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These Worlds are the easiest thing on earth to predict. Van Aert will win. There's no other option.
They won't get rid of him, with that support cast on this parcours there won't be many tactical possibilities. It will be about the strongest guys on the day and then there will probably be a sprint of a small group and he outsprints everybody except maybe Caleb Ewan or Fabio Jakobsen, who will not be there (in the final). With van der Poel not in (best) form, nobody can rival him.

The other medals are more open. I'm sure it won't be Pogacar or Roglic who will win them, though. The Danes should play a massive role.
What about Pogi outsprinting Wout in OG RR? Wout did more work in last kms, but still. We saw with Asgreen and MvDP, after 250km nothing is so sure in sprints.

And I also don't trust Roglic's sprint after 250km of hard racing. Only way he gets medal is solo imho.
 
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What about Pogi outsprinting Wout in OG RR? Wout did more work in last kms, but still. We saw with Asgreen and MvDP, after 250km nothing is so sure in sprints.
Eh, who took the silver medal and who got bronze?

But yes, he did get surprisingly close and Wout did lose the Flanders sprint to Mathieu so it's not a given that he wins. But the strongest rider on the strongest team is not the best setup for a good race.
 
Roglic won the Olympics gold, then he stomped to a third Vuelta, then he had a one week holiday... & then he called the Slovenian national team & told them he's fit & ready for the world championship road race.

I don't think he'd be in this race if A/he thought Wout van Aert is unbeatable or B/he's signed up as a glorified domestique for Mohoric or Pogacar.
 
Roglic won the Olympics gold, then he stomped to a third Vuelta, then he had a one week holiday... & then he called the Slovenian national team & told them he's fit & ready for the world championship road race.

I don't think he'd be in this race if A/he thought Wout van Aert is unbeatable or B/he's signed up as a glorified domestique for Mohoric or Pogacar.
Yea my bad, don't know why I had in my mind that Pogi won that sprint. It was very close still.

I would think it's more B. He knows he has very little chance for the win, but as far as I know he is quite good friend with Mohoric. So I actually believe he will be more as super domestique, but of course if the chance to fight for the gold is presented, he will take it.

Will be interesting how team Slovenia will play their cards. Try to keep the trio (Mohoric, Pogi, Roglic) together and play it defensive, or more attacking approach and try for breakaways with either of them?
 
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Yea my bad, don't know why I had in my mind that Pogi won that sprint. It was very close still.

I would think it's more B. He knows he has very little chance for the win, but as far as I know he is quite good friend with Mohoric. So I actually believe he will be more as super domestique, but of course if the chance to fight for the gold is presented, he will take it.

Will be interesting how team Slovenia will play their cards. Try to keep the trio (Mohoric, Pogi, Roglic) together and play it defensive, or more attacking approach and try for breakaways with either of them?
I agree. If he is in super form or/and if he gets the opportunity, he will of course try to take it but I think he would attend even if he thought he has very little chance of winning himself.
 
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He needs to ride for himself.

It's probably only the Belgian media who think he should ride for WvA (they were screaming at him last year) & it would be weird to expect Roglic to ride for a UAE or Bahrain rider - even if they're his countrymen - because it's not like they're better or a bigger name than he is.
So he shouldn't ride for his countrymen from another team. And he shouldn't ride for his teammate from another country.

Anyway, the situation last year was very specific and blown out of proportion. They were both losing the race, and unless one would sacrifice himself for the other, neither would win. With Wout being the best sprinter and having done insane work for Roglic in the TDF, it would have been a gesture of appreciation. Again, as things were standing, Roglic was not going to win anyway. You may not agree with it, i actually also hate it when sponsor interest interferes with national team interest, but it is something that has happened countless times in the past. To give you an example, Sven Nys (B) was not allowed to chase Richard Groenendaal (NL) at the WCC cyclocross roughly 20 years ago, by his boss/sponsor, who came to their hotel a few days before the race.
 
If Belgium want a group sprint it's gonna be veeery hard to do anything for teams that don't want one.

For Roglic, I'm not sure there should be huge expectations but he's on good form and it's a long shot and he likes to race. Just spin the RNG wheel and hope for the best
 
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And his form seemed to be getting better by the end of the Vuelta, i.e. it was pretty much his strongest week 3 in a GT. He also looked comfortable enough in that self-anointed "mini-Liège" stage 20 which featured superman Lopez's meltdown.

So I don't know. I mean he's certainly not a favorite & I'm in no way expecting anything (I didn't last year either, but the final result wasn't so bad all things considered). But... who knows. Anything can happen until it doesn't.
 
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So he shouldn't ride for his countrymen from another team. And he shouldn't ride for his teammate from another country.

Anyway, the situation last year was very specific and blown out of proportion. They were both losing the race, and unless one would sacrifice himself for the other, neither would win. With Wout being the best sprinter and having done insane work for Roglic in the TDF, it would have been a gesture of appreciation.
Cold harsh truth: Wout van Aert was paid by Jumbo-Visma to do that work in the Tour 2020.

And based on what Roglic said afterwards about the whole race, he wasn't even happy with the tactics employed (i.e. Roglic said they should have raced more on "instinct").
 
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Daily form will play a role too. On EC both Pogačar and Mohorič couldn't do much about it way before the finish line. Sprinting with van Aert is always risky business. Likely both Roglič and Pogačar don't have a real chance based on the form all three demonstrated lately. Something long(er) will hence need to be explored. Question is who to fire first and where. Around two shots available plus a backup option for sprint and hopefully a medal. Will wait for ITT and that should give some clues on who to fire first.
 
Cold harsh truth: Wout van Aert was paid by Jumbo-Visma to do that work in the Tour 2020.

And based on what Roglic said afterwards about the whole race, he wasn't even happy with the tactics employed (i.e. Roglic said they should have raced more on "instinct").
Everybody knows he was paid to do that. Not sure what your point is here since it has little to do with what i said. And yet i'm sure you can agree, nog every teammate is equal. One might go above and beyond, while another may not. Showing appreciation doesn't have you stop at "it was his job, he got paid".
 
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Lets say Roglič would go all in for van Aert on that race. What difference would it have made? Likely not that much.

P.S. And when Roglič would get dropped a couple of meters after what would be the respond from his team and the public?
 
Everybody knows he was paid to do that. Not sure what your point is here since it has little to do with what i said. And yet i'm sure you can agree, nog every teammate is equal. One might go above and beyond, while another may not. Showing appreciation doesn't have you stop at "it was his job, he got paid".
That conversation about WvA's work in the 2020 Tour only became a topic because A/Roglic lost the Tour (& the sharks started to circle) & B/A section of the Belgian media & fanbase believed WvA was too good to be a domestique for Roglic in that race.

The insinuation was Roglic didn't deserve the teammates he had & should have prostrated himself at WvA's feet by pulling for him in the final hopeless km of last year's worlds a week after the Tour de France. So I think anyone saying Roglic should have pulled for WvA as a "gesture of appreciation" last year already had a pretty biased opinion on the matter of Roglic & his Tour defeat, i.e. namely believing he should have done everything to return the 'favor'.

I disagree entirely with their entire opinion on the matter (which includes their opinion on WvA's role in the Tour & their belief Roglic could have even done more in the world championship).
 
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Roglič - just like any other rider attending WC - has an obligation to serve the interests of his national team 100%. If he helped Wout by sacrificing himself, he would not only sacrifice his result but the result of the national team he represents. If he helped Wout by sacrificing himself, he would gain personal benefit (eternal gratitude from Wout and favour returned in non-national-competition-context) by using state's resources. That's basically corruption...
 
Roglič - just like any other rider attending WC - has an obligation to serve the interests of his national team 100%. If he helped Wout by sacrificing himself, he would not only sacrifice his result but the result of the national team he represents. If he helped Wout by sacrificing himself, he would gain personal benefit (eternal gratitude from Wout and favour returned in non-national-competition-context) by using state's resources. That's basically corruption...
Well, he was already last from the group so wouldn't really have been a sacrifice of his or the team's result. However I think he was just dead after the last climb and wasn't able to help anyway so the discussion seemed pretty useless to me.
 
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Daily form will play a role too. On EC both Pogačar and Mohorič couldn't do much about it way before the finish line. Sprinting with van Aert is always risky business. Likely both Roglič and Pogačar don't have a real chance based on the form all three demonstrated lately. Something long(er) will hence need to be explored. Question is who to fire first and where. Around two shots available plus a backup option for sprint and hopefully a medal. Will wait for ITT and that should give some clues on who to fire first.
I think something to remember here is the fact 2nd & 3rd mean absolutely nothing in the road race world championship, as opposed to the Olympics where a bronze or silver is still considered 'good' to an extent. So the motivation to get "get a medal" is nowhere near as big as in the Olympics. It's pretty all or nothing. The winner gets the glory & the rest get diddly-squat. There's no broader medal table which needs feeding for the sake of their country.

Tbh I'm pretty hyped for this one because the start list promises some tasty moments. .
 
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@Rackham

For me Roglič holding a silver ITT medal from 2017 means something.

Anyway, good we had this conversation. Roglič being there obviously can come down to a medal for him. If Mohorič or Pogačar get it that is fine by me. If none of them get it then i feel that that will count as a disappointment. Considering the team strength.

We'll see.
 
@Rackham

For me Roglič holding a silver ITT medal from 2017 means something.

Anyway, good we had this conversation. Roglič being there obviously can come down to a medal for him. If Mohorič or Pogačar get it that is fine by me. If none of them get it then i feel that that will count as a disappointment. Considering the team strength.

We'll see.
Well, I could chat about this forever (i.e. cycling) & Roglic is my favorite rider.

But I'm also not Slovenian either so the whole medal aspect for the team means nothing, although I reiterate the fact it means very little in the broader sense as well.

Take France last year: an entire team devoted itself to Alaphilippe & he got the jersey... whilst his teammates got absolutely nothing whatsoever. They did what they were told to do in the race to help him win but it was Alaphilippe & his team DQS who got to ride around for a year with the world champion colors.

So I wouldn't exactly be super happy if a UAE or Bahrain rider wins the world championship. If I had to choose someone other than Roglic I'd even prefer Wout van Aert to get it (although my own personal hunch is someone like Magnus Cort will win, but we'll see).

In any case as per usual I'll be totally all in for Roglic on the day hoping for the best, i.e. because he'd make an awesome world champion & riding next season with that jersey would be pretty epic. But I don't have any expectations whatsoever.
 
As this is national event i guess it helps a bit if your fellow countrymen wins a medal. If there is no national appeal to it then for sure you likely wish somebody you are a fan of to win. If Pogačar would win it then it would be rather sweet to take the Tour title from WC RR champion and defending Tour champion. Wouldn't it? If van Aert wins it then yes JV will have a WC RR champion and i can cope with that just fine. If Mohorič takes it then he will get a team next year, working for him on some races that suit him. If Roglič wins it then it would just be epic all around for me. And i am sure that for some other people too.

But all in all if Roglič gets a mere medal that is still epic in my book.
 
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