Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[UndergroundResistance]

Regarding his giro result.. First of all both Roglic and even more so Nibali made a tactical mistake on Courmayeur stage when they let Carapaz go. Lack of team support and "peegate" with crash on top of it also didn't help, but his biggest problem was some kind of an illness.

Here is a quote from an interview with his dad after the race (gtranslate, so bear with me):
Q: I think it hurt his stomach even more than his ribs. If you eat and you don't keep anything inside, your body shires, you don't get energy, that was the worst thing.

I am not at all trying to downplay what Carapaz and Nibali achieved as placement at the end of the race is the only thing that matter of course. But at least from my point of view, without illness he'd atleast be in contention for the win till the end.

 

[Rollthedice]

It's all done an dusted. Carapaz won, Nibali got his 11th podium and Roglic his first. He progressed to his first win in the Vuelta and now the hardest part starts, stepping up to multiple GT winner status.

 

[Oldermanish]

The two factors stopping Roglic winning the Giro were Carapaz and Nibali. Apart from the TT he was humbled by Nibali uphill with roughly 3 minutes and by Carapaz with a whopping 6 minutes. I don't buy the peaking too early stuff, he's proven to be good in all the races but he wasn't good enough to win the Giro. The crash? Well if you want to follow Nibali downhill you gotta be careful. Ask Kruijswik.

Roglic can descend. Ask DuMoulin and Froome after chasing him downhill and losing a buttload of time in the Tour. His team management didn't help him much in the Giro with the miscues; a credit to him for not complaining about it and getting better support this time around.

 

[Lequack]

I read from some source that he asked for better support this Vuelta and then aafter seeing they really had a strong team he signed the extension finally.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Anyway, Roglič now has a GT win. From GT races perspective, TDF 2020 and Roglič going after the GC win. That is likely next on the GT list. Looking forward to that and good luck! Stay healthy, prepare good, team will hopefully follow and be able to sustain such ambitions. I am only a cycling fan, that will watch TDF 2020 on the TV, but still will likely have hard time sustaining it!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I read from some source that he asked for better support this Vuelta and then aafter seeing they really had a strong team he signed the extension finally.

Interesting. I would not be surprised if that were true.

His Giro support was laughable apart from De Plus. It bordered on disrespect IMO

 

[dastott]

I like his attitude also - he enters races to win not to be pack fodder or for training. Just like Sky in their early days with Wiggins and Froome, and today with Bernal seemingly. Will be interesting to see if that approach changes now that Roglic has a GT win and will likely target the TdF.

 

[topt]

OK, so where does Roglic go from here? What's really interesting about him is that his upward progression is really linear. You can't yet point to a year, or even really a race, where he went backward.
He didn't have a huge amount of difficulty winning the Vuelta, against the weakest field in all 3 GTs this year. However, he fought through adversity, including two major crashes that cost him probably the two best JV teammates (Martin and Kruijswijk), survived a crosswinds split and even Movistar's dastardly (i kid, just a little) tactics. He showed no weakness in the mountains and dominated his rivals in the ITT. If not for a semi-disaster in the TTT he'd have won by 4 minutes, if not more, b/c he'd have had SK in the mountains.

IMO, he has to be focused on the Tour next year and skip the Giro, although I'm still not convinced that Dumoulin in top shape isn't a better GT contender. However, we have no idea if Tom will be 100 percent next year, and JV's stated goal is to win the Tour de France, so they should be designated co-leaders and the plan from the beginning of the year should be to have them peak in July. Let Kruijswijk lead the team in the Giro and give him Bennett and Kuss, save De Plus and Martin for the tour. JV will need all the firepower they have against Ineos.

It may very well be that Dumoulin is stronger, and in that case Roglic should work for him, sacrifice his GC place and then go to the Vuelta. That's a lot to ask, but Roglic has apparently agreed to stay with JV till 2023, so he may just have to bite the bullet next July.

If he agreed to that I would be very disapointed in him

 

[topt]

He couldn´t follow Nibali and Carapaz on the most difficult stages. I think the chances are higher that he finishes outside of the top 3 if the Gavia isn´t cancelled. The Vuelta was a better fit for him. Shorter climbs and no altitude.
I don´t know if his form was any worse in may considering that his TT performances were impressive but he simply lacked the engine on the longer climbs. The level of competition was better and his team was weaker. Maybe a better team could have helped him to limit the loses in the mountains but in this case I think Nibali is the more likely winner because he wouldn´t lose as much time in the early mountain stages as well.

he didnt lack the engine, he just got very tired as seen in the last TT in Giro; It was a tactial mistake in training as he was to hot at the start

 

[topt]

With Vuelta shape and team Primož wins the Giro. He would lose little to no time to Carapaz on the stage Richard won (the one where they gifted him two minutes by looking at each other), because at least two helpers woould be there working and would bring those 20 seconds back. And he would lose much less on the Mortirolo stage with two helpers pushing on the last climb (with this form he probably wouldn't get dropped in the first place). The point is, Rogla in Vuelta form would not be dropping 3 minutes to Nibali, much less 6 minutes to Carapaz.

He looked totaly spent there from the first mountain stage onward. He lost a whole lot of weight due to stomach issues. The clear sign of him being on the limit is when he starts showing teeth while climbing. Never saw that in the Vuelta. In the Giro he did it every single mountain stage. By the last stage he lloked like he came out of a concentration camp.

And considering the Tour. Kruiswijk was 1 and a half minute behind Bernal in the end. I think Roglič would get close (he would be at least a minute ahead of Steven in the ITT alone).

this and I wouldnt even say close I would say before Bernal; Rogla is better climber than Steven

 

[topt]

Strongly suspecting no TTT in next year's Tour.

that would really suck; Jumbo can take 2 min

 

[topt]

The two factors stopping Roglic winning the Giro were Carapaz and Nibali. Apart from the TT he was humbled by Nibali uphill with roughly 3 minutes and by Carapaz with a whopping 6 minutes. I don't buy the peaking too early stuff, he's proven to be good in all the races but he wasn't good enough to win the Giro. The crash? Well if you want to follow Nibali downhill you gotta be careful. Ask Kruijswik.

or at least have your own bike

 

[skippo12]

this and I wouldnt even say close I would say before Bernal; Rogla is better climber than Steven

I think Roglics climbing ability is similar to Valverdes. Really good on short climbs and no altitude climbs. Prefers single mountain stages over multiple HC/Cat 1 stages. Still good but not among the very best on longer or high altitude climbs. The Vuelta course was tailor made for him and Valverde and the climbs are not comparable to the climbs that are featured on the queen stages in italy (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, Stelvio, Gavia) or france (Izoard, Tourmalet, Galibier, Agnel).

 

[topt]

I think Roglics climbing ability is similar to Valverdes. Really good on short climbs and no altitude climbs. Prefers single mountain stages over multiple HC/Cat 1 stages. Still good but not among the very best on longer or high altitude climbs. The Vuelta course was tailor made for him and Valverde and the climbs are not comparable to the climbs that are featured on the queen stages in italy (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, Stelvio, Gavia) or france (Izoard, Tourmalet, Galibier, Agnel).

he is better climber than Kruiswijk thats for sure and you are selling him short, he won the queen stages in 2017 and 18 tour, the only proof you have that he is not good enough on long high altitude climbs is the Giro and I think there were differnet reasons for that average performance.

 

[Lequack]

They erected this in his hometown

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglič wasn't healthy in the last week of Giro 2019. Ignoring that fact and arguing what his climbing abilities are or are not, compared to other riders, and based on his Giro 2019 performance in week 3, that is in my opinion a waste of time. Unless we want to compare one rider that is healthy to another one that is not. In that case indeed, the rider that isn't healthy usually lags behind the healthy one, when it comes to climbing. What we have therefore established is Roglič is good, but he needs to stay healthy, to win a Giro. In the end that is common sense and doesn't really need any in depth discussions.

 

[skippo12]

Roglič wasn't healthy in the last week of Giro 2019. Ignoring that fact and arguing what his climbing abilities are or are not, compared to other riders, and based on his Giro 2019 performance in week 3, that is in my opinion a waste of time. Unless we want to compare one rider that is healthy to another one that is not. In that case indeed, the rider that isn't healthy usually lags behind the healthy one, when it comes to climbing. What we have therefore established is Roglič is good, but he needs to stay healthy, to win a Giro. In the end that is common sense and doesn't really need any in depth discussions.

Was he really that much better in the Vuelta or was the competition simply worse? I´d take Carapaz, Landa and Nibali over any of the top 5 of this years Vuelta.
I think at his best he can compete for any GT podium but I am hesitant to crown him as the top GC guy in the world.
His Giro performance is hard to judge. His fans are pointing out the illness and the early peak. Others will point out that he was dominant in the first two TT but failed to deliver in the mountains (losing 6 minutes to Carapaz and 3 to Nibali).
I think what we have established is that Roglic belongs among the best of the GT riders. The question is if he is good enough to beat them head to head. That´s also the relevant question for Jumbo because they have to make some difficult decisions next year.

 

[Lequack]

Was he really that much better in the Vuelta or was the competition simply worse? I´d take Carapaz, Landa and Nibali over any of the top 5 of this years Vuelta.
I think at his best he can compete for any GT podium but I am hesitant to crown him as the top GC guy in the world.
His Giro performance is hard to judge. His fans are pointing out the illness and the early peak. Others will point out that he was dominant in the first two TT but failed to deliver in the mountains (losing 6 minutes to Carapaz and 3 to Nibali).
I think what we have established is that Roglic belongs among the best of the GT riders. The question is if he is good enough to beat them head to head. That´s also the relevant question for Jumbo because they have to make some difficult decisions next year.

I posted this in the Rate the Vuelta thread, but maybe it fits in here too, just for comparing Giro/Vuelta performance

 

[CyclistAbi]

Was he really that much better in the Vuelta or was the competition simply worse? I´d take Carapaz, Landa and Nibali over any of the top 5 of this years Vuelta.
I think at his best he can compete for any GT podium but I am hesitant to crown him as the top GC guy in the world.
His Giro performance is hard to judge. His fans are pointing out the illness and the early peak. Others will point out that he was dominant in the first two TT but failed to deliver in the mountains (losing 6 minutes to Carapaz and 3 to Nibali).

On Giro Roglič crashed and got rib/chest pains, when breathing. In addition and due to malnutrition, he had issues with his stomach, no appetite. On top of that he was more or less isolated through the whole Giro. Now i don't know if this counts as a fan talk? This things need to be taken into consideration. On Vuelta he had better team support and was healthy. For example, i read somewhere, on how TJV is now investing much effort in understanding proper nutrition.

I think what we have established is that Roglic belongs among the best of the GT riders. The question is if he is good enough to beat them head to head. That´s also the relevant question for Jumbo because they have to make some difficult decisions next year.

In my opinion TJV doesn't have all that difficult decisions. Roglič should compete on TDF 2020 and go after the overall win. His team needs to support that, by doing everything possible in achieving that. This scenario was more or less known for a while now. Kruijswijk got his chance on TDF 2019 and Dumoulin knee injury will likely prevent him to be in best condition, by the time TDF 2020 starts. Therefore if Roglič stays healthy and gets optimally prepared, there are really no all that hard decisions to be made.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Surely TD will be ready for the 2020 Tour? that is a long way away. Still, I'm sure Rog will be going there to win (even if TD goes too).

TD seems to like the Giro more anyway!

 

[topt]

Was he really that much better in the Vuelta or was the competition simply worse? I´d take Carapaz, Landa and Nibali over any of the top 5 of this years Vuelta.
I think at his best he can compete for any GT podium but I am hesitant to crown him as the top GC guy in the world.
His Giro performance is hard to judge. His fans are pointing out the illness and the early peak. Others will point out that he was dominant in the first two TT but failed to deliver in the mountains (losing 6 minutes to Carapaz and 3 to Nibali).
I think what we have established is that Roglic belongs among the best of the GT riders. The question is if he is good enough to beat them head to head. That´s also the relevant question for Jumbo because they have to make some difficult decisions next year.

so why wasnt he dominant in the third ? it kind of proves our point doesnt it

 

[topt]

I read from some source that he asked for better support this Vuelta and then aafter seeing they really had a strong team he signed the extension finally.

the support was better but still Kruiswijk had better in the Tour

 

[Lequack]

Roglic is doing all three races in the Worlds next week. Mixed TTT, indicidual TT and the road race.

 

[Carols]

Roglic is doing all three races in the Worlds next week. Mixed TTT, indicidual TT and the road race.

I hope he comes home with a medal, preferably Gold

 

[CyclistAbi]

Surely TD will be ready for the 2020 Tour?

Hopefully yes. But likely the rehabilitation and path to full recovery will still take a couple of months. At least that is the impression i got, reading the related news. From this point of view maybe the main goals for the next season will be to have Kruijswijk for Giro, Roglič for TDF and Dumoulin for Vuelta. Who knows, best to wait and see.

TD seems to like the Giro more anyway!

I feel that there is enough GT races, to keep them all motivated, for a couple of seasons.