Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Red Rick]

I just know we're gonna angrily debate that stage for 5 months then we get a Garzelli type winner on that day

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Would Foss or Wilco help a fallen Roglic off the floor on a cobbled stage?

Honestly, if you have to be helped off the floor you‘re not gonna win anyway.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

You mean the Giro "mountain" TT where he only beat superclimber Campenaerts by 11s because Campenaerts had a flat and got pushed off his bike by his own mechanic? Yeah, completely different ballgame. Now he won't be facing Campenaerts, Yates and Mollema though and the climb won't be 4% but 12%. So basically that's where your logical conclusion goes off the rails. Evenepoel simply pushes bigger numbers in relation to his cda as well as in relation to his weight. This has nothing to do with underrating Roglic, it's just about looking at the numbers. That is why i said, if both reach day 20 in good form/health, we already know the outcome. This has nothing to do (as i already said) with a 200k mountain stage with 3 HC climbs over 2000 meters. For that we don't know how Evenepoel would stack up. But here we're talking about a TT that will come down to how many watts you can output in 40 minutes.

Well but you really don´t know who is better on that (being fresh) unless you have the internal data from Quick Step and Jumbo Visma. Cda for sure is better in Remco but in terms of w/kg both are great but we dont really know.
In fact, I do have the supposed data from a 2019 Roglic test, I say supposed because it is from a reliable source for me but I have not really seen it. These data are from a Mount Teide camp, after training for 170 km and 4000 meters of climbing before the test. Specifically, we are talking about figures of 6.6 w/kg for around 35 minutes, no idea what it could offer for 30-40 minutes being fresh but theoretically even more so, I sincerely doubt Remco or any other GC rider will beat him by much in pure w/kg.

 

[Andy schleck]

Well but you really don´t know who is better on that (being fresh) unless you have the internal data from Quick Step and Jumbo Visma. Cda for sure is better in Remco but in terms of w/kg both are great but we dont really know.
In fact, I do have the supposed data from a 2019 Roglic test, I say supposed because it is from a reliable source for me but I have not really seen it. These data are from a Mount Teide camp, after training for 170 km and 4000 meters of climbing before the test. Specifically, we are talking about figures of 6.6 w/kg for around 35 minutes, no idea what it could offer for 30-40 minutes being fresh but theoretically even more so, I sincerely doubt Remco or any other GC rider will beat him by much in pure w/kg.

Vuelta 2018, alto de acebo, third week, roglic did 6.5 w/kg during 26 min, stage with 4 cols. In a MTT like mont lussari, certainly he can do a bit more. Probably with will be a 22/25 min effort. Very difficult to someone outcome that type of numbers. Let's see if roglic returns to his best shape.

We also could not forget that this year, roglic already beat remco in a TT at pays basque tour.

 

[DNP-Old]

They are missing some performances from roglic on a 9/10, 12 minutes effort.

Mende tour 2018 7.25 w/kg in 9 min and 07 seconds.

Ermualde, tour pays basque 2021 7.1 w/kg in a 10 min effort.

Ah, yes, they are missing performances that do not qualify.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Talking about TT between roglic and remco, i saw that roglic beat this year remco on tour pays basque ITT @Logic-is-your-friend .

We also could not forget that this year, roglic already beat remco in a TT at pays basque tour.

You mean you saw the result, but not the TT. Roglic was trailing after the climb. He won in the technical section and on the cobbles. Moreover, it was a sub 10 minute effort, which is Evenepoel's biggest relative weakness and one of Roglic biggest strengths.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Vuelta 2018, alto de acebo, third week, roglic did 6.5 w/kg during 26 min, stage with 4 cols. In a MTT like mont lussari, certainly he can do a bit more. Probably with will be a 22/25 min effort. Very difficult to someone outcome that type of numbers. Let's see if roglic returns to his best shape.

We also could not forget that this year, roglic already beat remco in a TT at pays basque tour.

6.57 w/kg indeed according to Naichaca, 6.5 were on Machucos also in 2019 and Moncalvillo 2020, LLomena 6.45 in bad weather conditions and prior to the 6.15 or 6.25 (dont remember) in Covadonga and arround 6 w/kg in the valley, just bonkers this 2021 stage of La Vuelta.
In shorter efforts the better ones are maybe 7.25 in Mende 2018, more than 7w/kg over 14 minutes in Superga and the forgotten one in Almachar 2021 (with headwind) the day of his crash in the descent: 7.1 during 13 minutes and 7.35 for 9 after his attack, similar numbers to Pogacar in Mende. San Luca in 2019 Giro dell Emilia must be terrific as well. In general there are some perfomances of "past Rogla" that are not that well measured by this kind of twitter expert as in the recents years, so there should be more great "unknown" perfomances.
In the longer ones I remember Gamoniteiru around 6 for over 50 minutes after Covadonga stage and in stage 18 with cold weather and Plateau de Solaison trying to go with the crazy Vingegaard doing 6.3 for 35 minutes I think, after a hard and hot stage and still looking far from his best due to Vingegaard being a heck of a climber. Remco of course has several perfomances out of this world and only in one year but some of it are in "easy" days, still I respect him deeply because is a monster talent and between him and Primoz should be close if the slovenian got back to his old self. Roglic
is my current favorite cyclist but I really like both and I would prefer a victory in a GT for each of the two this year
rather than a duel between the two.

P.s.I like being a numbers nerd in cycling but of course numbers are just numbers and should be taken as a good indication but like so many others, it is not an absolute truth when it comes to doing complete analyses.

 

[Red Rick]

If you just go by numbers Vingegaard is a mug.

I have a pet theory that W/kg get overestimated a bit on climbs where they start with a very big group and where air resistance plays a significant role. I think often calculations only do some basic drafting adjustment where they treat any drafting as it's the same.

 

[Netserk]

Horrible. Next to no chance for Rogla to win the Tour now, even if he for once won't be hampered by bad luck.

Anyway, he is destined to take pink on the first stage and wear it all the way through.

 

[Red Rick]

Horrible. Next to no chance for Rogla to win the Tour now, even if he for once won't be hampered by bad luck.

Anyway, he is destined to take pink on the first stage and wear it all the way through.

Farm double, watch Vingegaard fall to Pogacar, and the position in team looks lots better.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Farm double, watch Vingegaard fall to Pogacar, and the position in team looks lots better.

Frankly I'd almost bet on that. I see Jonas struggling a bit with a the medi attention and pressure as the defending winner and sole gc leader (in his own mind Wout probably thinks he's a co-leader even as a gc rider, but let's keep it real)

 

[Red Rick]

Frankly I'd almost bet on that. I see Jonas struggling a bit with a the medi attention and pressure as the defending winner and sole gc leader (in his own mind Wout probably thinks he's a co-leader even as a gc rider, but let's keep it real)

I don't really buy into these intangible reasons that much. Pogacar neesd to be better but if it's a bit closer than this year it gets pretty hard for Vingegaard to drop Pog on this route.

Especially Pogacars sprint and Vingegaards risk aversiveness won't help the latter.

 

[Andy schleck]

Frankly I'd almost bet on that. I see Jonas struggling a bit with a the medi attention and pressure as the defending winner and sole gc leader (in his own mind Wout probably thinks he's a co-leader even as a gc rider, but let's keep it real)

I think the opposite. I think Vingegaard will dominate GC races in the next 5/6 years. He already won one, so that can also take a lot of pressure from him/know better how to deal with the pressure. After his victory, he now know what it takes to win a GC race.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Farm double, watch Vingegaard fall to Pogacar, and the position in team looks lots better.

From what i understood, it was Roglic own decision/wish to have the entire team ride for him as undisputed leader at the Giro (which was no longer possible at the TDF), as opposed to share leadership with Vingegaard and Van Aert. So even if Vingegaard loses the TDF and Roglic wins the Giro, by the time the 2024 TDF rolls around, Roglic will be close to 35.

 

[KZD]

I think the opposite. I think Vingegaard will dominate GC races in the next 5/6 years. He already won one, so that can also take a lot of pressure from him/know better how to deal with the pressure. After his victory, he now know what it takes to win a GC race.

Vingegård has two things going on his favour. He has the strongest team and he is also the arguably the strongest in the combination between mountains and time-trials.

However given how unpredictable cycling is with crashes and illnesses and the rivals that he is up against and others that will come, I don't think we will have a rider that will dominate GC races in the next decade. Even if Vingegård starts the Tour or other GTs he undertakes as the favourite (in week long stage races I still rate him below Pogačar and Roglič), he will always have strong challengers and if he wins next year's Tour as I believe he will, ASO might start making routes with less high mountain and more hilly or medium mountain stages which would leaving him in trouble against Pogačar or Evenepoel. And let's also not forget that he is the oldest out of this new generation of GC riders so he might have less room for improvement.

 

[Andy schleck]

Vingegård has two things going on his favour. He has the strongest team and he is also the arguably the strongest in the combination between mountains and time-trials.

However given how unpredictable cycling is with crashes and illnesses and the rivals that he is up against and others that will come, I don't think we will have a rider that will dominate GC races in the next decade. Even if Vingegård starts the Tour or other GTs he undertakes as the favourite (in week long stage races I still rate him below Pogačar and Roglič), he will always have strong challengers and if he wins next year's Tour as I believe he will, ASO might start making routes with less high mountain and more hilly or medium mountain stages which would leaving him with trouble against Pogačar or Evenepoel. And let's also not forget that he is the oldest out of this new generation of GC riders so he might have less room for improvement.

Vingegaard appeared more later than these two, so altough he is more old, probably he have many years left. But yeah, crashes, ilnesses can ruin everything.
He's not a all round rider like remco or pogacar, he is a pure GC rider that can push big watts during a grand tour. Besides that, he have the best team around him, so i think he have the conditions to win a lot of GC races in the next years.

 

[theyoungest]

You mean the Giro "mountain" TT where he only beat superclimber Campenaerts by 11s because Campenaerts had a flat and got pushed off his bike by his own mechanic? Yeah, completely different ballgame. Now he won't be facing Campenaerts, Yates and Mollema though and the climb won't be 4% but 12%. So basically that's where your logical conclusion goes off the rails. Evenepoel simply pushes bigger numbers in relation to his cda as well as in relation to his weight. This has nothing to do with underrating Roglic, it's just about looking at the numbers. That is why i said, if both reach day 20 in good form/health, we already know the outcome. This has nothing to do (as i already said) with a 200k mountain stage with 3 HC climbs over 2000 meters. For that we don't know how Evenepoel would stack up. But here we're talking about a TT that will come down to how many watts you can output in 40 minutes.

For both riders you could argue that they're going to do great in that final TT, and you could argue the opposite. For example, Evenepoel has so far tended to peak for races that nobody else really peaks for. Roglic is always up against the world's best in their best shape. So it's quite difficult to compare. And no, I don't mean that Giro TT with Campenaerts and Mollema. That's a bit of an outlier in this case.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

For both riders you could argue that they're going to do great in that final TT, and you could argue the opposite. For example, Evenepoel has so far tended to peak for races that nobody else really peaks for. Roglic is always up against the world's best in their best shape. So it's quite difficult to compare. And no, I don't mean that Giro TT with Campenaerts and Mollema. That's a bit of an outlier in this case.

I'm not arguing that Roglic will not do a great TT, simply that i believe that -at least in theory- Evenepoel has the numbers to be superior on this medium length steep climb, assuming they both can keep their form up and stay in good health. I also expect Evenepoel to finish on top in the first TT, for different reasons, as it appears to be a non-technical high speed (slightly downhill*) TT by the coastline, which should suit Evenepoel for different reasons.

As for Evenepoel peaking for races nobody else peaks for, you're kidding, right? He did 3 WCC TT, he finished on the podium 3 times, including the time he came out of the Vuelta. Feel free to compare that to how Roglic performed at the WCC TT after coming out of the Vuelta in 2019.

* I was mistaking, it's the 2nd TT that's slightly downhill

 

[groogster]

I'm not arguing that Roglic will not do a great TT, simply that i believe that -at least in theory- Evenepoel has the numbers to be superior on this medium length steep climb, assuming they both can keep their form up and stay in good health. I also expect Evenepoel to finish on top in the first TT, for different reasons, as it appears to be a non-technical high speed (slightly downhill) TT by the coastline, which should suit Evenepoel for different reasons.

As for Evenepoel peaking for races nobody else peaks for, you're kidding, right? He did 3 WCC TT, he finished on the podium 3 times, including the time he came out of the Vuelta. Feel free to compare that to how Roglic performed at the WCC TT after coming out of the Vuelta in 2019.

If you ask me I would say that Evenepoel will be better than Roglic in all of the iTT´s of this Giro but not in a way that will decide by itself the winner at the end.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If you ask me I would say that Evenepoel will be better than Roglic in all of the iTT´s of this Giro but not in a way that will decide by itself the winner at the end.

I would agree with that. I would expect Roglic' deficit to be less than 2 minutes spread over all TT's. For reference, Pogacar lost nearly 3 minutes in 1 stage to Vingegaard.

 

[Red Rick]

If you ask me I would say that Evenepoel will be better than Roglic in all of the iTT´s of this Giro but not in a way that will decide by itself the winner at the end.

First 2 TTs are obvious, final ITT is basically impossible to predict at this point.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The mountains will likely decide the winner regardless. Not necessarily uphill.

I'm not familiar with the climb, but the unpaved part of the Croix de Coeur above Verbier could be problematic, I reckon. The gravel section is quite long. The descent in particular.

 

[Red Rick]

The mountains will likely decide the winner regardless. Not necessarily uphill.

I'm not familiar with the climb, but the unpaved part of the Croix de Coeur above Verbier could be problematic, I reckon. The gravel section is quite long. The descent in particular.

I just assumed it is already paved or will be paved for the Giro?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I just assumed it is already paved or will be paved for the Giro?

You're right, it;s been paved as of June 2022

 

[Lequack]

Wilco Kelderman will give full support to Primoz Roglic at Giro d'Italia- "Roglic can count on my loyalty"

Wilco Kelderman will give full support to Primoz Roglic at Giro d'Italia- "Roglic can count on my loyalty"

Jumbo-Visma team is not a novelty for Wilco Kelderman who had already represented the team between 2012 and 2016 (formerly Rabobank and LottoNL-Jumbo),Now at 31 he returns to a home that he knows very...

cyclinguptodate.com