Critérium du Dauphiné 2012 stage 4, 53.5km, Villié-Morgon-Bourg-en-Bresse, ITT

[Arnout]

This man. Watch out for him.

 

[Lanark]

The earlier they attack, the more time they're pushing wind whilst Wiggins sits behind Porte and Froome on a climbs with gradients where drafting makes a major difference (even 10% reduction in required wattage is more than the difference between Wiggins and the best climber).

But what if Porte and Froome lose a couple of minutes to the best climbers, how good is your 10% reduction in wattage then? It seems a bit dangerous to bet everything on a couple of guys who have yet to show anything in the real Tour mountains.

 

[jobiwan]

We need a saviour and a hero to avoid Wiggo/Sky regime


PAX SKY

 

[goggalor]

Can't really see anyone challenging Wiggo for the win here after today. Which is a shame, I would've liked to see whether anyone would be willing to risk going all out for the win and potentially ruin their Tour.

 

[Gloin22]

Day in yellow > 24th on gc

I was just using it show point that Evans didnt have great Tour too that year. He sucked as much as Wiggins. I dont think 25 in Tour is so great for Evans

But dwlsonnic is pointing out Wiggo sucked a lot in 2010. He did. But so did Evans. No matter if he had yellow for one 'amazing' day

 

[Arnout]

I will cheer for him if he attacks, he's more exciting to watch for sure.

 

[Leonardus]

So it's clear Wiggins is the best TT'er of the gc men, very impressive today as was the whole skytrain. Now let's see how he deals with some serious climbing, could be a different story is my guess.
Also is anyone else feeling that Wiggo is peaking too early?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

But what if Porte and Froome lose a couple of minutes to the best climbers, how good is your 10% reduction in wattage then? It seems a bit dangerous to bet everything on a couple of guys who have yet to show anything in the real Tour mountains.

I don't believe in super heroes.


Andy got a massive gap last year because nobody chased . As soon as Cadel rode on the last climb he lost 2 minutes.

Froome & Porte are not world beaters, but they can drive a peloton along a 5.5W/Kilo and stop anyone riding on their own from taking a serious gap before the final climb without that person putting themselves miles in the red and collapsing on the last climb.

Obviously when we get to the last climb, its on Wiggins.

I'm intrigued by the rest of this race, given its the first chance to see Wiggins on a proper climb this year.

 

[TechnicalDescent]

You could be right...

if it weren't for the fact that riders who are on the top of their game in the Dauphiné, always fail in the Tour. Ask Cadel Evans.

For many years there were rider who would find an magical edge after the Dauphine, but I think this is more to do with clinic material. For riders like Evans and Wiggins, I don't think there is going to be a huge change between now and July in their form. Evans has to be worried about the ITT now. He will have to take a lot of time from Wiggins in the mountains and I think that will be hard to do.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

So it's clear Wiggins is the best TT'er of the gc men, very impressive today as was the whole skytrain. Now let's see how he deals with some serious climbing, could be a different story is my guess.
Also is anyone else feeling that Wiggo is peaking too early?

No, the same was said for PN.

 

[goggalor]

This man. Watch out for him.

I really hope he comes good for the Tour. Evans vs. Wiggins is already getting old, and we aren't even in July.

 

[Ruby United]

But what if Porte and Froome lose a couple of minutes to the best climbers, how good is your 10% reduction in wattage then? It seems a bit dangerous to bet everything on a couple of guys who have yet to show anything in the real Tour mountains.

Froome and Porte can lose 10 minutes on one med mountain stage to the best climbers and still be the best domestiques in the tour.

 

[dlwssonic]

You guys make me chuckle:

Wiggins is just a time trialist, there is no way he can win a stage race like the Dauphine (2011).....actually there is no way Wiggins can contest the uphill TT in Paris-Nice.........no wait, actually there is no way Wiggins will beat Tony Martin in a long ITT hmmmm wait actually there is no way Wiggins will gain so much time on a 'peaked' CE at the tour after 2/3 weeks......YES! I CAN STILL SAY THAT.

Evans is older than Wiggins, has a weaker tour team (yes quiet at the back there, its true and you know it) and has just had a major psychological blow put into him by almost being overtaken by Mr Wiggins. Exactly why is CE suddenly going to become invincible in 3 weeks? Sky have been working at this for a long time, they deserve the results.

I think evans is having his best years in his older ages.
Yes sky is slighty strong than BMC.
But BMC are strong enough, they have great flat domestiques.
Just see last years tour they always kept cadel out of trouble, unlike sky
No lol you know evans got beaten by wiggins by 1 minute plus in last years dauphine TT. Which was shorter and hilly and should have suited evans much more. Was strong as ever by le tour. Evans was as confident as ever in le tour and there were no stupid psyhological blows.

At least cadel has shown that he can become strong over 3 weeks, strong enough to win a GT. Unlike wiggins.
Oh yeah Im sure liquigas, RSNT, BMC, katusha have been lazing around and not bothering about le tour.
Sky have been the only ones working hard

 

[theyoungest]

For many years there were rider who would find an magical edge after the Dauphine, but I think this is more to do with clinic material. For riders like Evans and Wiggins, I don't think there is going to be a huge change between now and July in their form. Evans has to be worried about the ITT now. He will have to take a lot of time from Wiggins in the mountains and I think that will be hard to do.

Evans wasn't great in the Dauphiné last year either. He was great in 2009, and after that he rode the worst Tour he's done without crashing, I think.

 

[Gloin22]

Wiggins won a stage in every race he started this year. Quite impressive, even though he wins mostly came in ITT's.

Also he has best CQ Efficiency per day raced, better than Purito etc. No matter what Wiggins is on course for his best year in cycling ever.

 

[Trunnions]

I'm intrigued by the rest of this race, given its the first chance to see Wiggins on a proper climb this year.

He climbed very well on successive days in the 2009 TdF, and he reports his physiology indicates improved performance is expected this July.

 

[will10]

Care to remember Wiggins did still better at Tour 2010 than Evans

I don't remember Wiggins in the front group on the Arenberg or taking the lead at Morzine, but my memory isn't that great.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Evans wasn't great in the Dauphiné last year either. He was great in 2009, and after that he rode the worst Tour he's done without crashing, I think.

At the heart of this problem, is that cycling careers are not long enough for meaningful trends to be established.

Cadel has been average at the Dauphine and won the Tour afterwards once.

He's been similar, sometimes better, sometimes worse, and lost the Tour several times.

It's all just guesswork really, but I suppose we'd have to waste our time discussing something else if we couldn't guess at this.

 

[Ferminal]

I don't remember Wiggins in the front group on the Arenberg or taking the lead at Morzine, but my memory isn't that great.

He went deep in the Giro though, remember his epic attack on Monte Grappa?

 

[Arnout]

He climbed very well on successive days in the 2009 TdF, and he reports his physiology indicates improved performance is expected this July.

Ah, the 2009 Tour. There was one day with more than one climb in the stage and in that stage he couldn't keep up.

 

[Panda Claws]

Just what I was thinking. JVDB did well by his standards, but losing more than 2 minutes in the Dauphiné means he'll probably lose around 3.5 to 5 minutes in the Tour, and he'll never manage to take back that much time. Top 5 is the best he can hope for.

Overall though, this was one of the more exciting time-trials I've watched so far

VDB2 will likelyhave improved more than Wiggins by the start of the Tour.

 

[roundabout]

He climbed very well on successive days in the 2009 TdF, and he reports his physiology indicates improved performance is expected this July.

This is actually scary. I can live with Nozal like performances (as in smashing everything in the TT and then struggling whenever the pace went up), but smashing everything in the TT and being a top-5 climber (if not better) would make a quite boring race.

But ok, let's see what happens in Tds with bottle and Gesink.

 

[johnnycash]

Todays ITT was great for the spectator I thought.

I don't think Skys team are that amazing, but they seem to be able to get the most out of their riders. Whatever the team are saying to their riders its working. I'd say BMC, RSNT and OMQS have more potential in all races (except perhaps bunch sprints) but Sky are just getting that extra few %, don't refer me to the Clinic, thats not what I'm implying.

I've had reservations before but now I think they can win the Tour, partly due to the parcours, partly due to their competitors form and absence of a true favourite, but I do think this is their time now.

Wiggo's been in form for months, first TT in Algarve was pretty tidy and that was ages ago. I don't think that will be an issue, a broken collarbone might be though.

 

[JibberJim]

I don't think Wiggins was really quite as dominant as suggested. He went for his full normal front TT wheel, evans for something tiny. The tri-spoke also is very fast (but not very stable) in a crosswind. After getting close enough for Evans's cars to be pulled out, he stopped making up any time on Evans. So either he faded, or Evans lifted his effort - looking against Martin I'd say the later. Which suggests that Evans wasn't actually on a max effort (could simply be motivation as opposed to going easy deliberately, but he'll be motivated in the tour) Wiggins and Martin could've both faded similarly of course.

Martin is probably not at his best, he's not been back that long, so I'm not convinced it was a completely faithful example of their true ability.

 

[Trunnions]

Ah, the 2009 Tour. There was one day with more than one climb in the stage and in that stage he couldn't keep up.

You forgot stage 17.

And who, realistically, can keep pace with Bert and Andy punching on a climb?

Wiggo kept his own rhythm and was there when it mattered.

And in better form today.

Mentally... he's very strong too.

You don't become Triple Olympic Champion by fretting in cubicles.