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Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

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Only peak matters in this confrontation. So how do you rate peak Rog on the day, versus peak Pog and Vingo on the same day? And this holds true for the others as well. That's how you establish the heirarchy going into the Tour and hence team plans/roles. Whether or not things go to plan, however, is a different matter. The starting premise doesn't change.

Grand Tours have become about survival as much as watts, in that respect a team will always favor taking multiple top GC riders to the TdF. It means there really wouldn't be a hierarchy between Vingegaard & Rog in the first week or so unless one is far in front of the other. Jumbo would aim to keep both in contention.

The minutiae of the watts differences between their 'peaks' is contingent on so many variables (small knocks, sickness, stage profiles, weather etc.), i.e. when we're talking about riders with these types of 'peaks' a team will want both to perform & won't really care about the who is better than who at first.

It's not an exact science in any case. It never was.

I think Vinge's level in climbing last year is still underrated to this day. It's not that Roglic was bad, it was Jonas in the shape of his life.
His inconsistency happened multiple times unfortunately but he was saved by Kuss/Wout several times. One of the reasons why TJV is reluctant to give him full support at Tour is exactly this one, too many off days, a lot of times due to poor luck. Also Jonas kinda earned to fully defend his title. What Roglic has though is his fighting spirit and I think eventually that will pay off even in TdF.

I think Roglič has more than earned the right to go to the TdF as a protected rider alongside Vinge. A bit like G Thomas & TGH at the Giro.

If he has the form & mental desire to do the Tour, then there shouldn't be any problem. It also seems to be entirely his decision as well, which shows how much trust he has in the team & vice versa.
 
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I think the TDF situation is fairly simple. Roglič is arguably no longer in the top tier for the tour (which doesn't mean he can't win it if circumstances align to his favor). And that's not gonna change next year. If anything, due to age, next year the gap will be bigger rather than smaller. If he can recover, then his chances this year are as good as they get.

It's a simple decision - is he going to pursue TDF in the future or not? If he is and can recover from Giro in time, then why not this year.
Where can we see an example of this gap, that is getting bigger by next year?
Do we have any evidence of his performance being negatively affected by age so far?
We do have plenty of evidence, how hard it is to be on top level both in Giro and the Tour, specially if not planned in advance.
For Tour performance I would always bet on a year older Roglič with focus on Tour from winter compared to a Roglič with a Giro focus and win.

edit: I see you already responded to responses similar to mine, so you don't have to respond to this, but I won't delete it anway...
 
Grand Tours have become about survival as much as watts, in that respect a team will always favor taking multiple top GC riders to the TdF. It means there really wouldn't be a hierarchy between Vingegaard & Rog in the first week or so unless one is far in front of the other. Jumbo would aim to keep both in contention.

The minutiae of the watts differences between their 'peaks' is contingent on so many variables (small knocks, sickness, stage profiles, weather etc.), i.e. when we're talking about riders with these types of 'peaks' a team will want both to perform & won't really care about the who is better than who at first.

It's not an exact science in any case. It never was.



I think Roglič has more than earned the right to go to the TdF as a protected rider alongside Vinge. A bit like G Thomas & TGH at the Giro.

If he has the form & mental desire to do the Tour, then there shouldn't be any problem. It also seems to be entirely his decision as well, which shows how much trust he has in the team & vice versa.
But you can't plan "survival". Sh-it happens, like stray hay barrels or dogs. What matters, as far as a plan goes, is who has the best numbers. That's what they do nowadays. Their peaks are taken from rigorous assessments, after a long period of training at altitudine and then racing. This is why after the Dauphine last year Jumbo had to prioritize Vingo over Rog.

It's also clear that Rog was a valuable asset, a card to play in the arsenal of Jumbo's effort to dethrone Pog with Vingeggard. But it seems they, Jumbo, have gone all in this year for the Dane, having spent Roglic on winning the Giro. I don't think Primoz would fancy going to the Tour only as a domestique deluxe, so why bring him if you believe Jonas can win mano a mano against Pog? It creates unrest amongst the team. Or you think you need a backup plan, in case Vingo cracks. But still, how do you deploy Primoz if both are on fire? How do you satisfy ambitions if both can win. In the absence of misfortunes, then you have to go on the data of who is stronger and play to that strength.

If Rog goes to the Tour, it will be to win. But if he's not better than Vingo then problems arrise if both stay out of trouble, which I doubt Jumbo wants.
 
Regarding Suisse, if Remco goes, he should skip it. He is more rested and those TTs are in his favor. Roglic shouldn't jeopardize his prep for Vuelta if he is not #1 favorite.
I think he should skip regardless. But I agree with the point that the only good thing about Suisse would be completing the set of 7 and the entire point of riding it should be that it's farming simulator in a weak field.
 
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If I were Roglic I would go. I wouldnt wait a year.

A lot can happen over 21 days.

I think the posts above are referring to Suisse. I personally don't believe the rumors about his participation, i.e. it might have started as a casual "he could go" rumor & that became "he's going" according to that media outlet, or the organizers are just desperate for the Giro winner to participate because his presence means more exposure & $$$.

Regarding the Tour, I think it's a wait & see at the moment. I mean I really do think the team & the rider himself are going to wait a few weeks to see where he is in terms of form/motivation etc around mid-June before deciding one way or another.

There's also an evaluation of their current TdF line-up which will be conducted after the Dauphiné & Tour de Suisse anyway, just like last year when Dennis was shelved before the Tour.
 
I think the posts above are referring to Suisse. I personally don't believe the rumors about his participation, i.e. it might have started as a casual "he could go" rumor & that became "he's going" according to that media outlet, or the organizers are just desperate for the Giro winner to participate because his presence means more exposure & $$$.

Regarding the Tour, I think it's a wait & see at the moment. I mean I really do think the team & the rider himself are going to wait a few weeks to see where he is in terms of form/motivation etc around mid-June before deciding one way or another.

There's also an evaluation of their current TdF line-up which will be conducted after the Dauphiné & Tour de Suisse anyway, just like last year when Dennis was shelved before the Tour.

Not sure I buy the wait and see scenario. Seems to me he either goes all in for the Tour, which will involve meticulous micro-management in terms of his recovery and build-up; or he rests, spends time the family and then builds for later goals. Can he really say to his wife "I'm not going to see you for the next month because there's a 30% chance I might ride the Tour"?
 
Not sure I buy the wait and see scenario. Seems to me he either goes all in for the Tour, which will involve meticulous micro-management in terms of his recovery and build-up; or he rests, spends time the family and then builds for later goals. Can he really say to his wife "I'm not going to see you for the next month because there's a 30% chance I might ride the Tour"?

I won't speak on matters I have zero inside information about but adding up a basic 2+2 about Rog over the years (& reading stuff like Lora Klinc's book "Kilometer Zero"), I think there's no stereotypical 'family life' for Rog outside of his cycling life, on the contrary I think his family is absolutely 100% part of his cycling life & there's never a conflict of family versus cycling. Even when he's away, they're there whenever possible in the motorhome. They're his fans & they're everything for him & about him, basically.

So I don't think the stuff I read around the internet (like Rog needs to focus on family over cycling stuff right now) is an entirely accurate portrayal of the situation.

I think (again, just my impression based on the stories I've read & her book) his wife loves his cycling career & they're almost one person in that regard. So the scenario where he goes home, puts his feet up & does family stuff whilst potential Tour preparations take a backseat is probably not a realistic depiction of their household. I think it's cycling & family > everything else. It means just because he's with his family, it doesn't mean he's going to lose form or overlook the basics which could keep him in shape if he decides to do the Tour.

It's why he's always physically on point & in shape at the start of a season or in any race. He's a model pro & his family are part of that process.

Again, just my impression.
 
I think some people underestimate what it takes to win the Tour with Giro in legs (not some Giro but winning Giro so no rest days). Primoz managed to win the Vuelta with Tour 2020 in legs but it was difficult and he was going out of gas. And the level required to win the Tour is much higher (the highest in years). I do think that Primoz in absolute peak condition would have chances against Vinge and Pogacar but Giro in legs in far from optimal preparation (esp. when your chief rivals are fresh). The only winning possibility occurs when something happens to both Vinge and Pogacar (crash, illness, lapse of form, whatever) and even then it wouldn't be easy to beat the rest (because of the Giro, ofc).
 
I think some people underestimate what it takes to win the Tour with Giro in legs (not some Giro but winning Giro so no rest days). Primoz managed to win the Vuelta with Tour 2020 in legs but it was difficult and he was going out of gas. And the level required to win the Tour is much higher (the highest in years). I do think that Primoz in absolute peak condition would have chances against Vinge and Pogacar but Giro in legs in far from optimal preparation (esp. when your chief rivals are fresh). The only winning possibility occurs when something happens to both Vinge and Pogacar (crash, illness, lapse of form, whatever) and even then it wouldn't be easy to beat the rest (because of the Giro, ofc).

I think it's more a mental thing than a leg thing, i.e. despite the fact everything you posted is correct.

It means getting that one big win (the Giro) is usually followed by a mental decompression for most riders. In Rog's case, I do not expect this to be the situation at all.

If we learned from his 2021 season, it showed how a huge win (the Olympics) was followed by another huge win (the Vuelta) which was followed by Rog going wild in the Italian semi classics (Emilia & Turin)... & then finally running out of legs in Lombardia. But he really did push things deep & even his physiotherapist in an interview last year said he was basically out of control (or words to that effect).

Chris Horner said in one of his videos earlier this year that Rog could do a Giro-TdF double 'if' he comes out of the Giro with great form. Which he did. I think that might be the part that's potentially making them hesitate right now (Rog & his team), i.e. it's not like he had great form going into the Giro & slowly started to lose his legs at the end (like Bernal did in 2021), no, he raced into form in the Giro & peaked on stage 20.

Knowing this rider for years now, I can pretty much safely assume for example if he raced a one day mountainous race this weekend he'd absolutely obliterate the field. I have no doubt his form is amazing right now.
 
I think it's more a mental thing than a leg thing, i.e. despite the fact everything you posted is correct.

It means getting that one big win (the Giro) is usually followed by a mental decompression for most riders. In Rog's case, I do not expect this to be the situation at all.

If we learned from his 2021 season, it showed how a huge win (the Olympics) was followed by another huge win (the Vuelta) which was followed by Rog going wild in the Italian semi classics (Emilia & Turin)... & then finally running out of legs in Lombardia. But he really did push things deep & even his physiotherapist in an interview last year said he was basically out of control (or words to that effect).

Chris Horner said in one of his videos earlier this year that Rog could do a Giro-TdF double 'if' he comes out of the Giro with great form. Which he did. I think that might be the part that's potentially making them hesitate right now (Rog & his team), i.e. it's not like he had great form going into the Giro & slowly started to lose his legs at the end (like Bernal did in 2021), no, he raced into form in the Giro & peaked on stage 20.

Knowing this rider for years now, I can pretty much safely assume for example if he raced a one day mountainous race this weekend he'd absolutely obliterate the field. I have no doubt his form is amazing right now.

I think the perception that he raced into form at the Giro is influenced by his crash. He simply had to recover and his peak showed later (also they probably planned a watt bomb on that particular day, saving somewhat in the previous two stages). Let's remember that he already attacked Remco in week 1 on that steep, short climb. As for his form, obviously it's very good right now and will be like that for some time. But intense racing will make it exhaust at some point and there's nothing more intense than racing the Tour (esp. against the two mutants) with Giro in legs.
 
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A typo or there something afoot?

dakvpadma81b1.jpg
 
I think he should skip regardless. But I agree with the point that the only good thing about Suisse would be completing the set of 7 and the entire point of riding it should be that it's farming simulator in a weak field.
For Roglic Suisse is win or bust, 2nd place means nothing and actually screws his aura. Yes, he won 3 GCs but all of them came with very small margins.
 
Why is everyone dissing Tour de Suisse. At least it's not not filled with sprint trains ready to crash your GC riders at every stage possible, like in the TDF.
2 ITTs în 8 days is just stupid. Imo Suisse and Romandie lost a lot of prestige and they should unite into a bigger competition. Maybe even make a Grand Tour with Deutschland Tour. We have too many one week stage races nobody gives a ***.
 
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I won't speak on matters I have zero inside information about but adding up a basic 2+2 about Rog over the years (& reading stuff like Lora Klinc's book "Kilometer Zero"), I think there's no stereotypical 'family life' for Rog outside of his cycling life, on the contrary I think his family is absolutely 100% part of his cycling life & there's never a conflict of family versus cycling. Even when he's away, they're there whenever possible in the motorhome. They're his fans & they're everything for him & about him, basically.

So I don't think the stuff I read around the internet (like Rog needs to focus on family over cycling stuff right now) is an entirely accurate portrayal of the situation.

I think (again, just my impression based on the stories I've read & her book) his wife loves his cycling career & they're almost one person in that regard. So the scenario where he goes home, puts his feet up & does family stuff whilst potential Tour preparations take a backseat is probably not a realistic depiction of their household. I think it's cycling & family > everything else. It means just because he's with his family, it doesn't mean he's going to lose form or overlook the basics which could keep him in shape if he decides to do the Tour.

It's why he's always physically on point & in shape at the start of a season or in any race. He's a model pro & his family are part of that process.

Again, just my impression.
I think it's more a mental thing than a leg thing, i.e. despite the fact everything you posted is correct.

It means getting that one big win (the Giro) is usually followed by a mental decompression for most riders. In Rog's case, I do not expect this to be the situation at all.

If we learned from his 2021 season, it showed how a huge win (the Olympics) was followed by another huge win (the Vuelta) which was followed by Rog going wild in the Italian semi classics (Emilia & Turin)... & then finally running out of legs in Lombardia. But he really did push things deep & even his physiotherapist in an interview last year said he was basically out of control (or words to that effect).

Chris Horner said in one of his videos earlier this year that Rog could do a Giro-TdF double 'if' he comes out of the Giro with great form. Which he did. I think that might be the part that's potentially making them hesitate right now (Rog & his team), i.e. it's not like he had great form going into the Giro & slowly started to lose his legs at the end (like Bernal did in 2021), no, he raced into form in the Giro & peaked on stage 20.

Knowing this rider for years now, I can pretty much safely assume for example if he raced a one day mountainous race this weekend he'd absolutely obliterate the field. I have no doubt his form is amazing right now.
Between rehab and training, I can imagine Rog would want a short break for himself.

Jumbo don't seem very set on sending him to the Tour. There was an interview earlier with Merijn Zeeman where he admitted it's tempting send Roglic to the Tour now but he also implied it was a bad idea.

Rog is finally back in form and healthy. A diminished Tour de France bid sounds like a bad reason to burn him out.
 
I won't speak on matters I have zero inside information about but adding up a basic 2+2 about Rog over the years (& reading stuff like Lora Klinc's book "Kilometer Zero"), I think there's no stereotypical 'family life' for Rog outside of his cycling life, on the contrary I think his family is absolutely 100% part of his cycling life & there's never a conflict of family versus cycling. Even when he's away, they're there whenever possible in the motorhome. They're his fans & they're everything for him & about him, basically.

So I don't think the stuff I read around the internet (like Rog needs to focus on family over cycling stuff right now) is an entirely accurate portrayal of the situation.

I think (again, just my impression based on the stories I've read & her book) his wife loves his cycling career & they're almost one person in that regard. So the scenario where he goes home, puts his feet up & does family stuff whilst potential Tour preparations take a backseat is probably not a realistic depiction of their household. I think it's cycling & family > everything else. It means just because he's with his family, it doesn't mean he's going to lose form or overlook the basics which could keep him in shape if he decides to do the Tour.

It's why he's always physically on point & in shape at the start of a season or in any race. He's a model pro & his family are part of that process.

Again, just my impression.
I agree with you. The only reason I mentioned family and maybe why other people think this way is that he said at some that his family misses him as well (in addition to us, the fans).
But, in general, it is funny how cycling is maybe the only sport where we discuss the trade-off between sporting achievements and attempts and family life. Idk if rider overblow it or if it is a substantial thing (I believe it might be the latter with training camps and all).
 
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