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In my opinion it's the gasoline engine of Alaphilippe that did the initial damage. After riding perfectly paced stage. Then it was a semi gasoline kick by Evenepoel. Then into diesel mode. Neutralizing Alaphilippe is hence a must. This is something that JV can likely do alone. If other teams would choose not to participate. I find that less likely, for other teams to not try, but you never know. Before the final climb. As on last climb Rogla can't rely on help from JV. Best to use (part of) the team before. To mess with the plans of QS.

Further on lets say stage 9 it looked initially like Rogla will lose 2 minutes. It came down to under a minute. All in all the diesel engine must be isolated and must be put under difficulty. On the last climb. Early enough. Or by using some other tactics with a similar results.

From Rogličes perspective he isn't peaking just yet. But all in all isn't that bad either. On a hill he will likely get isolated every time. For Evenepoel i don't expect it to be just smooth sailing. As the race progresses.

We'll see.
I was thinking you cannot use Galiber tactics against Remco. He will just diesel his way up to the attack, risking getting either Rog or Vingegaard dropped (whoever did not launch the first attack). Except Remco may not turn off the engine when catching up. He may just keep on dieseling. It risks blowing up both riders if those tactics are played out
 
Yes it is. Countless of riders have been able to push more watts later on in the race. Like Nibali in the 2016 Giro. Or Froome in the 2014 Vuelta.
There are others forum channels for that ;)

you don't build muscles without rest/recovery. you don't gain efficiency.


I was thinking you cannot use Galiber tactics against Remco. He will just diesel his way up to the attack, risking getting either Rog or Vingegaard dropped (whoever did not launch the first attack). Except Remco may not turn off the engine when catching up. He may just keep on dieseling. It risks blowing up both riders if those tactics are played out

Biggest problem is drag. Only reason he could drop Mas and Roglic was because it was to steep. The less steep it is, the more advantageous drafting becomes, the harder it is to drop someone.
Typically you will need to attack on such a climb to create some distance so getting back requires the same amount of power. In all other cases the difference in what you push should be relatively big.
So I think if Remco starts drilling at the front on these mountains, Roglic just needs to follow. in the end Remco will consume more energy than roglic resulting in roglic being able to attack and jump away in the last km/500m.
Alternatively Remco doesn't want to ride in the front, but roglic can attack --> resulting in Remco following him. If roglic stops and remco doesn't take over (see above situation) he can play stop and go with Remco. Roglic should fare a lot better with such stop & go than Remco...

I don't see the race as over for Roglic, the only thing that is required for it to work is that he should be able to follow remco on a less steep climb. And i think he shoud be able to do that.
 
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I was thinking you cannot use Galiber tactics against Remco. He will just diesel his way up to the attack, risking getting either Rog or Vingegaard dropped (whoever did not launch the first attack). Except Remco may not turn off the engine when catching up. He may just keep on dieseling. It risks blowing up both riders if those tactics are played out
Here i feel we need to look beyond the hype. In my opinion Remco can't do that. He is really good at certain elements and QS successfully amplified that by sacrificing Alaphilippe. This is basically their numbers game. Pace the stage perfectly, use Alaphilippe to blow up most of the peloton at the beginning of the final climb, a kick from Remco to put the remaining ones in difficultly, when trying to follow, and after to pace himself. Before the field recovers and realizes what has hit them. The field felt for it and it played out nicely for QS. On more than one occasion. But i don't feel it's all over. As up to a point this is still just a bluff. Isolating Remco, provoking and and surviving that first kick. If done early at the ultimate climb. Then anything is possible. Have just read that Mas said he will go for all or nothing. Hence it's likely not just up to JV to do something. Too much talent on this race for us to expect they won't try everything. And in my opinion at some point Remco will be put in difficultly.
 
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I wonder who will even finish this race from Jumbo Visma. Looks like it's not Covid but flu or something. Maybe Roglič is also under the weather these days.
I am reading these, as well as the ridiculous situation at the finish yesterday (2 DSs standing around, Roglic sitting alone on his bike), as heralding Rogla's departure from TJV at the end of the season. But maybe I am just an optimist / pessimist (depending on the perspective).
 
Here i feel we need to look beyond the hype. In my opinion Remco can't do that. He is really good at certain elements and QS successfully amplified that by sacrificing Alaphilippe. This is basically their numbers game. Pace the stage perfectly, use Alaphilippe to blow up most of the peloton at the beginning of the final climb, a kick from Remco to put the remaining ones in difficultly, when trying to follow, and after to pace himself. Before the field recovers and realizes what has hit them. The field felt for it and it played out nicely for QS. On more than one occasion. But i don't feel it's all over. As up to a point this is still just a bluff. Isolating Remco, provoking and and surviving that first kick. If done early at the ultimate climb. Then anything is possible. Have just read that Mas said he will go for all or nothing. Hence it's likely not just up to JV to do something. Too much talent on this race for us to expect they won't try everything. And in my opinion at some point Remco will be put in difficultly.
Actually I just read the opposite about Mas. That he can't go all or nothing because the points are so important. He doesn't mind trying, but absolutely not all or nothing. I think only roglic can/has that mindset.

“Ik zou graag alles of niets spelen en ik ga het beste van mezelf geven om deze Vuelta te winnen, maar ik ben me bewust van de punten. Hoe hoger ik eindig in het klassement, hoe meer punten we krijgen. Ik kan geen kamikazepoging ondernemen om zo het klassement én de punten weg te gooien.”
I would love to go for all or nothing and I'm going to give my best to win the Vuelta, but i'm aware about the points. The higher i end up in the GC, the more points i get. I can't do a Kamikaze attempt and throw away the GC and the points.



Think we both read the same thing but interprete is differently.
 
I am reading these, as well as the ridiculous situation at the finish yesterday (2 DSs standing around, Roglic sitting alone on his bike), as heralding Rogla's departure from TJV at the end of the season. But maybe I am just an optimist / pessimist (depending on the perspective).
Not sure I follow your description of the “ridiculous situation at the finish.” What exactly made you think that portended the end for Jumbo + Roglic? I didn’t see it
 
The Vuelta is one giant afterthought for TJV this season. They got their main objective in July & the team commitment to Roglič Vuelta number 4 isn't the same as previously. That's my impression so far.

I mean giving the red jersey away (for example) last Wednesday also seems like a bit of a silly concern considering what's happened since (i.e. Jumbo have done no work whatsoever & Evenepoel has a very healthy lead himself).

Now with his two best doms (on paper at least) sent home this is increasingly looking like a desperate affair. I'd also be curious to know what the gauge is for pulling one of these riders out, i.e. Mike Teunissen has been sick for a few days but he's still in. Affini showed no signs of that sickness yesterday & then bam, he's out today. There was a story on Gesink's Instagram where he showed all the TJV riders having a meal outside whilst waiting to take their flight to Alicante last night, i.e. Affini included, and nothing seemed out of the ordinary.

Not sure I follow your description of the “ridiculous situation at the finish.” What exactly made you think that portended the end for Jumbo + Roglic? I didn’t see it
Bad vibes Vuelta.

It's not just about his form, it's the overall zany fun factor has gone. No more vamos a la playa or cervezas, just stuff like Oomen saying Rog is mystery man & Niermann occasionally showing his glum face in front of the cameras.

This race needs a game changer aka something to reverse the 'depression' trend. I have no doubt he's going to put in a very studious performance tomorrow & I also read the weather is hot down there as well, i.e. something Rog usually enjoys.

2 weeks with nothing to lose, basically, so let's go.
 
I wonder if Roglic didn’t handle the Tour as situation as some of us assumed he would/did. I did find it odd that he didn’t post anything to honor the team or Vingegaard. I also saw his joy after Granon. Not sure what to make of it all.
I've already made my own position known re the TdF 2022: Rog was f*cked over by Jumbo.

So, absolutely everything people see, read about or hear which shows something is now 'off' between Jumbo & Roglič (even when totally speculative) is IMO an open question. Both sides of the argument can be valid.

Something I do know for sure: Rog fought like hell yesterday, i.e. for real. He climbed & suffered like he was on the Col de la Loze all over again (or the Angliru 2020). He didn't switch off & coast, he went deep like his life depended on it. So he's totally 100% committed to racing this Vuelta as best as he can.

Whether he gets better or not, we don't know. But we do know he's fighting hard.
 
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To be honest the level of Contador and Froome in Vuelta 2014 was most likely lower than their level at the start of the TdF 2014. Atleast that certainly was the feeling I had during the Vuelta 2014.
This is speculating ofcourse.
How could it be anything but lower? Contador had a fractured tibia and was off the bike for weeks like Primoz was. Froome had a broken hand and could only ride a trainer, but at least could exercise his legs, Primoz and Contador couldn't. There is No Way any of them could have the form they had going into the Tour.

There was just no Remco in killer form in the race! But he can possibly fade while Primoz finds better legs then he has now due to some much-needed work in them.
 
How could it be anything but lower? Contador had a fractured tibia and was off the bike for weeks like Primoz was. Froome had a broken hand and could only ride a trainer, but at least could exercise his legs, Primoz and Contador couldn't. There is No Way any of them could have the form they had going into the Tour.

There was just no Remco in killer form in the race! But he can possibly fade while Primoz finds better legs then he has now due to some much-needed work in them.
I agree. This makes sense. But I read an analysis of that Vuelta once that convinced me that their numbers were pretty similar to 2013 Tour Froome level, but maybe they both would have been even better. Regardless, yes, a difference here is a top tier talent 100% focused on and prepped for the Tour.
 
So a Race of Truth in a few hours. Primoz's season will not be limited by the results but it is a moment in Remco's career and the results will definitely influence strategy for him and the hope he may provide Belgium with the hero they expect. A few more days out is another possible denouement, depending on tomorrow's outcome.
This is great viewing for fans and follows an exciting TdF.....I'm enjoying this season no matter what the outcome. Arriba!
 

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I wonder if TJV signing Tratnik (a good friend of Roglič) has anything to do with keeping him under control and as a second option to Vingegaard. Like look, we brought your friend over, now be a super dom to Vinge in TdF and keep a smiling face.
Nope. TJV wanted Tratnik last year, but he was still under contract with Bahrain at that time. And then at the Giro after Jan had to abandon the race they made a deal.
 
I actually think that was a very good performance. It was a better ITT than he produced in 2020, I'd wager (i.e. he only won that Vuelta ITT with a 1 second margin & needed a final murito to gap Carapaz & Carthy). Here it was all flat & he paced himself well.

The big difference is of course Evenepoel. But it's pointless looking at the gap at the moment because the most important element is Roglič getting his climbing legs back later this week. Without that, talk of GC (whether a podium or a win) is a moot point.
 
I actually think that was a very good performance. It was a better ITT than he produced in 2020, I'd wager (i.e. he only won that Vuelta ITT with a 1 second margin & needed a final murito to gap Carapaz & Carthy). Here it was all flat & he paced himself well.

The big difference is of course Evenepoel. But it's pointless looking at the gap at the moment because the most important element is Roglič getting his climbing legs back later this week. Without that, talk of GC (whether a podium or a win) is a moot point.
All great points. I'm not so optimistic about Roglic being able to find really good climbing form in this race, but his toughness has never been greater.
 

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