I live in Italy, so, Basso's case hase particularly interested me, particularly in regards (as many of you might know) to his involvment in OP.
Now I have to say, despite his trying to project a "wholesome," "nice-guy" persona given his involvment with Fuentes to a rather nauseating degree at times, because hypocritical (though who isn't) and propagandistic; I have nevertheless always found him to be at least reserved and good natured. And for this reason I have continued to wish him well in his comeback, also given that who in this sport is on "bread and water" alone anyway.
In Basso's case, and in my own admitted hypocrisy (because not in Armstrong's, because he is neither reserved nor good natured, or, now, Valverde's, because in my book he should serve a universal 2 year ban), my view in judging him has been "let he who has not sinned, cast the first stone." Which just goes to show that I desperartely need in contemporary cycling some(one) reason to watch a grand tour, given that I agree with many that they're all, more or less, engaged in the same illicet practices.
Well then, Ivan's results of late in the first place have been disappointing and, in the second, have not surprised.
Was he doped in 2006? There's no doubt in my mind, just as he was in the previous several years when he was working his way up to the podium at the Tour and battling King Armstrong punch for punch in the mountains during the race.
Is he still doped today? I have know doubts in this regard either.
So why the aparent considerable drop in performance? I think, here, several factors need to be considered:
1.) Just prior to his being prohibited from starting the 06 Tour, Ivan was riding the crest of a performance wave, which had seen him make steady improvements over the past 5 years to the point where he was arguably poised to be the world's top stage racer post Armstrong. The moment he was not allowed to start the Tour, that trend was irrevocably arrested and, pretty much, destroyed. An athlete simply doesn't bounce back, under such circumstances (that is a massive injury, though an ultimately recoverable one, would have been better mentally), and take up where that inertia had left him off at the moment of his disgrace.
2.) While Ivan was serving his ban, certain known, but also unknown quantities, with huge talent began to enter a career phase that was takening them upon that same wave from which Basso had so abruptly been cast down. And these were the now seasoned and developed guys he would have to face upon his return to the highest level of the sport. Thus men like Menchov, Sastre, Pellizzoti, the same Di Luca (unfortunately), not to mention a Riccò had he not been equally banned, Evans, and, of course, the new darling of this sport, Alberto Contador. So not only would Ivan have had to be at least at the top of his game (that is 2006 level), but perhaps even better to be able to beat that lot. Again under the circumstances of his exclusion and return, I highly doubt that was possible or even realistic.
3.) I wonder if perhaps there was also pressure from the powers that be in cycling to make sure that Ivan would not come back and win a major Tour for the negative immage this would give the sport. I mean, how happy would the Giro and Vuelta organizers have been (not to mention the Tour which dealt with the issue by simply preventing him from participating), had an ex-OP condemned rider come back from his ban and win their races? How credible would such a win have been for the public?
Thus, I conclude, that Ivan has had to probably take a most cautious approach to his "preparation" and, in conjunction with the difficulties (both mental and physical) someone in his postion has had to overcome, for these reasons his performances have not enthused.
Post Scriptum: Ivan's case with OP evidences just how the current situation in the sport is simply intollerable. Not because he had to serve his time off, which was just, but because he has been sacrificed whereas others with identical culpability have been able to persue their dreams as if nothing had ever taken place.
Because Ivan seems to me to be rather nice (despite his unsavory sugar coating it at times), as also Contador has made public claims about for instance, makes his situation at least to me more striking in the sometimes cruelty of fate.