he put 3 minutes (or thereabouts) into pog in Cardiff in 48 kms (and pog medaled in the road race, so in shape).
Yeah, remind me when was the last time when Pogacar was outside of top 20 in a GT TT? Never? That alone shows that Pogacar wasn't in shape for the TT/was too tired from the RR.
On form Pogacar beats Oliveira 9/10 in a GT TT and Oliveira didn't even lose 2 minutes on this TT.
I would say between 1.30 and 2 minutes is possible over 50 kilometres, but hardly more than that.