To the bolded, Jonas cracked Pogacar after the latter stupidly followed an attack by Roglic, which clearly was designed as part of a flurry of jabs intended to set up the KO punch by Vingegaard. However, in Jonas's form that day he would have dropped Tadej anyway, just perhaps gaining less time in the end, but still enough to win the Tour. Secondly Roglic did not crack Evenepoel, but dropped him after the Belgian crashed heavily leading to his only well-managed bad day of the Vuelta. When someone "cracks," he ships big time, the GC is over, instead Evenepoel was dropped for 1:01 or something like that, with Mas somewhat further ahead, who a recovered from the crash Remco went on to beat again on the last serious MTF. Hence, Evenepoel experienced a temporary setback and clearly would have prevailed in the end regardless.
At any rate, back to Roglic's hypothetical potential/role at the Tour, I find this whole discussion, which was triggered by some knucklehead comments by Chris Horner, rather silly, because bar mishap Vingegaard is going to be the undisputed team leader at the Tour. He has to be, he is younger and stronger than Roglic, as well as, unlike Primos, a proven past winner of the Grand Bouclé. At 33, Roglic can hope to win the Giro, but with a healthy and exclusively prepared Vingegaard in top shape for the Tour, I can't even believe people are talking about Roglic's "possibilities at the Tour," a race in which at present he is not even designated to participate.
Now as far as Roglic winning the Giro against Evenepoel with "medium effort" is concerned. You can't be serious, can you? Do you actually think that with Remco a year older, with last season in his legs and with his talent, not to mention with three ITTs of the Corsa Rosa, Roglic's just going to be teed-up by his team to sprint away from the Belgian and win the Giro without too much effort, and all of this despite a particularly hard third week? Well, I suppose anyone can harbor fantasies, and in cycling stranger things have happened, but come on man that just seems ridiculous! Yet I'm willing to entertain all of this and reassess things after the Giro, but I can't at the moment think any of what you (and Horner) suggest could take place actually will.