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It's just... if anybody would ask me "Is there any way Mas will ever win a Vuelta?" my answer would be "Sure, if Roglic crashes out"
Yeah, he also looked untroubled to me. He emphatically won the race de facto on Ancares, and now he can hang back and monitor the situation, minimising risks. He has been the most aggressive contender in at least 5 stages and it has paid off. Another stage win would be nice, but he is not in a position where he needs to force anything.
I don’t see where he is weaker except perhaps compared to 2021 edition. He is definitely stronger than 2020 and 2022 editions. I think he’s on par with 2019 edition and as per 2023 he certainly looks stronger now but we’ll never know how much he held back those stages before Angliru. If he doesn’t get dropped in the remaining 2 mountain stages, then the way I see it, this will be at least his second strongest performance so far…
Roglic didn't look particularly stronger during the 2023 Giro d'Italia, apart from Lussari.
My reasoning for 2019 Vuelta was that he looked quite vulnerable on some stages in the beginning of the race. Observatorio and Andorra stages come to mind… on the other hand, he had a really awesome TT that year and stage where he went with Pog was Great as well…
I think that's it in a nutshell. He doesn't need any more time on anyone to win it in the time trial. Besides he heard a lot of the haters here were visibly suffering with the lack of Roglic wheelsucking so he is trying to lessen their burden. That's just the kind of guy Primos is, a giver.
I don't feel he's stronger compared to how he was riding at the Tour this year for example, or Vuelta last year
We didn't see anything from him in the Tour. We don't know how good he was in the high mountains.
I mostly agree we didn’t see enough from him to assess. He was clearly getting better as the Tour progressed however, which fit his stated strategy to peak in the third week. I think it’s likely that he is correct in saying that the first two places were out of reach but he would have battled Remco for third. Impossible to know though. And tough to compare Ancares with the only time we saw anything from him in the Tour: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2024/stage-11
We had small tastes. Was a downhill finish but Roglic finished with Remco and Ayuso and ahead of Vingegaard on the Galibier stage 4. There was also stage 11 and his TT on stage 7 suggests he was on near to top form.
He struggled to follow Almeida and Ayuso on Galibier. That performance was not a good indicator at all.
You make it sound like Vinegaard finished with Almeida and Landa or worse on stage 4. Roglic was struggling on the climb but looked to be getting better every stage. Definitely would have given Evenepoel a run for his money for third.
If he would make that same mistake again I'd be livid.
I agree with this approach. However I would kindly remind Roglic that he has already once falsely believed he had enough advantage and doesn't need to drop Pog over the top of the last mountain stage when he could have gone for it at virtually zero cost (Pog already dropped & Wout in the back group with Pog). If the chance presents itself, then go for it!
Considering his interrupted schedule this season due to several debilitating crashes it's difficult to compare season performances. I'd say he's just now getting up to speed again and has been fairly conservative about how deeply he commits.
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