Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[CyclistAbi]

No you have 3 guys, if they all want to ride, they need to get there in good shape, and if they ride a tactically good race together, then it's a good job, even if they just miss out.

In hindsight maybe sacrificing Pogacar in 2020 looks questionable, but I think they said he didn't have the legs to contest the win?

I am not 100% sure on what 2020 was all about. Likely a bit of everything that pilled up.

As for in general i would never blame them for a miss if i would be convinced they did the best they could. But current situation is:

Politics involved. Here i don't want to judge as i don't know the background in-depth. Only time will tell.

Responsibility. When i read 3 coaches will lead i knew that comes down to neither of them is taking this position seriously (enough).

Management. I just read Pogačar will race them all. Why? Because he is that good that he will surely win them all? He will just train for Il Lombardia? Why exactly is such quantity involved.

Relationship. Who do you talk to for building long(er) term plans.

...

All in all if you have Roglič, Pogačar, Mohorič, Tratnik ... you need to take that seriously. Currently it looks a mess to me.

 

[CyclistAbi]

2020 was likely a gesture of reconciliation as deep down we all more or less knew Roglič was taken advantage of.

 

[bNator]

2020 was likely a gesture of reconciliation as deep down we all more or less knew Roglič was taken advantage of.

I kind of know what you mean but I don‘t agree with that. I mean it‘s true that Pogacar’s strategy was based on laying low and flying under the radar for as long as possible but 1. It’s a legit strategy used by many and 2. Roglic did figure it out it time to beat him. After that it was Roglic and TJV fault for underestimating their own TT vulnerability as well as Pogacar’s strength and not putting more time in Pogacar when they had the chance. Roglic was not taken advantage of - it was his/TJV mistake when they misjudged the situation...

Now I’m not saying Pogacar didn’t cunningly try to pretend he was Roglic’s best friend but after Colombier I think it was pretty much clear who is TJV’s main opponent.

 

[Rackham]

The latest news is saying Roglic is indeed doing the world championship road race: Znani slovenski aduti na belgijskih cestah - Delo

Bring it on.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I kind of know what you mean but I don‘t agree with that. I mean it‘s true that Pogacar’s strategy was based on laying low and flying under the radar for as long as possible but 1. It’s a legit strategy used by many and 2. Roglic did figure it out it time to beat him. After that it was Roglic and TJV fault for underestimating their own TT vulnerability as well as Pogacar’s strength and not putting more time in Pogacar when they had the chance. Roglic was not taken advantage of - it was his/TJV mistake when they misjudged the situation...

Now I’m not saying Pogacar didn’t cunningly try to pretend he was Roglic’s best friend but after Colombier I think it was pretty much clear who is TJV’s main opponent.

I am not blaming Pogačar for doing it. I am just saying objectively speaking they have done it. Hence likely that played a role. Regarding the decisions made at WC 2020.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Mohorič as plan A and after the duo as a backup plan?

 

[Red Rick]

Mohorič as plan A and after the duo as a backup plan?

Epic rock paper scissor battle between Rogla and Pogi who gets to suckwheel Ramco

 

[Oldermanish]

I am not blaming Pogačar for doing it. I am just saying objectively speaking they have done it. Hence likely that played a role. Regarding the decisions made at WC 2020.

I would commend Pogacar for doing it. Strategy is how you win big races whether you're the strongest or not. His team lacked the depth to go head to head. His advisors should get some credit, too.

 

[Red Rick]

I would commend Pogacar for doing it. Strategy is how you win big races whether you're the strongest or not. His team lacked the depth to go head to head. His advisors should get some credit, too.

It wasn't really some 200 IQ chess, unless the implication is that he could've dropped Roglic a few more times for fun and dropped time on Loze for shits and giggles.

 

[yaco]

Don't think the parcour suits Roglic but he's talented enough to get a result.

 

[Red Rick]

Don't think the parcour suits Roglic but he's talented enough to get a result.

Probably the hardest Worlds route to even predict.

I can't really estimate if it's harder or easier than say RVV. I guess it's easier?

 

[Rackham]

I think it's indeed impossible to predict.

We could throw all the top names around in a hat & then outsiders as well & someone among them will likely be the winner. The long range weather forecast looks good so far, so it doesn't appear rain will be there to cause extra carnage.

The pressure is on the Belgians & French. The French who FYI had a weird last minute replacement in their pre-selection team with Romain Bardet taking Franck Bonnamour's spot. Why? Because Bonnamour's selection was apparently (according to the French) an "administrative error": Romain Bardet également présélectionné pour les Championnats du monde - L'Équipe (lequipe.fr)

Imagine getting that particular phone call if you're Bonnamour? So based on their current form & preparation, watch out for Alaphilippe riding even more skittishly than usual (pressure will be huge). Van Aert is massive massive favorite but that's usually a real disadvantage.

I'd say Roglic & Pogacar just need to ride on instinct & follow whichever wheels seem like the right ones on the day & attack if possible. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

 

[noob]

Because Bonnamour's selection was apparently (according to the French) an "administrative error": Romain Bardet également présélectionné pour les Championnats du monde - L'Équipe (lequipe.fr)

Imagine getting that particular phone call if you're Bonnamour?

OMG that's awful :O (Also not convinced I'd pick Bardet over him)

 

[Rackham]

OMG that's awful :O (Also not convinced I'd pick Bardet over him)

Sure. And I only posted that here because I reckon it's an early sign of the usual French boom bust cycle in major sporting events. It happens in football & other sports, i.e. they win big & then follow up with a massive fail. This 2021 world championship (if tradition & stereotype is followed) will be a huge bust.

And regarding Pogacar & Roglic, just look at this statistic (i.e. number of world tour wins this season):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1437472510228979715

View: https://twitter.com/puertoapuerto_/status/1437472510228979715


These guys are serial winners & if there's anyone in world cycling who can overcome a parcours disadvantage (at least on paper), it's them.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I would commend Pogacar for doing it. Strategy is how you win big races whether you're the strongest or not. His team lacked the depth to go head to head. His advisors should get some credit, too.

This one is a bit tricky one. IMHO they exploited the wrong part of being a human to their advantage for getting universal commend. Given the position and relationship they where in. Peiper likely indeed should get some credit in this regard.

But all in all that is in the past now. Pogačar securing his future and all in all it didn't turn out that bad for Roglič either. In addition they still have plenty of opportunities left for speaking their mind. Mano a mano style.

 

[CyclistAbi]

"parcour"

Primož Roglič, Tadej Pogačar, Jan Tratnik, Matej Mohorič, Domen Novak, Luka Mezgec, Jan Polanc, David Per.

I would say both plan A (Mohorič) and plan B (duo) looks good. Hence a medal should be in reach.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Epic rock paper scissor battle between Rogla and Pogi who gets to suckwheel Ramco

Could be. They would i guess need to do something rather strange to misfire both options. That is lets say Mohorič option doesn't pan out and after neither of the duo get a medal.

We'll see.

 

[CyclistAbi]

For the sake of the argument lets imagine Roglič taking the win. Then Vélo d'Or would be a steal. But lets not get carried away. A medal for any of them on TT or RR would do for me.

P.S. Hauptman won bronze medal in 2001.

 

[cellardoor]

Why isn't the route suitable for them considering they've both won hilly classics. I mean, I know it's not mountainous, but it looks hilly enough for them to do something. Is the profile deceptive?

 

[BlueRoads]

These Worlds are the easiest thing on earth to predict. Van Aert will win. There's no other option.
They won't get rid of him, with that support cast on this parcours there won't be many tactical possibilities. It will be about the strongest guys on the day and then there will probably be a sprint of a small group and he outsprints everybody except maybe Caleb Ewan or Fabio Jakobsen, who will not be there (in the final). With van der Poel not in (best) form, nobody can rival him.

The other medals are more open. I'm sure it won't be Pogacar or Roglic who will win them, though. The Danes should play a massive role.

 

[SHAD0W93]

These Worlds are the easiest thing on earth to predict. Van Aert will win. There's no other option.
They won't get rid of him, with that support cast on this parcours there won't be many tactical possibilities. It will be about the strongest guys on the day and then there will probably be a sprint of a small group and he outsprints everybody except maybe Caleb Ewan or Fabio Jakobsen, who will not be there (in the final). With van der Poel not in (best) form, nobody can rival him.

The other medals are more open. I'm sure it won't be Pogacar or Roglic who will win them, though. The Danes should play a massive role.

Nah with Cav riding he will get a medal
His run after the Tour is identical minus Olympic silver.

 

[Rackham]

These Worlds are the easiest thing on earth to predict. Van Aert will win. There's no other option.
They won't get rid of him, with that support cast on this parcours there won't be many tactical possibilities.

I can imagine quite a few scenarios in which the theoretical strongest aka favorite doesn't win.

And it's all down to the tactics & flux of the race. A small group would be attacking each other long before the finish & the other teams will absolutely want to blow up the Belgians so they can't pull everyone back at the end. WvA would be forced to work himself chasing everyone down and that's always a tricky situation.

So I could totally foresee 2 or 3 riders breaking from WvA's group & making it to the finish before him.

 

[BlueRoads]

I can imagine quite a few scenarios in which the theoretical strongest aka favorite doesn't win.

And it's all down to the tactics & flux of the race. A small group would be attacking each other long before the finish & the other teams will absolutely want to blow up the Belgians so they can't pull everyone back at the end. WvA would be forced to work himself chasing everyone down and that's always a tricky situation.

So I could totally foresee 2 or 3 riders breaking from WvA's group & making it to the finish before him.

If Wout wasn't also on the strongest team for this kind of race I would agree. But I think the Belgians will have like four or five riders still in the final when everyone else has two at best. They would have to mess up big time to not make it happen.
Even if that did happen - and I really don't see it - I don't think Pogacar and even less Roglic will be there in the final, it will very probably be the typical Flanders riders who can take a medal.

 

[bNator]

BTW is Roglič even allowed to help Mohorič or Pogačar or should he work for Wout?

 

[Rackham]

BTW is Roglič even allowed to help Mohorič or Pogačar or should he work for Wout?

He needs to ride for himself.

It's probably only the Belgian media who think he should ride for WvA (they were screaming at him last year) & it would be weird to expect Roglic to ride for a UAE or Bahrain rider - even if they're his countrymen - because it's not like they're better or a bigger name than he is.