Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

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Jul 7, 2013
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I think the gaps were too big to by strategic blundering on the Galibier alone. Also think the Hautacam gap was way bigger than you can explain by just "Pogacar did more work than Vingegaard". Also getting beaten soundly in the TT doesn't speak well for Pog.

But that was 2022. 2023 could easily be different. I can't really think of consecutive Tours where the 2 main contenders had the exact same levels relative to each other.

The question is: was Pog's performance last year as good as in 2021? We haven't seen a typical watt bomb like PDBF or LGB. I think he burned his matches not only on Galibier but also on that cobbled stage where he wanted to kill JV and Rogla (but mighty Wout helped Vinge minimize his losses). IMO those were two decisive stages of the race (the fall on Spendelles also didn't help there).
 
Feb 20, 2012
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The question is: was Pog's performance last year as good as in 2021? We haven't seen a typical watt bomb like PDBF or LGB. I think he burned his matches not only on Galibier but also on that cobbled stage where he wanted to kill JV and Rogla (but mighty Wout helped Vinge minimize his losses). IMO those were two decisive stages of the race (the fall on Spendelles also didn't help there).
I don't doubt it was as good. There was just no terrible weather that he thrives in and Vingegaard was better.
 
Jul 7, 2013
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I don't doubt it was as good. There was just no terrible weather that he thrives in and Vingegaard was better.

I'm not saying his form was worse (it was top notch at the start for sure), only that his overall race performance was lowered by energy expenses on Galibier and the cobbles and maybe by his fall as well. Not saying he would've won otherwise but it would've been way closer.
 
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Feb 20, 2012
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I'm not saying his form was worse (it was top notch at the start for sure), only that his overall race performance was lowered by energy expenses on Galibier and the cobbles and maybe by his fall as well.
I think going hard on 2 stages having after effects the entire rest of the race is just pure grasping for straws. It's seeking for reasons starting with the conclusion that healthy Pogacar is invincible.
 
Jul 7, 2013
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I think going hard on 2 stages having after effects the entire rest of the race is just pure grasping for straws. It's seeking for reasons starting with the conclusion that healthy Pogacar is invincible.

Obviously he's not, after all he lost :p It's just I don't think 3 minutes reflected the real level difference between them (due to the factors I mentioned). It's also true that in 2021 the real difference between them was less than 5 minutes (bad weather plus Vinge's fall clearly upped Pog's advantage).
 
To the bolded, Jonas cracked Pogacar after the latter stupidly followed an attack by Roglic, which clearly was designed as part of a flurry of jabs intended to set up the KO punch by Vingegaard. However, in Jonas's form that day he would have dropped Tadej anyway, just perhaps gaining less time in the end, but still enough to win the Tour. Secondly Roglic did not crack Evenepoel, but dropped him after the Belgian crashed heavily leading to his only well-managed bad day of the Vuelta. When someone "cracks," he ships big time, the GC is over, instead Evenepoel was dropped for 1:01 or something like that, with Mas somewhat further ahead, who a recovered from the crash Remco went on to beat again on the last serious MTF. Hence, Evenepoel experienced a temporary setback and clearly would have prevailed in the end regardless.

At any rate, back to Roglic's hypothetical potential/role at the Tour, I find this whole discussion, which was triggered by some knucklehead comments by Chris Horner, rather silly, because bar mishap Vingegaard is going to be the undisputed team leader at the Tour. He has to be, he is younger and stronger than Roglic, as well as, unlike Primos, a proven past winner of the Grand Bouclé. At 33, Roglic can hope to win the Giro, but with a healthy and exclusively prepared Vingegaard in top shape for the Tour, I can't even believe people are talking about Roglic's "possibilities at the Tour," a race in which at present he is not even designated to participate.

Now as far as Roglic winning the Giro against Evenepoel with "medium effort" is concerned. You can't be serious, can you? Do you actually think that with Remco a year older, with last season in his legs and with his talent, not to mention with three ITTs of the Corsa Rosa, Roglic's just going to be teed-up by his team to sprint away from the Belgian and win the Giro without too much effort, and all of this despite a particularly hard third week? Well, I suppose anyone can harbor fantasies, and in cycling stranger things have happened, but come on man that just seems ridiculous! Yet I'm willing to entertain all of this and reassess things after the Giro, but I can't at the moment think any of what you (and Horner) suggest could take place actually will.
Remco had a good UAE race and did pretty much what all projected. He doesn't appear to be peaking early and can probably lean out. That's good for him. As for Primoz; we don't know his form yet and will find out soon, hopefully. The Giro will reveal some form but to presume he will never win the Tour is conjecture. Save for race-ending crashes he could have won several already. His blow-up in the TT to Pogi could've been the "bad day" that cost him another.
You're seriously projecting on the age thing as maturation is individual and older riders that drop off the charts do so usually because of complacency and attitude. Primoz is not either and isn't going to mail-in an effort if he has it.
 
Jan 8, 2020
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Remco had a good UAE race and did pretty much what all projected. He doesn't appear to be peaking early and can probably lean out. That's good for him. As for Primoz; we don't know his form yet and will find out soon, hopefully. The Giro will reveal some form but to presume he will never win the Tour is conjecture. Save for race-ending crashes he could have won several already. His blow-up in the TT to Pogi could've been the "bad day" that cost him another.
You're seriously projecting on the age thing as maturation is individual and older riders that drop off the charts do so usually because of complacency and attitude. Primoz is not either and isn't going to mail-in an effort if he has it.
To the bolded, I wrote after the Giro and against those two it won't happen, if you read my posts carefully. That's a bit different from saying he'd never win the Tour, but with the latest crop and his age, I'm becoming skeptical. His year was 2020 and unfortunately he lost. However, if he should win I will give him a standing ovation. Seriously
 
Sep 5, 2020
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Pogačar/UAE made a pact with Roglič to help Roglič win TdF this year. JumboV will send Roglič up the big hills to make Pogačar chase but he won't do that. So him and Jonas will loose a bunch of time. Roglič wins TdF and signs with UAE to finish his career there and help Pog destroy the Peloton in next couple years. Evil Slovenian plan....or was that just a dream?
 
Feb 27, 2023
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I see your point about Pog having to mark both Vingegaard and Roglic would be to Jumbo-Visma's advantage. Last year that was already the plan and the Dutch team was in the imcomfortable position of trying to get things sorted out so that Vingo could be leader, cleanly resolved, however,by Roglic's fall. This year it's different. Vingegaard will go into the Tour as undisputed team leader. So, depending on Roglic's level, should he actually start the Tour, how do you utilize the Slovenian? As a domestique deluxe? Do you send him up the road on a mountain stage to force UAE to work and then have Vingegaard counter? Do you use him to try and isolate Pog like last year on the Galibier, to then have Vingegaard make a monster attack? I suppose it also depends on how much say in the matter Vingegaard has in team plans and race strategies.

Horner said he thought Roglic's light schedule before the Giro reminds him of how he arrived at the 2013 Vuelta rested and fresh, which he carried through Worlds. However, the Giro is going to be way harder than anything Horner did before the Vuelta. So that means Roglic would show up at the Tour unlike Horner in the 2013 Vuelta. This is why I found his analogy so flawed.
In Horner's comparison his Vuelta = Rogla's Giro and his form at the worlds (which he said was even better than his form at any point at the Vuelta) = Rogla's form at the Tour.
 
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May 29, 2019
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In regards to cracking Pogi at TDF 2022. Winners write history, hence Jonas did it all alone, riding with a single leg. For historians that actually care about history, as it unfolded. Pogi made a gesture looking at TV camera. At that point it was all over. And that was before Jonas took over solo.

As for potential Tour 2023 participation from Roglič. If he will be there and if Rogla, Pogi and Jonas will be in top shape. Then what Pogi will likely do, if realizing he can't beat both. He will decide who JV leader is. And by doing that obliviating their numbers game. JV will likely never sacrifice Jonas for Rogla to gain an advantage. Like Rogla did for Jonas at TDF 2022. Pogi on the other hand can. So if realizing he can't beat both and he feels Jonas would be harder to beat. The best thing he can do is to let Rogla go to gain around 2 minutes advantage. Then it's Rogla vs Pogi all over again. Jonas becoming super dom. We'll see.

As for Giro 2023. Rogla is a sprinter hence his team should deliver him to the launchpad. Relentlessly. He will do the rest.
 
Jan 8, 2020
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In Horner's comparison his Vuelta = Rogla's Giro and his form at the worlds (which he said was even better than his form at any point at the Vuelta) = Rogla's form at the Tour.
Yes, but doing the Giro before the Tour is not like doing the Vuelta before Worlds. To win the Giro-Tour is monstrous, the Vuelta-Worlds within the program since 95.
 
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Feb 27, 2023
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Yes, but doing the Giro before the Tour is not like doing the Vuelta before Worlds. To win the Giro-Tour is monstrous, the Vuelta-Worlds within the program since 95.
Yes, of course it is more difficult to do the Giro-Tour double, but at least he has a chance to be at the start of the Tour in good shape. Also, there is more time between the end of the Giro and the start of the Tour then between the end of the Vuelta and the start of the Worlds (I do not know if this is good or bad).
 
May 29, 2019
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For such comparisons you always need some context. For Rogla we already know he is capable of finishing two GT's per year and to be competitive in regards to top positions. But obviously the idea here is to win both. That would come down to beating Evenepoel at Giro and beating Pogačar and Vingegaard at the Tour and to do all that in 2023 season.

This sounds so crazy that it actually starts to makes some sense.
 
May 29, 2019
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Jul 18, 2020
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The question is: was Pog's performance last year as good as in 2021? We haven't seen a typical watt bomb like PDBF or LGB. I think he burned his matches not only on Galibier but also on that cobbled stage where he wanted to kill JV and Rogla (but mighty Wout helped Vinge minimize his losses). IMO those were two decisive stages of the race (the fall on Spendelles also didn't help there).
Gianetti said that pogacar was at the same level or even better than 2021 and 2020, except for the stage's granon.

Look, forget about vingegaard. Except the stage of granon, pogacar make great differences for everybody(except vingegaard) like he did in 2021. His level was the same, simply this time, another rider could fight with him.

This performances were very good in the most fastest tour ever.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/CyclingGraphs/status/1550480788646510594
 
Feb 20, 2012
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Gianetti said that pogacar was at the same level or even better than 2021 and 2020, except for the stage's granon.

Look, forget about vingegaard. Except the stage of granon, pogacar make great differences for everybody(except vingegaard) like he did in 2021. His level was the same, simply this time, another rider could fight with him.

This performances were very good in the most fastest tour ever.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/CyclingGraphs/status/1550480788646510594
I think the obsession with climbing numbers has gotten a bit much. Especially in these grasphs where often a riders best performances can be days where they got like 5th and the entire field was just super fast, yet their big climbing win is somehow a weak performance. And it completely misses strategy as well. And it gets super silly when you start including consecutive climb in one trendline. And it has a huge bias to super low altitude climbs.
 

Elos Anjos

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May 23, 2022
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I think the obsession with climbing numbers has gotten a bit much. Especially in these grasphs where often a riders best performances can be days where they got like 5th and the entire field was just super fast, yet their big climbing win is somehow a weak performance. And it completely misses strategy as well. And it gets super silly when you start including consecutive climb in one trendline. And it has a huge bias to super low altitude climbs.
It's part of the Big Data trend as providing more quantification in all fields (not only sports, but labor, industry) as equating more objectivity in performance and training. I think it's just the beginning. Teams and viewers in the future will likely have access to live wattage output of every rider. Still, they will miss the mark.
 
I think the obsession with climbing numbers has gotten a bit much. Especially in these grasphs where often a riders best performances can be days where they got like 5th and the entire field was just super fast, yet their big climbing win is somehow a weak performance. And it completely misses strategy as well. And it gets super silly when you start including consecutive climb in one trendline. And it has a huge bias to super low altitude climbs.
Thank you. The obsession with numbers began with quality training and documentation and has that place. It aids strategy and prescriptions for rider recovery.
Once the race starts there is the human will and conditions of the road that can wreck the best predictions and I love that part of it. That's where the new phenoms live and the surprisingly heroic results give us thrilling performances.
Arguing how those things happened in a formulaic bubble reduces it to gaming IMO.
 
Aug 13, 2011
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For such comparisons you always need some context. For Rogla we already know he is capable of finishing two GT's per year and to be competitive in regards to top positions. But obviously the idea here is to win both. That would come down to beating Evenepoel at Giro and beating Pogačar and Vingegaard at the Tour and to do all that in 2023 season.

This sounds so crazy that it actually starts to makes some sense.
Roglic has finished two GTs back to back once when he was younger and not as beat up/injured. He also went from Tour to Vuelta and Giro to Vuelta in the two times he’s completed two GTs in the same year, instead of Giro to Tour which is a lot harder to pull off.
 

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