Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[theyoungest]

I think the pressure on Roglic is definitely the biggest of any of these guys, after all Bora paid millions of euros to even get him there and they're basically banking their entire season on him doing well at the Tour. If Pogi or Vingegaard don't win the Tour, too bad, they've already won it twice, and they have 10 years to win another one.

But if anyone is able to deal with that kind of pressure, it's probably Roglic. As cool as they come.

 

[Oldermanish]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-38j5556rQ

Chris likes to hear himself chat it up. The drama, though; is a very imaginative forecasting.

 

[Oldermanish]

I think the pressure on Roglic is definitely the biggest of any of these guys, after all Bora paid millions of euros to even get him there and they're basically banking their entire season on him doing well at the Tour. If Pogi or Vingegaard don't win the Tour, too bad, they've already won it twice, and they have 10 years to win another one.

But if anyone is able to deal with that kind of pressure, it's probably Roglic. As cool as they come.

Pressure makes diamonds and Roglic asked for the leadership role. He's paid and hopefully his team is deep enough to help him.
That part is yet to be proven for both Primoz and Remco. The other two have serious help.

 

[Froome]

Pressure makes diamonds and Roglic asked for the leadership role. He's paid and hopefully his team is deep enough to help him.
That part is yet to be proven for both Primoz and Remco. The other two have serious help.

The question is if Remco and Roglic have the legs in the Tour to beat the reigning champion in the end of the decisive stages.

The teammates are important to help them being protected until the final decisions. The teammates need to be there, to make sure Roglic and Remco are out of trouble until the final decisions, but when they get to the final 7/8/10 km of plateau de beille, will be every man for himself. When they get to the final TT, it will be every man for himself.

Bora and Quick step have a very decent roster to do two good teams in the Tour. They have guys to protect Remco and Roglic in every terrain, it will not be a problem.

The race will be decided what leader will have the better legs, and stay out of trouble until the decisive stages.

 

[CyclistAbi]

For a couple of minutes, during a three week stage race, it's about an individual quality, the rest is team.

 

[sam6]

Roglic actually has got just as strong a team behind him as UAE and Visma. Jai Hindley won the Giro and would have been third in the Tour this year had it not been for crashes. He is Sepp Kuss and Adam Yates equal. Then he has Martinez and Vlasov who both probably could be top 10 if riding for themselves. Visma's third climber is Kruijswijk who is well past his best and hasn't done much these past few years. Kamna is also a good rider, just look at him dropping Carapaz in the Giro. Sobrero, Van Poppel and Denz are all good on flat and hills (although not as good as Visma's.) All 3 teams are equally strong I think and will come down to individually who is best. Unfortunately, Roglic is a small amount below the other 2 I think. Remco is a long way worse. I think his best chance is that Pogi and Jonas will just be looking at each other the whole time as their rivalry is so intense and Roglic can capitalize on this

 

[Froome]

For a couple of minutes, during a three week stage race, it's about an individual quality, the rest is team.

It should also be said that when the team in some days don't deliver, the leaders should take care of themselves. Sometimes it's impossible for a team to protect 100% of the time a rider from crashes or bad luck. A leader should also take care of himself, position yourself well, avoid crashes. That's why some riders crash a lot, other less, sometimes it's not just bad luck or a bad team behind them. Pogacar won the Tour 2020 without team.


It's not a couple of minutes, it's more than that if the Tour is raced the way Pogacar and vingegaard raced in 2022 and 2023.

 

[Froome]

Roglic actually has got just as strong a team behind him as UAE and Visma. Jai Hindley won the Giro and would have been third in the Tour this year had it not been for crashes. He is Sepp Kuss and Adam Yates equal. Then he has Martinez and Vlasov who both probably could be top 10 if riding for themselves. Visma's third climber is Kruijswijk who is well past his best and hasn't done much these past few years. Kamna is also a good rider, just look at him dropping Carapaz in the Giro. Sobrero, Van Poppel and Denz are all good on flat and hills (although not as good as Visma's.) All 3 teams are equally strong I think and will come down to individually who is best. Unfortunately, Roglic is a small amount below the other 2 I think. Remco is a long way worse. I think his best chance is that Pogi and Jonas will just be looking at each other the whole time as their rivalry is so intense and Roglic can capitalize on this

Agree 100% about Bora team, quick step also have a good team to protect Remco.
Landa will be there with the best 10 GC riders, van wilder will be close with them, they have masnada, hirt, knox,cattaneo.....lampaert and asgreen to protect him in the flat sections.

 

[Oldermanish]

Agree 100% about Bora team, quick step also have a good team to protect Remco.
Landa will be there with the best 10 GC riders, van wilder will be close with them, they have masnada, hirt, knox,cattaneo.....lampaert and asgreen to protect him in the flat sections.

I couldn't agree less on the assurances of a quality, responsive team. Visma and UAE have talent that has raced the Show together multiple times and have great, tactically selfless skills at key moments. They also know their personal and teammate limitations as well. That doesn't happen overnight or sometimes ever. Referencing the feats of individual strength each new teammate has displayed in the past demonstrates they had the ability to gain a result; largely on their own behalf and not a GC leader.
Kuss and Yates are anomalous in that they see the race and know how to go beyond what would be reasonable for their own results to achieve a team goal. They can also recover and come back from the Dead. Watching MvP in a fast finish train for his team sprinter is pure gold in that regard and brands him as an excellent Team Rider.

Based on that IMO its a wait and see situation on how Martinez and Vlasov see the distinction between good team effort and "opportunity" when Roglic is riding within himself to survive to the next aggression.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Pogacar won the Tour 2020 without team.

Pogi had JV.

It's not a couple of minutes, it's more than that if the Tour is raced the way Pogacar and vingegaard raced in 2022 and 2023.

They raced for it, the rest didn't really care, to win the overall.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Visma and UAE have talent that has raced the Show together multiple times and have great, tactically selfless skills at key moments.

Up to a point, as with UAE it will be the first time, to race the Tour together with so much talent. Visma hence is the most experienced one in this regard. Still lack of van Aert and some other changes in the team. Who knows on how will that affect Jonas. We'll see.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So if Rogla beats Jonas in races before the Tour. Is van Aert then going to the Tour?

 

[Froome]

So if Rogla beats Jonas in races before the Tour. Is van Aert then going to the Tour?

Nathan will be more missed than van aert. He was important to put Vingegaard out of trouble in the flat stages.

Vingegaard doesn't need van aert to drop an atomic watt bomb on Roglic like he did in the past Tours against others.

 

[Filippo_3467]

UAE and Jumbo will make the race and therefore they need top riders in every roster spot. I don't see Bora in that role and Roglic doesn't need that to win. He needs the team especially for protection in the flat stages, some problem solving in hectic situations and coverage of satellite rider moves by Jumbo/UAE. I think the team could be capable of that. Jungels and Kämna should be options too for the tour. So I think they could have a decent engine room to cover the second and third point. Roleurs for the flat is a questionmark. They need Denz and van Poppel to be really on point. Jungels could be also helpful in that as well he is very good at positioning.

But all in all the team is way worse when it comes to support then the two big teams. But that UAE team for the mountains is completely crazy no way to match that and Jumbo has riders in van Aert, Benoot, Jorgensen, van Baarle and Tratnik that are helpful on every terrain and you can't stop them from dominating the race in the break formation. Bora lost there only rider in that category to UAE this winter.

Nevertheless the team ist everything Roglic could have asked for as he gets all available quality riders to his side. That should be good enough to give him a shot. In the end he has to be able to follow the wheel when the action between Jumbo and UAE starts.

 

[Oldermanish]

UAE and Jumbo will make the race and therefore they need top riders in every roster spot. I don't see Bora in that role and Roglic doesn't need that to win. He needs the team especially for protection in the flat stages, some problem solving in hectic situations and coverage of satellite rider moves by Jumbo/UAE. I think the team could be capable of that. Jungels and Kämna should be options too for the tour. So I think they could have a decent engine room to cover the second and third point. Roleurs for the flat is a questionmark. They need Denz and van Poppel to be really on point. Jungels could be also helpful in that as well he is very good at positioning.

But all in all the team is way worse when it comes to support then the two big teams. But that UAE team for the mountains is completely crazy no way to match that and Jumbo has riders in van Aert, Benoot, Jorgensen, van Baarle and Tratnik that are helpful on every terrain and you can't stop them from dominating the race in the break formation. Bora lost there only rider in that category to UAE this winter.

Nevertheless the team ist everything Roglic could have asked for as he gets all available quality riders to his side. That should be good enough to give him a shot. In the end he has to be able to follow the wheel when the action between Jumbo and UAE starts.

To some extent Roglic can prosper in the spoiler role that earned Pogacar his first Tour. Let the big 2 slug it out and, if you can stay in the mix we'll have a great Tour. No assurance of the outcome but it would be great drama.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

To some extent Roglic can prosper in the spoiler role that earned Pogacar his first Tour. Let the big 2 slug it out and, if you can stay in the mix we'll have a great Tour. No assurance of the outcome but it would be great drama.

Yeah. Maybe Pog, having Giro in his legs and knowing he won't match Vingo for 3 weeks, will decide for some crazy attacks to tire out the Dane and Rogla will be the one to profit. I can't see any other scenario to beat Vingo - Pog, Remco and Rogla all have to ride against him (and not against each other).

 

[CyclistAbi]

Rogla can beat Jonas in a direct fight.

As for all three trying to crack Jonas. For Rogla and Pogi i would say that will be their main goal. For Remco i don't know. If the opportunity presents itself, then for sure Remco will take it. But somehow i feel that plan A, for Rogla, shouldn't include any reliance on Remco taking the fight to Jonas, Pogi on the other hand likely yes. Just not sure if like seen at the 2023 edition, likely not. Now lets say if early in the race, there would be an opportunity for Rogla, Pogi and Remco to TTT. Then, bar accidents, podium would already be reserved for them. But something like that is not all that likely to happen.

 

[Peter von]

Rogla can beat Jonas in a direct fight.

As for all three trying to crack Jonas. For Rogla and Pogi i would say that will be their main goal. For Remco i don't know. If the opportunity presents itself, then for sure Remco will take it. But somehow i feel that plan A, for Rogla, shouldn't include any reliance on Remco taking the fight to Jonas, Pogi on the other hand likely yes. Just not sure if like seen at the 2023 edition, likely not. Now lets say if early in the race, there would be an opportunity for Rogla, Pogi and Remco to TTT. Then, bar accidents, podium would already be reserved for them. But something like that is not all that likely to happen.

Can or can't?
because context might suggest you meant "can't".

It's often talked about but rarely realized these situations where multiple riders only ride against one clear favorite. Usually they can't help but try to protect their 2nd or they approach the race as if they might actually be the legit strongest.

I think they should at the very least be very committed to leave all the hard pulling to Visma, if they want a hard race make them work for it, I don't think chaos suits Vingegaard particularly well(other than strongest rider is always well suited to most situations). On a team level is where I see maybe they can find some common ground. Try to get Visma to sacrifice Kuss earlier than they are planning on.
If Pogi goes and Rogla has the legs he'll go after, trying to get Jonas to eat a bit more wind sure, but that's just racing. In their minds they still think there is a good chance they are the strongest, and if they didn't think that they wouldn't be any where near.

Maybe if Vingo flies off too early on some mountain stages, the trio/duo can work together to limit their losses and energy consumption, this probably works best if it's a duo since both can get a podium spot. But it's also too much of a Cycling manager 1 tactic to work IRL.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Can or can't?
because context might suggest you meant "can't".

Can.

It's often talked about but rarely realized these situations where multiple riders only ride against one clear favorite. Usually they can't help but try to protect their 2nd or they approach the race as if they might actually be the legit strongest.

Somehow i feel that, at least until in contention, Rogla, Pogi and Jonas will only race to win. Remco likely trying to get at least one in difficultly.

I think they should at the very least be very committed to leave all the hard pulling to Visma, if they want a hard race make them work for it, I don't think chaos suits Vingegaard particularly well(other than strongest rider is always well suited to most situations). On a team level is where I see maybe they can find some common ground. Try to get Visma to sacrifice Kuss earlier than they are planning on.

The pressure is surely on Visma due to Jonas being the defending champion.

If Pogi goes and Rogla has the legs he'll go after, trying to get Jonas to eat a bit more wind sure, but that's just racing. In their minds they still think there is a good chance they are the strongest, and if they didn't think that they wouldn't be any where near.

Rogla and Pogi could get aggressive and with few exchanges put Jonas in difficulty. Personally i feel that plan A should be for Jonas to be the initiator. And to try to make Jonas misfire once or twice.

Maybe if Vingo flies off too early on some mountain stages, the trio/duo can work together to limit their losses and energy consumption, this probably works best if it's a duo since both can get a podium spot. But it's also too much of a Cycling manager 1 tactic to work IRL.

This indeed makes more sense to me, Pogi might be too aggressive for that, though. Anyway, either case, Rogla must not lose time, going deep into the race, that will be the key. Bora playing a crucial role in supporting that.

 

[Froome]

Can.



Somehow i feel that, at least until in contention, Rogla, Pogi and Jonas will only race to win. Remco likely trying to get at least one in difficultly.



The pressure is surely on Visma due to Jonas being the defending champion.



Rogla and Pogi could get aggressive and with few exchanges put Jonas in difficulty. Personally i feel that plan A should be for Jonas to be the initiator. And to try to make Jonas misfire once or twice.



This indeed makes more sense to me, Pogi might be too aggressive for that, though. Anyway, either case, Rogla must not lose time, going deep into the race, that will be the key. Bora playing a crucial role in supporting that.

Certainly all the pressure is not on the guy with 34 years who never won the Tour, and in wich Bora will pay him 4.5 M salary this year, but on the guy who already who won the Tour 2x.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Froome

Rogla wanted to be under such pressure, that is at JV, but that was off the table. Now at Bora Rogla is even pressuring them into it. So i don't feel that Rogla is running away from such pressure.

Now if Jonas and Visma are really thinking in the way you wrote. We already won two ... If that is really the case, then they already lost. Personally i don't believe that. They have to win the Tour or the reality will hit hard.

 

[Froome]

Can.



Somehow i feel that, at least until in contention, Rogla, Pogi and Jonas will only race to win. Remco likely trying to get at least one in difficultly.



The pressure is surely on Visma due to Jonas being the defending champion.



Rogla and Pogi could get aggressive and with few exchanges put Jonas in difficulty. Personally i feel that plan A should be for Jonas to be the initiator. And to try to make Jonas misfire once or twice.



This indeed makes more sense to me, Pogi might be too aggressive for that, though. Anyway, either case, Rogla must not lose time, going deep into the race, that will be the key. Bora playing a crucial role in supporting that.

I didn't said that Visma and vingegaard doesn't have pressure for the Tour. Certainly they have.

I was saying they are not the only one with pressure to win the Tour. Bora and roglic also have as many as pressure as them to win the Tour.

You said "the pressure is surely on Visma due to jonas being the champion", things don't work like that. A rider that never won the Tour, with not many chances left to win the Tour, and a team investing a lot in him, also have the pressure to win the Tour.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I didn't said that Visma and vingegaard doesn't have pressure for the Tour. Certainly they have.

I was saying they are not the only one with pressure to win the Tour. Bora and roglic also have as many as pressure as them to win the Tour.

You said "the pressure is surely on Visma due to jonas being the champion", things don't work like that. A rider that never won the Tour, with not many chances left to win the Tour, and a team investing a lot in him, also have the pressure to win the Tour.

Yup, Rogla will likely have the biggest pressure of the Big4 (or on par with Vingo). It's Remco's debut and few expect him to win, Vingo and Pogacar are already multiple TdF champions and the latter will lower the pressure if he wins the Giro.

 

[Netserk]

I think Vingegaard has the greatest pressure _to win_ the Tour. It's much more of a failure for him if he ends up 2nd than it'd be for Rogla. His greatest pressure is to make it through and perform at his highest level. So it will be a success if he reaches his highest level in the Tour and avoids bad luck, even if that is not enough for the victory.

 

[theyoungest]

I think Vingegaard has the greatest pressure _to win_ the Tour. It's much more of a failure for him if he ends up 2nd than it'd be for Rogla. His greatest pressure is to make it through and perform at his highest level. So it will be a success if he reaches his highest level in the Tour and avoids bad luck, even if that is not enough for the victory.

Doesn't the same go for Vingegaard though? If he has his best level, but somehow the Tour win evades him, that's not really a failure. It would probably involve some bad luck, or someone who's simply stronger. Everyone keeps saying Pogacar is the best cyclist on earth and Vingegaard can only beat him because he focuses on the Tour... so if Pogacar then beats him it's only a confirmation of what everyone already thinks.