Re: Re:
The Hitch said:
The evidence to take down Lance in 2012 would have been (and to a large part was) laughed out 10 years prior. Similarly you laugh off the connections to Ferrari and his insane power outputs on some climbs, now, but if things continue as they are 10 years from now those kind of things will be considered pretty solid foundations for believing someone doped.
the problem is, Evans never put in performances that we saw in the "Lance era" that we now know to be associated with EPO supercharging. I don't see how you can equate him those performances and riders.
in my lay view (and it sits comfortably among those here I reckon) there are 2 types of riders:
1. decent - good pros who became elite winners when supercharged on EPO etc.
2. exceptional 1 in 10,000 riders who were gifted with extraordinary physiology.
there is good evidence that Evans, like Lemond and Froome fit into #2.
Lance, whose Vo2 was about 83, is #1. there are a whole host of riders who made a 'big leap' forwards after doping. I remember particularly Chiapucci, who was a journeyman until he suddenly started winning and beating everyone on the scene when EPO started coming into play.
Ulrich was definitely #2 but through hard living (and doping) probably made himself into #1. unlike Ulrich, Evans did not sabotage his career with boozing, drugs, nightclubs, etc. he was an extremely focused trainer and was on public record as never waivering from his goal of winning the Tour.
Evans' Vo2max is reportedly 89-90. it's extremely high and his performances since he began competitive cycling have reflected that - he's always excelled. there's been no middle of the bunch and suddenly winning storyline.
The Hitch said:
Its nice of you to admit that you have bias to Evans (which many refuse to do) but that's precisely the problem with arguments like this and its another similarity of yours to the Armstrong crowd even if you do not realize it. People defend riders cos they like them, in situations they wouldn't if they didn't. You say you "accept" other Ozzies dope, but those ozzies weren't the ones competing for the Tour de France, or winning major races. Of course your allegiance to Evans is far stronger than to O'grady or whoever.
Rogers obviously doped. he had a material and ongoing connection to Ferrari (Evans did not), he fit nicely into the T-Mobile team culture and placed 9th in the Tour. he left Sky straight after they introduced a clause requiring riders to declare they had never doped. he never talks about doping, as he is well aware of the suspicions and innuendo that surround him.
by contrast:
1. Evans' connection to Ferrari was extremely tenuous (he discusses this in his book - Rominger, who obviously doped, hooked him up for a test session - that's it). there is zero evidence he engaged Ferrari for doping services.
2. Evans was not taken seriously by T-Mobile (Telekom) and left off the team for big races. this, despite having worn the pink jersey at the Giro in 2002 the year before. There was a clear source of conflict between Cadel and the team over something significant. We can only speculate over what. But certainly there's insufficient evidence to argue Cadel slipped comfortably into the team culture and practices (unlike Rogers).
3. Evans has always been relatively outspoken about doping, even if you won't concede that. He doesn't target other riders, but I've always believed that's reasonable for any rider. The peloton is awash with doping. It's a workplace, like any other. You can't go around slagging off the wrongdoings of your work colleagues. I wouldn't do it at my work and neither would most others. It just creates more problems for yourself than it's worth - regardless of what you really think.
The Hitch said:
And it doesn't override the fact that in 2008 he beat Kohl and that in 2007 he finished 20 seconds behind Contador (is Evans so so so much more talented than Contador that a doped to the gils Contador can only put in a handful of seconds over him?) and cloberred the likes of Levi, Valverde, Popovych, Kirchen, stage after stage after stage.
I will admit that it's hard to reconcile his matching Contador's performances with riding clean. I've not claimed to 'know' that Evans is clean. My views are based principally on a significant number of doping indicators that apply to other riders, that don't apply to Evans, that I listed. It's possible Evans doped just like the others - I can't know, neither can you. But if he did, he covered his tracks a lot more cleverly than most of the others.
I'll change my mind if evidence comes out against Evans. I wouldn't die of shock either - it's pro cycling. But it's been a long time and nothing has been revealed, other than 1 fleeting sessions with Ferrari, which had nothing to do with doping. You can't believe the bits about that you want to (his meeting with Ferrari) then disbelieve the bits you don't (that it was only a testing session) - that's selective logic.
If Evans was clean, and I believe he was, he performed because he had a rare combination of extraordinary physiology (for which there is corroborated evidence) and commitment. If you compare him with Armstrong - Lance apparently descended into something of a drunken wreck after separating from Kristen - yet still managed to salvage a Tour win. Honestly, if I read something similar about Cadel, my belief in him would be shaken a bit. Having said that, Armstrong winning despite those setbacks is still impressive, but I digress - the point is he doped and that's where he got his major advantage.
The key point you're not properly considering is that doping isn't the be-all-and-end-all of performance. JV is on record as saying he could have taken as much EPO as he wanted and wouldn't have matched Lance's performances. The point is - physiology and discipline still matter. Particularly in an era when the degree of doping you can engage in is diminished and with that - the degree of advantage doping gets you.
None of this proves or disproves anything. You'll believe Cadel doped and I don't see enough evidence. Unfortunately you can't prove a negative so if he was clean he'll have to endure innuendo in perpetuity. We only ever get proof of doping and I suspect it's that which drives a lot of people to conclude that doping is more widespread than it is (and it is widespread, just not uniformly practiced).