I don’t think we’ve learned anything so far, to be honest. Roglic likely more cautious than Vingo and Pogi because 1) Brissenger had just crashed twice and there was less data about how the course was riding; 2) It was actively raining; 3) He has fewer future chances, based on age, than Vingo and Pogi and can’t afford another lost Tour; 4) He crashed out of last year’s Tour.
This.
Of course, that takes the fun out of these forum pages, so I get it.
While we are talking about Rogla, I just want to say that, like many fans, I choose to support individual riders based on an admittedly superficial reading of their personalities, riding/racing style, their exploits on the bike, etc. I love this guy's attitude toward racing, the way he always looks forward rather than backward, and his endearing personal story as ex-ski jumper-turned-WT-star comparatively late in sporting life.
I hope he wins the TdF this time around, but I'll still follow and enjoy his racing regardless of the outcome, just as I expect he will carry on in his familiar style and deal with any adversity that raises its ugly head. For the record, however, I do not think he is "finished" in any true sense of the word.