- Jun 30, 2022
- 7,443
- 10,833
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ITT gaps are always hard to estimate in advance. I think Roglič can be very happy if he‘s second-best of the GC riders ahead of guys like Kämna and Thomas.
It's hard to say when it comes to Rogla. Realistically cyclists like Ganna and Evenepoel can have an edge on such route. But there is some technicality involved and a ramp at the end. So Rogla likely won't wear pink on day 1. Likely will stay close enough for that not to matter. First one hence is for me about some prestige and to get the engines started. Throwing everything at it likely doesn't make much sense. Still a good performance is something Rogla should strive for. Hence i am looking forward to it. If he manages to get in pink. That would be a bit of a surprise and powerful psychological gain. But i feel this is less likely scenario. So staying in within 15s - 20s should be good. If it would be more then that. Then we'll just have to do a bit more in stages to come. It's a GT. Here you actually can take some time for celebration at the end of the stages.
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
In that opening ITT, half a minute lost against Evenepoel is possible.
Apparently it's got a really long straight in it, something which unfortunately nullifies Rogla's strength in technical ITT's (he does well on technical roads with lots of cornering, whereas on long flat straights, not so much).
I'm trying to be realistic here because that entire first 9 days looks like a damage limitation exercise. The Giro is going to be like Rocky 3 with Evenepoel in the role of Clubber Lang. It's the eye of the tiger.
- Mar 15, 2022
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I don't know what to expect from him... he was not happy at all after ITT at Tirreno. 15-20s behind Remco would be good.
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,940
- 44,325
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TTs aren't that similar though. IIRC Roglic went through the worst of the rain or at least was cornering pretty badly but still did a decent time.
I anticipate gaps to be quite a bit bigger. Under 20s lost would be great
- Jan 31, 2016
- 3,611
- 6,035
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You had to refer to the worst of the Rocky movies? Ouch. Although, Remco might not mind the nickname.
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
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Good iconic soundtrack though.
But tbh that's how I see Rog winning the Giro based on the route this year. Evenepoel coming in really hot, landing some heavy (borderline knockout) punches in the first week & then Rog slowly overturning the deficit in week 3 against Evenepoel who's losing power at that point. Like the aforementioned Clubber Lang.
That's my 'happy end' prediction anyway.
I think Roglic will just have to bide his time. Evenepoel is probably going to be quite a bit stronger in the first half of the Giro. Roglic has to stay within striking distance and then opportunities will open up.
- May 8, 2014
- 4,273
- 5,300
- 21,180
Half a minute sounds a little too pessimistic IMO. The last 3km are technical and suited to him. He shouldn't lose any time there. So we are talking about more than 30s gap in a flat 15-16km...it's possible of course and it wouldn't be the end of the world. But I hope for a bettet result.
I know he lost 49s to Ganna in TA, but that ITT was his first race day after the surgery and in questionable weather conditions, so I wouldn't count it as a relevant indicator.
I'm also aware he is going up against a monster in Remco, but Rogla should also be considered a little monster on his own. I get a feeling we Rogla fans (not to mention the majority of other cycling fans) tend to underrate our hero a bit to often, myself included. How many times I thought he had no business winning to then be completely shocked and excstatic when he crossed the line first in the end. I'm learning not to doubt him anymore...
- Jun 7, 2011
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- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
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We lower expectations so not to be disappointed.
Honestly I'm much more relaxed going into this Giro than in other GT's previously, namely because there was pressure in those races to win (like in the Vuelta 2019, 2020 & 2021). The Tour is a different beast but even in the Giro in 2019, Rog was building his reputation & legacy. Proving he could fight against the best & in a few of those races he was expected to win. That's a whole load of pressure right there.
This Giro meanwhile is different because Evenepoel really is a monster. It makes the race a very straight-forward proposition: survive the punches & hit back whenever possible. But it should also be said he doesn't really have much to lose in Italy this month. Even his team are more focused on July (their big big objective) so this is really just about curating his own palmarès.
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
By the way notwithstanding my realistically downbeat expectations about the opening ITT & even the first week in general (for example I also really don't like the look of the ITT before rest day), I'm still confident Rogla can & will win it.
Because I think in week 3 he'll be a monster in his own right, especially in that final ITT right next door to Slovenia.
Because I think in week 3 he'll be a monster in his own right, especially in that final ITT right next door to Slovenia.
I'm hoping for Remco to take time in all TTs and sit on Primoz's wheel a la Catalunya in a poker death match while others go up the road like Carapaz did
Stomped. Beautiful to watch. Will he celebrate in the Giro rather than just ending his ride on his Garmin?
View: https://twitter.com/JumboVismaRoad/status/1653479764395474949
This kinda sucks. Emden and Dennis are obvious downgrades. Why not take Valter, Gloag or Oomen? I doubt these guys go to Tour.
This kinda sucks. Emden and Dennis are obvious downgrades. Why not take Valter, Gloag or Oomen? I doubt these guys go to Tour.
I think Rog will do better in the opening TT than many exect here. The last part is really suited for him, where he probably can gain some time on the best. I'm expecting ~10seconds. Even on the second TT i'm expecting around 30seconds. (= 1s/km).
About the last ITT, it will depend how both riders are going at that point. If they haven't decided the better climber before that... (so both are still up there) I think Roglic will need to climb 20-30 seconds faster, because they will start on road bikes.. but most likely one or the other will have shown better climbing abilities by then.. and that rider will take the that MTT win. (disregarding the circumstances by why this difference came to be)
- Apr 13, 2021
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Weird to me that the Giro team could have been:
Roglic
Kelderman
Kuss
Valter
Oomen
Bouwman
Affini
Tratnik
And instead they select this
Roglič really doesn't have any luck. Did he ever start a GC race with the team that was intended for the race in the first place?
- Apr 3, 2009
- 12,633
- 8,525
- 28,180
Jumbo will be plenty strong to defend Roglič, at minimum they'll be as strong as Quick Step. It does to some extent nullify one huge advantage they had going in. Bad luck would have been Roglič getting COVID. This will be an even playing field.
- Apr 14, 2021
- 1,598
- 3,010
- 10,180
No, it’s bad luck. If Remco wants to have as good team as Roglic, he should go to a better team… Rogla is in that team by merit and by choice and I assume same goes for Remco. So if Rogla’s cards are now all of a sudden way worse than they were through no fault of his own, that’s called bad luck.
They didn't have a huge advantage, I don't know where that idea comes from. Their original lineup wasn't that strong either, as was evidenced in Catalunya where they all were, except for Tratnik. It was already a clear advantage for Quickstep, and it's only gotten bigger.
- Jun 7, 2011
- 20,975
- 20,311
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Roglic is now the 2nd choice GC rider of that team by merit, which is why he does not get to ride the Tour, which is why he does not get the A team in support. If he wants full team support, he too might want to change teams. This is no different than Masnada falling ill at Quick-Step.
- May 8, 2014
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- 5,300
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Of course is different. Masnada is one rider, Jumbo lost two riders last minute, so it's twice as bad.
I don't get why one of the substitutes is Van Emden. Everybody was talking about Gloag being the reserve...what happened did he also fell ill?
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