Critérium du Dauphiné 08/12 > 08/16/20

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Which rider will surprise the most?

  • Sepp Kuss

    Votes: 3 4.7%
  • Enric Mas

    Votes: 8 12.5%
  • Chris Froome

    Votes: 12 18.8%
  • Sergio Higuita

    Votes: 13 20.3%
  • Adam Yates

    Votes: 3 4.7%
  • Dylan Teuns

    Votes: 2 3.1%
  • Benoît Cosnefroy

    Votes: 3 4.7%
  • Guillaume Martin

    Votes: 10 15.6%
  • other, French

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • other, non-French

    Votes: 11 17.2%

  • Total voters
    64
  • Poll closed .
So this was the best guess regarding Froome and others, pre-Dauphine on the Tour de L'Ain thread August 9:

The Tour starts in two weeks....Unless Froome is planning a stealth assault on the Tour and is sitting on form we are seeing what we'll see.
Geraint and Bernal can certainly move up a bit as well. Dumoulin and Bennett can as well so there is that for Jumbo. There will be other animators, crash victims and bonkers to make this Tour exciting!


It wasn't difficult to project some of it but there was more crashing and aggression than most of us expected. Is it possible everyone is so antsy that the same craziness will creep into the early Tour?
 
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Some of the (poor) performances seemed so out there ( Thomas for instance) I wonder if it's possible some riders got sick with corovirus but the teams didn't report it? I'm not sure what the requirements were for reporting positive tests if the transmission wasn't related to a race or team training?

Of course, the more likely explanation is that some folks had more opportunities to train outside, and some riders probably just dealt the weird circumstances better than others. Like Kuss, who said in his post-race interview that he actually stayed really positive and was able to "just enjoy riding my bike for fun again." Given that his form ( not just today but throughout the Dauphine) was superlative, there might be something to the importance of how riders handled the layoff. Only a sample size of 1, that's true!
 
oh puhleeeze! Lol!! Semantics on a discussion board.

got nothing else?

guess u can find nothing unfactual about the others. You must be praying for some huge event to happen in the next two days so that u can point to it desperately. Lol. And lol again

whatever.

what is the mountain stage that u remember in the last few years? Froome at the Giro. Basically that’s it. Even if u r not a fan of him. And why did it happen? Because u had a rider who was far enough back in time to risk everything. And he had panache. That is what makes it exciting. Not the rinse and repeat bs we see in 99% of MTFs.
:)
 
Some of the (poor) performances seemed so out there ( Thomas for instance) I wonder if it's possible some riders got sick with corovirus but the teams didn't report it? I'm not sure what the requirements were for reporting positive tests if the transmission wasn't related to a race or team training?

Of course, the more likely explanation is that some folks had more opportunities to train outside, and some riders probably just dealt the weird circumstances better than others. Like Kuss, who said in his post-race interview that he actually stayed really positive and was able to "just enjoy riding my bike for fun again." Given that his form ( not just today but throughout the Dauphine) was superlative, there might be something to the importance of how riders handled the layoff. Only a sample size of 1, that's true!
Sample size of 2. Valverde was in a country locked down for basically 2 months. Didn't believe they would race again this year and trained to do nothing more than keep and off season base level. He also said there was no reason to train for anything because there weren't any goals. So it would appear that Kuss being able to ride outside and having a positive outlook helped. Where Valverde was locked at home for months with a negative outlook. (Of course there's also a huge age difference between them as well and Valverde is one of the riders whom when younger could race himself into race shape in a shorter amount of time than other riders can.) I actually your thoughts on how riders handled the layoff could or likely is at least a partial factor in how they are riding currently.
 
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Sample size of 2. Valverde was in a country locked down for basically 2 months. Didn't believe they would race again this year and trained to do nothing more than keep and off season base level. He also said there was no reason to train for anything because there weren't any goals. So it would appear that Kuss being able to ride outside and having a positive outlook helped. Where Valverde was locked at home for months with a negative outlook. (Of course there's also a huge age difference between them as well and Valverde is one of the riders whom when younger could race himself into race shape in a shorter amount of time than other riders can.) I actually your thoughts on how riders handled the layoff could or likely is at least a partial factor in how they are riding currently.
That and Kuss lives and trains at altitude with a lot of locals that will work with him. My guess is the amateurs in that region would volunteer to test him. Racing is the best training like Valverde and DuMoulin will prove out eventually.
 
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That and Kuss lives and trains at altitude with a lot of locals that will work with him. My guess is the amateurs in that region would volunteer to test him. Racing is the best training like Valverde and DuMoulin will prove out eventually.
I do agree with you that Valverde and Dumoulin will eventually show racing is the best training. I know multiple people have said that's part of why Valverde races so much. He finds racing to better training.

That is likely going to be helpful for Kuss as he progresses in his career. Valverde has the "Murcian Grupetto", maybe Kuss can have his own grupetto.
 
I do agree with you that Valverde and Dumoulin will eventually show racing is the best training. I know multiple people have said that's part of why Valverde races so much. He finds racing to better training.

That is likely going to be helpful for Kuss as he progresses in his career. Valverde has the "Murcian Grupetto", maybe Kuss can have his own grupetto.
It's not unlike the iconic jazz drummer Buddy Rich's approach to his craft. It's been said he didn't like to practice, but in reality he used shows and live performances to hone his ability. He did so many shows that they became his practice. And the pressure of performing live (the real thing) was something that he felt kept him sharper. Screwing up in practice is one thing, but screwing up in a live performance is a different kettle of fish.
 
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If I remember correctly Martinez was on about 300-1 odds to win the Tour, probably had similar odds to win the Dauphine.

We almost had Sivakov and Kuss as highest GC riders for their teams, wonder what the odds would've been for that. Damn Dumoulin, the only leader we can rely on!
 
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A few days of not being able to follow cycling and if i understand correctly. ATM TJV is a class above other teams and a whole lot of health issues or injuries involved. Roglič, Bernal and Quintana out of Critérium du Dauphiné before the finish, due to health issues or injuries. Evenepoel injured due to crash at Il Lombardia. And some worried the Tour could end up being boring, or if we should add gravel to the mix? Hope that all injured riders will recover quickly.

P.S. Pogačar could cope with favorites, Aru could not.
 
Some of the (poor) performances seemed so out there ( Thomas for instance) I wonder if it's possible some riders got sick with corovirus but the teams didn't report it? I'm not sure what the requirements were for reporting positive tests if the transmission wasn't related to a race or team training?

Of course, the more likely explanation is that some folks had more opportunities to train outside, and some riders probably just dealt the weird circumstances better than others. Like Kuss, who said in his post-race interview that he actually stayed really positive and was able to "just enjoy riding my bike for fun again." Given that his form ( not just today but throughout the Dauphine) was superlative, there might be something to the importance of how riders handled the layoff. Only a sample size of 1, that's true!
It's for sure the exceptional circumstances that have lead to some (un)exceptional performances of riders today. And i'm sure we'll see that even more during the Tour. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a surprise Tour winner.
Some riders are really good after a long training period (in altitude). Roglic never needed much racing to be in top shape for example. Others need racing to get to that top form.
And i'm sure that can get tricky very tricky. Being exceptionally good at one point after a long training block and needed racing..and then losing form because you've been doing too much. Or because there isn't a firm basic form because of a periode of not training of not being able to race in such a long time.
Riders are all different in how they cope with things and what they need to be able to be in top shape.
For me there's really no guessing as how things will go in the Tour.
 
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As much as I hope for a surprising, thrilling Tour - everything we saw before those crashes (and back pains and knee pains) was Jumblebeebots reigning the race. So, if Roglic recovers well (and I think he only has bruises, he was even able to end that stage), why would we be in for an exciting Tour? Don't understand me wrong, I hope you're right...
Then even if Roglic does not recover well or has some other issues during the Tour I think they will not use up Dumoulin early, but make sure that he is close enough to take over in that case. They have Tony and Gesink for the flat. Van Aert for the early mountains and hills. Bennett and Kuss for the mountains. And each of them seems to be very able to pull for more than a few hundred meters.
 
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TJV obviously is already in the Tour form. I am sure that others will catch up. And as we could see at Critérium du Dauphiné, the overall GT winner didn't came from a super team, or wasn't considered a favorite, before the race started. This is pro cycling and all bets are off, once a GT race starts.

P.S. If Roglič will win, considering all the things that happened in the past few years, hard to say that wouldn't be exciting, by itself. There obviously is a disturbance in the peloton, considering the past few years. The nature of the change is, it usually is exciting.
 
Now i see Kruijswijk got a rather nasty set of injuries too. Hope he recovers quickly.

P.S. Roglič sacrificing Critérium du Dauphiné overall win, by not undertaking stage 5, that shows some real commitment, towards the Tour 2020 goal.
 
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Aug 17, 2020
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Let’s face it, the Dauphine is just a warm up. Gauge fitness, work on strategy, check out the others, work on team functions especially this year with a virus. The main GC contenders probably placed little value on winning this race. The Tour contenders are still who we thought they were sans Froome. He has virtually no chance. I just hope they can race without it exploding in virus problems.
 
Yeah, it's almost as if it wasn't just obvious that this post of yours would age rather poorly - it was already rotten before you hit submit :p

(And it definitely has signature quality)
Don't forget this either: :D
Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.
In before I jinx Pogacar and he totally disappears from GT contention in future years.
 
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