Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Netserk]

What are the scenarios in which Roglic could lose due to his team's (supposedly weak) support?

More or less the same as for any other contender in any GT.

He also had Kuss with him in the 2020 Vuelta, but still lost time on Formigal. When he wants to dictate the pace of a stage, team depth matters. Kuss alone won't pace both Giau and Tre Croci.

 

[acm]

I'd love to eat my words but I'll be honest, I really don't expect Dennis to make it all the way through to Rome.

That was my first thought when they announced the team. But AFAIK Rogla and Dennis get along really well, so the motivation shouldn't be in question. Now I expect a lot from Tratnik, he has to be the best so far in the mountains.

 

[Nick2413]

What are the scenarios in which Roglic could lose due to his team's (supposedly weak) support? In 90% of the time, they will be teaming up with Quickstep, because they have a joint goal. A dangerous break? Quickstep will join the effort. If Ineos go full guerilla, both Jumbo and Quickstep need to manage the situation and can share the load. So when do people here expect Jumbo to be "outplayed" due to a lack of team depth/strength? The only possible scenario i can think of is when in the final Evenepoel goes hard... so what, nobody other than Roglic himself is going to be following him anyway, regardless of them bringing a different squad. In case he has a weak moment and needs someone by his side, there will be Kuss. So when? In case of echelons you could argue he is better off with Van Emden than with Gloag or even Kelderman. I'm just not seeing a lot of issues. By the time the fireworks start between the big boys, it will be a select group anyway.

You’re right, forget teams, obviously Jumbo have messed up by even bothering replacing the I’ll riders.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Core of the team is in my opinion strong. If they are motivated and in good form. Considering the third week it wouldn't hurt to have an additional and experienced climber in the roster. That would be my only objection.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You’re right, forget teams, obviously Jumbo have messed up by even bothering replacing the I’ll riders.

Feel free to give an example of a scenario where Foss being in the squad instead of Van Emden, would make any kind of difference.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Never ceases to amaze me how some users can continuously invert reality just to fit their own prejudices.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Feel free to give an example of a scenario where Foss being in the squad instead of Van Emden, would make any kind of difference.

Foss would last a bit longer. Still it's more of a Dennis who replaced Foss. And here it depends. In what form Dennis is. He can ride and not being noticed or can blow QS out of the water. And as a side kick Ineos too.

We'll see.

 

[Nick2413]

Feel free to give an example of a scenario where Foss being in the squad instead of Van Emden, would make any kind of difference.

Foss is the TT World Champ and will ride minutes into Remco if him and Roglic ever break free. All he needs is 10k and the race will be done.

 

[Netserk]

Feel free to give an example of a scenario where Foss being in the squad instead of Van Emden, would make any kind of difference.

To set pace towards Tre Cime.

 

[Bonimenier]

To set pace towards Tre Cime.

Foss wouldn't have made it over passo Giau though.

 

[Netserk]

Foss wouldn't have made it over passo Giau though.

There are climbs that could be paced hard before that.

 

[bNator]

Wow. ”Barging in”. That is a bizarrely telling statement.

Yes? What does it tell?

 

[Oldermanish]

I think Roglic will just have to bide his time. Evenepoel is probably going to be quite a bit stronger in the first half of the Giro. Roglic has to stay within striking distance and then opportunities will open up.

That's why you race for 3 weeks. Roglic's Tour loss in the last TT drove that point home to him, for sure.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

There are climbs that could be paced hard before that.

And Jumbo is the only team that would want to pace hard before a climb? I can think of at least 3 other teams that would and will do so in absence of Foss.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

So Dennis and van Emden, instead of Gesink and Foss.

If Dennis rides this Giro like he rode for TGH in 2020 Giro, he will be part of the lead group Roglic-Remco-Dennis in the mountain stages. But Dennis is an enigma, so you never know.

Van Emden is super reliable, still very strong, and a great replacement for Foss on the flats.

But clearly Gesink and Foss were planned to be part, so their replacements Dennis and van Emden might not be perfectly prepared.

But Covid is still an issue, and: Primoz has to ride 21 stages through Italy, in a three week bike race. Almost 3500 kms. On Italian roads, after half a year of winter. And he wants to win the GC. That all in itself is a complicated issue. I just hope he stays on the bike - and if he crashes, I hope it‘s nothing serious.

We remember Geraint Thomas in the Giro when he crashed over a water bottle. Top shape, and suddenly DNF.

David Moncoutie, being super strong physically, but not the best bike handler, disliked riding in Italy. Racing in Italy always is nervous, hectic, you meet partly poor or slippery roads, narrow villages, and so on. Not ideal for Primoz.

No patron like Cipo in Giro left. Plus, no riding „piano“ within the first 1-2 hours any more. Everyone risking everything for a Giro stage (= WT victory).

I just hope Primoz finishes this Giro. Then everything should be good…

 

[Netserk]

And Jumbo is the only team that would want to pace hard before a climb? I can think of at least 3 other teams that would and will do so in absence of Foss.

Who would pace it at the speed requested by Rogla?

But sure, you can pretend team depth in the mountains doesn’t matter for one of the favourites. Whatever suits you.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Now that van Emden has Covid, he‘ll be replaced by Oomen.

So Dennis and van Emden were thought to replace Gesink and Foss. Van Emden now positive for Covid, so Dennis and Oomen are in.

Oomen is still coming back from Covid from April himself, so his preparation wasn‘t great. Dennis was sick recently, and so couldn‘t ride Romandie; no great preparation, too…

Covid causes troubles for Primoz and team…

 

[bNator]

These are not troubles. It’s called level playing field… 😉

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Who would pace it at the speed requested by Rogla?

But sure, you can pretend team depth in the mountains doesn’t matter for one of the favourites. Whatever suits you.

Thanks. Because Foss would pace it at the speed requested by Roglic? So when Evenepoel wants a harder pace, he would just go "bummer, i wanted a harder pace, but Foss is already setting a slower pace, so what on earth can we do now"? Or do you want to pretend Foss is the guy that was going to be setting the pace higher than Van Wilder or Sivakov? I guess you can pretend that as well, whatever suits you.

 

[bNator]

Thanks. Because Foss would pace it at the speed requested by Roglic? So when Evenepoel wants a harder pace, he would just go "bummer, i wanted a harder pace, but Foss is already setting a slower pace, so what on earth can we do now"? Or do you want to pretend Foss is the guy that was going to be setting the pace higher than Van Wilder or Sivakov? I guess you can pretend that as well, whatever suits you.

Ok but it’s not the same if you control the pace or your rival team controls the pace. Surely you can’t be saying a team doesn’t need rouleurs because other have them anyway… As soon as the situation arises where Rogla needs the pace and Remco doesn’t (and there’s plenty of scenarios) Rogla will feel the consequences of these last minute changes.

It’s really weird we’re actually arguing about this…

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ok but it’s not the same if you control the pace or your rival team controls the pace. Surely you can’t be saying a team doesn’t need rouleurs because other have them anyway… As soon as the situation arises where Rogla needs the pace and Remco doesn’t (and there’s plenty of scenarios) Rogla will feel the consequences of these last minute changes.

It’s really weird we’re actually arguing about this…

How did Roglic win Catalunya, how did Pogacar win the 2020 Tour? Plenty of examples. There was another team taking control of the race, and all they had to do was follow. From the initial Giro team Jumbo announced, there are only two support riders that would make a real difference. Kelderman and Kuss. Kelderman has been out for months now, so they had ample time to find a solution for that or change their gameplan. The other is Kuss, and he's still there. Kelderman could genuinely have been a rider to get into the final with Roglic and do serious damage with a high pace, that could have put the entire Quickstep team in trouble. Foss however, is not that rider. As long as Roglic is able to make it to the final group of 20 riders along with Kuss, the addition of Gesink and Foss would be minimal, since their absence would simply put the responsibility to control the race, with QuickStep, UAE, Ineos... Gesink wouldn't make the final 20 riders, neither would Foss (or at least not with enough in the tank to mark moves or set a pace that puts rivals in trouble). And with other teams taking control, the actual importance of their absence should not be a deciding factor for Roglic.

As i said, there are scenario's like getting caught behind a crash or in echelons. But when Roglic genuinely gets dropped, those guys would be gone anyway. And when he wants to attack on the final climb, they would as well. The only real problem is if Roglic takes pink early and his "mediocre" team has to start working hard for 3 weeks straight.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's hard to say what form they are in but Oomen instead of van Emden doesn't sound that bad. That is strengthening the climbers section a bit.

As for on why you need your team. Obviously not for the team to beat Remco. For that they have Rogla. But all the other little things. Like dropping QS if desired and to isolate Remco. Or like keeping the pace high enough for bonus seconds to be in reach. If needed. Obviously it's a team sport and with weak team your chanced for overall decreases. Being able to utilize different teams and riders. That comes more down to luck. Not something you can control all that much. It's still your team you relay on the most.

P.S. At TDF 2020 Pogi had JV. A rather strong team. If you ask me. On other races Pogi utilizes his team on numerous occasions. To prepare the terrain for his attack. Around stage 13 of this Giro edition. We should see if the team does make any difference or not.

 

[RedheadDane]

Fun fact: The 2020 Tour is the last GT he has finished without winning the GC.
Not-so-fun fact: Because he has abandonded 3 out of 5 started GTs since then.

Guess he's gonna either crash out, or win.

 

[Red Rick]

Fun fact: The 2020 Tour is the last GT he has finished without winning.
Not-so-fun fact: Because he has abandonded 3 out of 5 started GTs since then.

Guess he's gonna either crash out, or win.

He won stage 4 of that TdF.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

He won stage 4 of that TdF.

Didn‘t know you were so pedantic.