Dumoulin.

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Re: Re:

Rollthedice said:
Cookster15 said:
Has anyone done quick power estimations for Dumoulin using either Aru or Purito as the benchmark? What is the power estimate for Aru (61.5Kg) and Purito (57Kg) on yesterday's 11% MTF and what power would Dumoulin (70Kg) need to be making to keep up? Then we start to draw a clearer picture without all the conjecture.

For example at 5.5W/Kg Aru is making 341 Watts. Dumoulin would need to make 384 watts to keep up. Based upon the fatigue of the riders this Vuelta and the extremely hard stage yesterday and in Andorra I think a figure of 5.5W/Kg is more realistic than the usual estimations of 6.0W+/Kg.

I have used Wikipedia weights for each rider plus have no idea if these power numbers are even close but once we agree on the numbers it makes the picture of Dumoulin doping or not much clearer.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN-BPV_UsAA9Utf.jpg
Thanks. 380Watts seems feasible no? Not far off what I estimated.
 
Re: Re:

Cookster15 said:
Rollthedice said:
Cookster15 said:
Has anyone done quick power estimations for Dumoulin using either Aru or Purito as the benchmark? What is the power estimate for Aru (61.5Kg) and Purito (57Kg) on yesterday's 11% MTF and what power would Dumoulin (70Kg) need to be making to keep up? Then we start to draw a clearer picture without all the conjecture.

For example at 5.5W/Kg Aru is making 341 Watts. Dumoulin would need to make 384 watts to keep up. Based upon the fatigue of the riders this Vuelta and the extremely hard stage yesterday and in Andorra I think a figure of 5.5W/Kg is more realistic than the usual estimations of 6.0W+/Kg.

I have used Wikipedia weights for each rider plus have no idea if these power numbers are even close but once we agree on the numbers it makes the picture of Dumoulin doping or not much clearer.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN-BPV_UsAA9Utf.jpg
Thanks. 380Watts seems feasible no? Not far off what I estimated.
I think he would have gone much harder than that. Moser (64kg ish) did 379w on Alba. Dombrowski (68kg) did 376w, Martijn Keizer (72kg) did 423w.

It's possible some of them climbed it faster than Dumoulin, but pretty unlikely. So, at 70kg he probably did significantly more than 400w. That's certainly not impossible for a 25 minute climb (5.7+ w/kg). But for a climb that wasn't a steady gradient, so had anaerobic sections then recovery, coming on the third consecutive day in the mountains and immediately after the Cobertoria, it is an absolutely incredible effort for a 'non-climber'.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Cookster15 said:
Rollthedice said:
Cookster15 said:
Has anyone done quick power estimations for Dumoulin using either Aru or Purito as the benchmark? What is the power estimate for Aru (61.5Kg) and Purito (57Kg) on yesterday's 11% MTF and what power would Dumoulin (70Kg) need to be making to keep up? Then we start to draw a clearer picture without all the conjecture.

For example at 5.5W/Kg Aru is making 341 Watts. Dumoulin would need to make 384 watts to keep up. Based upon the fatigue of the riders this Vuelta and the extremely hard stage yesterday and in Andorra I think a figure of 5.5W/Kg is more realistic than the usual estimations of 6.0W+/Kg.

I have used Wikipedia weights for each rider plus have no idea if these power numbers are even close but once we agree on the numbers it makes the picture of Dumoulin doping or not much clearer.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN-BPV_UsAA9Utf.jpg
Thanks. 380Watts seems feasible no? Not far off what I estimated.
I think he would have gone much harder than that. Moser (64kg ish) did 379w on Alba. Dombrowski (68kg) did 376w, Martijn Keizer (72kg) did 423w.

It's possible some of them climbed it faster than Dumoulin, but pretty unlikely. So, at 70kg he probably did significantly more than 400w. That's certainly not impossible for a 25 minute climb (5.7+ w/kg). But for a climb that wasn't a steady gradient, so had anaerobic sections then recovery, coming on the third consecutive day in the mountains and immediately after the Cobertoria, it is an absolutely incredible effort for a 'non-climber'.
Okay thanks yes I agree those numbers are high if accurate. At least we are getting some sensible discussion now.
 
Re: Re:

Cookster15 said:
DFA123 said:
Cookster15 said:
Rollthedice said:
Cookster15 said:
Has anyone done quick power estimations for Dumoulin using either Aru or Purito as the benchmark? What is the power estimate for Aru (61.5Kg) and Purito (57Kg) on yesterday's 11% MTF and what power would Dumoulin (70Kg) need to be making to keep up? Then we start to draw a clearer picture without all the conjecture.

For example at 5.5W/Kg Aru is making 341 Watts. Dumoulin would need to make 384 watts to keep up. Based upon the fatigue of the riders this Vuelta and the extremely hard stage yesterday and in Andorra I think a figure of 5.5W/Kg is more realistic than the usual estimations of 6.0W+/Kg.

I have used Wikipedia weights for each rider plus have no idea if these power numbers are even close but once we agree on the numbers it makes the picture of Dumoulin doping or not much clearer.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN-BPV_UsAA9Utf.jpg
Thanks. 380Watts seems feasible no? Not far off what I estimated.
I think he would have gone much harder than that. Moser (64kg ish) did 379w on Alba. Dombrowski (68kg) did 376w, Martijn Keizer (72kg) did 423w.

It's possible some of them climbed it faster than Dumoulin, but pretty unlikely. So, at 70kg he probably did significantly more than 400w. That's certainly not impossible for a 25 minute climb (5.7+ w/kg). But for a climb that wasn't a steady gradient, so had anaerobic sections then recovery, coming on the third consecutive day in the mountains and immediately after the Cobertoria, it is an absolutely incredible effort for a 'non-climber'.
Okay thanks yes I agree those numbers are high if accurate. At least we are getting some sensible discussion now.
The figures are from Strava: https://www.strava.com/segments/2623407?filter=overall

There's a bunch of other riders on there, but you have to log in to see them all; the ones with the lightning symbol are readings taken from a power meter, the others are just estimates. I guess the usual caveats apply about calibration etc..

Incidentally, Moser did 368w on the Cobertoria (32 mins) and was only descending for about 10 mins before starting the climb to Alba. So it was nearly an hour at an average of 372w (5.8 w/kg), with just a ten minute break in the middle. And he still lost nearly 2 minutes to Schleck!
 
Sep 9, 2015
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Dumoulin's performance is not out of this world. He manages to push higher wattage on the steeper sections and manages 5.3/5.5 w/kg for a 30 to 40 minute climb.

Somehow, the level of the competition is not very high. A MTF where Aru manages 5.8 for 25 minutes is lower than in this year's Giro or Tour. That surprises me. Obviously, Quintana is not as good as in July and the same is valid for Valverde. Yet, Aru disappoints a bit in that respect.

In my view, this is part of the reason why a (thus far) non GC guy suddenly battles for overall victory.

However, the competition may be lower than in the Tour or Giro, TD is still doing things that he hasn't shown to be capable of. And I don't mean the MTF power output. He does the same watts as he does in a TT and so the W/KG makes sense in that respect. My biggest surprise is that he can do it EVERY day on EVERY mountain. On Monday, he had to do this power output on the second-to-last climb. Okay, fair enough. But then he could do it again on the final climb, losing only a handful of seconds. On Wednesday he was distanced on the descent which lead to a stressful run-up to the final climb and still he could do 5.4 w/kg.

Somehow his fatigue in a stage is lower than before this Vuelta and his recovery is excellent.

Possible, maybe, but it would be naive not to doubt this performance.

Being able to do the watts is one thing, we know he can do that. But doing it after 5 hours on the bike, day after day in a GC... that's quite something. Martin/Cancellara can do these watts as well, power up a mountain with this watt/kg. No problem there. But I've never seen them do that in a stage after 5 hours, let alone day after day.

The only examples of that are Wiggins and Indurain. We know for a fact how Indurain go to that performance and Wiggins... well.. not for a fact maybe but pretty close.
 
Aug 12, 2015
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The guy is very fast today as expected. Almost a minute on Aru at the first checkpoint, more on Rodriguez and Majka.
 
Jul 21, 2012
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Dumoulin is cleans. He only puts out 5,99w/kg and uses his TT skills to hang on in the mountains. It's expected he would put 2-3 minutes into everyone today because of his track background. It's also a weak field and everyone missed their peaks.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Re:

the sceptic said:
Dumoulin is cleans. He only puts out 5,99w/kg and uses his TT skills to hang on in the mountains. It's expected he would put 2-3 minutes into everyone today because of his track background. It's also a weak field and everyone missed their peaks.
Very weak field :D
 
Jul 21, 2012
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Re: Re:

Miburo said:
the sceptic said:
Dumoulin is cleans. He only puts out 5,99w/kg and uses his TT skills to hang on in the mountains. It's expected he would put 2-3 minutes into everyone today because of his track background. It's also a weak field and everyone missed their peaks.
Very weak field :D
can't wait for this thread to reach 50000 pages as everyone rushes in to defend Wiggins 2.0
 
Re:

BigMac said:
Just don't expect people who defended him after his performances in the mountains to jump on him because of a TT.
So he gained all this climbing ability but didn't lose any of his TT ability? Hopefully some of those defending him will see through it, while others need more time

LMAO 46 mins
 
Jun 27, 2013
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His climbing, definitely suspicious.
Today's time trial? Not in the slightest. A minute on Bodnar is about par.

But back to that climbing...
 
Re:

GuyIncognito said:
His climbing, definitely suspicious.
Today's time trial? Not in the slightest. A minute on Bodnar is about par.

But back to that climbing...
If he had gained this climbing ability but was suddenly a lot worse in today's TT (just looked bulky), there would be a chance that I might have believed it, but now he's just put the nail in the coffin
 
Jul 21, 2012
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Re:

Benotti69 said:
Dumoulin didn't come to this Vuelta as team leader never mind GC hopeful..........
neither did Froome, Cobo and Horner but we know they were clean so don't judge him yet.
 
Jun 27, 2013
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Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
GuyIncognito said:
His climbing, definitely suspicious.
Today's time trial? Not in the slightest. A minute on Bodnar is about par.

But back to that climbing...
Gaining climbing ability while not losing a part of your TT skill is very suspicious
No it isn't. I have an army of Wiggins fans who will tell you so!
Would you like me to let them out of their cave?
 
Re: Re:

the sceptic said:
Miburo said:
the sceptic said:
Dumoulin is cleans. He only puts out 5,99w/kg and uses his TT skills to hang on in the mountains. It's expected he would put 2-3 minutes into everyone today because of his track background. It's also a weak field and everyone missed their peaks.
Very weak field :D
can't wait for this thread to reach 50000 pages as everyone rushes in to defend Wiggins 2.0
Nowhere near as dodgy as wiggins.

Did it at 24, and doesn't have the sort of ridiculous performances BW did.
 
Aug 12, 2015
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Miguel Infusion he is. The remains of his yesterday bloodbag must've went to the Movistar duo, at least Valverde's after-finish words mirror Tom's recent interviews: "I surprised myself today..."
 
do you realize how much power it does take to win one minute over the rest of the field in TT? phew.
1,85 cm, 69 kgs.. and outclimbing mountain goats... he should rather win MSM, PR and RVV two years in a row, that would look less suspicious.
 

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