Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[movingtarget]

Plenty of new infections in my community but not many going to hospital. All of the people I know personally, that have caught Covid haven't needed to go to hospital and just about all of them are vaccinated. We are not far off flu season so we will see how that plays out. Many people still wearing masks at least on public transport and in shops.

 

[jmdirt]

This thread running out of puff? Looking at global trends might explain why. It seems obvious to me now that omicron isn't the monster that earlier strains were. According to worldometer, the global 7 day moving average deaths is 3,975/day which is the lowest since late March 2020 when the pandemic was just getting started. The trend is also falling sharply. US deaths are showing a similar very positive trend. I also don't think this is explained simply by vaccination. I suspect more likely lower virulence of omicron compared to earlier strains.

My local trend is showing slight rise in hospitalizations but crucially no statistically significant rise in ICU patients. Again confirming likely lower virulence of omicron.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

USA: About 375,000 Omicron deaths over about (EDIT: 4 months). About 380,000 Delta deaths over about 10 months. About 240,00 deaths from previous variants over the first 8 months.

Omicron is a monster. They've all been monsters.

*NOTE: the USA is over 1,007,000 deaths, but the above numbers only add up to 995,000 because its difficult to pin point the precise switch from one variant to another (obviously not all deaths are sequenced).

 

[Nomad]

This thread running out of puff?

Because the pandemic is over. There's nothing to see and for the most part the MSM isn't reporting on it anymore. The Russia - Ukraine war & the threat of WW3, plus possible food shortages this summer is what is really on people's minds, and obviously dominates the MSM now. Depending on how these issues shake out could make this pandemic look like nothing compared to what could be facing humanity.

That being said, here in Colorado the pandemic is done. Hospitalizations are zilch. 90% of Coloradans have some level of immunity between natural immunity & vaccination. All mandates are history: the college my son attends dropped the vaccine mandate so he doesn't have to test anymore & consequently his stress level has gone down. The City & County of Denver dropped their vaccine mandate so my friend, who has DAI having recovered from a bout of the Delta variant last summer, doesn't have to test anymore. This was stressing her out big time - and the day they dropped the mandate she celebrated. Lol.

Hardly anyone other than a few elderly folks here & there in the stores are wearing masks. At my gym, I see maybe one or two, tops, wearing a mask, and again these are elderly folks who use the aquatics amenities of the gym. I've yet to see any young person wearing a mask at the gym.

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[Nomad]

Hong Kong illustrates that omicron is very deadly in the immune naive. What we are seeing is mostly explained by vaccination. Compare Hong Kong to S korea. Or the UK to the Usa. Suggesting otherwise is motivated reasoning.

No...what we're seeing here is mostly explained by natural immunity. There are still 80 or so million unvaccinated Americans - there wasn't a crisis in hospitalizations & deaths with Omicron. Omicron spread like wildfire infecting millions of people with asymptomatic or very mild infections.

My son works part-time at a gym. They have 12 employees on staff - all but one (my son) tested positive for Omicron over the last couple of months. All had experienced very mild "cold" like symptoms that self-resolved without medical intervention. About half are vaccinated.

How the CDC Buries the Truth about Natural Immunity ⋆ Brownstone Institute

According to the CDC’s own information, the United States has had about 80 million COVID-19 cases. The vast majority of patients recovered from the disease. This huge part of the U.S. population now enjoys natural immunity. This is also true for Canada and many other parts of the world.

brownstone.org

"We've now gradually come to realize that the most effective force that would eventually end the pandemic is natural immunity. Even Bill Gates has admitted that "the virus itself, particularly the variant called Omicron, is a type of vaccine." With the rapid spread of Omicron and with many asymptomatic infections, millions of people have developed natural immunity, which is driving COVID-19 out of the pandemic stage and into endemicity."

 

[Nomad]

USA: About 375,000 Omicron deaths over about 6-7 months. About 380,000 Delta deaths over about 10 months. About 240,00 deaths from previous variants over the first 8 months.

Omicron is a monster. They've all been monsters.

*NOTE: the USA is over 1,007,000 deaths, but the above numbers only add up to 995,000 because its difficult to pin point the precise switch from one variant to another (obviously not all deaths are sequenced).

How can Omicron be a "monster" when all mandates throughout U.S. cities & counties have officially been lifted? As I mentioned previously, my son's college lifted the vaccine mandate and the City & County of Denver scrapped theirs.

Researching nationwide: Boston, DC, Chicago & Cook Co, Seattle & King Co, LA & LA Co, NO, NYC & SF - all lifted or modified their mandates. And I was shocked that NYC & SF, which had the strictest mandates out there (no testing option/no religious exemptions), dropped the mandates when their mayors had said months ago that the mandates would stay in place indefinitely. And think of all the money that was spent by NY on that "Key to NYC" vaccine passport that the mayor said would be a permanent part of society in NYC. Lol.

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[Cookster15]

Plenty of new infections in my community but not many going to hospital. All of the people I know personally, that have caught Covid haven't needed to go to hospital and just about all of them are vaccinated. We are not far off flu season so we will see how that plays out. Many people still wearing masks at least on public transport and in shops.

As you might know I fell victim recently. Yes I avoided hospital as well and I also notice similar to you in Sydney (shops, public transport wearing of masks is still compulsory). The flu season hasn't seen any noticeable spikes in Covid in Australia since the pandemic commenced. I will concede with restrictions eased this winter might be interesting but with vaccination I am not expecting any significant increase in covid cases or hospitalizations. Even today someone complained they had a cold, a few months ago that would likely be Covid - not now. Cases are way down - as they are in America.

But I noticed after this thread being very active it had gone quiet. I think Nomad best explains why. And JMDirt quoting absolute deaths in the US always sounds worse. But America is 330 million people and relative to what America was seeing with Delta cases and deaths are way down as any quick view of the charts shows. Maybe this is warming weather but I seriously doubt that.

 

[Cookster15]

USA: About 375,000 Omicron deaths over about 6-7 months. About 380,000 Delta deaths over about 10 months. About 240,00 deaths from previous variants over the first 8 months.

Omicron is a monster. They've all been monsters.

*NOTE: the USA is over 1,007,000 deaths, but the above numbers only add up to 995,000 because its difficult to pin point the precise switch from one variant to another (obviously not all deaths are sequenced).

I think any casual or even close look at the charts makes obvious that US deaths are way, way down. Maybe this is your warming weather but I doubt that. While there might be more variants and spikes, I suggest this is burning itself out.

 

[djpbaltimore]

No...what we're seeing here is mostly explained by natural immunity. There are still 80 or so million unvaccinated Americans - there wasn't a crisis in hospitalizations & deaths with Omicron. Omicron spread like wildfire infecting millions of people with asymptomatic or very mild infections.

My son works part-time at a gym. They have 12 employees on staff - all but one (my son) tested positive for Omicron over the last couple of months. All had experienced very mild "cold" like symptoms that self-resolved without medical intervention. About half are vaccinated.

How the CDC Buries the Truth about Natural Immunity ⋆ Brownstone Institute

According to the CDC’s own information, the United States has had about 80 million COVID-19 cases. The vast majority of patients recovered from the disease. This huge part of the U.S. population now enjoys natural immunity. This is also true for Canada and many other parts of the world.

brownstone.org

"We've now gradually come to realize that the most effective force that would eventually end the pandemic is natural immunity. Even Bill Gates has admitted that "the virus itself, particularly the variant called Omicron, is a type of vaccine." With the rapid spread of Omicron and with many asymptomatic infections, millions of people have developed natural immunity, which is driving COVID-19 out of the pandemic stage and into endemicity."

That is not true. Maryland had a hospital crisis due to omicron, leading to the stoppage of normal services for a time. Wasn't as bad as unvaccinated places in 2020, but that is the point. Vaccines saved hundreds of thousands of lives just in the USA.

 

[jmdirt]

I think any casual or even close look at the charts makes obvious that US deaths are way, way down. Maybe this is your warming weather but I doubt that. While there might be more variants and spikes, I suggest this is burning itself out.

That wasn't the point that you made, that I replied to. You said that Omicron was not a monster, it was.

USA: About 375,000 Omicron deaths over about 6-7 months. About 380,000 Delta deaths over about 10 months. About 240,00 deaths from previous variants over the first 8 months.

Omicron is a monster. They've all been monsters.

*NOTE: the USA is over 1,007,000 deaths, but the above numbers only add up to 995,000 because its difficult to pin point the precise switch from one variant to another (obviously not all deaths are sequenced).

 

[jmdirt]

As you might know I fell victim recently. Yes I avoided hospital as well and I also notice similar to you in Sydney (shops, public transport wearing of masks is still compulsory). The flu season hasn't seen any noticeable spikes in Covid in Australia since the pandemic commenced. I will concede with restrictions eased this winter might be interesting but with vaccination I am not expecting any significant increase in covid cases or hospitalizations. Even today someone complained they had a cold, a few months ago that would likely be Covid - not now. Cases are way down - as they are in America.

But I noticed after this thread being very active it had gone quiet. I think Nomad best explains why. And JMDirt quoting absolute deaths in the US always sounds worse. But America is 330 million people and relative to what America was seeing with Delta cases and deaths are way down as any quick view of the charts shows. Maybe this is warming weather but I seriously doubt that.

That's just silly. SOUNDS WORSE?! Over a million people have died! Its fantastic that deaths are way down, but that doesn't erase what has happened. "Deaths are down, who cares about the people who already died." Dismissing/ignoring facts isn't 'having a positive attitude'.

This thread went quiet because the people who post facts stopped posting, and that left those who just come here to argue with nothing to post.

 

[Koronin]

That is not true. Maryland had a hospital crisis due to omicron, leading to the stoppage of normal services for a time. Wasn't as bad as unvaccinated places in 2020, but that is the point. Vaccines saved hundreds of thousands of lives just in the USA.

Ohio was similar. My sister had an issue with a chronic illness she has (which her local hospitals cannot do anything with). The only way she could get what needed done done was to get a direct transfer from her local hospital to the hospital that can deal with her medical condition.

I know the 3 major hospitals in Raleigh/Durham have continued full out patient services without interruption since at least the end of 2020. Different areas of the country have been affected differently.

 

[Cookster15]

That's just silly. SOUNDS WORSE?! Over a million people have died! Its fantastic that deaths are way down, but that doesn't erase what has happened. "Deaths are down, who cares about the people who already died." Dismissing/ignoring facts isn't 'having a positive attitude'.

This thread went quiet because the people who post facts stopped posting, and that left those who just come here to argue with nothing to post.

Oh please, nobody can change history!

As for facts, I have been posting facts regularly to balance cherry picked opinions that ignore perspective. I notice my facts are ignored when it doesn't suit personal biases.

Disappointing that you persist in the catastrophist view. Below is a key source of facts (Worldometer). Its very clear and does not require any words or explanation. As you admit, daily new cases and daily deaths are massively down. Cause for rejoice I would have thought. Nobody can change history but if you wish wallow in the past that is your choice. I hope you have similar sympathy for the millions who die from other causes all around the world.

I suggest this pandemic is ending.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

 

[jmdirt]

Oh please, nobody can change history!

As for facts, I have been posting facts regularly to balance cherry picked opinions that ignore perspective. I notice my facts are ignored when it doesn't suit personal biases.

Disappointing that you persist in the catastrophist view. Below is a key source of facts (Worldometer). Its very clear and does not require any words or explanation. As you admit, daily new cases and daily deaths are massively down. Cause for rejoice I would have thought. Nobody can change history but if you wish wallow in the past that is your choice. I hope you have similar sympathy for the millions who die from other causes all around the world.

I suggest this pandemic is ending.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

This discussion is exhibit 500 in why I stopped posting here.

You posted a completely false statement: "Omicron isn't the monster that earlier strains were".

I provided you with factual data (from worldometer) to show that Omicron was in fact every bit the monster that everything before it was. But instead of accepting the facts, you shifted the discussion to me dwelling on the past. I would have no need to post that data if you didn't make a completely false statement.

SC2 has been catastrophic for our world. Your bright ray of sunshine act doesn't change that. Feel free to ignore reality, that is your choice.

I have empathy and sympathy for other people which is one reason why this has been difficult for me. Do I need to apologize for caring?

 

[Cookster15]

This discussion is exhibit 500 in why I stopped posting here.

You posted a completely false statement: "Omicron isn't the monster that earlier strains were".

I provided you with factual data (from worldometer) to show that Omicron was in fact every bit the monster that everything before it was. But instead of accepting the facts, you shifted the discussion to me dwelling on the past. I would have no need to post that data if you didn't make a completely false statement.

SC2 has been catastrophic for our world. Your bright ray of sunshine act doesn't change that. Feel free to ignore reality, that is your choice.

I have empathy and sympathy for other people which is one reason why this has been difficult for me. Do I need to apologize for caring?

And I have provided data from worldometer and my local state in Australia. It is your interpretation and commentary which is glass half empty. That isn’t empathy or sympathy.

I am focused on the current and future trend not the past which I don’t deny but we can’t change. The trend is positive. I reject the claim I have no empathy or sympathy.

 

[jmdirt]

And I have provided data from worldometer and my local state in Australia. It is your interpretation and commentary which is glass half empty. That isn’t empathy or sympathy.

I am focused on the current and future trend not the past which I don’t deny but we can’t change. The trend is positive. I reject the claim I have no empathy or sympathy.

So you are not willing to own your false statement? WOW!

Let me state again, your lie was why I had to dig up past data. It was wasn't me dwelling on the past, it was you lying about the past.

My glass is two thirds full (4/2/2022).

The reason the past matters to me is because I have empathy and sympathy.

Who claimed that you don't have have empathy or sympathy? Talk to them, not to me, about it.

 

[Ultrairon]

“This Shouldn’t Happen”: Inside the Virus-Hunting Nonprofit at the Center of the Lab-Leak Controversy

Chasing scientific renown, grant dollars, and approval from Dr. Anthony Fauci, Peter Daszak transformed the environmental nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance into a government-funded sponsor of risky, cutting-edge virus research in both the U.S. and Wuhan, China. Drawing on more than 100,000 leaked...

www.vanityfair.com

A ton of info in this article. If you have not read a free article for vanity fair you should be able to read this one without paying. Amazing that scientist and people will discount everything and go to the extremes to suppress discussion.
Dr. Television was busy trying to shut everyone up so he could stay on TV.

 

[djpbaltimore]

“This Shouldn’t Happen”: Inside the Virus-Hunting Nonprofit at the Center of the Lab-Leak Controversy

Chasing scientific renown, grant dollars, and approval from Dr. Anthony Fauci, Peter Daszak transformed the environmental nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance into a government-funded sponsor of risky, cutting-edge virus research in both the U.S. and Wuhan, China. Drawing on more than 100,000 leaked...

www.vanityfair.com

A ton of info in this article. If you have not read a free article for vanity fair you should be able to read this one without paying. Amazing that scientist and people will discount everything and go to the extremes to suppress discussion.
Dr. Television was busy trying to shut everyone up so he could stay on TV.

Vanity fair is where everybody goes for updates about... <looks at notes>... Virology?!?!

Discussion was suppressed so much that the paper in question was posted on a preprint server for everyone to see and then published in the scientific literature. Lol.

 

[Oldermanish]

From the daily Mail. Another quick article I read indicated it could eliminate symptoms in three days and made no mention of actual viral negation. Good news either way.

New wonder antiviral drug can eliminate Covid-19 from the body after just TWO days of treatment - as Omicron cases continue to rise in Australia

 

[Oldermanish]

“This Shouldn’t Happen”: Inside the Virus-Hunting Nonprofit at the Center of the Lab-Leak Controversy

Chasing scientific renown, grant dollars, and approval from Dr. Anthony Fauci, Peter Daszak transformed the environmental nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance into a government-funded sponsor of risky, cutting-edge virus research in both the U.S. and Wuhan, China. Drawing on more than 100,000 leaked...

www.vanityfair.com

A ton of info in this article. If you have not read a free article for vanity fair you should be able to read this one without paying. Amazing that scientist and people will discount everything and go to the extremes to suppress discussion.
Dr. Television was busy trying to shut everyone up so he could stay on TV.

So are you blaming Fauci for the pandemic? Not sure why this horse requires more flogging.....

 

[Nomad]

Omicron was in fact every bit the monster that everything before it was. But instead of accepting the facts, you shifted the discussion to me dwelling on the past. I would have no need to post that data if you didn't make a completely false statement.

Here's your "monster"- you can watch the video and hear it from the horse's mouth:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494790335658172426

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/barereality/status/1494790335658172426?lang=en


The pandemic is over - the Omicron variant changed the dynamics of the virus. I'd think you would be quite happy that the worst is behind us & the future looks bright.

 

[Nomad]

I never thought I'd ever see this- more reason the pandemic is over:

Sources: NYC mandate to be rolled back Thu.

New York City's vaccine mandate for athletes will be lifted Thursday, sources said, paving the way for Nets star Kyrie Irving to be back on the Barclays Center court Sunday and for unvaccinated MLB players to play in their home openers.

www.google.com

There's no way NYC would lift the mandate & allow "unvaccinated" players into their venues if the pandemic wasn't over.

 

[jmdirt]

Oh please, nobody can change history!

As for facts, I have been posting facts regularly to balance cherry picked opinions that ignore perspective. I notice my facts are ignored when it doesn't suit personal biases.

Disappointing that you persist in the catastrophist view. Below is a key source of facts (Worldometer). Its very clear and does not require any words or explanation. As you admit, daily new cases and daily deaths are massively down. Cause for rejoice I would have thought. Nobody can change history but if you wish wallow in the past that is your choice. I hope you have similar sympathy for the millions who die from other causes all around the world.

I suggest this pandemic is ending.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

It seems obvious to me now that omicron isn't the monster that earlier strains were.

If that isn't someone changing history, I don't know what is.

 

[Ultrairon]

Recently went to the UK for business trip last week. In the UK very few people are wearing masks even in London Heathrow. BA gave out masks on boarding but many people were on the flight without the mask on. Officially the UK called the pandemic over and are moving on. It was over in the southern states after the first few months so nothing new for them.

Time to find out when the pandemic really started and what the origins are.

 

[Ultrairon]

Omnicron could not have been the monster of panic shown by the media and they still held the Olympics. The cases were not even half that and Tokyo had to cancel their Olympics then when they finally got to put the Olympics on it was like they were punished by the world for no real fans etc. They got slammed economically meanwhile a short time later along comes ominicron and their is media panic cases jump to the highest they ever were. No problem the winter Olympics must go on. Pandemic is over.

 

[Ultrairon]

Vanity fair is where everybody goes for updates about... <looks at notes>... Virology?!?!

Discussion was suppressed so much that the paper in question was posted on a preprint server for everyone to see and then published in the scientific literature. Lol.

I realize its not twitter and it is the media but when they source an article its worth a read. I feel sorry for people who do not allow for science to change with additional facts.

Its an investigative piece that links to articles such as preprint data to the NIH, and posted to Biorxiv.org

Recovery of deleted deep sequencing data sheds more light on the early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains shrouded in mystery. Here I identify a data set containing SARS-CoV-2 sequences from early in the Wuhan epidemic that has been deleted from the NIH’s Sequence Read Archive. I recover the deleted files from the Google Cloud, and reconstruct...

www.biorxiv.org

Recovery of deleted deep sequencing data sheds more light on the early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains shrouded in mystery. Here I identify a data set containing SARS-CoV-2 sequences from early in the Wuhan epidemic that has been deleted from the NIH’s Sequence Read Archive. I recover the deleted files from the Google Cloud, and reconstruct...

www.biorxiv.org

no animals near the market had coronavirus. "no virus was detected in the animal swabs covering 18 species of animals in the market. "

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the environment and animal samples of the Huanan Seafood Market

Emerging in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) eventually became a pandemic and has posed a tremendous threat to global public health. However, the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, remain to be determined. It has reported that a certain number of the early c...

www.researchsquare.com

Early origin , as it stands December 2019 was not the start of the virus.

Waiting for the truth: is reluctance in accepting an early origin hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 delaying our understanding of viral emergence?

Two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, key questions about the emergence of its aetiological agent (SARS-CoV-2) remain a matter of considerable debate. Identifying when SARS-CoV-2 began spreading among people is one of those questions. Although the current canonically accepted...

gh.bmj.com