He didnt peak for the Dauphine last year, his coach said during the race that we can expect (even) more for the TdF, well then he crashed.he looked great last year in the dauphine but i am pretty sure he said himself that he was in is absolute peak shape already for that race whereas other riders were still building up a bit more .. pogacar and porte looked terrible compared to later in the tour
guillaume martin similar, he was great in the dauphine on some stages but then only 11th in the tour later on
i am afraid buchmann and bora overate him slightly when they expect him to challenge for podiums in GT's, realisticly he is more a guy who would come between 5-10th in GC ..he would be better off going for stages or miraculously get stronger in 2 or 3 years and step up to becoming a proper contender for the win but i am afraid he is already close to his absolute physical peak
Simply put he wasnt performing close to his physical peak yesterday, just look at his powerfiles on Strava.
That last climb was about 14mins long and he did 371w over that time, on a stage that featured bad weather ( heavy rain but with 12-13 degrees not overly cold) but wasnt ridden especially hard (his WAP was 261w, lower than on all Basque Country stages- that crazy Arrate stage he had 334WAP..) At the Iztulia he consistantly did around 400w for such 14min efforts. Even at Arrate, where he must have been already properly fatigued after riding much harder than he did yesterday, he did well over 385w for also roughly 14mins. With his low bodyweight this means 6,28W/kg vs 6,52w/kg. So with at least Arrate legs Im pretty sure he could have answered the attacks and finished with the first groups of favorites. With 400w (6,78w/kg) they would have had a hard time following him.
He was saying after the stage that the climb didnt suit him, which is true I guess, but it doesnt really explain why he was putting out watt well below what he has shown in prep races. Considering at the last stage of that tough Tour of Basque Country (he attacked the day before as well..) he should be more fatigued than he was yesterday. Only valid explaination could be the weather or that he isnt in top shape right now imo. The altitude training has been mentioned but he actually went there cos he is reacting very well to that kind of training with no real need of an adjustment period. The bora coaches, which are no dummies, also wouldnt send him there if that was the case.