Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[red_flanders]

He was right there. I would have expected him to win this kind of stage. My read is that the guy with the most power left in the tank took the sprint. The others were at the limit, Remco just had a bit more.

Roglič is good. Early shots fired today, fun to watch and discuss, but nothing happened in the race today except Remco gained some confidence...and embarrassed himself.

 

[JosefK]

Well 11 seconds, right? But no, not a catastrophe.

Sure, when the bonus seconds get thrown in, but just one second on the road. ... While the result on this stage was actually pretty good, I'm a little more worried about the injury. If it's his knee, I assume he would have had an x-ray or MRI done if the pain was really bad. But he's ridden with hairline fractures before. If that's the case with the knee (kneecap), it won't get better with coming stages. ... Note that I'm an old dude with a wandering mind and really have no idea what I'm talking about.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

He certainly looked pretty sharp closing down Vingegaard/Ayuso with Evenepoel on his wheel tbf. Today just down to poor positioning I think, the three ahead are elite and even someone of his pedigree in this type of finish you can't make the slightest of errors against this opponent.

The call on the road at that point should've been for Vingegaard to work with Ayuso.

In regard to the image here, Naichaca or whatever his name is really revealed his bias here. I rewatched the last 5km of the stage thinking I missed something. Almost missed it again because it happens that fast. There’s daylight between Vingegaard and Roglic for a split second. The dude acts like Vingegaard went clear and Roglic dragged everyone back to him. The group never even really fractured, just stretched for a second.

Anyways, I thought Roglic looked fine, but whether it was his crash, his positioning, or just lack of legs, he didn’t deliver like he usually does. Remco looked great so I wouldn’t say he *should* have beaten him, but he wasn’t where’d you’d expect normally.

 

[Gargamel35]

He wasn't suffering. He felt pain (muscle pain all over body) but it's expected to be better every day.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So far i would say Remco is taking good advantage of it, when it comes to JV double leaders strategy. Taking seconds here and there, while JV leaders still fighting to establish the hierarchy. For example on stage 3. Rogla should then go all out and to try to stomp both Remco and Jonas? In my opinion that would look rather bad. For JV. Better to follow the best for now and for the leader hierarchy situation to sort itself out first.

 

[cen]

Rogla stomping both Remco and Jonas would look bad for JV? You are heading into 4D chess territory here, if he had the legs he would simply destroy everyone in the sprint like he did it countless other times in previous Vueltas.

 

[Berniece]

So far i would say Remco is taking good advantage of it, when it comes to JV double leaders strategy. Taking seconds here and there, while JV leaders still fighting to establish the hierarchy. For example on stage 3. Rogla should then go all out and to try to stomp both Remco and Jonas? In my opinion that would look rather bad. For JV. Better to follow the best for now and for the leader hierarchy situation to sort itself out first.

Vingegaard didn't have the legs, Roglic fell the day before. They are happy no one made a move and finished with the bunch. I don't expect much from JV until stage 13 and 14.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I am sure that if Jonas would do a proper lead-out then Rogla would at least try. Fighting Jonas instead and trying to beat him, to even get to Evenepoel, for potentially gaining a couple of seconds, while already being down more then half a minute. Meh. No real prestige involved, not gonna resolve the hierarchy issue and won't win this race. Just a lot of wasted effort if you ask me.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Rogla stomping both Remco and Jonas would look bad for JV? You are heading into tic-tac-toe territory here, if he had the legs he would simply destroy everyone in the sprint like he did it countless other times in previous Vueltas.

 

[CyclistAbi]

What one needs to understand is JV already blew it. That is for the strategy where they are fighting for bonus seconds to work. Too much behind already and there is still ITT involved. So to crack Remco both Rogla and Jonas will have to go on a limb on some stage. One of them likely winning this Vuetla as a result. That is if both will be prepared to lose. If that won't happen maybe Rogla to win this Vuelta edition on stage 20. Instad of doing Il Lombardia this season. To combine a bit of stage racing and classics after all. We'll see.

 

[Rackham]

What one needs to understand is JV already blew it. That is for the strategy where they are fighting for bonus seconds to work. Too much behind already and there is still ITT involved. So to crack Remco both Rogla and Jonas will have to go on a limb on some stage. One of them likely winning this Vuetla as a result. That is if both will be prepared to lose. If that won't happen maybe Rogla to win this Vuelta edition on stage 20. Instad of doing Il Lombardia this season. To combine a bit of stage racing and classics after all. We'll see.

Jumbo is doing what Jumbo does in GT's these days: keep a low profile, tag along, do the bare minimum... until they unleash the mega watts.

Roglič did that in the 2021 Vuelta & the Giro (aka the last two GT's he's won) & Jonas Vingegaard did it in both TdF's he won. It's standard procedure for them IMO.

Yesterday was a nothing burger, a skirmish, an easy climb. It says nothing regarding where Jumbo's two leaders will be in two weeks time. I'm not downplaying Evenepoel's win here either (he was strong), it's just considering what's coming in this Vuelta I don't see any reason to start psychoanalysing Jumbo's tactics or rider form yet. Certainly based on the aforementioned antecedents (i.e. their successful GT victories for both Vinge & Rog which were built on strong performances in week 3).

 

[Elos Anjos]

Jumbo is doing what Jumbo does in GT's these days: keep a low profile, tag along, do the bare minimum... until they unleash the mega watts.

Roglič did that in the 2021 Vuelta & the Giro (aka the last two GT's he's won) & Jonas Vingegaard did it in both TdF's he won. It's standard procedure for them IMO.

Yesterday was a nothing burger, a skirmish, an easy climb. It says nothing regarding where Jumbo's two leaders will be in two weeks time. I'm not downplaying Evenepoel's win here either (he was strong), it's just considering what's coming in this Vuelta I don't see any reason to start psychoanalysing Jumbo's tactics or rider form yet. Certainly based on the aforementioned antecedents (i.e. their successful GT victories for both Vinge & Rog which were built on strong performances in week 3).

This is a more reasonable take. I reckon there are users reading too much in terms of tactics and what riders doing. It's like riders are supposedely and constantly facing and designing a very intricate plan that only some users can fathom. Things are much more simple.

 

[bNator]

To me, it was abundantly clear Roglic was not even trying to sprint yesterday. That could be down to several reasons:
1. Didn't have the legs and knew he wouldn't succeed so why bother. I don't find this one particularly convincing since Roglič always has the legs for the final sprint even if he's on a bad day. Once he gets to the final km together with the other - even if he looks half dead by then - he sprints (and usually wins).
2. Didn't go for it as a precaution due to injury
3. Tactics of Roglic/Vinger alternately harrasing their oponents and tiring them out.
4. Bad positioning.

What I think happened is they (JV & Rog) just decided for Roglic to sit this one out since he is slighlty injured and they have Vinge anyway...

 

[303pbmf]

You really think any rider comes to 300m of the finish line with a chance to win just goes and decides to not sprint when they have the legs?

 

[Rackham]

Primoz Roglic draagt gevolgen van valpartij: "Ik heb wel wat last"

Primoz Roglic heeft nog last van zijn valpartij op de tweede dag van de Vuelta a España. De renner van Jumbo-Visma vertelde na afloop van de eerste bergrit aan de Sloveense media dat hij blij was dat hij de favorieten kon volgen. “Het zal wel beteren.” 1 aug Lees nu Neem een abonnement op RIDE […]

www.wielerflits.nl

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696238211213750518

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[cen]

This is just classic Rog speak, always in pain until he destroys the competition one day. Thomas described it perfectly back in the day, I don't trust any of it .

 

[Rackham]

This is just classic Rog speak, always in pain until he destroys the competition one day. Thomas described it perfectly back in the day, I don't trust any of it .

I suppose we can only "guess" based on body language & his attitude.

In the TdF 2022 he looked depressed as hell after the cobbled stage. Here he looks totally relax. Rog's crash won't be the last GC contender crash either. So it's probably good to get that one done on the first weekend so he has his legs back in the second & third week.

I mean crashing before the Angliru (for example)... could have problematic consequences.

 

[KZD]

What one needs to understand is JV already blew it. That is for the strategy where they are fighting for bonus seconds to work. Too much behind already and there is still ITT involved. So to crack Remco both Rogla and Jonas will have to go on a limb on some stage. One of them likely winning this Vuetla as a result. That is if both will be prepared to lose. If that won't happen maybe Rogla to win this Vuelta edition on stage 20. Instad of doing Il Lombardia this season. To combine a bit of stage racing and classics after all. We'll see.

You didn't seem to have learn from last year's Tour. Pogačar had a similar advantage on Vingegård before the multi-mountain stages came and look what happened.

Even if Remco gets a minute buffer on Vingegård and 1:15 minutes on Roglič after the TT and this would assume none of them cracks on one of the MTF's still to come this week and Remco brings his A-game to the TT, Jumbo would still be the favourites to win the race, as Vingegård and Roglič could throw attacks on Remco until he cracks in one of the hardest stages. Of course on this scenario I favour Vingegård over Roglič.

 

[HelloDolly]

Everything will be sorted with luck and overall form

Roglic at present is in the middle ...He doesnt seem as fast to the line in the shorter steep climbs as Remco and no way will he be better than a flying Vinge in the long mountain stages (no one is)

So he needs to bide his time . Third week Vinge may not be there. The hard Tour may begin to bite ?

And high long mountain Remco may not be there. The Angryloo may claim the angry man

Roglic needs to stay in contention and bide his time

 

[Berniece]

Jumbo would still be the favourites to win the race, as Vingegård and Roglič could throw attacks on Remco until he cracks in one of the hardest stages. Of course on this scenario I favour Vingegård over Roglič.

That assumes that Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel are at the same level, AND above all the other riders. If one of the JV riders isn't as good as the other this already doesn't work until someone wants to throw away his chances of winning the Vuelta. If Mas, Ayuso, are equally as good, they'll help close the gap too. If Evenepoel is just better than both riders, he'll just ride away from them.

The reason why this worked on Pogacar in the TDF was because Roglic just gave it all until he was completely done, where Pogacar thought he was actually as good as himself.

 

[bNator]

You really think any rider comes to 300m of the finish line with a chance to win just goes and decides to not sprint when they have the legs?

Yes - if you choose to ignore all of the circumstances that I listed, the claim does look rather silly, doesn't it?

To be clear - I really think a rider can come 300m of the finish line with a chance to win and have the legs and decide not to sprint, provided he has a good reason for that. One of them being trying to take care of his knee and avoid provoking any exacerbation of his (slight) injury.

 

[KZD]

That assumes that Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel are at the same level, AND above all the other riders. If one of the JV riders isn't as good as the other this already doesn't work until someone wants to throw away his chances of winning the Vuelta. If Mas, Ayuso, are equally as good, they'll help close the gap too. If Evenepoel is just better than both riders, he'll just ride away from them.

The reason why this worked on Pogacar in the TDF was because Roglic just gave it all until he was completely done, where Pogacar thought he was actually as good as himself.

The thing is that unlike Pogačar, Remco would actually need to react to both Vingegård and Roglič unless one of them loses a significant amount of time by the time Tourmalet arrives and while an Ayuso and Mas can help Remco by chasing down the Jumbo riders they are also likely to attack Remco.

While I think Remco has a reasonably good chance of winning the Vuelta, riding away from the Jumbo duo like you suggest, especially Vingegård is going to be really difficult based on recent Grand Tour history. His biggest chance to win is just try to follow them and then if possible trying to gain a few seconds at the line but its going to be a big challenge anyway.

 

[bNator]

The thing is that unlike Pogačar, Remco would actually need to react to both Vingegård and Roglič unless one of them loses a significant amount of time by the time Tourmalet arrives and while an Ayuso and Mas can help Remco by chasing down the Jumbo riders they are also likely to attack Remco.

While I think Remco has a reasonably good chance of winning the Vuelta, riding away from the Jumbo duo like you suggest, especially Vingegård is going to be really difficult based on recent Grand Tour history. His biggest chance to win is just try to follow them and then if possible trying to gain a few seconds at the line but its going to be a big challenge anyway.

I think that would be very difficult for Remco provided both Roglic and Vingegaard are in form even if he is slighlty better than the two. Once Rogla-Vinge start anternatly attacking Remco, he would have to be really strong to be able to follow them long-term. I think Remco's best bet is to do a semi-long range attack and hope he can somehow get rid of those two. But that will only work if he is stornger, of course... If he is equal (or weaker), I don't think he has much chances either way due to TJV tactical advantage of two leaders.

 

[CyclistAbi]

In my opinion Roglič wouldn't mind being closer. One stomp away from leaders jersey. Now trying to stomp to get to there. Too much effort involved. He would need like 10 perfect stomps ... And would end up losing the overall as result. Not going to happen.

So now he is in position that likely suits Jonas a bit more. But then again maybe Jonas will struggle with Remco accelerations. Rogla can cope with that just fine and for Jonas we don't have much data suggesting one or another. We'll see.

All in all long way to go. Today, stage 4, Rogla did what he needed to do. Stay on the bike and follow. For more. We will think about that in a week or two.

 

[CyclistAbi]

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This time not the mur but mural. Rogla enjoying some holiday time by visiting an outdoor museum. Dressed up casual.