Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[cen]

Rog's usual way of winning is uphill sprinting for bonis and gaining extra time in TTs, then limiting the damage on some week 3 MTF when he usually has a not-so-good day pedalling for his dear life. Giving away 5 minutes does not fit this equation.

Then again, O'Connor's past performances are not very consistent so nothing is lost yet.

 

[bNator]

Rog's usual way of winning is uphill sprinting for bonis and gaining extra time in TTs, then limiting the damage on some week 3 MTF when he usually has a not-so-good day pedalling for his dear life. Giving away 5 minutes does not fit this equation.

Then again, O'Connor's past performances are not very consistent so nothing is lost yet.

Last year was a bit of an outlier for him, results-wise. Other than that, he's been consistently top tenning since 2021. This year is arguably his best season yet...

 

[dazaau]

O Connor was 2+ minutes down to Martinez in the Giro, and they didn't really race against him either. O Connor was outside the 10 best GC riders on multiple mountain stages and just didn't really get punished for that. He won't be able to afford that at all.

I don't think Roglic is that scared of attacking when he has great legs, like he was riding super confident on stage 4. And we saw in on Pandera in 2022.

So he lost to Martinez over 3 weeks by two minutes, but 5 minutes over 2 weeks is nothing to worry about?

Is certainly still a likely scenario Roglic wins, it's just a less likely scenario than it was 24hrs ago, due to poor tactics.

Movistar and UAE with even harder questions to answer to be honest, what were they thinking?!

 

[Rackham]

So he lost to Martinez over 3 weeks by two minutes, but 5 minutes over 2 weeks is nothing to worry about?

Is certainly still a likely scenario Roglic wins, it's just a less likely scenario than it was 24hrs ago, due to poor tactics.

Movistar and UAE with even harder questions to answer to be honest, what were they thinking?!

No one wanted to commit men into the chase because it'll be a hard, hot Vuelta.

I also suspect there's an overall sense in the peloton that Ben O'Connor in his second GT of the year is not something worth losing sleep over. Maybe it's a huge underestimation & they'll pay for it but honestly, this is the Vuelta. The main thing for me is the nature of the climbs doesn't really lend well to riding tempo & wheelsucking. When you hit double digits on these narrow sharp climbs, you get dropped. I can look at what's coming & see climbs all over this race where O'Connor is going to do exactly that.

The question then is how will he react? Especially when others lean on him & no one helps him chase. I assume he'll try to ride his own tempo because he has a decent buffer but minutes will eventually be handed out later in the race (or maybe even as early as Sunday).

 

[QueenStagiaire]

So he lost to Martinez over 3 weeks by two minutes, but 5 minutes over 2 weeks is nothing to worry about?

Roglič is much better than Dani Martinez.

 

[dazaau]

Roglič is much better than Dani Martinez.

I don't disagree. But he is not Pog or Jonas and if he has a typical wobble (like riding on after a minor crash) then it would obviously be very regrettable to have allowed this to happen. Ask Demi Vollering.

Having said that they timed it pretty well for the rest of the break away, I just don't think anyone expected that performance from O'Connor, and perhaps that, more than anything that happened, is what should worry them.

 

[tobydawq]

I've never really considered Samu to be a three or four time winner of that race, but perhaps I should.

I consider Valverde to be a double digit Grand Tour winner.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I consider Valverde to be a double digit Grand Tour winner.

Yeah, let's agree he won all GTs he ever started, apart from the 2009 Vuelta.

 

[tobydawq]

Yeah, let's agree he won all GTs he ever started, apart from the 2009 Vuelta.

Now I feel you're not being serious.

 

[cellardoor]

If Roglic is in Vuelta '21 sort of form and Ben O'Conner is slightly worse than the Giro (due to 2nd GT of the season) then it might be doable. But that's a big IF. All the talk leading up to the race was that Roglic had not been able to train much due to the injury and is still suffering from back pain. In such circumstances, I would expect more up-and-down performances or at least one bad day, which we have seen in the past when he didn't have ideal prep. That isn't going to be good enough to catch O''Conner unless he has a complete collapse, which seems unlikely.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Now I feel you're not being serious.

I wouldn't joke about that. Valverde being a 31 time GT winner sounds like hell to me, but if it made Samu get one Vuelta victory, I might be able to survive.

 

[tobydawq]

I wouldn't joke about that. Valverde being a 31 time GT winner sounds like hell to me, but if it made Samu get one Vuelta victory, I might be able to survive.

I think 2002 Vuelta, 2012 Tour, 2020 Tour, 2021 Tour, 2022 Giro and 2022 Vuelta might be a little farfetched.

 

[CyclistAbi]

"I understand that they had someone in front (Florian Lipowitz, ed.), but where is he now?" Almeida questions. "They may have handled that wrong too. In the end they had the red leader's jersey, but the pressure is now not only on them but on everyone". The Portuguese is not a fan of what happened and is aware that there is a new man to beat in this race.

"It's a big lead and it's not going to be easy to win it back. In the end, everyone did their part, so I don't know how he was able to keep it up so well. I think Ben just did a really good job, so I have to congratulate him on that too," he concludes. "The Tour is still long. It's going to be tough, but we have to work hard for it now".

João Almeida blasts BORA's tactics during explosive Vuelta day: "The pressure is now not only on them but on everyone"

A lot of the Vuelta a España peloton and pundits have looked at stage 6 and were left scratching their heads at Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe's tactics. Whilst there was an initial plan of taking Floria...

cyclinguptodate.com

So i guess there are some pros involved too, compared to Rogla waiting to be ambushed. We'll see.

 

[svit]

Why is now everyone acting like its the Bora's responsibility to keep gap small? Doesn't Almeida has his own team? Or Mas, or Landa or anyone with GC aspiration? Where are their teams and DS's?

Its easy to throw Bora under the train, but did they expect that Bora will do the job for everyone and that everyone should just save their teams?

 

[MLKarlos]

Well one thing is certain - Patxi Vila is done being DS for Bora. He's got Roglic, Denk and probably a couple of guys in Red Bull pissed off completely. His idea was to promote a second man (Lipowitz) as a GC threat but somehow, he's missed a very simple logic: If Lipowitz is unable to hold O'Connor then what good will he be as a GC threat when they have to try and pull O'Connor back for the rest of this Vuelta. And he's had couple of tens of kms time to figure that out and put his guys in front... It's not a plan gone wrong - it's being too stupid to adapt his plan once he saw Lipowitz is not strong enough which he's had plenty of time to do so.

The more I think about it, the more pissed I'm getting. How could he be so incredibly stupid? If stage 4 was just a bad day for O'Connor (and in such and extraordinary circumstances that's quite likely), they're never bringing him back...

Any sources or your own interpretation?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Wait, so now the pressure‘s on everyone and not just Bora and that‘s the reason Almeida thinks it was bad? I‘m sure Rogla will be so sad when he finds out that not only did he lose a bunch of time but Almeida as well.

 

[bNator]

Any sources or your own interpretation?

Absolutely none - it's pure speculation. Sorry, maybe I should have made it clearer...

I'm basing my opinion on the fact that he (Vila) was very quick to do media damage limitation which I assume was after he was told he f'ed up by others. If he felt he did something wrong during the stage, there was still plenty of time and ways to fix it. I doubt it just dawned on him right after the finish...

 

[CyclistAbi]

@svit

It's due to Rogla being in leaders jersey hence in theory it's their job to control the gap. Said that an IMHO other teams should have responded to riders like Florian not gaining any significant time, they chose not to.

Plan A, other teams, hence being do absolutely nothing and wait till the stage we will make our move. Considering Rogla likely being isolated relatively easily and considering a bad day can happen for everybody, Rogla IMHO wasn't in best place at this race. Team IMHO can't support him in leaders jersey for the whole three weeks.

So i feel the scenario that happened was only partially planned up front. They managed to give away the jersey, have Florian high in GC and other teams now must ride actively if they want to at least finish on the podium.

As for the dilemma if O'Connor gained too much time, or not, best to wait and see. If there would be no such dilemma involved, then other teams would still stick to plan A.

 

[Rackham]

I'm still going on my theory born out of stage 11 at the Lorian in the TdF, i.e. Rog has some good legs versus this bunch of riders.

"Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe didn't continue well. Even on the descents they took it easy, which allowed the leading group to gain even more time. I don't really understand that," Almeida said in an interview with The Cycling Podcast. "Bahrain Victorious then added two men and towards the end more teams helped, but in the end it all started with the fact that Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe let the gap get too big".

IMHO RBH did it all on purpose.

 

[Berniece]

RBH just reacted too slow. The moment Lipowitz was dropped by O'Connor, they should have started pacing in the peloton. They played chicken for too long and got punished due to it.

Still nothing is lost, it will just be difficult.

 

[bNator]

I'm still going on my theory born out of stage 11 at the Lorian in the TdF, i.e. Rog has some good legs versus this bunch of riders.



IMHO RBH did it all on purpose.

I agree they did it on purpose but there are two problems with that:
1. The consequence of their bad tactics will be no less severe whether they did it on purpose or not.
2. I'm afraid the purpose was not to take burden of leadership from Rogla's shoulder (knowing that Rogla is super strong and can get it back at will) but rather than that it was to put Lipowitz into the game.

 

[bNator]

RBH just reacted too slow. The moment Lipowitz was dropped by O'Connor, they should have started pacing in the peloton. They played chicken for too long and got punished due to it.

Still nothing is lost, it will just be difficult.

On the last climb, they still did not pull out their big guns. They could have brought one minute back then and there. A minute that Rogla would not have to bring back himself now. But they didn't. You know why? Lipowitz

 

[YavorD]

He is almost like me. I consider him the winner of 2020, 2021 and 2022 Tour.

And TdF 2024 is asterisked because of his crash.
But given he's won 3 of the last 4 Tours, I give him benefit of the doubt that he'd win this Tour as well, so he's 4 times Tour winner.
I give him benefit of the doubt for the Tour 2019 (and the Giro that year as well without the peeing brake) and he's actually the new Indurain, not the new Rominger as this thread was named long time ago.

Can we give him Vuelta 2022 as well (**** Wright) so he has 4-4-2?

 

[will-10]

The power of the CN forum asterisk is strong, even pro riders cannot escape it these days.

 

[Rackham]

I agree they did it on purpose but there are two problems with that:
1. The consequence of their bad tactics will be no less severe whether they did it on purpose or not.
2. I'm afraid the purpose was not to take burden of leadership from Rogla's shoulder (knowing that Rogla is super strong and can get it back at will) but rather than that it was to put Lipowitz into the game.

I think it quickly turned into a giant bluff in which the RBH car basically decided they were fine with O'Connor getting five minutes on Rog.

The reason I believe this is because they didn't once either A/Call Lipowitz back to work or B/put Vlasov & Martinez to work in the final km's, even to reduce the gap by 30 seconds.

Judging by Almeida's reaction (aka angry because UAE now has to do something), Bora got what they wanted.

On the last climb, they still did not pull out their big guns. They could have brought one minute back then and there. A minute that Rogla would not have to bring back himself now. But they didn't. You know why? Lipowitz

Lipowitz is a sideshow, not the main event.