Dan Martin - "Now I know you can win clean"

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Oct 30, 2011
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Rip:30 said:
It's a good point about medical research, but in fact all academic science is extremely competitive and so the pressure to publish "novel" "ground breaking" results is very high. Research awards are granted based on past productivity in the US, Can, and EU...

Agree math physics engineering ect. probably have very different error rates (lower?).

I think the more repeatable a test is and isolatable the variables are, the lower the error results will be. Engineers do not have ethical considerations to take into account when they test a girder. The girder can also be isolated from all the concrete, desks and other girders that would complicate things.

The pressure to prove novel results is interesting - reminds me of a breakdown of the phrase "it is easier to deter than compel" I read recently. We say "deter" when someone probably wasn't going to do something and we want to make sure they don't. We say "compel" when something probably wasn't going to do something and we want to make sure that they do. With that in mind, of course one is easier, because you unconsciously define it to be easier.
 
Jun 10, 2010
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JV1973 said:
Anyhow, I've learned my lesson, don't release blood profiles that are "negiglble risk" as the forum has a treasure trove of self proclaimed experts that are at the ready to do their analysis, which will differ greatly from the AMPU.
That's not fair. We work with what we have. If the captain hasn't seen that many blood profiles, we certainly haven't seen more. We don't have enough data. The way to correct this is not to keep the data from us, but to release more data.

Show us the blood profiles of team leaders. Domestiques. Riders who go through an illness, or who suffer from saddle sores. Get other teams on board with this.

Educate us.
 
May 27, 2010
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hrotha said:
That's not fair. We work with what we have. If the captain hasn't seen that many blood profiles, we certainly haven't seen more. We don't have enough data. The way to correct this is not to keep the data from us, but to release more data.

Show us the blood profiles of team leaders. Domestiques. Riders who go through an illness, or who suffer from saddle sores. Get other teams on board with this.

Educate us.

This is an excellent point, both specifically and in general. It is a huge problem within many organizations. People think that by controlling useful data they somehow make themselves more important. The opposite is generally true.

...take the UCI for example and the recent bruhaha over some cortisone positives...

Those that hide data, no matter what their pursuit, ultimately do themselves a disservice.

Dave.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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Libertine Seguros said:
....I see no reason to suspect Dan Martin, either yesterday or otherwise, and he's certainly never had any performance that I've baulked at on his way to the top.

And there's also the "small" matter of Dan's genetics, his pedigree, his parents. A bit like Phinney.

"Unfortunately" for those not so gifted, genetic inheritance plays a BIG role in endurance sports among those training equally hard.

Allergies on a bike are big friggin deal for a racer. In the spring I don't breathe well at all on any hill, and I'm just a rec rider. Couldn't imagine what one does if racing.
 

martinvickers

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Oct 15, 2012
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Dear Wiggo said:
I have no problem with him talking his clean self up. I agree with your points.

I dislike him doing a Millar and taking the opportunity of the lime light to proclaim Sky - in isolation, and in particular Wiggins - are clean. Like they are the only 2 clean teams in the rest of the dirty, dirty peloton.

It would be better if he said the peloton is clean, that's why the clean guys can win.

But he can't say that. Because it's either not true, or he doesn't believe it's true.

So the clean guys are beating dirty, dirty dopers.

Which is where the logic of it all starts to unravel.

But to be fair, he didn't say Sky were clean.

He said Brad Wiggins was.

Presumably because he knows the guy from his time at Garmin/other past british links. It wasn't a comment on Sky, or 'clean teams'. It was specific to Wiggins. You may not like that because of how you feel about Wiggins. That's your problem, not his.

In other words, he's declaring what he has personal knowledge of; Himself first and foremost, his current team and team captain; and a former teammate that he personally knows.

No more, no less. No comment on any other team, including Sky - just on those people he knows. To try and twist otherwise says more about you than him.
 

martinvickers

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Oct 15, 2012
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Caruut said:
Yeah I heard that 95% of statistics are made up on the spot. Seriously, have you anything to substantiate this rather large claim? It's quite a serious allegation to say that over half of all science published is wrong.

It's called the scientific method, Caruut. Every theorem we have is, to some extent, a current best guess - and as such very likely to contain some inaccuracy.

Hell, kids still spend years learning the basics of Newtonian physics - just to later come back and find out that Newton was wrong. He was damn close, but he wasn't 100% right.

That's how science works. To not understand that is to not understand the way science works. It's not like mathematics; there's no verifiable and pure perfect answer.
 
Sep 29, 2012
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JV1973 said:
In context of his overall profile, 16 is unremarkable.

So release the whole profile. You have access to it. It's your fault context is unavailable.

JV1973 said:
Again, you have zero knowledge re this stuff, so it's ridiculous for you to analyze.

Neither do you, so it's equally ridiculous for you to defend.

JV1973 said:
Why did Dr. Mike stop posting? Because he realized he didn't quite have context either and wasn't able to properly analyze,

Your fault. Easily remedied, yet you chose not to.

JV1973 said:
as he hasn't seen many profiles (he's a great doc, just not a hematologist).

You allege to have seen lots of profiles. But I am no more an expert on women having seen a lot of them. You are not expert on hematology either. The only way you could explain the anomalies in this profile was by deflecting (talk to Francasca Rossi) or downright make believe (retics at 6pm went up 25% due to hypoxia from a 34 minute TT that finished at 4pm, or a MTF the day before).

JV1973 said:
Get an anti-doping expert in to look at this profile. A guy who's been doing it for years. If that guy says there's something remarkable, send me your bank info, and you'll win the bet. How's that?

Yeah funny that. You sent the data to Mike, instead of an anti-doping expert. Why is that? Previously Ashenden went through the data (2008 Boulder Report with Joe Lindsey). You didn't give him the full context either. Why did you send the data to Veloclinic? I'd like to hear your internal testing guy's analysis of the data, and he's already on staff, right? You know, the guy who is a hematologist and has seen lots of blood profiles and keeps a close eye on your team's profiles. The system you spend 400-500k / year on, claiming it should be paid to the BP program by all teams instead?

JV1973 said:
Not only was Ryder's blood data not flagged, it was put in the "negligible risk" category by the AMPU, which analyzes the data and came up with the "risk profiles" pre 2010 TdF, in which Ryder also measured low risk, with an Hb of 16 and retics in the +1 category.
Anyhow, I've learned my lesson, don't release blood profiles that are "negiglble risk" as the forum has a treasure trove of self proclaimed experts that are at the ready to do their analysis, which will differ greatly from the AMPU.

Ah yes the AMPU - the panel that Dr Ashenden resigned from. The panel created under the control of the Lausanne lab in Switzerland, headed up by Saugy, of 2001 Tour de Suisse LA sample fame and all-round UCI good guy.

Interesting that you banged on about chatting with all the team docs at the Giro, who (allegedly) confirmed pre-Giro Hgb values were high, but then weeks later you suggest it was Francesca Rossi who made the claim.

Now, months after releasing the profile of your GT-winning rider, all of a sudden you claim AMPU classify the profile as "negligible risk", apparently similar to a 2010 analysis of the same rider. Interesting you say +1 reitcs, as Ryder's average was over 1.5, and peaked out at a remarkable 1.93. That's almost +2.

The lesson you should learn is people are not always just going to swallow everything that comes out of your mouth unquestioningly. Though there are a few here. Even ones with scientific minds.

JV1973 said:
So, once again, you guys win. Bravo. Cycling: Everyone's doping. Especially Garmin.

Have at it.

You like your credibility, right?
 
Sep 29, 2012
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Catwhoorg said:
Hitch,

its not just the folks here.
Its trivial for a so called 'journalist' who wants to make a story to some data, and shop around until they find a so called "scientist" in the field who will say what they want usually for an appropriate fee.

They do it with all sorts of things, not just blood profiles.

Us back and forthing is relatively harmless. Someone in the mainstream media would be much less so.

Fantasy. Complete and utter fantasy. Show me one article where a blood profile has ever been analysed by a bought and paid for "scientist".

The opposite has proven to be true, however. Seen the latest LA / UCI debacle where they attacked Ashenden's credibility, only to have it revealed the dodgy values were not passed on to the panel?
 
Oct 23, 2012
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Armchaircyclist said:
"“I hope this inspires all the young guys out there to really believe it can be done clean. Obviously with Garmin we’ve had Ryder win the Giro last year and even with Brad (Wiggins) winning the Tour last year that, for me, made me believe that you can win clean.”

FWIW I read this as saying Ryder's Giro win made him believe you can win clean, despite Bradley's tour win. The wonders of written English I guess.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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hrotha said:
That's not fair. We work with what we have. If the captain hasn't seen that many blood profiles, we certainly haven't seen more. We don't have enough data. The way to correct this is not to keep the data from us, but to release more data.

Show us the blood profiles of team leaders. Domestiques. Riders who go through an illness, or who suffer from saddle sores. Get other teams on board with this.

Educate us.
its

'da Cap'n ;)

innit
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Dear Wiggo said:
downright make believe (retics at 6pm went up 25% due to hypoxia from a 34 minute TT that finished at 4pm, or a MTF the day before).


not

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Coy'lian (noun)
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Dear Wiggo said:
You like your credibility, right?

heheheh, nice one DW :D

we need a Rasmus Damsgaard for each team, then Dan Martin can safely espouse that he knows each team is winning clean too.

whatever winning clean means or is. chomksy might be able to assess linguistics of said weasel fraze
 
Jul 3, 2009
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Fearless Greg Lemond said:
Good point, but lets take a look at the last ten years of la Doyenne:

2012:
Maxim Iglinsky
Heralded by Vino for going to Tenerife, maybe the most ridiculous winner of la Doyenne all time.

If your starting point is that Dan Martin is clean it's impossible to be convinced Iglinskiy wasn't.

They are probably the only two on the podium for two decades, though.
 
Jul 10, 2010
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Orvieto said:
This is a bizarre thread. Martin is being castigated for answering questions about doping and promoting clean riding. What is this reverse-omerta? Do we not want riders speaking out to promote clean riding?

It's pretty usual nowadays for any winner of a cycling race to have his achievement questioned. That is the legacy that a generation of doped riders has left. Win a big race and your name will appear in the clinic. As fans we've earned the right to be sceptical. Riders who have won without cheating have earned the right to brag about it.

If it ever turns out that they lied, their hypocrisy only deepens their disgrace, but it should not stop clean winners from promoting clean riding.

armchairclimber said:
I guess that only time will tell. The anti-doping optimists amongst us will see Dan Martin's win as further evidence that clean riders can and do win against known dopers. The pessimists will just suspect Dan Martin of doping.


Orvieto, imo, you deserve to be quoted on this, many, many times. Got it in one, dude. And, yup, I have to agree with the armchair man, only time will tell.

However, I will allow the castigators and pessimists their place in the conversation. On occasion, rare, but on occasion, they turn out to be right. History tells us this now. It can be difficult determining WHEN they should be listened to, but I think I can listen a while longer . . .:)
 
Jun 14, 2010
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martinvickers said:
But to be fair, he didn't say Sky were clean.

He said Brad Wiggins was.

Presumably because he knows the guy from his time at Garmin/other past british links. It wasn't a comment on Sky, or 'clean teams'. It was specific to Wiggins. You may not like that because of how you feel about Wiggins. That's your problem, not his.

In other words, he's declaring what he has personal knowledge of; Himself first and foremost, his current team and team captain; and a former teammate that he personally knows.

No more, no less. No comment on any other team, including Sky - just on those people he knows. To try and twist otherwise says more about you than him.

Well martin, you are the one who always says you cant prove a negative. So how does Daniel know wiggins is clean?


I do trust both Garmin and Martin. But at the moment this "new clean generation" is very similar to the 10 "new clean generations" weve had before in that their attitude is exactly the same - doping is in the past, i prefer not to talk about it, young people are clean by definition.

with all the **** thats happened if people want to take the doping thing seriously, then they need to do what wiggins 07 did, be honest about it. Accept that you cant know if someone is clean. Accept that victory does bring with it suspicion.

One of the major lessons is you shouldnt declare people clean. Dont let youyr emotions get ahead of your judgement. Yeah i know its tempting when you like someone and you may even known them quite well, you think - **** it, i believe they are clean so ill go out and say it.

But thats exactly what went through the head of every rider, ds, journo, commentator etc who declared riders they liked clean. Exactly what went through the head of every fan who believed in these riders.

Im not talking about people who were in on it like Verbrugen and Ligget saying lance was clean, im talking about outsiders. Like Harmonn going on and on about how clean gilbert is the flagbearer for new clean cycling. Because he liked him. Or the dozens of muppets in the ozzie cycling press and beyond citing Evans as proof that cycling is clean. They know him, hes one of them, well must be clean.


And its curious that from Garmin you have several riders and staff making these trigger happy statements, Talansky, now Martin. Jv guaranteeing on twitter that the Tour down under would be 100% clean,
And of course most ridiculously millar who can guarantee the cleanliness of sky and even believes in pre ban contador.

Which is surprising cos i thought the whole philosophy of garmin or at least jv is that you cant eliminate doping all you can hope for is to limit it so that clean riders have a chance.

So how do they know all these riders are clean. limiting doping is not the same as eliminating it. If doping is limited - the aim, then it still exists as a variable to turn domestiques into contenders, to turn contenders into winners.

Seems to me like garmin, because of their own clean truimphs, are letting their emotions get ahead of their judgment all too often by interpreting these victories as a sign that everyone is clean.

It might have been harmless. If cycling had not been ripped apart by doping scandals for the last 10 years and if people hadnt sat exactly where they are sitting making the same comments about cyclists they liked.

The brutal truth of life and mankind is that the only person's cleanliness you can guarantee 100% is your own. If your really close with your teammates this may drop only to the high 90's for them, but still you dont know 100% because people are complex and you cant read their minds nor see what they do every minute of the year.

Once you get outside of your own team, even riders you know personally, then you cant really get above 80. Maybe a bit higher with someone like Moncoutie but those are very very rare cases and dont apply to TDF winners.

And if 2 decades of doping scandals should have taught those involved with the sport anything, its that you cant let optimism fill in gaps of knowledge. You cant possibly know what other people are and arent capable of. Actually **** cycling, one can learn that just by watching the news.
 
Jul 10, 2010
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blackcat said:
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Coy'lian (noun)

Hey! Blackcat - what happened to your semi-infinite ellipsis? Are you downing the dots now? Is the ee cummings inner you coming to the surface?

:D ;)
 
Mar 18, 2009
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hiero2 said:
Hey! Blackcat - what happened to your semi-infinite ellipsis? Are you downing the dots now? Is the ee cummings inner you coming to the surface?

:D ;)

All his dots are belong to ebandit.
 
Mar 25, 2013
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hrotha said:
That's not fair. We work with what we have. If the captain hasn't seen that many blood profiles, we certainly haven't seen more. We don't have enough data. The way to correct this is not to keep the data from us, but to release more data.

Show us the blood profiles of team leaders. Domestiques. Riders who go through an illness, or who suffer from saddle sores. Get other teams on board with this.

Educate us.

Anne Gripper said it takes different types of experts to get a full picture of a profile and it was something like 9 experts that they used when she was there. I don't how all this works but you may get a conflicting conclusion from one expert to the other and so it's better they get a more varied view to come to the right conclusion and analysis collectively.

Maybe JV could inform us more here about this.

If they were released to the public, all it takes is for one person in the field to say something of note and everyone would jump on it even if they were more on the other side who said it was of a normal pattern. It's a difficult one, I understand where you're coming from but you also have to understand the reluctance on the other hand when everything is taken into account.
 

martinvickers

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Oct 15, 2012
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The Hitch said:
Well martin, you are the one who always says you cant prove a negative. So how does Daniel know wiggins is clean?

He doesn't. and he didn't say he did, and neither did I.

He said he BELIEVED it.

I hope this inspires all the young guys out there to really believe it can be done clean. Obviously with Garmin we’ve had Ryder win the Giro last year and even with Brad (Wiggins) winning the Tour last year that, for me, made me believe that you can win clean.”

Now I know you can win clean.

Pretty clearly he's drawn a subtle distinction between what he knows/believes of other people, and the 'certainty' he can now feel since his own doping or non-doping habits are 00% within his own knowledge.


I do trust both Garmin and Martin. But at the moment this "new clean generation" is very similar to the 10 "new clean generations" weve had before in that their attitude is exactly the same - doping is in the past, i prefer not to talk about it, young people are clean by definition.

Yes, but, no, but. You can't say you trust, and then clearly demonstrate you don't.

with all the **** thats happened if people want to take the doping thing seriously, then they need to do what wiggins 07 did, be honest about it. Accept that you cant know if someone is clean. Accept that victory does bring with it suspicion.

Bull.

what wiggins did in 2007 was precious little to do with 'honesty', frankly. He was ****ed off because it f***d up his race, and he had a rant about it.

It might well have been a very honest rant, but honesty was not the point in ranting, ranting was. That's what Kimmage can't understand - the 2007 Bradley he liked so much never existed. Wiggins was never a crusader, he was a p!ssed off piece of collateral damage. Indeed, follow wiggins on and off the bike and you see a consistent and clear pattern, one which the twitterati fell right into - he rants at people who make his life harder.

Not noble. Just the truth.

One of the major lessons is you shouldnt declare people clean. Dont let youyr emotions get ahead of your judgement. Yeah i know its tempting when you like someone and you may even known them quite well, you think - **** it, i believe they are clean so ill go out and say it.

If Martin thinks someone i clean, then the honest thing for him to do if questioned is to say "I think he's clean", not to dip his hat at the Clinic's various paranoias.

He's allowed to disagree with you, you know.

But that's exactly what went through the head of every rider, ds, journo, commentator etc who declared riders they liked clean. Exactly what went through the head of every fan who believed in these riders.

And here's, in my view, the crux of the issue. The poor fan whose belief is shattered.

What comes across is the embarrassment, and the anger at the embarrassment. The feeling you were 'made a fool of' - that someone, somewhere, is laughing at your gulliblity and naivite. and by god, we'll never let that happen again; even if we have to assume the worst of every possible rider.

It's the emotional equivalent of taking the brace position.

For me, personally, I won't do that. If a rider cons me, it's not because I'm some kind of gullible chump, it's because he's a cheating b"stard. And the guilt lies on him, not me. And in refusing to take on guilt or embarrassment that doesn't belong to me, it frees me to enjo the sport, and believe in certain riders. and if i'm wrong to, fine. I don't live and die by it - it's not a comment on me, but on the rider.

(and while we are on the subject, is that not what all the fanboi nonsense is at the end of the day - group sneering at the supposed naivite of others, because we are so mature, and so knowing, and we'll never be fooled again, no sir...)

Im not talking about people who were in on it like Verbrugen and Ligget saying lance was clean, im talking about outsiders. Like Harmonn going on and on about how clean gilbert is the flagbearer for new clean cycling. Because he liked him. Or the dozens of muppets in the ozzie cycling press and beyond citing Evans as proof that cycling is clean. They know him, hes one of them, well must be clean.

I don't doubt it; nor do i doubt a considerable amount of bigotry and bias informs the 'other' side of the argument, at least for some. That's why I like evidence. Because empty accusations are just as tiresome as empty exculpations.


And its curious that from Garmin you have several riders and staff making these trigger happy statements, Talansky, now Martin. Jv guaranteeing on twitter that the Tour down under would be 100% clean,
And of course most ridiculously millar who can guarantee the cleanliness of sky and even believes in pre ban contador.

Millar probably has a relatively good read on sky, given his connections with them. Not 100% by any means. But a damn sight more than some in here. Why he backed Contador is beyond me, though.

As for Garmin lauding 'clean' cycling, how's that curious? It' their raison d'etre for pete's sake, of course they're gonna talk about it.



So how do they know all these riders are clean. limiting doping is not the same as eliminating it. If doping is limited - the aim, then it still exists as a variable to turn domestiques into contenders, to turn contenders into winners
.

See above - it's not about KNOWING, but about GROUNDS FOR BELIEVING. It's not the same thing.

JV clearly seems to believe doping has significantly diminished and that the results for his team, and the general climbing numbers support that. Do you think he's lying?
 
Oct 30, 2011
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martinvickers said:
It's called the scientific method, Caruut. Every theorem we have is, to some extent, a current best guess - and as such very likely to contain some inaccuracy.

Hell, kids still spend years learning the basics of Newtonian physics - just to later come back and find out that Newton was wrong. He was damn close, but he wasn't 100% right.

That's how science works. To not understand that is to not understand the way science works. It's not like mathematics; there's no verifiable and pure perfect answer.

Oh spare me.

Of course I know that there is inaccuracy. I've studied Newtonian physics and relativity. I was querying the really rather large figure that he'd produced, and he then provided an interesting article on the matter. All rather more enlightening than your post.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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hiero2 said:
Hey! Blackcat - what happened to your semi-infinite ellipsis? Are you downing the dots now? Is the ee cummings inner you coming to the surface?

:D ;)
just channeling some CaptainTBag from the tumblr blog (former blog) MGTHB (more glorious than hookers and blow)

does this suffice hiero2?
 
Jul 28, 2009
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hiero2 said:
Hey! Blackcat - what happened to your semi-infinite ellipsis? Are you downing the dots now? Is the ee cummings inner you coming to the surface?

:D ;)

blackcat.jpg
 
Jul 3, 2009
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blackcat said:
just channeling some CaptainTBag from the tumblr blog (former blog) MGTHB (more glorious than hookers and blow)

does this suffice hiero2?

Bring back Tanman ava.
 
Jul 10, 2010
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blackcat said:
just channeling some CaptainTBag from the tumblr blog (former blog) MGTHB (more glorious than hookers and blow)

does this suffice hiero2?

Yo, dude, we cool. :)

What with cat tongues, and other light-hearted replies, this has been a most entertaining bit of codswollop.
 
Jul 10, 2010
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Oh - and btw, I'm sad to see the Cap'n has decided to move on to greener pastures, as it were. Not sure if it was b-cuz they offered better blue moldy stuff over in those "greener pastures", or what. Jes sayin - sorry to see him movin on.

Cheers!