Critérium du Dauphiné May 30-June 6 2021

[Red Rick]

And ignore the fact that Carapaz has beaten Roglic and only lost to him due to time bonuses in their last 2 grand tours where they were riding for GC. And ignoring the fact that Pog's TT was an absolute freak and nowhere near represents his normal performance level.

Are you really gonna ignore that Roglic was running on fumes in that Vuelta and lost most of his time due to a rain jacket anyway?

 

[Pirazziattacks]

After today, I'm not.

The level on display is just ridiculous, i.e. Padun's climbing time is the stuff of legends: Subiendo como una moto: Mark Padun indurains La Plagne! (climbing-records.com)

23.3 kph at Indurain's weight is truly mind boggling.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

BTW, you can look up all Tour routes here: https://www.touratlas.nl/etappekaarten

Thanks, I'm definitely bookmarking that!

 

[railxmig]

And ignore the fact that Carapaz has beaten Roglic and only lost to him due to time bonuses in their last 2 grand tours where they were riding for GC. And ignoring the fact that Pog's TT was an absolute freak and nowhere near represents his normal performance level.

Considering what Poga's doing this year that freak TT might be his "normal" level. However, with donkeys like Padun riding near Indurain's nuclear time and there being 10 people within 1min the time diffs between the Slovenians and the rest of the world may not be as big.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Roglic misfired the 2019 Giro. And arguably the odd classic here and there.

Even considering something like 13th at LBL this year an arguable misfire for a rider who's on GT run of 4th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st since 2018 is a testament to his incredible consistency.

 

[johnymax]

And ignore the fact that Carapaz has beaten Roglic and only lost to him due to time bonuses in their last 2 grand tours where they were riding for GC. And ignoring the fact that Pog's TT was an absolute freak and nowhere near represents his normal performance level.

I don't know who ignores those facts, but I think the time bonuses thing is silly. Time bonuses are a big part of GTs and other stage races as well. It's an important rule. Similar to the rule when the last rider in a group gets credited with the same time as the first rider of that same group, despite there can be 3s, 5s, or 10s between them in real time on the road. Did you also count those occasions, when Roglič won the sprint of a big group, while Carapaz was chilling behind in the middle of the group, yet they both were credited with the same time? I remember a stage from that Vuelta, where Roglič badly outsprinted everybody on an uphill finish, yet because there was a touch of wheels 300m from the finish, everybody got same time as him. But those are the rules and you have to adapt to them. There's no special final ranking without time bonuses, like there's no special final ranking and jersey for the winner without TTs.

Also I'm not going too deep into the Giro 2019 because I could end up writing an essay. I'm just gonna say, there are many different circumstances with a lot of factors to consider. People also ignore the fact that Vingegaard beat Pogačar in Pais Vasco. Just to give an example.

Having said that, I absolutely expect Carapaz to be strong and he'll be a serious threat to win the Tour.

 

[roundabout]

Time bonuses are silly. But anyway, it is a statement how close Carapaz was and that Roglic is not dominant in all states of the universe.

 

[Leinster]

Considering what Poga's doing this year that freak TT might be his "normal" level. However, with donkeys like Padun riding near Indurain's nuclear time and there being 10 people within 1min the time diffs between the Slovenians and the rest of the world may not be as big.

I don’t think Padun’s a “donkey,” I’ve actually been surprised with how far down he’s been finishing in every stage this Dauphiné, and my first thought when I saw today’s result was “I knew he’d been soft-pedaling.”

I think we should more be surprised that it’s taken so long for Indurain’s record to fall. Clinic or no, Padun today didn’t get close to Miguelon’s W/kg, even just if you swap their bikes.

 

[Leinster]

Time bonuses are silly. But anyway, it is a statement how close Carapaz was and that Roglic is not dominant in all states of the universe.

Not rewarding stage wins would be even sillier.

 

[BigCoward]

Are you really gonna ignore that Roglic was running on fumes in that Vuelta and lost most of his time due to a rain jacket anyway?

Are you going to ignore that he has choked massively twice in GC at grand tours, and his palmares would be much better if he could handle pressure?

 

[roundabout]

Not rewarding stage wins would be even sillier.

Stage win is a reward in itself.

 

[Red Rick]

Are you going to ignore that he has choked massively twice in GC at grand tours, and his palmares would be much better if he could handle pressure?

Ah yes, Pogacar rode the craziest ITT in the last 20 years cause Roglic was choking.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Great and surprising performance by Padun. From GC contenders Porte was the strongest and deserved the victory - he pulled for a few km ahead of Maas and attacked at the end. I'm shocked that Padun beat Indurain's time - it's kinda worrying TBH.

EDIT: he didn't beat (different start points) but still had a very good performance.

Tomorrow should be interesting as others will attack Porte. Joux Plane is a steep, difficult climb that cracked Armstrong one day.

 

[railxmig]

I don’t think Padun’s a “donkey,” I’ve actually been surprised with how far down he’s been finishing in every stage this Dauphiné, and my first thought when I saw today’s result was “I knew he’d been soft-pedaling.”

I think we should more be surprised that it’s taken so long for Indurain’s record to fall. Clinic or no, Padun today didn’t get close to Miguelon’s W/kg, even just if you swap their bikes.

"Donkey" wasn't as literal. Compared to guys you would expect to smash such climbs like MAL, Slovenians, S. A. Yates or Bernal he's a donkey. i know that with Ponomar he's a potential Ukrainian future like Honchar and Popo were once.

That Indurain record held so long because La Plagne is sadly not a popular climb and it seems in 2010s the times were generally a bit slower. Also i could swear that in 95 they ended at 1800. Maybe it was year later? I think i may confuse it with La Plagne's neighbor - Les Arcs. There you can end at ~1850m and ~2120m. Similary to how you can have La Plagne 1800, La Plagne 2000 like today, Belle Plagne and La Plagne Villages (up to 2120m).

 

[tobydawq]

Everyone seems very sure that the Slovenians won't misfire.

Yes, and they are right in making that assumption.

 

[Leinster]

Are you going to ignore that he has choked massively twice in GC at grand tours, and his palmares would be much better if he could handle pressure?

He finished 5th in a TT at the end of a GT he had led all the way. He was 35s slower over 36km than a World TT champ, and 25s slower than Van Aert, and he beat Remy Cavagna. Roglic rode a damn good TT, that under any other circumstance would have been “job done.” Nobody could have known Pog would go thermonuclear on PdBF like that, and I say that as someone who before the TT last year was saying “this isn’t over yet, y’know, Tadej can ride a pretty good TT when he needs to...”

 

[BigCoward]

Ah yes, Pogacar rode the craziest ITT in the last 20 years cause Roglic was choking.

Rog was doing ok until his head went.
What was the justification for Sh1tting the bed at the Giro?

 

[topt]

What happened to Sep Kuss' excellent climbing legs?

I question this also; I mean every time he is without Roglic he looks worse; always the same attack and than fade

 

[Cannavaro]

"Donkey" wasn't as literal. Compared to guys you would expect to smash such climbs like MAL, Slovenians, S. A. Yates or Bernal he's a donkey. i know that with Ponomar he's a potential Ukrainian future like Honchar and Popo were once.

That Indurain record held so long because La Plagne is sadly not a popular climb and it seems in 2010s the times were generally a bit slower. Also i could swear that in 95 they ended at 1800. Maybe it was year later? I think i may confuse it with La Plagne's neighbor - Les Arcs. There you can end at ~1850m and ~2120m. Similary to how you can have La Plagne 1800, La Plagne 2000 like today, Belle Plagne and La Plagne Villages (up to 2120m).

In 1995 they finished indeed 1.5 km before the finish today (at around 1970 m) and yes they finished in Les Arcs only at 1718 m above see level in 1996.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He finished 5th in a TT at the end of a GT he had led all the way. He was 35s slower over 36km than a World TT champ, and 25s slower than Van Aert, and he beat Remy Cavagna. Roglic rode a damn good TT, that under any other circumstance would have been “job done.” Nobody could have known Pog would go thermonuclear on PdBF like that, and I say that as someone who before the TT last year was saying “this isn’t over yet, y’know, Tadej can ride a pretty good TT when he needs to...”

Beating Cavagna on PdBF isn't really an argument imho. Dumoulin being a former WC neither, unlike the fact that he is a climber/TT'er. All things considered, i think it's fair to state that Roglic underperformed and Pogacar overperformed. But while Roglic underperforming was still within the realm of what could be expected, that was not the case for Pogacar's performance.

 

[topt]

Rog was doing ok until his head went.
What was the justification for Sh1tting the bed at the Giro?

I am his biggest fan but I do think Rogla has problems with endurance, long stages or 3 week races at the end; I imagine it has to do something with his late start, he just doesnt have the KMs in legs

 

[topt]

They deserve favouritism but Ineos will have one of their strongest teams ever. Still probably won't be enough. Pogacar hasn't even matured yet and Roglic is at the peak of his career. Thomas and Porte past their best and Carapaz can be up and down although his Giro win was solid. Interesting to see Porte's late career surge but one week races have always been his strength and like Valverde he has won quite a few. Glad he got his podium last season but Ineos have the job ahead of them to win the Tour.

I will be surprised if something changes since last year; Ineos train droping themselves and than JV takes over; Ineos have a lot of quality but no top end

 

[roundabout]

"Donkey" wasn't as literal. Compared to guys you would expect to smash such climbs like MAL, Slovenians, S. A. Yates or Bernal he's a donkey. i know that with Ponomar he's a potential Ukrainian future like Honchar and Popo were once.

That Indurain record held so long because La Plagne is sadly not a popular climb and it seems in 2010s the times were generally a bit slower. Also i could swear that in 95 they ended at 1800. Maybe it was year later? I think i may confuse it with La Plagne's neighbor - Les Arcs. There you can end at ~1850m and ~2120m. Similary to how you can have La Plagne 1800, La Plagne 2000 like today, Belle Plagne and La Plagne Villages (up to 2120m).

83ème Tour de France 1995 - 9ème étape

www.memoire-du-cyclisme.eu

It was 1880 in 2002 Tour (at least officially)

 

[Leinster]

Beating Cavagna on PdBF isn't really an argument imho. Dumoulin being a former WC neither, unlike the fact that he is a climber/TT'er. All things considered, i think it's fair to state that Roglic underperformed and Pogacar overperformed. But while Roglic underperforming was still within the realm of what could be expected, that was not the case for Pogacar's performance.

They’re reasonable benchmarks, and Dumoulin’s ITT WC is especially fair given the route he won his title on, and the similarity to the Planche TT route. If Roglic underperformed, it was by small margins, and not the 59s margin by which Pogacar won the Tour.


Roglic’s 2 big GT “losses” have been down to miscalculation and bad tactics rather than an outright choke; he and Nibali ought to have been more alive to the threat of Carapaz, instead of just watching each other. And Jumbo should have been more focused on putting time into Pogacar, especially once it became clear Bernal was not a threat.

 

[BigCoward]

They’re reasonable benchmarks, and Dumoulin’s ITT WC is especially fair given the route he won his title on, and the similarity to the Planche TT route. If Roglic underperformed, it was by small margins, and not the 59s margin by which Pogacar won the Tour.


Roglic’s 2 big GT “losses” have been down to miscalculation and bad tactics rather than an outright choke; he and Nibali ought to have been more alive to the threat of Carapaz, instead of just watching each other. And Jumbo should have been more focused on putting time into Pogacar, especially once it became clear Bernal was not a threat.

Tbf F'ck up rather than choke is a better description of Roglics performance issues. However it doesn't change my point, he can't be considered a huge favourite when he keeps screwing up and he has only won 2 vueltas. He needs to bring it when it really matters.
I don't rate him anymore of a favourite based on previous grand tour performances than Carapaz or Thomas and well below Pogacar.