I am not saying I think Roglic would have won this year’s Tour (I don’t), but if he’d been on a different, equally strong team than Vingegaard. I think he would have won. He would have been ahead by well over a minute after the first week and just needed to follow. As we say on Angliru, he was more than capable. Given that ride and how hard he closed on Tourmalet in the last 1km, I don’t see any way Roglic would have lost this Vuelta.
To be fair, some of that is because Vingegaard came in a little undercooked, had GI issues, and dropped a chain on the TTT.
But if everything played out the exact same only they were on different teams, I think Roglic wins by 1-2 minutes.