Agreed that Roglic will probably win the whole thing, but with Rog one can never be sure how the story will unfold. Most likely something like this: Rog and Mas duel evenly up to stage 20, when Mas puts in an attack and gaps Roglic, whose chain comes off just as he is responding. Attempting to put the chain back on, Rog is knocked over by a goat that has gotten loose, and the handlebars of the bike get snagged in the goat's collar. The animal drags the bike away and Rog has to wait for the team car to come up for a bike change. Rog rides the spare bike to the finish and loses two minutes to Mas. Next day, Rog puts 41 seconds into Mas in the TT and wins the overall by 1 second.