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Criterium International - St 1: Porto Vecchio Col de lÂ’Ospedale, 176km

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Mar 9, 2010
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6% is not steep enough for the mountain goats to get away from the motors. the gaps will be small. there are only a couple of steeper sections where a punchy attacking climber can gap someone like cadel, levi or armstrong.

cadel is on form and can power his way to a decent performance. armstrong should hold his own, he certainly won't lose big time.

berto can do some damage and may win. but i think this stage goes to someone who has a nasty sprint from a small group at the end of a longish climb.

i call samu or lulu.
 
Feb 14, 2010
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spanky wanderlust said:
6% is not steep enough for the mountain goats to get away from the motors. the gaps will be small. there are only a couple of steeper sections where a punchy attacking climber can gap someone like cadel, levi or armstrong.

cadel is on form and can power his way to a decent performance. armstrong should hold his own, he certainly won't lose big time.

berto can do some damage and may win. but i think this stage goes to someone who has a nasty sprint from a small group at the end of a longish climb.

i call samu or lulu.

Six percent for 14 kilometers after four other climbs is pretty decent for March. Who's Lulu? I'm not up on all the nicknames. Luisle is in Catalunya. I hope Cadel and Sammy are in a fighting spirit.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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spanky wanderlust said:
6% is not steep enough for the mountain goats to get away from the motors. the gaps will be small. there are only a couple of steeper sections where a punchy attacking climber can gap someone like cadel, levi or armstrong.

cadel is on form and can power his way to a decent performance. armstrong should hold his own, he certainly won't lose big time.

berto can do some damage and may win. but i think this stage goes to someone who has a nasty sprint from a small group at the end of a longish climb.

i call samu or lulu.

Starlists are your friend. ;)
http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MTk3OTI=
 
Jun 16, 2009
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What is Sammy Sanchez's form? I am half inclined to tip him for a close 2nd. The short tt will suit him. I'm not sure how he's climbing.

My undecided podium

1.Contador
2.Sanchez/Evans
3.Sanchez/Evans
 
Not a fan but it will be interesting to see how Soler goes. Dave Millar has been talking about how he has being training for this - he's not going to be at the top of the Ospedale with the leaders but could maybe get into the top 10 with the help of the short time trial on Sunday. Dan Martin's form will be interesting as well. Maybe Cofidis can continue their good form, Moncoutie is there this weekend, maybe el Fares could do well too?

Brice Feillu will be looking for a big performance too i'd have thought, especially with as it is an ASO race.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Frosty said:

True, not sure how SS & CE will go on longer climbs and especially it being a MTF.

I will tip Sanchez over Evans then.

Have some experts tips of the race:
Phil Liggett
1) Alberto Contador (ESP) Team Astana

2) Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team

3) Chris Horner (USA) Team RadioShack

Paul Sherwen
1) Alberto Contador (ESP) Team Astana

2) Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team

3) Samuel Sanchez (ESP) Euskaltel-Euskadi

Bob Roll
1) Alberto Contador (ESP) Team Astana

2) Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team

3) Tony Martin (GER) HTC-Columbia
 
May 13, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
Have some experts tips of the race:
Phil Liggett
1) Alberto Contador (ESP) Team Astana

2) Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team

3) Chris Horner (USA) Team RadioShack

Surprised to see Liggett pick Horner. I assume that means LA will be riding support? Personally, I'd like to see Cadel win it.

Btw, anyone know if RS has had any wins yet?

Babe
 
VeloBabe said:
Surprised to see Liggett pick Horner. I assume that means LA will be riding support? Personally, I'd like to see Cadel win it.

Btw, anyone know if RS has had any wins yet?

Babe

They picked up a stage win at Algarve. The kid's name escapes me at the moment.
 
auscyclefan94 said:
Roessler...

What about Tiago machado, publicus?:D

I have no idea. He flashed in the pan at Algarve, tried to animate the race at Paris-Nice with no success, so I have no idea what he's going to do at Criterium International. It will depend on Bruyneel and his tactical interest. Frankly, I would let him fight it out for the stage win if he has the form.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Mellow Velo said:
Liggett: Ever the fangrandad.
Those experts aren't exactly going out on a limb with those picks.
Picking armstrong to podium would be going out on the limb.;)

Publicus said:
I have no idea. He flashed in the pan at Algarve, tried to animate the race at Paris-Nice with no success, so I have no idea what he's going to do at Criterium International. It will depend on Bruyneel and his tactical interest. Frankly, I would let him fight it out for the stage win if he has the form.

What Rs will do is that they will ride for armstrong to win and if he does well then the team will say they were riding for LA and if LA falters the team will say that they were riding for Machado so it doesn't matter that much then because it is the armstrong show so machado will have the blame put on him for not peforming in the media. he will be RS's shield in the media for their failure.
 
Mar 9, 2010
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*G*K*S* said:

don't need to. i've got you to fact check all my posts! ;)

at least you didn't let that distract you from my main point. oh, wait? :rolleyes:

the gaps will be pretty small, by design, so that differences in the short time trial are meaningful. i only say this because some here were predicting some unreasonably large differences tomorrow. faves will be separated by seconds, not minutes. as others mentioned, the climb will be hard because of the hilly parcours. yes, there will be a selection, but the advantage of the punchy mountain goats will be somewhat neutralized. imho.

ac may well win, but he won't just ride away like PN.
 
Oct 27, 2009
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franciep10 said:
My prediction at about 5km to go Cadel will try to attack then AC will follow then go by him with Sammy Sanchez, then Sanchez will fade at 3.5km to go then AC proceeds to stomp the field. Cadel finishes about 4th 40 seconds down while lance comes in 34th about two minutes and 30 secs down.

i think you have a very precise prediction.havent you?

For me, Contador,Sanchez and Evans in this order.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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spanky wanderlust said:
6% is not steep enough for the mountain goats to get away from the motors. the gaps will be small. there are only a couple of steeper sections where a punchy attacking climber can gap someone like cadel, levi or armstrong.

cadel is on form and can power his way to a decent performance. armstrong should hold his own, he certainly won't lose big time.

berto can do some damage and may win. but i think this stage goes to someone who has a nasty sprint from a small group at the end of a longish climb.

i call samu or lulu.
id have to agree - the final mountain’s steepness is not sufficiently selective for berto to max out on his chief weapon - awesome vertical acceleration.

here’s how i think his strategic winning plan is set up.

if he is to win the classment, he needs enough time advantage in the 1st stage that can be defended in the short itt.

my guess it is 15-25 seconds, at most. so he will not attack from afar b/c 2-3 people (at this stage) can match his rate of climbing - but not his violent all-out 4 to 5k effort to the top. it can not be answered by anyone and will play ideally to his strength.

armstrong will climb better that a ‘fatty'. I estimate appr. 34-35 minutes for him and 33 min for contador on col de l’opspedale
 
Just a note on coverage, it's brief. Early start sure, 14-50CET and the net feeds should be up and running, but race scehedule for the finish is:
PORTO-VECCHIO (Col de l'Ospedale) 15:27 15:40 15:55

So, it will only be the Ospedale, unless France 2 go "Live delayed", which isn't unheard of.

Python: It's all about the course balance. Seconds in the short ITT balanced by seconds in the climb.
It won't stop a lot of riders losing a lot of time, but it will be hard to gain +30" over other fit climbers.......I would have thought.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
PROFILKMS.gif

Km 175.5 - PORTO-VECCHIO (Col de l'Ospedale) - 14.2 km climb to 6.2 %

Who will win?

Conti will have to go on the 2nd black part of the diagram if he is going to get a gap.
 
The latest from Armstrong on the race (via Velo News):

I need more race days,” Armstrong said. ”The stuff we’ve done, it’s been more sporadic. Australia (Tour Down Under) seems like last year and Murcia also seems like a long time ago. I need more race days, this weekend, next weekend in Belgium ….”

Read more: http://velonews.competitor.com/2010...down-criterium-prospects_109507#ixzz0jNSaGeDS

No *** Sherlock! Maybe that appearance fee and transcontinental flight to South Africa wasn't worth it.

EDIT: BTW, velonews automatically inserted that link (I only copied the text).
 
AC just grabbed a sprint point on the stage. BMC and Astana are controlling the peloton (two guys in the breakaway with a 7:20 advantage). Make that a 5:50 second advantage. Approaching the first bunny hop of a hill (Roccapina)