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Unterlenkerfahrend

Unterlenkerfahrend

Jun 11, 2021
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Red Rick said:
Hautacam was mainly Lipowitz trying to drop Onley and then waiting for Roglic to come back which ultimately cracked Roglic entirely.

Today I'm not entirely sure if Roglic was riding ahead of them for a while or if they were doing 1-2s because in the one shot we got after Van Dijke was done pulling it appeared to be Lipowitz and Onley alone, which is why I assumed Roglic was dropped.

Onley's Strava file does show like 11 spikes over 600W, but some are a bit short so I don't think it's literally 11 full attacks, and that's all in about 2.5km to Chalet Reynard after Vingegaard attacked. After that we only saw them on the display with the gap to 'Group Lipowitz' and then only in the finale did it become "Lipowitz" so I think Lipowitz rode away from Onley in the final 2km and Roglic had been riding in front of that.
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Yeah, Lipowitz confirmed in the interview after the stage that they tried to work over Onley and after Van Dijke was done, Roglics attack was the first one to really get away. So he sat on Onley for a while and then attacked/bridged up to Roglic in the last 2km. So the timer of Roglic being 15-20s ahead at some point seemed to be correct.
I guess once Lipo reached Roglic the latter probably pulled for the last kilometer as it was headwind and Lipowitz was probably slightly cooked from the bridge.

I think for Roglic much will depent on if his base is still problematic and he'll suffer disproportionally at these 4000+m elevation stages again - then I don't see much happening in the upcoming stages and he'll probably stay in 5th.
If however, he really has ridden himself into this race and without crashes now managed to adapt to the strain, I definitely could see him overtaking Onley and there is still the chance that Lipowitz will start to drop in form after being at this high level for 2 months now.
 
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CyclistAbi

May 29, 2019
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Hard to say on what to expect next, as i doubt Rogla would directly attack Lipo for third and if Lipo would to struggle then likely plan A would be to try to mitigate first. Lets assume that RBH is now rather confident and for Lipo to manage his own, Rogla to go in a breakaway and win a stage. UAE and Visma IMHO not interested in chasing him, some other team might, try, but good luck with that. Or i guess to stay together and just max out day in day out, as team. After all it seem that Denk gets to keep his job and the morale should be high, not only for this but for the next season too. We'll see.
 
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Oldman

Jun 19, 2009
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CyclistAbi said:
Well, at this point i feel that the most sensible strategy would be to attack the aliens directly. Rogla and Lipo can use the numbers on them. We'll see.
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I'd say your previous post has better possibilities to improve Roglic's position. Lipowitz can help but not at the risk of blowing up and losing his to someone down the contender risk just to have Roglic take it. If either can compete for a stage that'd be target #1, improve Roglic's GC as #2. Both RBH riders should find that agreeable and should only abandon it if someone attacks Roglic's position on their way to unseating Lipowitz, too. Option 3 would be an open door created by either Pogacar or Vindegaard having the absolute worst day. I wouldn't get up tomorrow morning with that being the prime plan, though.
All in all the team is finishing well but far from done. Primoz might be most resilient.
 
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VayaVayaVaya

Jun 1, 2015
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Well...

At least he featured, though so early (where I am) I didn't get to catch it. He looked very casual at the end of the stage, which was odd since Onley was riding away from him and he also wasn't pacing Lipowitz. I can only assume he was at his limit despite how he looked, otherwise it makes no sense.

The only realistic offensive outcomes for them today were: 1) Rog passes Onley to move into 4th; 2) Rog or Lipo win the stage. A defensive outcome would be Lipo staying ahead of Onley and Rog not losing any time to Onley.

Given that, Rog should have gone with BOC to see if Pog and Vinge would chase. If that got brought back and Lipo came back, as he did, they then should have paced to keep Onley behind. The only way Lipowitz's attach could haver made sense was if he had monster legs and thought he could stay away and chase down BOC for the stage win. But he'd just ridden solo for dozens of kilometers and, as we saw, he did not have the legs, so that made no sense.
 
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Oldman

Jun 19, 2009
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He probably would've preferred Ben waited until he was done peeing to attack. He was on the road's edge when O'Connor jumped between him and the group. For the amount of effort put out by both guys Lipowitz may have wasted most of his.
VayaVayaVaya said:
Well...

At least he featured, though so early (where I am) I didn't get to catch it. He looked very casual at the end of the stage, which was odd since Onley was riding away from him and he also wasn't pacing Lipowitz. I can only assume he was at his limit despite how he looked, otherwise it makes no sense.

The only realistic offensive outcomes for them today were: 1) Rog passes Onley to move into 4th; 2) Rog or Lipo win the stage. A defensive outcome would be Lipo staying ahead of Onley and Rog not losing any time to Onley.

Given that, Rog should have gone with BOC to see if Pog and Vinge would chase. If that got brought back and Lipo came back, as he did, they then should have paced to keep Onley behind. The only way Lipowitz's attach could haver made sense was if he had monster legs and thought he could stay away and chase down BOC for the stage win. But he'd just ridden solo for dozens of kilometers and, as we saw, he did not have the legs, so that made no sense.
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benzwire

benzwire

Jul 27, 2010
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If Lipowitz has a bad day tomorrow, I think/hope Roglic can have a great day and put time into Onley. For the team, I guess it only matters where Lipo is in relation to Onlay as the podium and the white jersey are on the line. Only 22 seconds between Lipo and Onley. I think the best bet will be for Roglic to help Lipo to keep that lead, but if Lipo cracks I would love to see Roglic take it to Onley and fight for that podium spot. I'm not sure he can though, Onley looked pretty good at the end of the day. All that said, I'm glad Roglic is riding well and safely. I think he'll be happy to get to Paris in any placing and get that finishing monkey off his back.
 
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Oldman

Jun 19, 2009
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Red Rick said:
He just seems to run empty during mountain stages and it's happening later and later on harder and harder mountain stages.

He'll be ready to fight for the podium next week.
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Today he was there but knew the stage was gone, couldn't beat Tadej or Jonas to the line so there really wasn't much point in chasing Onley for a few seconds with tomorrow coming. This climb preceded his horrible TT; giving Tadej the jersey. He has respect for the aftereffects when you overcommit and I'd say Onley went deeper today.
 
acm

acm

Mar 15, 2022
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He doesn't care about Onley and podium. Being 3rd, 4th or 5th in GC wouldn't change anything for him. He showed on ITT, Ventoux and today that he is still one of the best climbers (if in form). He wants a stage win and I hope he's going for it tomorrow.
 
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