Does Andy Schleck lack the mental ability to ever win the TDF?

[thehog]

Kim Andersen said they were more tired than they looked...

http://velonews.competitor.com/2011...efends-teams-tactics-at-tour-de-france_184672

This worries me the most:

Alberto is not at his best, they are all equal. Maybe that’s normal after he does a hard Giro. Maybe he gets better in the Alps, we don’t know. I think it would be good if Alberto could attack, because we can go with him. We have a good gap with him,” Andersen said. “I don’t like to put a number on it – but we need more time on (Evans). He is the most dangerous one right now if nothing changes, but it will change. The Alps will decide everything in this Tour. Those big climbs will be hard for everyone.”

 

[LaFlorecita]

This worries me the most:

Alberto is not at his best, they are all equal. Maybe that’s normal after he does a hard Giro. Maybe he gets better in the Alps, we don’t know. I think it would be good if Alberto could attack, because we can go with him. We have a good gap with him,” Andersen said. “I don’t like to put a number on it – but we need more time on (Evans). He is the most dangerous one right now if nothing changes, but it will change. The Alps will decide everything in this Tour. Those big climbs will be hard for everyone.”

Why is that worrying you? What does Andersen know about Alberto's form?

 

[thehog]

Why is that worrying you? What does Andersen know about Alberto's form?

It’s like saying: “I hope Alberto can attack so we can follow and finish 2nd again”.

They should be racing their own race. Not hoping Contador can attack so they can follow and gain time on Evans. Its crazy.

What happens if Contador doesn’t attack? Or drops out? What then? You can’t base your winning strategy around another athlete.

 

[LaFlorecita]

It’s like saying: “I hope Alberto can attack so we can follow and finish 2nd again”.

They should be racing their own race. Not hoping Contador can attack so they can follow and gain time on Evans. Its crazy.

What happens if Contador doesn’t attack? Or drops out? What then? You can’t base your winning strategy around another athlete.

I thought you was worried about the fact that Andy could follow Alberto. Because that's what Andersen says. And as much as I'd like other guys getting second place, I'd rather see a Schleck finish second than first.

 

[No_Balls]

This worries me the most:

Alberto is not at his best, they are all equal. Maybe that’s normal after he does a hard Giro. Maybe he gets better in the Alps, we don’t know. I think it would be good if Alberto could attack, because we can go with him. We have a good gap with him,” Andersen said. “I don’t like to put a number on it – but we need more time on (Evans). He is the most dangerous one right now if nothing changes, but it will change. The Alps will decide everything in this Tour. Those big climbs will be hard for everyone.”

This strategy assumes that:

a) they bridge Evans so they have a healthy gap going into Grenoble TT

b) the gap between AC and (random) Schleck stays.

But building the strategy around another athlete is a risky one because:

a) No one, none the last AS, can predict any hiccups like for example with your chain.

b) Come Grenoble AS might, just might, do a horrible TT, crash, puncture and other un-predictable events. It is a risky tactic and a high gambling here. Given his TT-ability he can´t afford any luxury-trip.

Another relevant question: IF AS is tired how can they be so sure of following AC if he gets back to old ways? And if they can for a moment, are there any back-up plans if AS gets cooked?

This "strategy" raises some eyebrows for sure. I am beginning to think that Leopard-Trek have no clue about winning a Grand Tour starting with the Schlecks. So now they are going into defensive mode and see what the others are doing and how they can benefit from that.

 

[Angliru]

simply andy now has not the form of TdF 2010.

The question if that is the case, is why doesn't he? This has to be the primary goal of his season so unless he has some injury/illness that has not been disclosed to the press one has to ask why, with his rival at his most vulnerable (and this was known immediately at the start of Giro-Contador doing the Giro doesn't give anyone an advantage but Andy) would he show up at less than his best.

 

[Angliru]

By year's end, Andy and Bertie might be even on TDF victories. Even so, Andy has always reminded me of the other Bertie.

What kind of math has made you come to that conclusion????

 

[Jeanne]

This worries me the most:

Alberto is not at his best, they are all equal. Maybe that’s normal after he does a hard Giro. Maybe he gets better in the Alps, we don’t know. I think it would be good if Alberto could attack, because we can go with him. We have a good gap with him,” Andersen said. “I don’t like to put a number on it – but we need more time on (Evans). He is the most dangerous one right now if nothing changes, but it will change. The Alps will decide everything in this Tour. Those big climbs will be hard for everyone.”

how good for them that Alberto HAS to attack if he wants to win.

 

[LaFlorecita]

What kind of math has made you come to that conclusion????

A Alberto wins this years Tour, Andy comes second, 4-0, Alberto's found guilty by CAS, gets 2010 and 2011 win taken away, both are handed to Andy
2-2.

or

B Andy wins this years Tour, 3-1, Alberto's found guilty, 2010 win taken away, handed over to Andy, 2-2.

Edit: Whoops, almost forgot: Do the math!

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I thought you was worried about the fact that Andy could follow Alberto. Because that's what Andersen says. And as much as I'd like other guys getting second place, I'd rather see a Schleck finish second than first.

it's stupid tactic because andy doesn't have enough time on contador the final itt for sure

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I wouldn't question Andy's mental toughness yet. He was in position to win last year and suffered some bad luck. This year, I suspect he's just testing the waters, dipping his foot before diving right in. If he doesn't capitalize on an obviously subpar AC, I would question his mental toughness, but not just yet; they haven't even hit the Alps.

I don't think it will be easy to get rid of Evans though.

 

[Angliru]

that would be awesome. I think tommy V could follow Evans

It would be great but I don't think Voeckler can maintain this high level of climbing he's likely to lose 2+ minutes to Evans in the ITT, so what time he has on Evans at the present isn't enough.

 

[fatandfast]

he rides a little negative, always marking and taking up the counters but maybe conservative is ok. I would have liked him to really attack more but I can watch Gilbert for that.

 

[Angliru]

Can I interject here? You are all crazy. Andy looked in absolute top form on this stage. I believe him when he said it just wasn't steep or hard enough to put any kind of wound into Evans, Contador, Basso, or Voeckler. When he came across that line at the top, he looked like he could've ridden another 20k up that grade (with ease). Everyone else in GC looked like they had been through the ringer. Andy simply couldn't drop anybody because they are all top class and the climb wasn't steep enough. Just you wait until the end of this week. He will win this tour... by minutes.

Exactly how steep does he need it to be? Wasn't it earlier in the Tour that a particular stage with a steep finish caused Andy to lose time and after this stage he spoke of how this particular finish he didn't like? The same applies to the stage in last year's Tour won by Purito where Contador gained time on Andy. I just don't get this "excuse" for not successfully carrying out one's strategy, especially when all this stage info is fully available to all.

 

[VeloCity]

Andy just seems to lack confidence in his abilities. When AC attacks, it's for real - he fully commits himself to the attack, and if it doesn't work, he bides his time and then goes again (when he's on top form, I should add). Andy's attacks always look promising at the start but then he kind of waffles, like he's never quite sure if it's the right time or place to go full out.

It's frustrating to watch - I like Andy, but man, sometimes you want to yell at him to stop looking around and just go for it, consequences be damned.

Having said that, I still don't think he's in tip-top form.

 

[Carols]

Maybe it's just me, but the way I see it F&A haven't been able to put away AC despite the Giro and the bad knee. Geez I would love to see that fluid, effcient, seemingly effortless pedaling style again! On the road Frank has put 35 secs into him and Andy 2, despite AC riding lame (for folks that understand what a lame horse looks like!)

Now they want to use him to drop their competition for them? What *** and what dreadful tatics. I hope it all backfires and Cadel who has Won a stage, Been there every time it counted and ridden incredibly consistently makes the grade. Plus I hope AC makes the podium and if a Schleck does it's Frank. He at least rides all year to win races, unlike Andy......

PFFFTTT!!!

 

[thehog]

This "strategy" raises some eyebrows for sure. I am beginning to think that Leopard-Trek have no clue about winning a Grand Tour starting with the Schlecks. So now they are going into defensive mode and see what the others are doing and how they can benefit from that.

It’s a little mental. I agree with you. They have no idea. Namely you should have a fair idea what your game plan is. Yes you have to know your opposition but basing your entire strategy around what you hope the other riders will do and then actually verbalising is ludicrous. What happens if Alberto does attack and Evans follows as well – what then? What happens if Contador is indeed cooked and can’t attack or a gain sizeable margin? What then.

There is only one way. They have to sacrifice Frank on the lower slopes of the final climb. Frank has to hit it so hard that everyone is on the limit then Andy has to go and not look back. Even if Evans follows keep going. He may break. But that won’t happen. Andy wants Alberto to choose for him and Frank. He wants Alberto to go hard so Frank is dropped. He’s not able to do that himself. Every other rider can see it. They will just follow.

 

[Angliru]

Well , I was trying to hearken back to Frank's '06 ride, but yeah, that works too!

At least they can use '08 as "How NOT to win the Tour de France"

Maybe that's why Sastre is so upset because the prevailing attitude among the Schleck fans and the Schlecks is that "they" didn't win the Tour in 2008 when their teammate and thus their team won the Tour.

The "how NOT to" is for Frank to work on his time trial skills and Andy to FOCUS and keep his head in the race to avoid forgetting to fuel up.

 

[Angliru]

I find it so rich that armchair pro cyclists here can race the TdF better than someone who has ridden something like 6 grand tours and is in contention for the podium of this years TdF!! How is it that you guys know better than Andy, how Andy should ride his bike??

Cus we all stayed at Holiday Inn last night.

 

[Shardi]

Fränk has to retire before his chances could be proven zero.

Atm there aint much hope, but it could change if he is left alone.

 

[Angliru]

Great post!

Some interesting thoughts in this thread.

Andy doesn't seem unintelligent...but there are significant questions re: his (and Frank, LT et al) strategic planning and execution! And bad mouthing your opponents on their attacking (strategic planning/execution) that's ironic! If it wasn't steep enough for Andy to do other than he did...why on Earth would his opponents do otherwise!

As per previous posters:

. keep your mouth shut and your powder dry
. likely the "others" are conserving energy for the "heavy" stages to come
. I agree that Andy (and to lesser extent Frank and LT) are under incredible pressure to succeed... and this burden may be intolerable...with Andy et al unable to cope
. with the TdF tail end heavy; attacking for the most part will be reserved for the last few selections/when feeling absolutely 100%...for fear of cracking/bad day.

ps while watching Andy I thought...Andy why don't you attack for 100m or so, then hard tempo for a while???

Why would his opponents attack when they're being tag-teamed by the Bros. Grimm, especially Evans who only needs to stick to their wheels and dust them in the ITT? Voeckler's just happy to be there so him attacking is really not a hope based in any rational thinking person's reality. Contador was and has been hanging on for dear life trying to stem the tide until his knee is better. To whine that your opponents won't attack when you keep attacking your opponents is as baffling as I've heard in a while. Translated what they really mean when they say this is "Our attacks are so anemic our opponents are laughing under their breaths at us. We're superior climbers why can't our strategy work? We can't even drop Tommie Voeckler! What is wrong with us???"

 

[No_Balls]

There is only one way. They have to sacrifice Frank on the lower slopes of the final climb. Frank has to hit it so hard that everyone is on the limit then Andy has to go and not look back. Even if Evans follows keep going. He may break. But that won’t happen. Andy wants Alberto to choose for him and Frank. He wants Alberto to go hard so Frank is dropped. He’s not able to do that himself. Every other rider can see it. They will just follow.

Looks like they need some advice from Alberto himself (or for that matter, this board):

“Every day that passes, people wonder which card the Schleck brothers will play,” Contador added. “If they wait for Paris, it’ll be too late. They know which one is the strongest. One has to sacrifice himself for the other one.”

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-confident-to-be-better-in-the-alps-than-the-pyrenees

You are basically right. Kim Andersen says it a bit diplomatic but a better Alberto would trouble Frank, which gives Andy Carthe Blanché to focus on the race instead of Frank.

 

[Angliru]

Fränk was able to drop them though.

Didn't they finish in the same time for the most part with no more than seconds separating some? Dropping in my book is defined by losing more than a few seconds.

 

[Angliru]

A Alberto wins this years Tour, Andy comes second, 4-0, Alberto's found guilty by CAS, gets 2010 and 2011 win taken away, both are handed to Andy
2-2.

or

B Andy wins this years Tour, 3-1, Alberto's found guilty, 2010 win taken away, handed over to Andy, 2-2.

Edit: Whoops, almost forgot: Do the math!

I'm talking grand tours, not just the Tour.

Contador (4):
2007 Tour
2008 Giro and Vuelta
2009 Tour

Andy(2*):
2010 Tour
*2011 Tour (not a given if he can't shake Evans and he has yet to show he can)

Andy still has a whole lot of catching up to do.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Didn't they finish in the same time for the most part with no more than seconds separating some? Dropping in my book is defined by losing more than a few seconds.

Ah, you meant Plateau de Beille. You said Luz-Ardiden. If you meant Plateau de Beille, you're right. On Luz-Ardiden Fränk gained 30-something seconds, Andy about 15 seconds on Voeckler.