Critérium du Dauphiné May 30-June 6 2021

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There are many surprising results here, but if you look at all of it, the picture changes a bit in my opinion.

We have Lutsenko, Izagirre, Vingegaard, Pöstlberger among the top10, while guys like Thomas and Bjerg underperformed.
I think for some results here the bikes or maybe a good recon, good preparation/ DS might be responsible. Obviously the route was indeed hard to judge, difficult to get a steady rhythm on and the end was very punchy.
So some just managed the route better than others. I don't think the results are a very good indicator of form or strength, just a hint.
Bjerg underperformed? Seems perfectly in line with his ITT's since turning pro, if not better than expected considering this course, actually.
 
What a crazy win by Lutsenko.

I have the feeling that a lot of people weren't that surprised by his victory because he seems like a rider who could ride a good ITT. The problem, however, is that he never does it!

His last international (Asian Championships are excluded as well) top 10 result in an ITT dates back to Three Days of De Panne in 2016, where he was 7th! In 2014, he was 8th on the final stage of the Vuelta after having won the ITT in Post Danmark Rundt. And that's it. Nothing else on the international pro scene but he does have a couple of national titles.

Completely random win today.
I feel like it was a bit like the TT that Alaphilippe won in the Tour; it wasn't really a course suited to a TT specialist, it was a course ideal for a puncheur to solo away from a lead group with 16km to go, especially the 2nd half (so maybe 8km to go). Up, down, left, right, speed bump, road furniture, sometimes all at the same time. Not many places to get in the skis and lay down the watts, so it was always likely to throw up an odd result like this.
 
I feel like it was a bit like the TT that Alaphilippe won in the Tour; it wasn't really a course suited to a TT specialist, it was a course ideal for a puncheur to solo away from a lead group with 16km to go, especially the 2nd half (so maybe 8km to go). Up, down, left, right, speed bump, road furniture, sometimes all at the same time. Not many places to get in the skis and lay down the watts, so it was always likely to throw up an odd result like this.
I guess Roglic was smart to skip it then;)
 
The biggest surprise about the result is that Lutsenko's form has been poor for most of the season - This was a bolt from the blue.
also Ion's time trials this year weren't exactly great so far, especially as those were all courses pretty well cuited to him, and in good shape (contrary to Lutsenko).

Would be interesting to know where Aranburu could have ended up without the crash. Astana massively upped their game today.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Okay, then I simply overestimated him / had a wrong memory.
His results since 2020:

11th in Algarve (52s behind the winner, 20k)
13th in Tirreno (44s, 10k)
17th WCC ITT (1m47s, 32k)
3rd in Giro (22s, 15k)
14th in Giro (2m32s, 34k)
27th in Giro (1m19s, 16k)
3rd in UAE Tour (21s, 13k)
15th in Dauphiné (35s, 16k)

The two outliers (3rd spots) in his results were short-ish and flat/downhill ITT's, and more technical than today's IIRC.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Very interesting stage tomorrow.

Starting on a climb, lumpy all day, with a finale that has a short, sharp cat. 2, with the summit only 12k from the finish (mostly downhill).

Both Lutsenko and Asgreen can take the jersey by taking the stage.
Lutsenko can even afford to come 2nd to Asgreen, if they get the same time, as Lutsenko then takes the jersey by 4 seconds.

Both teams are certain to have plans to attack Postlberger.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan

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