Honest answer. And if you did not get it did you ever once hear someone say you are endangering someone else's life? I know this is different but for some it is not.

Point being we all can learn to live with Covid in our lives. It does not mean we should shut down society for it. The social and mental damage will take years to repair and in some cases it will never be repaired.

Thanks for sharing your personal experience, sorry to hear.

I agree we eventually need to learn to live with Covid. It is inevitable and anyone who disagrees is lying. It will be interesting to follow the outcome of the current omicron case explosion in my country and elsewhere. Hospital admissions are rising but at a far far lower rate than new cases - and new cases are likely grossly under reported as testing can't keep up with demand.

How many people active in this thread got the Flu shot annually? Yes.
And if you did not get it did you ever once hear someone say you are endangering someone else's life? No.

 

[Cookster15]

Are the imigration officers still holding Djokovic? If I was him why not just return? In other words leave. Good thing here is we have a souther border where you can come and go as you please , northern border not so much as "winter is coming"

You are right, he was held in immigration not already on an aircraft leaving Australia. Latest news this morning a leading Melbourne lawyer says there is a chance Novak Djokovic could be allowed to play the Australian Open while his lawyers attempt to fight his deportation.

 

[Koronin]

Concerning the question about whether or not we get the flu shot. My husband gets the flu shot every year. Currently where he works (once he can go back to work) requires it. I get it most years.

I do think at some point things will go back to more or less the way they were before. From what we are seeing with Omicron I think this is the beginning of that. As we get less deadly variants for whatever reason it will turn into a much more manageable virus.

 

[Cookster15]

Concerning the question about whether or not we get the flu shot. My husband gets the flu shot every year. Currently where he works (once he can go back to work) requires it. I get it most years.

I do think at some point things will go back to more or less the way they were before. From what we are seeing with Omicron I think this is the beginning of that. As we get less deadly variants for whatever reason it will turn into a much more manageable virus.

Thank you. Hopefully we get full admission that omicron is less deadly. It seems most likely but we still have people who say that is only thanks to vaccination. I really wonder how the Spanish flu ever died out when no vaccines existed.

 

[Koronin]

Thank you. Hopefully we get full admission that omicron is less deadly. It seems most likely but we still have people who say that is only thanks to vaccination. I really wonder how the Spanish flu ever died out when no vaccines existed.

I've been wondering that myself. My guess is a combination of continued variants becoming less deadly over time and people surviving previous infections.

Now I'm also sure that we will have more variants. My hope is that they won't be more deadly, esp if they are mutations of the Omicron variant and that they become even less likely to put someone in the hospital. I also think if we can get more medications (I'm referring to pills) that work for mild/moderate cases to keep them from getting worse it would help as well.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Hmm, not sure about that with omicron?

My understanding is population immunity can be achieved via either vaccination or exposure to the virus. Above you claim we should be concerned because Australia has low exposure. Except we have higher vaccination than virtually every nation - including America.

Now 91.7% of the Australian population over 16 are double vaccinated (note: boosters not due yet*).
Vaccination numbers and statistics | Australian Government Department of Health

Question: *I think boosters are required because the efficacy of the original shots wear off? Or is this because you don't achieve full protection until after the booster? So the Australian population who is largely still within the first 6 months of the 2nd shot, immunity level (and transmissibility) should be just as high - or not?

Yesterday, January 6 Australia just recorded the highest daily case count since the pandemic commenced. I suggest this is because people are vaccinated they are out and about and less concerned - you can call that complacency but as I have mentioned, the media is doom and gloom every day here like everywhere. ICUs are well within capacity but we still wait nervously. My point is the massive omicron transmission rate isn't by the unvaccinated. Therefore the rule which has caused the world #1 tennis player to be caught and sent home is ineffective.

I don't understand your question. You should be concerned. Y'all don't have enough population immunity to slow down omicron. But, the data does look increasingly clear that an omicron surge is far preferable to a delta surge. Immunity is due to infection and vaccination or a combo of both. The immune naive are who I am worried about because they will be the ones clogging up hospitals and morgues. 2 doses is not nearly as good as 3 when looking at antibody titers. That is why 2 doses don't really prevent infections. For the antivaxx truthers who don't think vaccines work against omicron.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479166853192761348

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479166853192761348

 

[FrankB]

I was tempted last night to ask a question here but your statement about the flu shot caused me to go for it.

How many people active in this thread got the Flu shot annually? Honest answer. And if you did not get it did you ever once hear someone say you are endangering someone else's life? I know this is different but for some it is not.

If you ever lived with someone with lung cancer or emphysema you would know that any small cold or infection can cause a person to die. I lost my father to lung cancer when I was 16. For the last 4 years of his life if my sister or I caught a simple cold we had to stay with a relative and could not come home. The danger was real. If we brought the flu to him he would have a high possibility to die. Yet people go every year without one thought or care with the flu shot. Maybe they shrug as they say or could give 2 fcks.

My mother passed away a year ago this upcoming Jan 23rd. Lung Cancer - She was in and out of the ICU 9 times in 2020 alone. Never picked up covid and never had a mask on either. She was in and out of so many medical facilities and around so many people. It was a miracle she never was infected with it. Finally in the end she was in her own words Just tired. My entire family all made sure we were always up to date on flu vax and without any illness before we went to visit her.

Point being we all can learn to live with Covid in our lives. It does not mean we should shut down society for it. The social and mental damage will take years to repair and in some cases it will never be repaired.

I've been getting flu shots every year since my time in the army. I had a bad case once and id like to avoid anything like that again, Also why I got the Covid vax.
I am a very fortunate lung cancer survivor (stage 3a). Given the loss of 1/2 of a lung and the radiation scarring on the remnant, in theory I'm a walking co-morbidity. I blew off masks for myself unless the employees of the establishment I might be visiting were required to wear them, or I was visiting someone that was sick, and I didn't give a rat's ass if people around me wore one. A friend told me that my view on my mortality is skewed given my history, but when I was diagnosed with cancer I wasn't too upset about my apparent short shelf life. I believe in quality of life, not quantity. Cowering in your house isn't living, it's existing. We do need to learn to live with it, with emphasis on LIVE.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I've been wondering that myself. My guess is a combination of continued variants becoming less deadly over time and people surviving previous infections.

Now I'm also sure that we will have more variants. My hope is that they won't be more deadly, esp if they are mutations of the Omicron variant and that they become even less likely to put someone in the hospital. I also think if we can get more medications (I'm referring to pills) that work for mild/moderate cases to keep them from getting worse it would help as well.

It never died out. It just stopped being novel because it infected everybody in the world. Killed about 50m or so when there were many less people in the world. That kind of persistence is what endemic means. Just like swine flu, it didn't disappear, it just became the seasonal strain. Changing enough to persist in the population at a lesser level. That is really what Yaco and I were talking about earlier.

 

[Ultrairon]

I don't understand your question. You should be concerned. Y'all don't have enough population immunity to slow down omicron. But, the data does look increasingly clear that an omicron surge is far preferable to a delta surge. Immunity is due to infection and vaccination or a combo of both. The immune naive are who I am worried about because they will be the ones clogging up hospitals and morgues. 2 doses is not nearly as good as 3 when looking at antibody titers. That is why 2 doses don't really prevent infections. For the antivaxx truthers who don't think vaccines work against omicron.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479166853192761348

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479166853192761348

18-49 those numbers are not as good as I would have thought for cases.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I guess my 4 infected, vaccinated and boosted employees didn't read that study, because it didn't work for them.
Given the infection rate among our vaxxed employees vs, the unvaxxed, and the lack of difference in the severity of symptoms regardless of vaccination status, I can't really recommend it with a straight face anymore.

There is definitely a through line between people like Frank who give advice based on anecdotal evidence using a group where the N is 1 and people who ingest horse dewormer, swamp mud, or s### that turns you blue.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479094592741855235

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/annamerlan/status/1479094592741855235

 

[Ultrairon]

There is definitely a through line between people like Frank who give advice based on anecdotal evidence using a group where the N is 1 and people who ingest horse dewormer, swamp mud, or s### that turns you blue.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479094592741855235

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/annamerlan/status/1479094592741855235

Laughing at that picture. That guy took colloidal silver back in 2008. They should come up with a more up to date example. But that would be too much for "news" outlets like vice.
They should get a picture of the Hollywood types spraying it in the air around them on a plane. Yup that really happened.
Then you got frog goblin and others pushing the crap.

The swamp they are getting it from? Canada!
LOL you say it like its a swamp in the south.

 

[FrankB]

There is definitely a through line between people like Frank who give advice based on anecdotal evidence using a group where the N is 1 and people who ingest horse dewormer, swamp mud, or s### that turns you blue.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479094592741855235

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/annamerlan/status/1479094592741855235

Obviously you missed the point. Citing statistics doesn't mean anything to people that are looking at their peers and seeing no difference or benefit in getting vaccinated.

 

[Cookster15]

I don't understand your question. You should be concerned. Y'all don't have enough population immunity to slow down omicron. But, the data does look increasingly clear that an omicron surge is far preferable to a delta surge. Immunity is due to infection and vaccination or a combo of both. The immune naive are who I am worried about because they will be the ones clogging up hospitals and morgues. 2 doses is not nearly as good as 3 when looking at antibody titers. That is why 2 doses don't really prevent infections. For the antivaxx truthers who don't think vaccines work against omicron.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479166853192761348

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479166853192761348

Thanks for the reply. On the first bold, I don't understand your assertion - Australia has a very high vaccination rate now, prior infection is irrelevant if you are vaccinated correct?

The immune naïve are those who neither have prior infection or vaccination. They are very very few. We also know that pre vaccination only around 1.5% died and most of those were in high risk categories e.g. elderly or other pre existing problems. Hard to see where you get "clogging up" from?

You answered my question at the second bold - which validates the above. Our hospitals and morgues are in no danger of clogging up (yet). Of course we hope it stays that way thanks to vaccination. We will see.

ps - I am double vaccinated and will get the boosters when I am due.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Obviously you missed the point. Citing statistics doesn't mean anything to people that are looking at their peers and seeing no difference or benefit in getting vaccinated.

You are the one that missed the point. Not understanding basic stats leads to poor decisions and gullibility. It is indistinguishable from people researching vaccines and home remedies on facebook. People like that are walking Darwin award candidates.

 

[jmdirt]

Thank you. Hopefully we get full admission that omicron is less deadly. It seems most likely but we still have people who say that is only thanks to vaccination. I really wonder how the Spanish flu ever died out when no vaccines existed.

First of all, H1N1 didn't die out, but it has been really low since then for the most part. I think that the 1918-20 flu killed about 100,000,000 people from a much smaller population than we have now. There was less international travel (way less if you take out the military travel at the end of the war that was probably a huge spreader), there was less travel period (state to state, country to country...). The odds are pretty slim that the Delta or Omicron variants would ever even get to Idaho, or NSW in the early 1900s.

EDIT: Sorry this was already mostly answered.

 

[Cookster15]

First of all, H1N1 didn't die out, but it has been really low since then for the most part. I think that the 1918-20 flu killed about 100,000,000 people from a much smaller population than we have now. There was less international travel (way less if you take out the military travel at the end of the war that was probably a huge spreader), there was less travel period (state to state, country to country...). The odds are pretty slim that the Delta or Omicron variants would ever even get to Idaho, or NSW in the early 1900s.

EDIT: Sorry this was already mostly answered.

I think its a matter of definition of what is meant by "die out" - we are talking in layman's terms here not medicine or epidemiology. No H1N1 (Spanish flu) didn't "die out" but that pandemic did recede, it did stop killing millions and it had nothing to do with vaccines as we have today. Yes the returning soldiers from WWI was the major spreader and that is well documented.

Also, from what I just checked, I see it is generally accepted that Spanish flu killed 20 to 50mil globally.

 

[jmdirt]

I think its a matter of definition of what is meant by "die out" - we are talking in layman's terms here not medicine or epidemiology. No H1N1 (Spanish flu) didn't "die out" but that pandemic did recede, it did stop killing millions and it had nothing to do with vaccines as we have today. Yes the returning soldiers from WWI was the major spreader and that is well documented.

Also, from what I just checked, I see it is generally accepted that Spanish flu killed 20 to 50mil globally.

My memory was 50 Mil, but I watched a documentary that explained how it was likely much closer to double that.

EDIT: I just wikied it and: "Estimates of deaths range from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history"

 

[Nomad]

Unvaccinated Man Feeling Left Out As All His Vaccinated Friends Have COVID

CLEVELAND, OH—Local unvaccinated man Chuck Dornley is feeling very left out this holiday season, as all his vaccinated friends have now contracted COVID.

babylonbee.com

 

[Cookster15]

Regarding the current omicron case explosion in NSW Australia, this came through today (it is behind a paywall so couldn't post the link):

The Omicron wave could peak at 6000 hospitalizations and 600 ICU admissions later this month, in a worst-case scenario based on the latest data from New York, but the trajectory thought to be the most likely would cause hospitalizations to peak at 4700 and intensive care numbers at 273.

 

[Oldermanish]

It never died out. It just stopped being novel because it infected everybody in the world. Killed about 50m or so when there were many less people in the world. That kind of persistence is what endemic means. Just like swine flu, it didn't disappear, it just became the seasonal strain. Changing enough to persist in the population at a lesser level. That is really what Yaco and I were talking about earlier.

As I mentioned earlier; my Sister in law died in 2019 of N1N1. It was sudden, brutal and she was a healthy 50 yo. The symptoms were similar to what has taken out many Covid patients.

While I appreciate the concept that we must go on living and not be totally restricted the facts are there to suggest caution. Some folks live seemingly forever and attribute it to great health and fitness while others are just lucky and eschew vaccinations for any affliction. Congratulations on winning the health lotto! At the same time there are those vulnerable folks that don't wear a sign indicating they have weakened immune systems and may not be aware they are prime targets for serious illness. IMO anecdotal examples aren't science and many here pretend their life experiences represent a validation for society as a whole. That I still have a family member that goes unvaxxed and didn't tell anyone until he developed some conscience pis*ses me off. He has a laundry list of excuses....fitness, great diet (most doctors would disagree) with most of his "science" gleaned from podcasts touting alternative and unproven treatments. He proudly refuses to watch any widely viewed broadcasts as a mark of his well-educated intellectual sophistication. He is like many niche athletes: self involved and narcissistic. It doesn't make him evil but using his opinion as a shield makes him a risk.
That my closest family members that live 200 miles away have all contracted Covid, the youngest afflicted twice suggests that anyone in their daily life circle could be exposed too. It's easy to get and difficult to know long term impacts. They are careful until they let their guard down.

Omicron appears to be mercifully mild to most infected folks like a major portion my Blaine County, Idaho neighbors. They were also hammered by the first wave prompted by wealthy vacationers escaping lockdown mandates in other states and countries. They all were relatively cautious with restaurants requiring masks for entry in spite of a statewide policy of...no protection. The "media" and the former President of the US aren't responsible for my local situation so we could quit blaming them and villanizing medical spokespeople just because we simply want to do that.

 

[Ultrairon]

49% FOR NYC. Unreal just a talking point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479552490764967940

View: https://twitter.com/alykatzz/status/1479552490764967940?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1479552490764967940%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fhealth%2Falmost-half-reported-ny-covid-19-hospitalizations-not-due-covid-19

 

[djpbaltimore]

NYC vaccination is much higher than just about everywhere else.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479396101803638786

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1479396101803638786


And incidental positives do not explain icu cases rising.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479218302954221570

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1479218302954221570

 

[Cookster15]

Omicron is ‘first ray of light’ in Covid pandemic, claims expert (msn.com)

ultimately, in the long term, what happens is Covid becomes endemic and you have a less severe version. It’s very similar to the common cold that we’ve lived with for many years

It (omicron) is, of course, much more transmissible than Delta was, which is concerning, but much less severe

To get a sense of scale, pre Covid America had 2-3 cases of the unvaccinated common cold per year. Covid-19 could evolve into a virus less deadly than influenza. Lets all hope so.