Dumoulin.

[Supimilian]

No, it was definitely not a harder than average Tour de Suisse route this year.

I respectfully disagree. It was undoubtedly harder than '09 at least, that we can all agree.
On the Rettenbachferner climb he beat the likes of Majka, Chaves, Barguil and Gesink among others.
One of the absolute hardest climbs in cycling. Hardly a huge leap to this vuelta performance.

 

[gmedina]

No, it was definitely not a harder than average Tour de Suisse route this year.

I respectfully disagree. It was undoubtedly harder than '09 at least, that we can all agree.
On the Rettenbachferner climb he beat the likes of Majka, Chaves, Barguil and Gesink among others.
One of the absolute hardest climbs in cycling. Hardly a huge leap to this vuelta performance.

That is hardly an argument. In that climb he was 1:37 behind Pinot, and about 1 minute behind Pozzo (coming off GIro d' Italia). He beat Majka, Barguil, Gesink that probably were fine tuning for TdF and/or Chavez coming off the Giro. So, let this sink in: 1:37 behind Pinot. Now, in my book, I think Aru is better cyclist than Pinot, and the fact that Aru was not able to drop Dumolin till the 20th stage of a GT just raises a lot of questions.

Side note, G. Thomas beat those guys in TdS as well, and went to the TdF flying in the mountains. That was even a more surprising transformation, and everyone went ape *** with good reason. It seems that we will witnessed more transformations like this...tt/climber specialist...because you know, the tt specialist know how manage their efforts better than climbers /s

 

[WillemS]

Well, I think that for Dutchies, the discontinuity in Dumoulin's performance is harder to perceive as most Dutch media already "predicted" that Dumoulin would develop into a GC rider.

For instance, in a 2013 (!) article by the Dutch National Broadcasting Foundation (NOS), influential Dutch cycling reporter Mart Smeets already described him as a future Tour de France GC contender. Iwan Spekenbring, manager of Dumoulin's team Argos-Shimano at the time, reacted to that by saying that "he [Dumoulin] has a profile that fits the TdF". Dumoulin's reaction at the time was "I'm not a GC rider for a three week tour. I'm not the greatest climber in the high mountains.". However, he was not fully conclusive, saying that "He would let himself be surprised by him".

Source: http://nos.nl/artikel/589422-2013-en-de-doorbraak-van-dumoulin.html

To add to that, Brailsford once stated during a press conference in 2014 that he was convinced that Tom Dumoulin was a great talent and that Team Sky had what it would take to develop him into a potential winner of a GT.

Source: http://www.wielerupdate.nl/wielernieuws/29255/team-sky-gecharmeerd-van-groot-talent-dumoulin/

If you search for terms like "Tom Dumoulin ronderenner" including only articles prior to this Vuelta, then you'll find a lot of Dutch articles predicting a great GC future for Dumoulin, even as early as 2013.

So, for the casual Dutch cycling fan, his performance during this Vuelta does not come as a total surprise, not in the least, as the Dutch media have been speculating about him being a potential GC rider in GTs for years. That there is no actual performance pattern leading up his current Vuelta performance is irrelevant to them, as they know he had the potential due to all the speculative articles in Dutch media.

 

[Supimilian]

Now, in my book, I think Aru is better cyclist than Pinot, and the fact that Aru was not able to drop Dumolin more than 5 times including the 20th stage of a GT just raises a lot of questions.

Fixed.

The Rettenbachferner climb is very ill suited for a guy with Dumoulins skill set and build, so beating those riders there will never be a trivial result for him in my view.

 

[Benotti69]

Re: Re:

.have only noticed dumoulin's time trialling the last 2years and spartacus having won tour de suisse just naturally assumed that if dumoulin had tour de suisse winning abilities then assumed i would have noticed that.

It was an easy tailor made route when he won suisse. He was lighter that year I think because of targeting the worlds at home. This year was a harder than average TdS course and Tom nearly won.

Dumoulin was not even considered by his own team to be a top 10 placer, never mind anyone who follows the sport closely and people think he only 'rode well'!!

The guy nearly won it!

It was a breakout performance, sure.
Was it beyond what is considered a 'human' performance? No. By no means was his vuelta particularly suspect seen in isolation. No flashes of superhuman ability at all.
Was it a huge improvement (think Froome) from usual level? At times, but as a whole within what one could realistically see from a rising star.
And yes, he has been mentioned as a rider that could be one of the future faces of the sport, even before this.
He has been remarkably consistent and strong with his placings in general these last few years as a young rider at this level.

If you want to crucify him on the basis that all top riders are dopers that's not an uninformed view considering the history. But to suggest this is anything outrageous or particularly worthy of scrutiny compared to many, many other performances this year is somewhat funny.

Not too many get to reach the extreme's of 'human' performance naturally.

Dumoulin at the start of La Vuelta was a dom with very good TT ability. He was there as part of the train for Degekolb and if still in shape be the TT stage contender. No more.

I repeat, he nearly won it!

I have not nailed him to a cross. This is pro cycling.

TTers dont become climbers overnight without 'assistance'. That is worthy of scrutiny. This guy outclimbed many of the peloton's goats on days. Not seen Canc do that or Tony Martin. Wiggins did it and it was obvious with PEDs. So "nothing worthy of scrutiny" is wrong. There is a lot worth looking at and wondering?????

Can you list the many many other performances being ignored?

 

[Supimilian]

You smoothly avoid his performance at the TdS....
He is not the same rider type as Martin and Cancellara. You know this. They are both significantly heavier and TD is better for more hilly TTs(Pais Vasco this year).
Somehow the fact that this guy has shown huge engine (and even promising climbing) in the recent and less recent past counts for nothing? Progression count for nothing? Ok..
Everything at this level is worthy of scrutiny, these performances included. But if it's gonna be mostly on the back of a sum of slight inaccuracies added up it's gonna sound almost like reverse wishful thinking and attempt at phony outrage.

 

[Lyon]

In the old days a riders limit was unique to each individual, now everybody seems to share the same limit. Every Tom, *** and Harry.

 

[53x11 in DC]

Re:

You smoothly avoid his performance at the TdS....
He is not the same rider type as Martin and Cancellara. You know this. They are both significantly heavier and TD is better for more hilly TTs(Pais Vasco this year).
Somehow the fact that this guy has shown huge engine (and even promising climbing) in the recent and less recent past counts for nothing? Progression count for nothing? Ok..
Everything at this level is worthy of scrutiny, these performances included. But if it's gonna be mostly on the back of a sum of slight inaccuracies added up it's gonna sound almost like reverse wishful thinking and attempt at phony outrage.

just wanted to tip my cap to you - impressed by your respectful approach and thoughtful debate in this thread. In a Clinic full of histrionics and apoplectic debate, you've managed to keep a level head and advance some interesting points.

Refershing change from the norm around here.

 

[Avoriaz]

Re:

In the old days a riders limit was unique to each individual, now everybody seems to share the same limit. Every Tom, **** and Harry.

Or in this case, Tom, Van Dijk or Arie

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Re: Re:

In the old days a riders limit was unique to each individual, now everybody seems to share the same limit. Every Tom, **** and Harry.

Or in this case, Tom, Van Dijk or Arie

 

[Bolder]

Re:

The jury is still out for me on Tom Dumoulin. He turned pro very young and he still is very young. He was always a talent and it is not abnormal to show GT-abilities at the age of 23-24 for the first time. At least it sits better with me than being an absolute nobody until the age of 28-29 and then not showing some talent for GT's but basically going from zero to hero out of nowhere (you know whom I am talking about).

This is a point worth considering. I had a hard time accepting his Vuelta performance, however. Anyone who has ridden recreationally in Spain knows those climbs are not like France or even Italy for that matter.

The question is: Can a rider "built" for TTs or classics "transform" himself into a GT contender without aid? It's impossible to say, unfortunately.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

You smoothly avoid his performance at the TdS....
He is not the same rider type as Martin and Cancellara. You know this. They are both significantly heavier and TD is better for more hilly TTs(Pais Vasco this year).
Somehow the fact that this guy has shown huge engine (and even promising climbing) in the recent and less recent past counts for nothing? Progression count for nothing? Ok..
Everything at this level is worthy of scrutiny, these performances included. But if it's gonna be mostly on the back of a sum of slight inaccuracies added up it's gonna sound almost like reverse wishful thinking and attempt at phony outrage.

On reflection, a few days after the Vuelta has finished, this is how I feel as well. I would say it is extremely probably that one of the top 3 time triallists in the world is doping, but I'm not really sure that the Vuelta performance really adds any more suspicion on top of that.

Although it wasn't obvious beforehand, the course suited him perfectly really. He was able to gain crucial time in the first week when he wasn't seen as a threat and then obviously in the time trial. Then the repeated steep finishes played into his hands because it meant the other contenders were holding a bit back before going with all out attacks at the end; there is only so much time you can lose in 1-2km.

The stage in Andorra and stage 20 were the exceptions without the really steep finish and he lost fairly significant time. They were still amazing performances by him, given his previous climbing level, but I think there are just about consistent with what you would expect from a top hilly time trial specialist if he was sufficiently motivated to give absolutely everything. Especially as they both came after rest day/relatively easy stages.

So overall, I'd be very surprised if he wasn't doping; but that is based on his career as a whole and his time trial performances, more than what he has done at this Vuelta. If he wasn't doping before, then I see no reason to believe he has suddenly started at the Vuelta.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

If the rider himself is surprised, and the people around him are surprised, and noone, noone at all was predicting or even thinking pre-Vuelta he'd be anywhere near the front, I think you can bet money his performance is not normal.

Dutch newspapers aside.

 

[Cntfeelmylegs]

once again he did, 42 then 32 (or sumthing) then DNF ( grand tour progression) on sprint trains with high hopes. I would assume the team had demands for what he did in the mountains(i.e dont stress yourself)

if he wouldve have finished 21 in tdf this year, this is what the numbers predict, how big is the suprise then? We are just missing that TdF where he fell and seemed to be in good form to make this tale a whole lot more logical.

 

[Cntfeelmylegs]

yeah dutch news outlets would hype people because we are always searching for the next Zoetemelk or Jansen but they are not gonna hype some guy who doesnt have it in him at all.

The whole issue seems to be that you have to be a true climber to do well in a gt and tom isnt a true climber but hes good. hes a true allrounder and i think someone like that should be considered close to a prototypical gt winner aswell. He punches a big bloody hole in every true climber at every TT if every deficiency cant be plugged chemically suffienctly anymore and tag along on the climbs lose a bit here and there (hey thats exactly what happend)

maybe we arrived at that point and the drugs they can use now just doenst give you 10% increase in performance in every aspect of road racing

and even if he is doping, hes doing it on presumably his own hypothetical private program and is able to take on the bigshots on shady teams.. Thats talent

 

[hrotha]

Re:

if he wouldve have finished 21 in tdf this year, this is what the numbers predict, how big is the suprise then? We are just missing that TdF where he fell and seemed to be in good form to make this tale a whole lot more logical.

Are you saying that people who come 21st at the Tour are immediate GT material?
2015 - Kruijswijk (28 years old, coming from a tough Giro)
2014 - Gastauer (27)
2013 - Serpa (34)
2012 - Coppel (26)
2011 - Dupont (31)

Ok, maybe if we use the 25-year-old (or younger) who came closest to 21st as a reference?
2015 - Pinot (25, 16th, but he underperformed GC-wise so it's not a good parallel, career-wise)
2014 - Kwiatkowski (24, 28th)
2013 - Bardet (23, 16th)
2012 - Kruijswijk (25, 33rd, again a disappointing performance, since he had shown a lot more before this race)
2011 - Ruijgh (25, 20th)

 

[Cntfeelmylegs]

well to be fair. im also saying that i think those finishes couldve been much higher if he had restdays in the pack like those people you mentioned instead he had to prepare sprints on the flat and close gaps. I assume this influences your performance in the climbs? I assume also that teams dont let you go all out on the climbs if their big days are on the flats so these were relatively easy placings in the overall of the TdF....im i wrong in those assumptions?

 

["Jeff"]

Re:

Well, I think that for Dutchies, the discontinuity in Dumoulin's performance is harder to perceive as most Dutch media already "predicted" that Dumoulin would develop into a GC rider.

For instance, in a 2013 (!) article by the Dutch National Broadcasting Foundation (NOS), influential Dutch cycling reporter Mart Smeets already described him as a future Tour de France GC contender. Iwan Spekenbring, manager of Dumoulin's team Argos-Shimano at the time, reacted to that by saying that "he [Dumoulin] has a profile that fits the TdF". Dumoulin's reaction at the time was "I'm not a GC rider for a three week tour. I'm not the greatest climber in the high mountains.". However, he was not fully conclusive, saying that "He would let himself be surprised by him".

Source: http://nos.nl/artikel/589422-2013-en-de-doorbraak-van-dumoulin.html

To add to that, Brailsford once stated during a press conference in 2014 that he was convinced that Tom Dumoulin was a great talent and that Team Sky had what it would take to develop him into a potential winner of a GT.

Source: http://www.wielerupdate.nl/wielernieuws/29255/team-sky-gecharmeerd-van-groot-talent-dumoulin/

If you search for terms like "Tom Dumoulin ronderenner" including only articles prior to this Vuelta, then you'll find a lot of Dutch articles predicting a great GC future for Dumoulin, even as early as 2013.

So, for the casual Dutch cycling fan, his performance during this Vuelta does not come as a total surprise, not in the least, as the Dutch media have been speculating about him being a potential GC rider in GTs for years. That there is no actual performance pattern leading up his current Vuelta performance is irrelevant to them, as they know he had the potential due to all the speculative articles in Dutch media.

This is also worth mentioning.

Here in Holland we talked about a potential yellow jersey for Dumoulin in Huy @ the Tour de France, but it seems like we were the only ones. Now there's still a big difference between Huy and a mountain, but point is, we judged Tom Dumoulin a lot higher than a foreigner.

 

["Jeff"]

Re:

If the rider himself is surprised, and the people around him are surprised, and noone, noone at all was predicting or even thinking pre-Vuelta he'd be anywhere near the front, I think you can bet money his performance is not normal.

We dont take comments seriously if they deny doping allegations or whatever they say. Rightfully so.

However when it can be used against him/them, like now, we suddenly take comments seriously if a rider and staff suprises himself/themselves..

What side are you on because you cant have it both ways.

 

[Nick C.]

Re: Re:

Well, I think that for Dutchies, the discontinuity in Dumoulin's performance is harder to perceive as most Dutch media already "predicted" that Dumoulin would develop into a GC rider.

For instance, in a 2013 (!) article by the Dutch National Broadcasting Foundation (NOS), influential Dutch cycling reporter Mart Smeets already described him as a future Tour de France GC contender. Iwan Spekenbring, manager of Dumoulin's team Argos-Shimano at the time, reacted to that by saying that "he [Dumoulin] has a profile that fits the TdF". Dumoulin's reaction at the time was "I'm not a GC rider for a three week tour. I'm not the greatest climber in the high mountains.". However, he was not fully conclusive, saying that "He would let himself be surprised by him".

Source: http://nos.nl/artikel/589422-2013-en-de-doorbraak-van-dumoulin.html

To add to that, Brailsford once stated during a press conference in 2014 that he was convinced that Tom Dumoulin was a great talent and that Team Sky had what it would take to develop him into a potential winner of a GT.

Source: http://www.wielerupdate.nl/wielernieuws/29255/team-sky-gecharmeerd-van-groot-talent-dumoulin/

If you search for terms like "Tom Dumoulin ronderenner" including only articles prior to this Vuelta, then you'll find a lot of Dutch articles predicting a great GC future for Dumoulin, even as early as 2013.

So, for the casual Dutch cycling fan, his performance during this Vuelta does not come as a total surprise, not in the least, as the Dutch media have been speculating about him being a potential GC rider in GTs for years. That there is no actual performance pattern leading up his current Vuelta performance is irrelevant to them, as they know he had the potential due to all the speculative articles in Dutch media.

This is also worth mentioning.

Here in Holland we talked about a potential yellow jersey for Dumoulin in Huy @ the Tour de France, but it seems like we were the only ones. Now there's still a big difference between Huy and a mountain, but point is, we judged Tom Dumoulin a lot higher than a foreigner.[/quote]
If I recall correctly, in the US Dumoulin was tabbed as next in line for the Yellow jersey prior to the Huy stage. He crashed out didn't he?

 

[Merckx index]

Re: Re:

[quote=""Jeff"":3tahj03c]
We dont take comments seriously if they deny doping allegations or whatever they say. Rightfully so.

However when it can be used against him/them, like now, we suddenly take comments seriously if a rider and staff suprises himself/themselves..

What side are you on because you cant have it both ways.[/quote]

Why is it both ways? Of course a rider is going to deny doping allegations, because it’s in his very strong interest to do so. Is it in his interest to say he’s surprised at his placing, when he really isn’t?

The most obvious reason I can think why a rider would lie about being surprised is because he is in fact doping, and doesn’t want others to think he was expecting to do so well. If he isn’t doping, and yet he still regards his performance as not a genuine surprise, why would he say it is? If he thinks there are valid reasons why it shouldn’t be considered a surprise, why not voice them?

Not to say Dumoulin is definitely doping, but you seem to be denying that some things a rider says might be more credible than others. Of course they can be. The likelihood that something someone says is a lie is strongly correlated with what that individual has to gain by lying.

 

[Lyon]

Re:

yeah dutch news outlets would hype people because we are always searching for the next Zoetemelk or Jansen but they are not gonna hype some guy who doesnt have it in him at all.

The whole issue seems to be that you have to be a true climber to do well in a gt and tom isnt a true climber but hes good. hes a true allrounder and i think someone like that should be considered close to a prototypical gt winner aswell. He punches a big bloody hole in every true climber at every TT if every deficiency cant be plugged chemically suffienctly anymore and tag along on the climbs lose a bit here and there (hey thats exactly what happend)

maybe we arrived at that point and the drugs they can use now just doenst give you 10% increase in performance in every aspect of road racing

and even if he is doping, hes doing it on presumably his own hypothetical private program and is able to take on the bigshots on shady teams.. Thats talent

That's Horner.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

http://teamgiantalpecin.com/tom-dumoulin-gc-development/

nice article about dumoulin as gc rider. It was Giants plan all along

The big problem he had was not able to pull wattages after a long day

 

["Jeff"]

Re: Re:

[quote=""Jeff"":2exb2txb]
We dont take comments seriously if they deny doping allegations or whatever they say. Rightfully so.

However when it can be used against him/them, like now, we suddenly take comments seriously if a rider and staff suprises himself/themselves..

What side are you on because you cant have it both ways.

Why is it both ways? Of course a rider is going to deny doping allegations, because it’s in his very strong interest to do so. Is it in his interest to say he’s surprised at his placing, when he really isn’t?

The most obvious reason I can think why a rider would lie about being surprised is because he is in fact doping, and doesn’t want others to think he was expecting to do so well. If he isn’t doping, and yet he still regards his performance as not a genuine surprise, why would he say it is? If he thinks there are valid reasons why it shouldn’t be considered a surprise, why not voice them?

Not to say Dumoulin is definitely doping, but you seem to be denying that some things a rider says might be more credible than others. Of course they can be. The likelihood that something someone says is a lie is strongly correlated with what that individual has to gain by lying.[/quote]I said doping allegations and whatever they say.

I dont think anyone expects honesty regarding doping questions.

If management said, they expected this performance all along. They wouldnt be quoted, nor would anyone take that seriously. I am okay with that, no problem. However, now they say that they are suprised by his performance and its used against them and quoted as argument.

 

[noddy69]

Re: Re:

[quote=""Jeff"":33weyams]
We dont take comments seriously if they deny doping allegations or whatever they say. Rightfully so.

However when it can be used against him/them, like now, we suddenly take comments seriously if a rider and staff suprises himself/themselves..

What side are you on because you cant have it both ways.

Why is it both ways? Of course a rider is going to deny doping allegations, because it’s in his very strong interest to do so. Is it in his interest to say he’s surprised at his placing, when he really isn’t?

The most obvious reason I can think why a rider would lie about being surprised is because he is in fact doping, and doesn’t want others to think he was expecting to do so well. If he isn’t doping, and yet he still regards his performance as not a genuine surprise, why would he say it is? If he thinks there are valid reasons why it shouldn’t be considered a surprise, why not voice them?

Not to say Dumoulin is definitely doping, but you seem to be denying that some things a rider says might be more credible than others. Of course they can be. The likelihood that something someone says is a lie is strongly correlated with what that individual has to gain by lying.[/quote]
Being surprised in your own ability and what you can do in the mountains as a pro is silly to be fair if it was true. I do wonder what it would be like if someone started beating cavendish etc at their own game and came out with the surprised comments.